Quote :

"Months of detailed coverage into the many trumps crimes, with Trump given frequent unscripted, unhinged rants in response against the wishes of his advisors would be a big win"

Haven't we had years of that already?

6/2/2019 6:51:58 PM

No, not at all

6/2/2019 7:01:22 PM

I guess we could debate how detailed the coverage has been, but we've definitely had plenty of frequent unscripted, unhinged rants. And yet there Trump sits at only ~50% disapproval.

Quote :

"Full success would be removal from office."

Impeachment will not remove Trump from office. The 2020 election can, and the House's investigative powers can keep his atrociousness and incompetence in the news until then.

6/2/2019 7:22:33 PM

Quote :

"Haven't we had years of that already?"

Compare Mueller report to Mueller on camera statements.

Quote :

" ~50% disapproval."

That approx symbol is doing a ton of work for you there

Quote :

"House's investigative powers can keep his atrociousness and incompetence in the news until then."

Not really. House investigations are a dime a dozen. Impeachment is rare and reserved for this type of corruption and criminality.

Im trying to understand why anyone against Trump would be against impeachment. People talk about political backfire, but how? The house would outline gobs of high crimes and vote to impeach, then sure, the senate gop would show their morals and vote against. That would be neutral for them at best, but now Trump's "exoneration" claims will ring that much more hollow.

Not to mention all that, if Trump isn't worthy of impeachment we should just do away with the whole thing.

@onlxn:

Quote :

"the Dems’ current lead will shrink if Trump can make the closing argument “after all that, they didn’t impeach me, which proves they’re full of shit.” that line will resonate with low-info voters, partly because it’ll be TRUE! this isn’t galaxy-brain, it’s basic political logic: if your actions don’t match your words, swing voters won’t believe you. Trump can’t thread small needles but he can hammer simple truths like nobody. “DEMS DIDN’T IMPEACH ME” is a simple truth 1) the House *would* successfully impeach him, it just wouldn’t remove him from office 2) GOP Senators exonerating him after months of coverage of his misdeeds is not a net win for him. this is a fight. voters understand stalemates... they DON’T understand sides who don’t fight at this point “hearings” are a baseline buzzing sound people tune out. the GOP did Benghazi hearings for years... it never hurt Obama. impeachment is *different* in a way that penetrates. it’d be Nixon (election-related crimes), Clinton (sex), Trump (election-related crimes) "

6/2/2019 7:34:44 PM

Weve had maybe a week or two of something that only sort of approaches the coverage that will happen during an impeachment inquiry and those 2 weeks were with the democratic leadership saying we need to wait for evidence - that's not at all the same as when evidence is in the news daily and Democrats are coordinated against Trump

(And more importantly, it's their constitutional duty)

[Edited on June 2, 2019 at 8:13 PM. Reason : .]

6/2/2019 7:55:05 PM

Harris and Warren have been crushing it on their social media promoting lgbt rights and women’s rights, Bernie’s been beating the anti war drum hard calling out the pro Iraq war people trump hired. Gilibrandt on Fox News sticking it to Chris Wallace about fox pushing nutjob narratives like infanticide

I wish I could vote for all of them for president right now

6/3/2019 12:05:57 AM

Quote :

"Trump does not want to be impeached and he does not do well when his crimes are front and center every day"

Are there any days when his crimes aren't front and center? The problem with his crimes are there are so many of them, and he is completely unashamed of them, that bringing them up does nothing to knock him off message. His supporters are convinced any evidence against him is fabricated by the media and liberal elites, so unless Fox News and Breitbart start singing different songs I don't see anyone's mind being changed by it. It just riles up his base more.

6/3/2019 2:14:08 AM

He is def ashamed. He cries like a baby anytime serious investigations are discussed. When he's crying he looks weak. His base doesn't want him looking week.

And his crimes are certainly not always front and center. The NY fucking times basically wrote that he was exonerated after barrs letter.

6/3/2019 6:57:33 AM

Quote :

"Are there any days when his crimes aren't front and center?"

most of them

Quote :

"that bringing them up does nothing to knock him off message."

this is wrong, he becomes unhinged when it comes up, and his base doesn't like him like that

[Edited on June 3, 2019 at 8:25 AM. Reason : .]

6/3/2019 8:24:23 AM

Quote :

"That approx symbol is doing a ton of work for you there"

And yet there Trump sits at only ~50% the same 50-55% disapproval he's been at for the past year.

Quote :

"Im trying to understand why anyone against Trump would be against impeachment."

Because impeachment won't remove Trump from office but a successful 2020 campaign will.

For most people "Trump's crimes" are what's outlined in the Mueller report. People have made up their minds on the issue (hence the static poll numbers) and the House discussing specifics isn't going to change that. Mueller testifying is a waste of time unless Democrats can coax him into stating, unequivocally, that Trump would have been indicted were it not for DOJ policy (Mueller will never say that).

If House Democrats want to investigate new things happening now, then that would likely be helpful (personally I think aggressively pursuing Wilbur Ross and the census citizenship question would be a good start).

In any case, the focus should remain on the 2020 Senate and Presidential campaigns because that's the only path to removing Trump. Everything else is a sideshow.

6/3/2019 1:33:28 PM

I'd love to know what a president would need to do to meet your impeachment bar.

And Mueller testifying would matter bc spoken word is much more impactful then a long report. Major media painted the report as exoneration before the press conference the other day, even though Mueller was essentially just regurgitating the report.

Not impeaching is saying these crimes don't matter. You still prosecute a citizen even if it will be hard to find an unbiased jury. Maybe the overwhelming evidence will turn some flip flipper senator like Collins. If not, it will be a major campaign point in their next election. "refused to apply any checks to a corrupt and criminal president"

You still haven't said how impeachment can hurt, youve only said it won't do any good. Myself and dtr have outlined how we consider impeachment to be wins. Id rather have a neutral outcome with chances for a huge win then have a neutral outcome with chance for a huge loss.

Quote :

"In any case, the focus should remain on the 2020 Senate and Presidential campaigns because that's the only path to removing Trump. Everything else is a sideshow."

Whose focus? No house Dems are (seriously) running for president. A house impeachment inquiry would do nothing to keep Dem candidates from campaigning. It would def impact Trump's campaigning. When/if it gets to the senate, Warren, Sanders and Harris can get in some great attack moments that will have to make national reporting.

[Edited on June 3, 2019 at 2:07 PM. Reason : E]

6/3/2019 1:58:07 PM

Quote :

"the focus should remain on the 2020 Senate and Presidential campaigns"

I saw a really dumb post getting circulating on facebook saying that most of the democratic presidential candidates need to drop out and run for senate so we can take it back. That would be great if they didn't almost entirely come from states that either aren't voting on a senate seat this cycle or already have a democrat incumbent, or they themselves are already in the senate. I think only two out of the top twenty candidates would qualify, and they are both in Texas.

6/3/2019 2:22:17 PM

Beto should def drop out and run for senate again.

Hickenlooper could challenge Gardner in CO

Bullock in Montana

Not sure what Stacey Abrams will end up doing, but her name was in P/VP convo and she should def take a shot at senator

Your point generally stands, but there are more than just Texas. And maybe the pointy got knocked down by fb, but even if the candidates don't run themselves, they could focus on campaigning for Dem senate/house candidates rather than running a pres campaign.

6/3/2019 2:33:13 PM

I was gonna move this to the impeachment thread but didn't want to be post 49 a

Anyway, excellent column on the subject
https://www.gq.com/story/democrats-impeaching-trump

Quote :

"I don’t know how else to say this: getting impeached is bad. It is not something you want to happen to you, especially if you’re president. You do not want to go down as one of only four presidents in history to be impeached. This is a bad thing. Only Democrats, bless our hearts, could convince ourselves that it is good for a president to be impeached."

Quote :

"The decision not to impeach is not a decision to focus on other things, it is a decision to cede power, control, and legitimacy to Trump"

Quote :

"If the Senate conducts a trial, Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2020—like Maine’s Susan Collins and Colorado’s Cory Gardner—will have to decide whether to vote to remove from office a President who has been shown to have committed serious crimes, or protect him. They will likely vote to protect Trump and it will cost them: they will have to explain which of Trump’s many crimes they think are no big deal, why they disagree with the many voices from their own party saying his crimes make him unfit, and why a criminal president should be allowed to continue in office."

6/3/2019 11:27:22 PM

Quote :

"Because impeachment won't remove Trump from office but a successful 2020 campaign will."

this is 1) a false dichotomy and 2) ignores that the democratic base will by happy with impeachment

6/4/2019 8:34:31 AM

Impeachment before the election is a poor play here. Best case scenario he gets impeached and leaves disgracefully, and Pence picks up. This is what happens as a result of that. The democratic base is super excited and votes for people they were going to vote for anyway. Conservatives are emboldened because they feel their president got a bum deal and they're going to turn out to vote for Pence because he can carry on the Trump agenda. Independents who weren't going to vote for Trump because of how polarizing, inconsistent, and unstable he has been will reconsider voting for the Republican party because, why not give the new guy a chance. That's pretty small upside IMO.

On the downside, there is of course a failed impeachment, which makes the democrats look impotent, makes the democrat base feel there is no hope and question what the fuck the point is.

With no impeachment, you have a much better series of outcomes. You have democrats who are still motivated and thirsty to see Trump gone, so they turn out to the polls. You have some rabid republicans who believe this president is the messiah and will vote for him no matter what, but you will also have some who feel like the polls were wrong last time and Trump will will, so are not as motivated to go vote. You also have the independents who regret their previous choice and will sway because they want Trump out at all costs. Basically, same number of dems (maybe more), slightly fewer republicans, and vote shift of independents from conservative to democrat.

The bonus is you can still impeach him after the election and hit the republican party with that stain. Anyone who is suggesting impeachment now isn't thinking strategically.

6/4/2019 11:45:00 AM

it's only right before an election if they keep dragging their feet

the downside is major, the political downside is a lack of credibility and loss of confidence in the democratic party and the long term downside is congress signalling that they will pretty much never impeach anyone which is conceding one of the powers congress needs to be an effective challenge.

you say the downside of a failed impeachment is making democrats look impotent, however that is actually the downside of doing nothing. fighting and failing in the senate shows that the democrats are willing to fight and also puts congressional republicans on the record being okay with the various crimes committed by trump.

you have everything almost entirely backwards

Quote :

"The bonus is you can still impeach him after the election and hit the republican party with that stain"

welp i can agree that if democrats follow your line of thinking they would technically have the opportunity to impeach trump after he is reelected

6/4/2019 12:00:18 PM

Impeachment would be an unmitigated victory for democrats and the country. I don't see why anyone is concerned what the Senate will do, they're not going to do a credible investigation and probably say a bunch of dumb stuff, and the fact they don't vote to uphold the impeachment won't be seen as legitimate.

The democrats need to start holding hearings now (which they've sort of started) on the evidence for impeachment, then vote to impeach. They're running out of time to start the process though... Pelosi's hemming and hawing does add credibility to the process to let people know they're not taking it lightly, but they still need to start the process soon.

6/4/2019 12:20:45 PM

^^^How many independents do you think wouldn't vote for Trump but WOULD vote for Pence?

If Dems can't beat pence they'll never beat Trump. You think Trump's rabid base ramps up for Ken Doll?

[Edited on June 4, 2019 at 1:02 PM. Reason : R]

6/4/2019 1:01:52 PM

Death and the All-American Boy
Joe Biden was a lot more careful around the press after this 1974 profile.
WRITTEN BY KITTY KELLEY | PUBLISHED ON JUNE 1, 1974
https://www.washingtonian.com/1974/06/01/joe-biden-kitty-kelley-1974-profile-death-and-the-all-american-boy/

6/4/2019 1:03:29 PM

dtownral you're wrong on essentially every point. Fortunately, Pelosi seems to grasp the bigger picture here, so we won't suffer the fate of Icarus. Democrats need to focus on the war, not the battle.

There are 3 options - 1) Impeachment with a loss, 2) Impeachment with a win, and 3) Hold the road and keep the narrative.

Impeachment with a win is unlikely because the senate isn't likely to convict for impeachment. This is a big loss for democrats and as losses often do will shift momentum to one group and demotivate the losing group. I'm not sure how this is even up for debate.

In the unlikely event democrats would pull out a win, then you still have a republican in office and that person has a chance to promise whatever and carve out some quick wins in the remaining 1.5 years before the election. That's a pretty big risk, in my opinion. rwoody asked a fair question and, although anecdotal, I suspect you'd have a solid percentage vote for Pence when they wouldn't Trump. I know several friends and family who have articulated that very thing, but I also believe part of it is because Pence has stayed out of the limelight and can easily come out as an adult in the room, who can carry out some of the favorable agendas of Trump's, while also returning us to civility. All it'd take is one or two quick wins for Pence in the next 1.5 years to really sell that story. Now, the nuance to that question is there clearly would be some +/- to that independent swing based on who represents the democratic party. If it is Sanders, many would be turned off immediately by the word socialist but if it Biden, then some could see him a devil they know and be more torn. Even in the best of scenarios with a win, I believe that some of the base would be less motivated to go vote. Their villain would have already been defeated, it's like how people became less passionate about Game of Thrones once the Night King was defeated or how people turn the porno off right after they climax. Motivation often dies after a goal has been achieved. This isn't rocket science.

If you're a democrat (or ready to vote for one) and wouldn't feel confident of the party without having some sort of impeachment proceedings, then we're really in trouble. It would also highlight part of the problem of using a Boogie Man for 2 years to motivate your base rather than get them excited about a series of policies.

If you're really out to get Trump, there are plenty of ways that congress can do that in and out of his term. I'd rather we focus there rather than options 1 and 2, which have several major downsides, from my POV.

6/4/2019 3:26:41 PM

Quote :

"while also returning us to civility."

lololololol

6/4/2019 3:54:33 PM

^^ Yeah Mike Pence is definitely the guy who can fix Washington and return this country to political civility!

6/4/2019 4:01:29 PM

If you want democrats to not be motivated to vote, you can't send a stronger message than saying that trump is above impeachment.

Actually why the hell am I responding to someone who just said Trump could be impeached after the election, lol

[Edited on June 4, 2019 at 4:12 PM. Reason : .]

6/4/2019 4:11:17 PM

Quote :

"If you're a democrat (or ready to vote for one) and wouldn't feel confident of the party without having some sort of impeachment proceedings, then we're really in trouble"

Yes wanting government officials to do their jobs and uphold the constitution puts us in real trouble. He's not a fucking boogie man, hes a government official who is committing/committed high crimes and misdemeanors. Presidents should not be untouchable.

Also from the column I linked

Quote :

"More importantly, if the public believes Trump is guilty but the Senate lets him off anyway, he won’t ever be truly exonerated—he’ll be O.J. Simpson, assumed guilty but sprung by allies and circumstance. Some Democrats have argued that we should skip impeachment and vote Trump out instead. But if the House impeaches Trump and Senate Republicans fall in line to protect him, the argument that the ballot is the only way to remove him will be supercharged."

Quote :

"If it is Sanders, many would be turned off immediately by the word socialist but if it Biden, then some could see him a devil they know and be more torn"

All of conservative media will be shouting "socialist" about both of them.

6/4/2019 4:35:06 PM

Yeah the argument that Democrats are angry at Trump and have energy now to vote him out, but for some reason would not have that energy after months of having his crimes highlighted and after a failed Senate conviction in which case voting him out is the only way to remove him, really falls apart on its face

6/4/2019 4:55:03 PM

Your posts indicate that you're playing a really short sighted game here and either don't grasp or are not willing to consider the bigger picture at play.

Quote :

"^^ Yeah Mike Pence is definitely the guy who can fix Washington and return this country to political civility!"

Do I think he would in reality, no. Do I think most any politician from any side can pull us there- not likely. But my point, which was clearly stated, is that he just needs to paint that message. It's easy to get that rhetoric out there and do so long enough to keep Independents swayed. Especially since he'll be compared to Trump, which means all he has to do is not fire easy Twitter storms. If you can't see inside the mind of the independent voter, then you're out of touch with how to sway that much needed segment to get the Democrat victory we all want.

Quote :

"If you want democrats to not be motivated to vote, you can't send a stronger message than saying that trump is above impeachment. "

it's not about impeachment, it's about getting him out of office. Impeachment is one approach to that. Election is another. Moreover, no one is saying Trump is above impeachment, only that we are opting not to pursue impeachment.

Quote :

"Actually why the hell am I responding to someone who just said Trump could be impeached after the election, lol"

The context there was Trump would lose the election and then we could impeach the lame duck.

Quote :

"Yes wanting government officials to do their jobs and uphold the constitution puts us in real trouble. He's not a fucking boogie man"

Their jobs aren't to be vindictive and impeach, but to be strategic about how they can get the policies in place to move forward the republic. Taking strategic paths rather than being impulsive and impeach because an angry mob wants them to is exactly what I'd expect in this case. Parents often know better than their children. Also Trump is a Boogie Man. Not in the sense that he is something to be afraid of but in the sense that the left has come to view him as the symbol of all the things they dislike and attribute all negative shifts in the country toward him. I really don't see how that is up for debate.


Listen, this is all pretty simple. Impeachment isn't the end all be all. It has some positive results, yes, but it also has negative consequence and carries other extrinsic risks. Republicans learned this lesson with the (attempted) impeachment of Clinton. The democratic base came out full force after that and there was a shift in voting dynamics and several seats in congress flipped as a result. This is far from a binary course of action and should be viewed as such. If you don't see that, then I'm not sure I can help you.

[Edited on June 5, 2019 at 9:24 AM. Reason : quotes]

6/5/2019 9:23:32 AM

regardless of whether there is an impeachment trump will proclaim that he was vindicated and his base will call the whole thing a witch hunt, however without impeachment democrats will lose confidence in the party and stay home. democrats can't continue to run on a "we take the high road, country before party" message if they also send a clear message that duty and country do not come first, only doing things with zero political risk and conceding power to the minority republican party comes first.

additionally, not impeaching only further trump's argument that this is all about nothing - "if they actually believed there was a crime they would have impeached me, but they didn't because they know it's all fake and mueller proved it. no collusion. no crime. there is no russia thing, etc..."

clinton is not the comparison to use (the crimes were trivial, he had approval ratings 30 points higher, etc...), nixon is the better example. clinton cooperated with the investigation (mostly, absolutely in the context of today's obstruction), he testified, never tried to obstruct the investigation or fire the head of the FBI, never worked to undermine the justice system etc... clinton survived, and actually flourished in the short term, because everyone recognized that republicans had overreached on a pretty absurd issue. none of that is true with trump. watergate most closely resembles trump's crimes, and while the makeup of congress is difference the way the crimes are brought to light and the resulting drop in approval is the most applicable example of what to expect. democrats didn't see backlash after watergate, they saw success.

in regards to clinton, however, you are also taking a harmful shortsighted view of the outcome. immediately after the failed conviction clinton's popularity increased, and democrats gained 5 seats in the house, but after that republicans took the white house and maintained control in the house and senate. they used the impeachment to attack al gore and hillary clinton, and now are seemingly using it to protect trump.

there are at least 20 republican senators up for reelection, you need republican apathy to help in those races and highlighting trump's crimes in detail will cause some republican voters to stay home

what the democrats should be doing is pursuing a rigorous investigation, and impeachment gives them the power to do that. behind the scenes party leaders should be securing votes for impeachment, but that's not the impression i get from pelosi et al

Quote :

"Their jobs aren't to be vindictive and impeach, but to be strategic about how they can get the policies in place to move forward the republic. Taking strategic paths rather than being impulsive and impeach because an angry mob wants them to is exactly what I'd expect in this case. "

with statements like this it seems like you don't think that trump has committed serious crimes that undermine democracy and our system of checks and balances

[Edited on June 5, 2019 at 9:56 AM. Reason : .]

6/5/2019 9:54:29 AM

Quote :

"If you can't see inside the mind of the independent voter, then you're out of touch with how to sway that much needed segment to get the Democrat victory we all want. "

lolololololol

6/5/2019 10:08:02 AM

Quote :

"Their jobs aren't to be vindictive and impeach"

Enforcing the constitution and charging criminals is vindictive folks

Quote :

" but to be strategic about how they can get the policies in place to move forward the republic. "

What policies do you think Dems will get in place the next 1.5-5.5 years?

Quote :

"Taking strategic paths rather than being impulsive and impeach because an angry mob wants them to is exactly what I'd expect in this case. "

"impulsive" after a multi year investigation whose main conclusion was "you should impeach", and an "angry mob" consisting of the democrats voting base.

Quote :

"Parents often know better than their children. "

A real condescending prick here, huh?

Quote :

"Also Trump is a Boogie Man. Not in the sense that he is something to be afraid of but in the sense that the left centerhas come to view him as the symbol of all the things they dislike and attribute all negative shifts in the country toward him. I really don't see how that is up for debate. "

Biden is the only viable candidate acting like Trump is the disease, rather than a symptom, and he is getting slammed for it by the left

Quote :

"Republicans learned this lesson with the (attempted) impeachment of Clinton. "

Your little parenthetical shows you don't understand how this works. Clinton was impeached. Period.

Quote :

" The democratic base came out full force after that and there was a shift in voting dynamics and several seats in congress flipped as a result. "

Hmmm yes let's see how that worked out *checks notes on 2000 election* *puts on reading glasses* *takes out comically large magnifying glass*

6/5/2019 10:11:43 AM

the "democrats need to appeal to independents instead of their base" cancer needs to be completely excised from the democratic party

6/5/2019 10:37:43 AM

https://www.gq.com/story/democrats-impeaching-trump

a smart take on impeachment that should read by people like Geppetto

6/5/2019 12:35:46 PM

*cough*lookfartherupthepage*cough*

6/5/2019 12:39:58 PM

leaving it so he’ll have another opportunity to click it and read it

6/5/2019 12:48:16 PM

^^^ his former boss, harry reid, has now changed positions and come out in support of impeachment
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/06/04/pelosi-led-house-should-open-trump-impeachment-inquiry-harry-reid-says/1343009001/

6/5/2019 12:52:47 PM

^^fair!

6/5/2019 1:24:12 PM

https://theslot.jezebel.com/fuck-you-again-joe-biden-1835268738

6/5/2019 1:57:02 PM

https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1136638600366428160?s=21

Lol, imagine still believing in following traditions when this asshole shits all over everyone and everything all the time.

[Edited on June 6, 2019 at 10:27 AM. Reason : Oops, meant for this to go in credibility thread. Oh well. ]

6/6/2019 10:27:03 AM

this week has been a new story almost every day with reasons not to vote for biden

6/6/2019 11:08:43 AM

6/6/2019 7:19:01 PM

Pelosi's working right out of the party playbook. She knows they can't afford to impeach Trump because without him, the majority of the party would have no platform.

6/6/2019 8:17:41 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVfMlUt2K2I
If I was on one of these campaigns this would be an ad with Trump and Biden saying the same thing on every issue. They are the same on every issue and the people allegedly being polled need to see it. Trump's ideas came from Biden first.

Spend that money Bernie!

6/7/2019 1:48:30 AM

Hickenlooper: "You don't do big things with big government."

6/9/2019 6:58:53 PM

hoping that the second half of that statement went something like, “except for legalizing weed, which is the only reason why I’m here”

6/9/2019 7:17:23 PM

^^^^ Biden is the only candidate that spends a lot of time talking about trump

6/9/2019 11:14:55 PM

The split between young/old people on Biden is pretty funny
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8uCVHPWkAA3vS_.jpg

6/10/2019 6:19:04 PM

Why isn't Warren listed?

[Edited on June 10, 2019 at 6:39 PM. Reason : am I blind?]

6/10/2019 6:37:11 PM

^looks like a screenshot, I'm sure Warren is just below what was cropped

[Edited on June 10, 2019 at 7:33 PM. Reason : .]

6/10/2019 7:32:53 PM

I, too, would like to see Warren's numbers on that list.

Seems like no one likes Bill de Blasio. Who does he think are his constituents?

6/10/2019 10:32:30 PM

No one. People in New York just tolerate him.

6/10/2019 10:40:48 PM