1000 posts of pain

9/10/2011 11:43:34 AM

^Not if you are short. ^^ Kinda sorta not really, there are 1000 of ways to tweak the basic model, most firms have prop models super heavy on math, we have to sign in and out our handheld computers with the model on it.

9/10/2011 5:27:13 PM

BAC to lay off 30,000.

GS hits 52-week lows.

9/12/2011 2:42:14 PM

want to say that tomorrow will be a down day especially since its a Tuesday, but i'm seeing a short term inverse head & shoulders in the main indices.

9/12/2011 3:41:15 PM

I noticed the same thing last night looking at futures. We'll see.

9/12/2011 3:43:37 PM

Rally from 1130 to 1155 on news the chineese are rumored to buy Italian bonds. Does this noodle alliance happen? Like the last 10 china/euro rumors I'm going with no sell ya some 1155's.

9/12/2011 4:57:20 PM

We're about to have one of the most epic collapses in Europe in the history of the world and the equity market is acting like nothing's up.

It's laughable how clueless the stock market is. I can't look away for 5 minutes for fear I'll miss a chaotic tidbit and people are just acting like its another normal day in the neighborhood.

9/12/2011 6:42:28 PM

So why don't you have a massive SPY short on?

9/12/2011 6:59:19 PM

because we're going to get massive dollar debasement and i dont want to risk missing the timing or worse yet we get the debasement prior to the market reflecting reality.

We're in a liquidity crisis to the greatest degree right now. Cash (or short) would be the place to be if this was a normal world.

But since the government has already decided to destroy the currency it's just too risky to be anywhere but gold right now. I don't mind losing a little for a couple weeks because I know I'll gain it all back shortly when gold soars.

9/12/2011 7:41:16 PM

Quote :

"I noticed the same thing last night looking at futures. We'll see."

and

Quote :

"Rally from 1130 to 1155 on news the chineese are rumored to buy Italian bonds."

yup and yup

9/13/2011 1:37:26 AM

Does TWW have any kind of virtual stock exchange in place? Like a free stock market game/competition with play money? Something similar to http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/Homepage.aspx?

9/13/2011 7:29:48 AM

There was one on Simustock.com several years ago. I just logged in and it's still there:

Quote :

"1 WakeWolfpack $5,837.30 , 583.73% view positionsview orders 2 hondaguy ($105.30) , -10.53% view positionsview orders 3 Sru Daddy ($997.45) , -99.74% view positionsview orders 4 Skack ($205.00) , -20.50% view positionsview orders 5 keb ($393.27) , -39.33% view positionsview orders 6 Suprmn1020 $4,234,165.06 , 423,416.51% view positionsview orders 7 Picaflora ($62.24) , -6.22% view positionsview orders 8 ncsuemme $147.48 , 14.75% view positionsview orders 9 WillD ($94.20) , -9.42% view positionsview orders 10 statehockey8 $36.56 , 3.66% view positionsview orders 11 jrbrooks $38.05 , 3.80% view positionsview orders 12 synergizer $180.83 , 18.08% view positionsview orders 13 jt3 $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 14 brbehe $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 15 twolfpack3 $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 16 occamsrezr $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 17 tl $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 18 SoyMark $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 19 asberman $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 20 tanzarian $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 21 waffleninja $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 22 ssjamind $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 23 G $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 24 Mike_Easter $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 25 MarthaStewart $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 26 snuwpack $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 27 sarijoul $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 28 benz240 $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 29 forkgirl $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 30 NCSU337 ($269.10) , -26.91% view positionsview orders 31 jsncc587 ($409.00) , -40.90% view positionsview orders 32 ParksNrec ($177.50) , -17.75% view positionsview orders 33 jessicalois ($160.86) , -16.09% view positionsview orders 34 cotcmw ($349.45) , -34.94% view positionsview orders 35 NCSUrob ($232.00) , -23.20% view positionsview orders 36 chadwick ($360.25) , -36.02% view positionsview orders 37 mattncsu19 ($448.88) , -44.89% view positionsview orders 38 wlfpckjoe ($559.70) , -55.97% view positionsview orders 39 BobbyDigital ($940.75) , -94.08% view positionsview orders 40 sebastian ($698.00) , -69.80% view positionsview orders 41 DannyBoy ($578.65) , -57.86% view positionsview orders 42 jtcaldwe $0.00 , 0.00% view positionsview orders 43 wolfmantaxi ($762.40) , -76.24% view positionsview orders 44 PossumDog $261.20 , 26.12% view positionsview orders"

9/13/2011 10:17:11 AM

Can we start another one up somewhere?

9/13/2011 10:18:36 AM

Quote :

"Suprmn1020 $4,234,165.06 , 423,416.51%"

This guy needs to post more.

9/13/2011 1:09:30 PM

Haha. My thoughts exactly.

9/13/2011 1:44:47 PM

what the fuck did he buy?

9/13/2011 1:53:00 PM

On a side note, the CNBC million dollar portfolio thing starts next week.

9/13/2011 1:55:28 PM

Buying some spy puts for tomorrow's selloff

9/13/2011 3:04:20 PM

I sold futures and bought em back all today, Triple witching Fri am, expect wack shit.

9/13/2011 5:46:47 PM

Well these are dated for march 23 I believe so I've got some time.

Doubt Europe exists in 2012 but I wanted to give myself a few extra months in case

9/14/2011 1:28:27 PM

Bad day for Netflix! Everyone I know is buying up shares of Blockbuster right now. 7 cents a share!

9/19/2011 2:31:43 PM

you know what happens when you pick bottoms?

you get stinky fingers..

9/19/2011 7:42:55 PM

Anyone still holding GTAT? When is it supposed to hit 20 again?

9/20/2011 7:45:28 AM

soon... I hope...

9/21/2011 1:39:11 AM

Well...Operation Twist commence. Time for the Fed to buy some treasuries and MBSs. Risk on, bitches.

[Edited on September 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM. Reason : ]

9/21/2011 2:42:22 PM

Fed is trying to flatten the yield curve.

Wouldnt be surprised to see mortgage rates in the high 2%

9/21/2011 2:55:34 PM

It really is fascinating to watch the Global Depression unwind.

Today was another big step.

It's a little sadistic I guess but I just like watching people slowly realize how screwed we all are and see how they react. It's a giant game of survival of the fittest, or kinda like a short story that really focuses on the human condition.

The markets, the drama, the people, etc. its just beautiful in many ways.

2008 was so surreal to me that even though I was there on the lines it almost felt like an out of body experience. I couldn't fully comprehend what was happening. It was like watching a confusing movie while you're drunk.

Now, watching this its like watching your friend watch a movie that you've already seen. You know what's about to happen but you enjoy watching their reactions to the twists and the turns. You wonder when they'll figure out the puzzle. It really is remarkable.

Good luck to all of you. Even though I'm a dick on here sometimes I really do wish safety for all of you and your families. Be aware and warn the people you care about.

9/21/2011 7:41:56 PM

Apocalypse talk. Hey, crank it up again here in a few weeks so I'll know when to go long....the ole fade the rally play.

9/21/2011 9:24:11 PM

The stock market fell 90% in the last depression so being alert rather than snarky is probably worth your time.

9/21/2011 10:53:07 PM

But I thought everything was fine, turbo tax Timmy just told us last week everything was fine and there was zero chance of bad things.

9/22/2011 7:04:27 AM

How is the Gold trade working out for you this morning?

9/22/2011 7:27:29 AM

Is any trade working out today?

9/22/2011 7:43:02 AM

Gold is doing great and it isn't a trade its a store of value.

I hope it goes down so I can buy more before it shoots up.

Gold will go down in a liquidity crisis we know that. When the crisis is fought with currency devaluation that's when it will soar. I'm not going to risk trying to time it, that's too risky.

The puts I bought last week are doing great.

[Edited on September 22, 2011 at 9:14 AM. Reason : a]

9/22/2011 8:56:01 AM

Quote :

"The stock market fell 90% in the last depression so being alert rather than snarky is probably worth your time."

people have been predicting another "great depression" for the last 2 years, and it still hasn't happened, and won't happen.

9/22/2011 9:21:42 AM

Synthetic short I set up on EWP is doing very well.

9/22/2011 9:36:00 AM

^^ denial alert, denial alert.

The depression has already started wake up

9/22/2011 10:17:33 AM

I'm having a hard time waking up, since all of the endless fear mongering has bored me to sleep.

9/22/2011 10:29:31 AM

Day is done, gone the sun
From the lakes, from the hills, from the sky
All is well, safely rest
God is nigh

Thanks and praise for our days
Neath the sun, neath the stars, neath the sky
As we go, this we know
God is nigh

9/22/2011 11:25:27 AM

It's one thing to be skeptical of a "Mad Max"-esque scenario...it won't necessarily come to that. If you're optimistic, though, you need to have your head checked. This shit can only get worse before it gets better.

9/22/2011 12:02:36 PM

Oh, we're doing song lyrics again? It must be serious this time.

9/22/2011 12:54:30 PM

Yep.

9/22/2011 12:58:17 PM

I don't think the data is nearly as bad as you guys think it is (if you disagree, post some charts/data/whathaveyou). Sure, lots of toxic prices out there in housing not clearing through the system fast enough and sure the stock market may go down if the GreenspanBernanke put is taken away as it appears it has but over the past 2 years the rest of the economy has still been doing it's thing.

The only thing that could really cause turmoil is if the GOP gets their way and really starts slashing budgets.

9/22/2011 5:18:30 PM

What about the EU? You think that's accurately priced in?

9/22/2011 6:35:37 PM

A depression means that money is not getting to people to do productive work that generates a real return that increases the standard of living of people. Often, balance sheet and financial problems prevents this credit from getting to the right place (banks don't want to lend, businesses don't want to borrow).

If we are fine, then, we should be able to argue that businesses are taking advantage of credit to invest in productivity-increasing work. FWIW, I personally don't really see anyone doing that. Every one is cutting back, hunkering down, eschewing productive work for service work, and waiting for the economy to magically fix itself.

9/22/2011 7:30:56 PM

Quote :

"If we are fine, then, we should be able to argue that businesses are taking advantage of credit to invest in productivity-increasing work."

So you're arguing they aren't because you just observe it? What is it you do that gives you such excellent insight into the heart of a $14 trillion economy? I'll be surprised if there is really a good data set out there that breaks that out.

Quote :

"eschewing productive work for service work"

What does this even mean?

^^ Any price prediction doesn't mean anything without a time frame. Absent any big government interventions-and I think the US doesn't get one in the next 3 months, the EU, possibly will - I certainly see us probing lower. Another hysterical situation like '08 will take us down in the short term even harder. But people are forgetting that some of the bad debt has been purged, the banks have been gifted 2 years of easy profit, the businesses on the edge (like my former employer) went out of business, and the rest of the economy continued along for 2 years towards a recovery. Point being, in the very near term (counted in weeks) we're going to get another opportunity to get into some quality names for a good discount.

[Edited on September 22, 2011 at 10:21 PM. Reason : .]

9/22/2011 10:15:32 PM

Dude the banks didn't make shit in the last two years compared to what they are losing right now.

Did you not see the report yesterday?

Morgan Stanley's exposure to French banks alone is 60% greater than Their entire market cap

Debt is pricing in apocalypse, equities are pricing in a strong recovery. Can we really believe equities are correct for the first time since I don't know...... Ever?

9/23/2011 9:59:11 AM

Got in BLOAQ two days ago at 0.086 and is currently at .1530. They are making announcement today about a new streaming service

9/23/2011 11:41:46 AM

Wooooooooooo someone is getting shaken out today!!!

And this is why you don't buy gold and silver on margin. Too manipulated and too small of a market.

Adding to my position today , thanks for the liquidation sale !

9/23/2011 1:59:11 PM

Yeah, if you're buying gold/silver on margin you're getting killed/wiped out. Someone's liquidating, and you can bet that China/Asia is going to be loading up at these prices.

To the people buying physical, it's that time again: back the truck up and buy the fucking dip, at least on silver.

Just try going to a dealer and buying physical. The physical premium isn't going down.

[Edited on September 23, 2011 at 2:34 PM. Reason : ]

9/23/2011 2:33:30 PM

You have to crush the alternative while the fiat world is collapsing

9/23/2011 4:47:11 PM