its one thing to overpay for Deangelo, its a completely different discussion to have ADP or Foster

lets wait and see how far Houston and Minnesota go in the playoffs before we completely say top-tier halfbacks are worthless compared to quarterbackers

besides, I still think a good defense is better than a star QB, and giants and steelers super bowls agree with me

12/30/2012 9:21:02 PM

A good defense is absolutely worth more than a good QB but it also costs a hell of a lot more.

A good QB is $15-$20MM.

I'd like to see a team trot out a good defense for less than double that.

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 9:23 PM. Reason : a]

12/30/2012 9:22:42 PM

is morris really a better running back than clinton portis was? this surprises me

12/30/2012 9:32:21 PM

Alfred Morris is just the perfect example. You get a guy back there who cost nothing who will give you 90% of the production AP gives you.

The difference in their DYAR is 200 yards. Thats approximately 16 yards per game. That's not nothing, but it's certainly not a $11M difference.

Talk to me about the difference between starting a $500k DE that can't rush the passer vs having JJ Watt.

AND THATS HOW YOU DEBATE

12/30/2012 9:34:56 PM

When Morris strings together 6-7 seasons of similar to this one (like AP has) he'll be demanding a huge contract too.

Unless you can score in the draft and keep a cycle of rookie contract quality RBs, it's worth it to pay money for a known commodity

This argument is dumb

12/30/2012 9:38:45 PM

Martin got around 2000 yards from scrimmage

he makes about $300K

12/30/2012 9:41:25 PM

Pay an 11$ million dollar premium because you are too risk averse or lazy to acquire late round rbs and figure out which one will be 90% of AP

12/30/2012 9:43:49 PM

90% of AP is over 1800 rushing yards this year

remind me which back sniffed that number

12/30/2012 9:44:52 PM

yards is a counting statistic, it's not a legitimate stat to use to evaluate productivity.

It's like talking about RBI's in a vacuum.




It's freaking easy to get a good RB in the draft. All you need is a guy who is athletic, has size or skill, and doesn't fumble frequently. Teams get great ones in the draft every year. RB's don't "bust" very often.

Teams "reach" in the draft for QB's and DE's. Positions that matter. RB's slide every year because no one actually needs them.

When legitimate, 100% guaranteed studs like Peterson and Richardson come out they don't go #1 in the draft because they are RB's.

When QB's with huge question marks come out they still go extremely high. Jamarcus Russell, Cam Newton, Alex Smith... none of those guys were considered slam dunks by anyone. QB is just that valuable.

Quote :

"Unless you can score in the draft and keep a cycle of rookie contract quality RBs, it's worth it to pay money for a known commodity This argument is dumb"

No, it's absolutely not. They'd be smart to let Morris go when he wants more money and then get someone else.

Maurice Jones Drew had an absolutely amazing year last year and he makes less than $5 million a year. When he held out for more money Jacksonville said fuck no. And that was smart on their part because now look.


Strategy is important in life. Sometimes I wonder how you people function in life with no cognitive abilities.

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 9:53 PM. Reason : a]

12/30/2012 9:49:31 PM

again, nobody (that i know of) is saying RB is a more valuable position than QB

just that a player like ADP is better than any player on his team, including his QB, Ponder, and that ADP is THE reason his team is in the playoffs this year

Peterson isn't some average back that gets picked in the top-10 of the draft, he's an elite Walter Payton / Jim Brown / Gayle Sayers type back...those guys don't grow on trees

Quote :

"Jacksonville said fuck no. And that was smart on their part because now look"

yeah, now look at how they went 2-14 because of the contract dispute that prevented MJD from getting into game shape, they went 2-14, they showed him who is boss

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 9:55 PM. Reason : .]

12/30/2012 9:54:33 PM

Yes I will agree he is one of the best RB's of all-time. Absolutely.

I love watching him play. He's not one of the most valuable players in the league though, period.

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are infinitely more valuable than Adrian Peterson.

JJ Watt is significantly more valuable than Peterson.

Calvin Johnson is slightly more valuable than Peterson.

I can't prove it mathematically but I can almost guarantee Aldon Smith, Von Miller are more valuable than Adrian Peterson.

Several CB's as well.


RB's is just a very unimportant position in the NFL. It's like owning the nicest coffee maker on the block. Sure that coffee maker is fucking amazing. But your neighbor has a $30 coffee maker that adequately makes coffee. You need a Ferrari to impress anyone, not a $400 coffee maker.

12/30/2012 9:59:30 PM

Quote :

"Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are infinitely more valuable than Adrian Peterson."

aka, 3 different models of Lamborghini are more valuable than an F-40 Ferrari

when you have to bring out the best 3 QBs in the league to prove that ADP isn't as valuable, you're admitting he is insanely valuable

and guys like Megatron aren't valuable if you don't have a QB who can get them the ball...guys like Revis aren't valuable if your QB isn't throwing to their side...every team the Vikings have played this year KNOW that they're giving the ball to Peterson, and he still burns them

plus, speaking of JJ Watt, who is the undisputed defensive player of the year...the Vikings beat Houston by 3 scores a week ago...so...

12/30/2012 10:03:00 PM

No, Adrian Peterson is not "insanely valuable".

He is valuable. He gives you an edge over every team in the league at the running back position. It's just not nearly the same edge you get by having Tom Brady at QB. It's not even remotely close.


Adrian Peterson went 2-14 last year. Do you think it's possible for a team with Tom Brady at QB to win 2 games?

If you're interested, studies suggest that an elite QB is worth approximately 4 wins per season. As in, take an 8-8 team and throw Tom Brady on it and they are a 12-4 team.

Intuitively, this makes sense. Look at Denver, they were a completely average 8-8 type team last year and now they are an elite 12-13 win type team with Peyton Manning.


Keeping Tim Tebow and replacing McGahee with Peterson would not have made Denver an elite team.

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 10:07 PM. Reason : a]

12/30/2012 10:04:51 PM

he's not as valuable as Brady, Manning, Rodgers

he's more valuable than just about every other QB in the league though

Quote :

"Do you think it's possible for a team with Tom Brady at QB to win 2 games?"

not sure...Brady has never played under Leslie Frazier with Percy Harvin as his only receiving threat, who got injured halfway through the season

but again, Brady is one of the elite QBs all time...its not like there are Bradys all over the place to outweigh Petersons

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 10:10 PM. Reason : .]

12/30/2012 10:05:54 PM

We're talking about the MVP award. Why should it not go to Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?

Adrian Peterson is a beast, but the simple fact remains that he is a beast at a position of relative unimportance.

The janitor shouldn't get employee of the year because he's slightly more efficient at unclogging toilets after a monkey dump. The guy in upper management who saved $10MM in overhead costs by re-designing their inventory system is still more valuable.

12/30/2012 10:14:06 PM

i can't feel your analogies

nobody is saying that Danny Woodhead or Darren McFadden should be MVP

we're talking about somebody who rushed for 2000+ yards to lead a shitty team to a playoff berth

you keep bringing up Brady, Peyton and Rodgers as being more valuable...well Peterson is a lot more valuable than Schaub, Ryan, etc

Quote :

"We're talking about the MVP award. Why should it not go to Tom Brady "

your main man Matt Cassell went 11-5 one year...maybe the MVP should just go to Bill Belichik every year?

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 10:18 PM. Reason : .]

12/30/2012 10:17:18 PM

we can all agree that the Vikings would be a 2 or 3 win team if they didn't have him

imagine Toby and his 400 yards and 12 fumbles

12/30/2012 10:21:16 PM

God watching RGIII makes my whole body numb.

I been listening to Perfect Circle - 3 Libras on repeat since 1 PM today just so I wouldnt be disappointed when i lost my fantasy championship and my $1,000 Drew Brees lead league in passing yards bet.

I am immune to feelings right now. 2013 is going to be a good fucking year.

12/30/2012 10:25:37 PM

what's Dan LeFevour up to? damn he was fucking good in college

12/30/2012 10:36:39 PM

HERE I AM EXPECTING JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH FROM THE WOUNDED.

BUT I SEE, SEE THROUGH IT ALL, SEE THROUGH, SEE RGIII

YOU KNOW YOU KNOW YOU KNOW RGIII

YOU KNOW YOU KNOW YOU KNOW RGIII



(okay alfred morris just won me the title, but Id still go gay for RGIII)

[Edited on December 30, 2012 at 10:43 PM. Reason : a]

12/30/2012 10:42:41 PM

Demarcus Ware the fuck are you going?

12/30/2012 10:47:56 PM

He looks lost tonight

12/30/2012 10:49:13 PM

not only did i win a small $600 fantasy title on that run, but i had like $50 on cowboys under 8.5 wins.

Just won a car payment on that shit. Plus the $1k for Brees leading league in passing. 2013 could possibly be the year I win my first million

12/30/2012 10:50:51 PM

do you feel proud of yourself, posting made up bets you didn't make because all you have is alias laftabucks?

12/30/2012 10:56:24 PM

Jason has me warming up. Guess I'm going in at receiver.

12/30/2012 11:00:44 PM

I cant wait for the packers to crush the falcons.....the seahawks @packers in a nfc championship/redemption game

The media would jizz their pants over that

12/30/2012 11:42:00 PM

^They won't have any jizz left after "RW vs RGIII"

12/31/2012 3:10:52 AM

^^^^ wow, what a hater. Not going to get you anywhere in life brosef. Not like i didnt post them prior to the season douche.

I was off by $100, I thought it was +500. Check out the photo in my gallery and suck my dick.


Ive got some advice for you little buddy. Before you point your finger you should know that Im the man.



[Edited on December 31, 2012 at 3:31 AM. Reason : a]

12/31/2012 3:13:05 AM

errbody gettin fired today

Andy Reid
Romeo Crennel
Mike Tannenbaum
Chan Gailey
Pat Shurmer & Tom Heckert
Gene Smith
Norv Turner & AJ Smith
Lovie Smith


(so far)

[Edited on December 31, 2012 at 11:02 AM. Reason : ]

12/31/2012 11:00:40 AM

I'm actually pissed that Lovie got canned. Who the fuck are we going to get?

It wasn't Lovie, it was douchebag Cutler

12/31/2012 11:06:43 AM

nevermind. I see they're going to offer Brian Kelly immediately following the Bama game

12/31/2012 11:12:48 AM

them & 5 other teams

12/31/2012 11:14:06 AM

Chicago is a ND town. They'll throw the bank at Kelly

12/31/2012 11:18:36 AM

sup, face

Quote :

"MVPeterson The more noticeable improvement, of course, doesn't require advanced metrics; eyes will do just fine. It's not just that Adrian Peterson has returned from a devastating knee injury at 100 percent; it's that he's returned from that devastating knee injury and somehow turned into a far better player than he was before the injury even happened. Four weeks ago, Peterson seemed like a dark horse in the MVP race whose best hope would come from the league's quarterbacks splitting the passer vote, but Peterson's final quarter of the season saw him come on strong and all but lock up the MVP award with a heroic performance in what amounted to a playoff game for the Vikings. I am normally loath to suggest that a lowly running back has enough of an impact on his team's performance to justify being the league MVP, but this version of Peterson is no mere mortal running back. After four years of averaging between 4.4 and 4.8 yards per carry, Peterson put up one of the most incredible seasons a running back has ever produced, averaging a full 6.0 yards per pop across his 348 carries. Barry Sanders is the only back since 1990 to average more yards per carry in a 300-rush season than Peterson did this past year, and he did so by a mere one-tenth of one yard per carry, a difference of about two extra yards per game. Even that doesn't truly express how rare Peterson's performance was, though. There are 158 instances of a running back carrying the ball 300 times or more in a season since 1990. Those backs averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Peterson's figure of 6.0 yards per run is 3.1 standard deviations above the mean; it's a true statistical outlier, a stunningly rare occurrence amid players with this sort of workload. To try to put that into context, consider that there have been 197 instances since 1990 of a quarterback throwing 500 passes in a given season. A player with a workload3 for quarterbacks very similar to that of Peterson for running backs, coincidentally, is this year's edition of Peyton Manning. Manning has thrown 583 passes this year while averaging a robust 8.0 yards per pass attempt. That, however, is just 1.2 standard deviations above the mean yards-per-attempt figure posted by the average quarterback with 500 passes or more. If Manning was producing yards at a similar level to Peterson — 3.1 standard deviations above the mean in terms of yards per attempt — he would be averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. And if Peyton Manning was averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt this year with the same workload, he would have 5,421 passing yards, which would be enough to place him just behind Drew Brees's 2011 season on the all-time leaderboard for passing yards in a season. In short and without math: Adrian Peterson is playing at a level so much better than the average workhorse running back that you simply have to give him the MVP award."

and that's from Barnwell

12/31/2012 11:50:40 AM

And I've already showed why none of that really matters that much.

Are we really talking about standard deviations? What if some punters net punting average was 3 standard deviations above normal, would he also be in the mvp race?

12/31/2012 12:05:25 PM

Quote :

"and that's from Barnwell"

12/31/2012 12:05:35 PM

Black coaches get fired errwhere

12/31/2012 1:38:35 PM

Not Marvin Lewis! It amazes me what they're doing in Cincinnati. Even if they'll probably lose their first playoff game again, those guys are very competitive and could even have an eye on that division next season.

12/31/2012 2:04:12 PM

Quote :

"Team officials estimated that by the time all of the firings are done, over half of NFL teams could experience turnover. No matter what happens from this point, this will end up being one of the bloodiest days, weeks and months for general managers and coaches in recent league history. ... The name Russell Wilson was pointed to on Monday as a grand example of why so many people got fired so quickly. Owners in places like Cleveland and Jacksonville may have been asking why didn't their franchises discover Wilson, who was the 12th pick in the third round? And how is it that a franchise like Seattle can develop him so quickly and our franchise cannot?"

Blaming wilson

12/31/2012 3:25:53 PM

Quote :

"Intuitively, this makes sense. Look at Denver, they were a completely average 8-8 type team last year and now they are an elite 12-13 win type team with Peyton Manning. Keeping Tim Tebow and replacing McGahee with Peterson would not have made Denver an elite team."

12/31/2012 9:36:10 PM

Andy Reid to Arizona

1/1/2013 4:47:58 PM

in that case, Lovie to the Bills?

1/1/2013 4:53:43 PM

Kevin Kolb will be a fantasy option next year...cant wait to see that offense flourish under Reid.

Especially if they keep the defensive guys on staff they have now.

1/1/2013 4:57:35 PM

no fucking chance until they replace 3-4 of their starting OL

their OL was probably the worst in the league

1/1/2013 4:59:47 PM

its really not the O line that was the issue, they had horrific QB play and offensively had a lot of injuries.

KC and Philly had by far the worst Lines.

Im excited to see a Reid led Cardinals team. If they can get a good GM in there as well I'll be pleased so we actually draft decent.

I can see Wisenhunt coaching elsewhere too. Maybe Cleveland

1/1/2013 5:09:31 PM

Are you kidding me? How many Eagles/chiefs/cardinals games did you watch?

Cardinals OL was the worst by far and its not even close

1/1/2013 5:11:42 PM

Here are some stats to back me up:

32nd in run blocking, 26th in pass blocking

By far the worst

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Look at the second and 3rd tables, ARI is dead last there too

[Edited on January 1, 2013 at 5:19 PM. Reason : .]

1/1/2013 5:17:39 PM

Im a cardinals fan. I watched every game.

In QB hits they are 4th.

In Sacks they are 1st with Green Bay 2nd, so thats not a telling stat.
.

they arent good, but they had terrible QB play...thats why Arizona sucked. The offense they were running was built around power running...which we did not have at ALL.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_RIGHT_POWER&qualified=true

[Edited on January 1, 2013 at 5:19 PM. Reason : source]

[Edited on January 1, 2013 at 5:20 PM. Reason : f]

1/1/2013 5:19:29 PM

Quote :

"their OL was probably the worst in the league"

andy reid has one hell of a sweaty boner right now



hell yeah i'm gonna draft a fuckton of linemen

1/1/2013 5:27:39 PM

Ahahahahaha

1/1/2013 5:29:43 PM