21

[Edited on March 31, 2009 at 9:35 AM. Reason : 1000--sorry, not chit chat, i know]

3/31/2009 9:35:46 AM

picked up FAS again at 5.15 -- am contemplating a tight stop on it as we speak.

also looking to get into PZE if i can.


...also, as i was putting on my shoes and heading out the door at about 8:20 am, Nouriel Roubini was on CNBC, and they essentially got him to say the worst is pretty much over - he said the recovery could take a whil, things could still go wrong, and some banks still may need nationalization but that a depression has been avoided.



[Edited on March 31, 2009 at 9:48 AM. Reason : ...]

3/31/2009 9:35:54 AM

Quote :

"I agree completely. Yesterday I felt was a pretty safe bet because of the beating that was taken all day and the effort made to remain above resistance levels. i didn't go for it, though. it was just advice for Fail Boat. I cashed out of my C earlier in the day (looks to be a mistake as of right now) and am taking a breather for a while because that took out a lot of my capital."

I bought some covered calls I sold and as soon as FAS gets back to the 5.25-5.50 range I am getting out of it altogether and strictly only using it for day trading, especially with earnings season coming up.

Generally speaking, I think it's pretty shitty in the age of computers that futures are allowed to trade overnight, then once the pre-market opens, the market makers are allowed to set the price lower or higher depending on what happened in the futures markets. In normally function markets, this should generally be ok (except earnings and other surprises make stock prices behave the same way), but in this market, it's kinda shitty that you can end the day at one price, and then the futures trade all night and by the time you get a chance to trade again your 3x stock has gapped down 30%. With computers, if guy X wants to set a buy trigger at whatever price and seller Y wants to set his at whatever price, then it should fluctuate 24/7 based on futures or whatever.

Just ranting.

3/31/2009 9:47:53 AM

agreed & i think covered calls move should work

3/31/2009 9:49:50 AM

that FAS call from yesterday is looking pretty good right now.

you know, its funny. i'd say i'm about 75% on calls.

the funny things is a large part of the 25% at which i fail are ones where i actually put money in.

perhaps my trade is the straw that breaks the camels back, no?

3/31/2009 10:50:35 AM

I've had mixed success with both. I scribble down hypothetical trades and have found they work out about as well as the real ones I make.

The only thing I would have had a lot more success with (that I don't in my head hypothetically trade) is if I would have set some loose trailing stops and let trends run a little bit more. Typically, what happens is it moves the way I want it and I rather lock that decent profit than to risk losing some of it for a chance to snatch even more.

^ What I said yesterday about the RIFIN (480) and the S&P (800-805) still generally applies, I just assumed we'd get one of those retardo late day counter rallies to complete it rather than have it happen overnight.

But like ssjamind has said, its just pure gambling to try and hold the shit overnight because any sort of story against your position gives you a big loss before you have a chance to do anything about it.

[Edited on March 31, 2009 at 11:10 AM. Reason : .]

3/31/2009 11:08:14 AM

This is the last day of the quarter

This is the day that matters - the day that drives performance metrics!

Then you let everything crash tomorrow so that you can run it up again!

so i'm gonna be getting back in SRS at some point today

3/31/2009 12:36:35 PM

^ding ding ding

3/31/2009 12:39:50 PM

Finally, after first getting into the demon spawn that is FAS sometime back in early Feb, I just wiped my hands clean of the last of it at 5.50

3/31/2009 1:15:34 PM

how long can this thing run today? until 2 or 3pm?

3/31/2009 1:23:35 PM

Sideways unless nothing else newsworthy comes out before close.

It's sitting on major support. The 20ema is crossing the 50sma on the 15 minute chart. It will probably pull back a little to touch that, but ultimately I don't think it trends back down too much today.

3/31/2009 1:28:49 PM

would love to exit FAS today at 5.79


...also exited some long held INP & EWZ (each already monetized several times over on the way up). still holding some FNI that's in the red. EDC is now my emerging markets play.



[Edited on March 31, 2009 at 1:35 PM. Reason : ]

3/31/2009 1:33:43 PM

You might get there. I'm going to be dumb and do some more FAZ speculating with options, this time I'm buying May expirations though and deciding on a stop before I even enter.

3/31/2009 2:15:41 PM

yeah, i think thats a safe bet on setting a stop before you enter, but, truly, are you sure you want to do that?

You have M2M and profit earnings between now and then, just sounds like too much variable for me. However, large risk, large reward.

3/31/2009 2:30:29 PM

Eh. I pulled the windows up but I'm going to try and digest some more info for a week. I scribbled down the "hypothetical" trade.

I don't think M2M is going to have much of an impact. If the problem of having to mark the assets down could be solved by it, then I don't think Geithner would have launched such a massive "price discovery" program as he wouldn't have needed to. They could have claimed the capital reserves fine under this new M2M policy and the banks would be lending again. As such, there is still the pressing need to clear the banks of their toxic assets (and save the bondholders, ie, Timmies buddies), which gives birth to PPIP.

In regards to the earnings announcement, it's priced in off the March 9 lows as the three talking heads came out on consecutive days to say their earnings looked better than expected. At this point, they would have to really knock them out of the park, have little writedowns, and have good guidance going forward for that news to keep this rally going. I don't think we are there just yet. It might not hammer the markets, but I don't think we're going above 850 anytime soon.

Having said that, there is nothing about this government and Wall Streeters that will surprise me, so if I do take positions this time I'll be hedging so that big gap days don't blow past any sort of stop I might set. It really is the only way to keep from getting obliterated with these 3Xs that are held overnight. Lesson learned.

[Edited on March 31, 2009 at 2:45 PM. Reason : .]

3/31/2009 2:42:22 PM

fuck i lost track of time and forgot to put in an order for SRS.

trying after hours

meh

i think SRS will spike sharply soon.

3/31/2009 4:49:59 PM

^ me too -- didn't sell FAS in time.

3/31/2009 4:56:01 PM

my AH order was filled, picked up 144 shares of SRS @ 53.45

3/31/2009 7:31:17 PM

Looks like I was just plain too early on my Best Buy move

http://wallstnation.com/SHLD_03312009.html

Though I guess if the company really is run well (and it appears as such), they managed to get into good high margin areas in time to offset losses in other stuff (like TVs, etc).

3/31/2009 9:49:24 PM

am breaking my own rules - holding FAS overnight

3/31/2009 11:56:44 PM

ROFL, RIFIN down .25%, FAS up 2%

[Edited on April 1, 2009 at 10:10 AM. Reason : .]

4/1/2009 10:05:19 AM

Of all days to not go through with a premarket buy of FAS.

Fuck this market. I'm done. Someone send me a PM when shit returns to normal and I can focus on finding values rather than trying to figure out how this fickle bitch is going to react to economic data.

4/1/2009 10:40:20 AM

Will do.

4/1/2009 10:41:24 AM

^^ right now technicals are driving more than economic fundamentals. it is tricky...

still got my FAS. out at 5.97




[Edited on April 1, 2009 at 12:20 PM. Reason : ]

4/1/2009 11:59:43 AM

3% intraday swing on the S&P. I remember when 3% was an outlier, now, if the market doesn't move 2% it's a quiet day.

4/1/2009 2:09:00 PM

fas flirting with 6
wish it would just go hit it

4/1/2009 3:48:11 PM

it will.

at least in the AM.

things could change in the afternoon so i'm watching for that.


target price for FAZ is 17.80

4/1/2009 4:47:22 PM

FAZ near 17.00

im looking to jump in mid day.

4/2/2009 9:18:25 AM

yeah, i'm going for end of the day. if the market takes off all day today i don't want to start tomorrow in the hole, and if tomorrow happens to be an up day as well then i'll have that much less room to make up.

4/2/2009 9:21:12 AM

but do you really see the market staying up forever?

4/2/2009 9:39:04 AM

the market will fall back to near 770 on the S&P

4/2/2009 9:42:08 AM

^^ Yes, FOREVER. I'm joking.

Here is something I've been thinking about though. The DOW is a reflection of the 30 largest companies right? Eventually it will get back to +10k. If I am thinking long term is it wise to invest in a variant of these 30? Trying keep diverse when choosing, say, 5 to invest in.

[Edited on April 2, 2009 at 10:01 AM. Reason : gh]

4/2/2009 9:58:32 AM

picked up faz at 16.89

4/2/2009 10:11:17 AM

EDC working out well - might sell sold half and will get back in on a pull back

sold FAS early - oh well

[Edited on April 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM. Reason : ]

4/2/2009 10:41:00 AM

early today you did well... yesterday pre close not so well... I sold pre close and it sucks but i still made money so i cant complain

4/2/2009 11:02:35 AM

is FAZ a good buy right now? If so how long would you hold on to it? (kind of a noob, only light trading under my belt)

4/2/2009 11:04:31 AM

I got in right after opening today. will probably hold til it makes me 15 percent then bail out

4/2/2009 11:11:59 AM

should have bought some apple a month ago. dammmmit

4/2/2009 11:17:20 AM

guys, i suggest you take a look at EDC

(on the long and short side, although, i am not good at timing shorts so i stick to in and out of longs)

if emerging markets are going to be one of the leaders out of this downturn, its a good directional play. remember, its hard to pick absolute bottoms and tops, so have a piece-by-piece strategy



[Edited on April 2, 2009 at 11:50 AM. Reason : long & short]

4/2/2009 11:50:11 AM

SRS is a major buy right now at $47

4/2/2009 12:20:02 PM

Are today's gains still a result of the G20 announcements?

4/2/2009 12:28:54 PM

nah, the easing of mark to market + continuance of technicals-based bear market rally (which i think tops out somewhere above S&P 850)



[Edited on April 2, 2009 at 12:42 PM. Reason : ]

4/2/2009 12:42:21 PM

will pick up some IAU at these levels

4/2/2009 1:26:25 PM

I posted this in TSB, but maybe some of you guys don't look in there. For those of you thinking AIG will be a good buy long run, read this

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAstory.asp?tag=351




Ultimately, I still have a sliver of faith in the American people that this type of information will come to light and in due time AIG will be finished, however, I also have faith in the powers that run this country to do everything in their power to try and avoid just such a scenario. Best case for someone thinking of investing in AIG will be that the government tries to quietly carve out pieces and put the giant to sleep without much fanfare. Either way, if you are thinking of getting into AIG long term, you better be comfortable with the idea that this government will do everything in their power to keep the AIG fraud going. Are you safe with that bet?

4/2/2009 2:55:54 PM

Can anyone shed light on the Cree/Intel rumors. Would my CREE stock go down cause of it.

4/2/2009 3:49:48 PM

i haven't heard these rumors. can you please elaborate on what it is you heard so far, and if so i'll do some proper digging.

4/2/2009 3:51:39 PM

Time to sell some calls on SSO.

4/2/2009 3:55:11 PM

Quote :

"There's a $40 bid from Intel (INTC)"

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/INTC-volatility-CREE-options/index/a/21988/from/yahoo

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10480880/1/options-cree-call-buyers-emerge-on-rumors.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN

[Edited on April 2, 2009 at 4:30 PM. Reason : ]

4/2/2009 4:17:04 PM

any hints as to where the market will go today?

4/3/2009 10:17:05 AM

man, when i bought SRS the other day, it opened below my stop loss order.

now it's really fallen off a cliff.

i feel a burning soreness in the anus.



Or, i guess if you fuck enough frat groupies, one of them is bound to give you the clap.

4/3/2009 2:09:07 PM