Quote :

"This is the first game I've seen hansbrough play in the nba. He is so awful. I love it."

you would've loved him in game 3...his highlights were back-to-back travelling calls

5/24/2012 9:32:53 PM

I liked the consecutive blocked dunk attempts in this game.

5/24/2012 9:48:05 PM

Quote :

"Chi def Boston in 7. Very tough but Boston can't rebound and stiemsa and Allen injuries worry me. If they're okay ill prob take Boston instead. Miami def indy in 5. Duh. Clippers def Sas in 7. Tough one, but again I can't go against CP3 and deandre Jordan. They'll need help from griffin and one of their 10 Shitty SG needs to do something. But Sas is a much worse postseason roster than regular season one. Okc def Denver in 5. Harden, durant, and ibaka oh my!"

dont suck off rally's picks until you read his pre-playoff picks

why is he shitting on the bulls when he picked them to make the eastern finals??

and lol at the spurs losing to the clippers lolol

5/24/2012 9:49:05 PM

He's made several posts hedging all of his bets so that he is a genius no matter what.

5/24/2012 10:06:49 PM

Take a look at the betting lines he posted on page one.

If you had followed those bets, you would've made a whole lot of money.

5/24/2012 10:10:14 PM

^^^ c'mon

things happened

5/24/2012 10:12:09 PM

^^O I agree. My point on the last page was that picks didn't mean basketball knowledge. I'm not saying gambling isn't a skill either because it is.

5/24/2012 10:15:24 PM

^^^i'm just saying, I made one set of picks for the playoffs, before round 1 started...picked Spurs to win it all over the Celtics...I fucked up by picking the Lakers to beat the Thunder in 7, but its easy to look right when you change your picks each round...I'm sticking to my original picks

he knows his gambling, but he contradicts himself as well when he shits on the Bulls, yet picks them to make the Eastern Finals

5/24/2012 10:18:42 PM

I believe there is some sort of disease infecting all NBA centers this year.



[Edited on May 24, 2012 at 10:33 PM. Reason : A lot of these plays by Wade have been against 4 defenders. ]



[Edited on May 24, 2012 at 10:44 PM. Reason : Actually, every center has now been eliminated. Has to be some sort of record.] ]

5/24/2012 10:25:16 PM

is Donaghy officiating this game?

5/24/2012 10:40:36 PM

Quote :

"Iverson might be getting the crowd pumped up, but unless he suits up and plays, Philly isn't winning this game "

Just saw that.

Tree...you're a much better reaction poster. You do well when you watch and analyze...but your predictions suck. I think you get excited by trying to pick upsets. Lakers over thunder is much worse than the above quote...as well as the celtics making the finals. Don't turn into The E Man.

5/24/2012 11:31:53 PM

i obviously fudged up with the Iverson prediction, I didn't expect Allen to foul out

but keep sleeping on Doc Rivers, Rondo, Pierce, Allen, and Garnett, we'll see how that plays out

just like shoot will laugh at you when the Spurs beat OKC

here's an Eastern Finals question

lets say it goes 7 games

O/U of Rondo triple doubles, I'll put it at 1.5

Good luck Chalmers

[Edited on May 24, 2012 at 11:45 PM. Reason : 2.5 was a little unrealistic imo]

5/24/2012 11:35:57 PM

Just like monster game 6 rondo had? Big money on that series not getting to seven...probably not even seven. That's even if the celtics make the conference finals

5/24/2012 11:46:22 PM

you probably had the same "old team" thoughts about San Antonio that you do about Boston

Wade had a shitty game 3, Rondo had a shitty game 6, i guess they both suck

Rivers >>>>>>>>>>> Spoelstra

but hey, i'm just sticking firm to my predictions that i made before the playoffs even started, which you didn't even make

[Edited on May 24, 2012 at 11:48 PM. Reason : .]

5/24/2012 11:47:19 PM

Heat over Thunder in six...pretty sure I posted that. Although I'm a little worried about the thunder. If they keep it up, it will take an amazing series by the heat to beat them.

I had the Spurs in the conference finals because they had a cake road. Didn't expect the dominance...but thunder are a couple levels above who they've played so far. Wouldnt be surprised if the spurs won, but I'm sticking with okc.

5/25/2012 12:00:40 AM

ok actually you did post Heat over Thunder in 6, i overlooked it since you didn't post any predictions for the earlier series, which is fine

i think whoever wins the West wins it all, of course the Heat have looked a lot better the last 2 games than they did when they lost 2 straight games to the Pacers

but the Heat have had a cakewalk themselves thus far

and Westbrook hasn't faced a PG like Parker yet

5/25/2012 12:03:44 AM

There are a lot of reasons I initially picked the Clippers over Spurs in 7 and then quickly changed to Spurs in 4 after seeing the first round.

1) Before the playoffs began there were a lot of questions about the Spurs rotations. Obviously the Spurs added Diaw/Jackson very late in the season and the concern was that they didn't trust their youth in the postseason. Leonard, Green, and Splitter are all terrific players if their minutes disappear the Spurs become a lot worse very quickly. Diaw/Jackson have not been good players for the past several seasons (although they have played better since arriving in SA*) . The Spurs depth is also partially mitigated in the postseason (much like the Bulls) as rotations shorten so guys like Bonner and Blair who have a big impact in the regular season have minimal impact in the playoffs. Upon seeing that Popp was not going to reduce the minutes of Green/Leonard it was obvious this Spurs team is dangerous (although Splitter needs more minutes that Diaw is currently getting for an optimal lineup).

2) I believed the Clippers would be using a much more optimal rotation. I thought the minute allocation inside would be basically 120 minutes split between Jordan/Griffin/Evans. I thought Kenyon Martin would get some minutes at the 3 to replace an ineffective Caron Butler. I thought only one of Bledsoe (the best of the three), Mo Williams, and Nick Young (the worst of the three) would be on the court at the same time. Once Del Negro elected to play two of these together at the same time all bets were off.

3) I thought Chris Paul had been saving himself all year during the regular season. I expected his game to pick up significantly. Once I saw he was still legitimately struggling to play up to his potential (one of the top 3 players in the NBA) then it was obvious the Clippers weren't taking down the Spurs. The Griffin injury was just icing on the cake. The guy is a rebounding monster normally and he stopped rebounding.

4) This reason is minor compared to the first three but still has merit. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are old. They are babied a bit in the regular season (wisely) with reduced minute allocations, preventive benching on slight injuries, etc. The Spurs have such great depth that they can afford to do this without really losing much and still walking through most of the teams in the league. This is obviously not optimal against elite teams in the playoffs though. The chance of injury/fatigue with increased minutes may cause their play to suffer some. You saw how vulnerable the Spurs were last year without Ginobili.




* Since I know Tree will probably comment something to the effect of "Oh look at that these guys play better when they're on a better team" allow me to make a few additional related clarifications.

There is exceptionally strong statistical evidence that coaching makes almost no difference in the NBA. I believe this is somewhat intuitive as Paul Pierce obviously effects the outcome of the game a lot more than Doc Rivers does. Now, this isn't to say coaching is irrelevant. The scouting reports, defensive gameplanning, etc is all very important. However, given that there are only a few jobs in the NBA (as compared to college, HS, etc) and that they are compensated VERY well (high motivation to work hard) it's safe to say that most of the coaching staffs in the NBA are all very good at their jobs and there is a lot less skill variation between Rick Carlisle and Del Negro than there is between guys like Roy Williams and Sidney Lowe (or even worse think of the head coaches at the #330 best NCAA D1 team). Incompetent NBA coaches are few and far between as they usually get canned very quickly if they even land a job.

Having said all of that. There are two guys over the past 20 years who have shown consistent significant statistical differentiation from the collective group of NBA coaches at overachieving in player production. The studies are fairly complex but essentially they monitor a player's statistics when they change teams and monitor for their change in production. The names probably won't surprise you Phil Jackson and Greg Poppovich.




[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 3:58 AM. Reason : a]

5/25/2012 3:42:16 AM

Lebron is never going to get the attention and credit he deserves for that series because let's face it everyone expected them to cruise through Indiana and at this point all anyone cares about for his legacy is winning a title.

But let's take a quick look at what he just did just so we're all on the same page.

30 ppg on essentially 27 FGA per game (23.2 FGA + 8.5 FTA / 2 ). Thats very efficient scoring for someone shooting that often (OMG i bet he had to take some of those shots at the end of the shot clock, those shouldnt count!!!!!)

The other numbers are just staggering. Bear in mind this guy is a SMALL FORWARD, a position that typically doesn't collect a lot of rebounds or assists.

10.8 reb, 6.2 ast, 2.7 stl, 0.7 blk, 2.8 to, 0.8 PF

Let me put those numbers in quick perspective.

10.8 rebounds would rank #5 in the playoffs just ahead of Kevin Garnett (and Garnett has had the advantage of collecting all the bricks Philly has thrown up this series) and just 0.3 reb behind Andrew Bynum one of the best rebounding centers in the NBA. Lebron averaged 6.8 rebounds in the regular season, so he essentially just created an additional 4 possessions out of thin air for the Heat each game.

6.2 assists would rank #7 overall in the playoffs just ahead of Jason Kidd.

2.7 steals would have led the league in the regular season and is #2 just behind Kidd in the postseason. This is nearly a full steal above his regular season average (there's another possession he just added for the Heat).

0.8 PF. You kidding me? He got all those steals and nearly a block a game without even fouling? I know Lebron gets away with a few no calls every now and then due to his reputation, but this is an exceptionally low foul rate considering he's a terrific defender and was forced to play down low some with Bosh out.

For all the talk of whether he takes the last shot of the game its important to remember there are ~80 shots in an NBA game and they all count towards the Final score. It's not like the Heat are running a pick and roll with Norris Cole and Joel Anthony on the last shot. They have Wade who is one of the best "shot creators" in the game and they surround him with a lot of guys who are good perimeter shooters.

5/25/2012 4:47:06 AM

Quote :

"Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are old."

30 year old Parker = old

30 year old Wade = stud in his prime

the rest of that shit is way too tl;dr for this early in the morning

5/25/2012 7:13:29 AM

face...who ya got in Thunder/Spurs series?

I'm liking my Heat/Thunder prediction a lot better now that Wade and James are stepping it up. I wonder how likely it is that Bosh can get back to 100% in time for the Finals. If he does, they can definitely take OKC down. They might be the only team left that can stay in front of Harden/Westbrook/Durant.

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 8:06 AM. Reason : .]

5/25/2012 7:41:11 AM

Why do people claim that Lebron gets "no credit" for anything? I've heard tons of praise for his performance against the Pacers the past week, and, you know, that whole MVP trophy thing.

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 9:42 AM. Reason : ,]

5/25/2012 9:41:41 AM

How about the fact that he is frequently booed whenever he touches the ball at away games, and a lot of fans wish death and harsh injury upon him.

There is a difference between the charles barkley types and "people".

5/25/2012 11:35:46 AM

oh no, opposing fans boo him!

thats not even really true, i don't recall pacers fans booing him unless he drew a foul and they thought it was a questionable call

you make it sound like OKC booing Artest

Quote :

"There is exceptionally strong statistical evidence that coaching makes almost no difference in the NBA."

I agree, in college ball its about the coaching, in pro ball its about the players...I'm not talking about the coaching necessarily when I say thats why SJax and Diaw are playing better, I'm talking about the Spurs as an organization having a winning attitude where players want to give higher effort because they know it can produce results...you can't honestly tell me that you think somebody is going to give it their all night-in and night-out playing for a team like last year's Bobcats compared to a team like the Spurs, or Lakers, or Celtics, or Thunder, etc

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 11:44 AM. Reason : .]

5/25/2012 11:38:04 AM

^^ there's a difference between "being disliked by opposing fans" and "getting no credit" for being a great player.

look, I'll show you: I personally think Lebron is, by far, the most talented player in the NBA. And although I like Durant better, Lebron is the best player and deserved another MVP trophy this year. He is one of the top-5 scorers in the NBA, passers in the NBA, and defenders in the NBA. that shit is really hard to do.

That being said, I hope the Heat lose and hope he screws up another few 4th quarters in the process. (funny thing is, though, the more he plays alongside Wade the more I like him. Wade is such a baby on the court and generally has become an arrogant ass over the past 5 years. Having a true prima donna like that on his team has, as a contrast, made Lebron a little more likeable this year)

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 11:53 AM. Reason : .]

5/25/2012 11:47:15 AM

splitting hairs on that one

5/25/2012 11:58:05 AM

fair enough!

5/25/2012 12:03:53 PM

lebron does not get any credit, by and large, from the majority of casual fans, because they keep buying into the narrative that he is selfish, is not clutch, and a headcase.

perception/reality/blah blah blah i'm sure there's some sociology/psychology folks here who could fill in the necessary bullshit

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 12:34 PM. Reason : personally i fucking love lebron]

5/25/2012 12:33:30 PM

selfish? more like not selfish enough, ie standing in the corner during the 4th quarter, not wanting to take the big shot, etc

5/25/2012 12:38:16 PM

The "doesn't want to take the big shot" label is so ridiculous. Who cares?

Perimeter shooting is not Lebron's strength and most people don't want to just crash to the basket on the last shot because you won't get the call. If he draws the defense and kicks to an open man he gets ridiculed for passing and generating a good shot for his team.

Did Tim Duncan take all the big shots? Garnett? Webber? Jason Kidd? I don't understand the fascination with the "big shot". Especially since Kobe gets so much credit for taking the "big shot" when studies show he has one of the worst conversion rates in the league on "big shots". They nicknamed Chauncey Billups "Big Shot" and then he proceeded to miss the next ten years worth of "big shots" that he took. I mean wow what a misnomer.

Anyone can take a big shot. They could put Brian Scalabrine in to take the big shot. Taking a shot isn't impressive.

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 12:43 PM. Reason : a]

5/25/2012 12:42:08 PM

Quote :

"Did Tim Duncan take all the big shots? Garnett?"

is Lebron a 7-foot PF/C?

and Duncan made a huge shot, that just happened to be one-upped by Fisher

ps: Chauncey Billups has something that Lebron doesn't

5/25/2012 12:46:17 PM

I really thought that three pointer that Lebron hit in game 1 against the Magic a few years ago would be his "big shot" that marked the beginning of his dominance (kinda like the one Jordan hit over Ehlo). But damn, then the Magic whooped them the rest of that series.

Oh well, I agree it's all subjective. Good news for Lebron is that he'll have a chance I'm sure this year to make his mark. And with Bosh out, it really will be a helluva feat for them to win the title. People will respect that.

5/25/2012 12:58:31 PM

Oh, I didn't say these labels were accurate -- in fact, they are usually completely wrong. But it's just what you hear in your 5 second summations of Lebron on ESPN or wherever people get their info.

Same basic reason there are so many "informed" retards on both sides of political arguments, or an argument on any popular subject in our culture, really.

also, "selfish" more in the "Wanting to play with a bunch of superstars than stay in Cleveland" kind of way, not in regards to his play on the court.

5/25/2012 1:04:06 PM

did anybody dislike Lebron 2 years ago? from glancing through some old threads, i think mambagrl was the only one who did

its amazing what quitting on your team then making a spectacle about your free agency can do to your public perception

i'm more surprised at the people who still like him as a person

5/25/2012 1:18:54 PM

who gives a fuck?

jordan is a fucking DICK, and yet everybody loves him, because he was fucking awesome at basketball. lebron, too, is super fucking awesome.

5/25/2012 1:27:08 PM

i've never liked Jordan, he went to UNC, whats your point

5/25/2012 1:27:30 PM

okay sorry TT, I get you now.

[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 1:29 PM. Reason : thats just silly, i cant believe people don't like MJ]

5/25/2012 1:28:14 PM

i simply respect MJ's game more than Lebron's based on what they've each accomplished

although obviously Lebron still has many years to add to his legacy



[Edited on May 25, 2012 at 1:47 PM. Reason : pic]

5/25/2012 1:29:58 PM

Lebron can read?

5/25/2012 6:12:42 PM

Sad thing is he started that book during the lockout

5/25/2012 6:16:25 PM

^haha!

Charles in S.A.:

5/25/2012 11:36:38 PM

I liked the one with Dennis Scott on Shaq's shoulders.

5/25/2012 11:41:30 PM

Can somebody tell me why the networks don't always show pregame lineups and such? Why do they only show them for the big games? Seems like great tv and it has nothing to do with time because they always talk through it in the pregame studio. Baffles me but I'm thinking somebody has a simple answer to it.

5/26/2012 8:10:45 PM

rondo done fucked around...

5/26/2012 10:41:55 PM

just another triple double by Rondo, the most underrated superstar in the NBA

also, i picked 3/4 conference final teams, rally only picked 2/4

where is your god now

[Edited on May 26, 2012 at 11:06 PM. Reason : .]

5/26/2012 10:59:29 PM

10 minutes to tip-off in the de facto NBA Finals

5/27/2012 8:26:08 PM

I'm here. I got Spurs in 5 and Miami in 7 (really torn want to say Boston in 6, but just too worried about all the injuries).

Spurs just look great and Thunder have some serious weak links in Perkins and Fisher. After watching the Thunder struggle more than they should against the Lakers and factoring in that Westbrook should regress back to the mean this series this series doesn't appear to be as close as most people think it will be. The Spurs should be really heavy favorites here.

Miami - Boston is a tough series to call it should be close. I was just as close to picking Boston in 6 but I'm worried about Pierce's knee injury and it hurts a lot that they lost Bradley and Stiemsma is barely even playing anymore. Garnett and Rondo should have huge series but Lebron is on it right now. Celts did dominate in regular season though.



I'm going to win BIG this round.



SPURS - SERIES -200
(THUNDER - SERIES vrs SPURS - SERIES)
400/200

SPURS - SERIES -1½+130
(THUNDER - SERIES vrs SPURS - SERIES)
100/130

2011/2012 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP - ODDS TO WIN
SAN ANTONIO SPURS +175
200/350

OK CITY THUNDER VS SANT SPUR - EXACT SERIES RESULT
SPURS WIN 4-0 +1100
10/110

OK CITY THUNDER VS SANT SPUR - EXACT SERIES RESULT
SPURS WIN 4-1 +385
10/38

BOS CELTICS VS. MIA HEAT- EXACT SERIES RESULT
CELTICS WIN 4-0 +8500
35/2975

BOS CELTICS VS. MIA HEAT- EXACT SERIES RESULT
CELTICS WIN 4-1 +4500
66/2970

BOS CELTICS VS. MIA HEAT- EXACT SERIES RESULT
CELTICS WIN 4-2 +1800
166/2988

BOS CELTICS VS. MIA HEAT- EXACT SERIES RESULT
CELTICS WIN 4-3 +2200
136/2992

MIA HEAT -425 (game 1)
425/100

HEAT - SERIES -550
(CELTICS - SERIES vrs HEAT - SERIES)
1,100/200



Arbitrage!

[Edited on May 27, 2012 at 8:34 PM. Reason : a]

5/27/2012 8:26:41 PM

from Thunder over Clippers in 7 to Spurs over Thunder in 5?

well i hope you win

5/27/2012 8:32:18 PM

I will.

5/27/2012 9:05:48 PM

Looking at the heat-celts bet, why didn't you bet 2200 on the heat winning the series. The way I see it, you would have had 400 to win ~2975 on the celtics and 2200 to win 400 on the heat. A free 375 if the celts win.

5/27/2012 9:15:02 PM

Feel pretty good. Spurs can't play any worse than that and only down 1.

Popp apparently wants them to push the pace, probably because they're deeper than OKC and he played their bench a lot in the first half.

Well, one thing is for sure. That's the wrong strategy. OKC is young and much more athletic. The Spurs weren't able to play efficiently at a fast pace against them. They average 13 turnovers a game and they already have 13 at halftime.

Limit their turnovers to normal levels and this would have the makings of a blowout right now.





^ Because Heat -550 is absurdly high. Yes, I could have won guaranteed money with a full arbitrage, but I'm still giving up a lot of value. The lines are going to be lower on each individual game (see: heat -425 in game 1) so I'll hedge the other half of my exposure by taking the Heat in individual games. Ideally, you could do this each game and not bet the -550 at all, but then you open yourself up to other risk factors like injuries/suspensions.

Anyway, Heat -550 is silly, I was tempted to just let all the Boston bets ride and not even hedge off the other way, but sometimes reducing variance is worth giving up a little of your alpha.

[Edited on May 27, 2012 at 9:43 PM. Reason : a]

5/27/2012 9:37:51 PM