The Tuesday updates are always the worst

2600+ fatalities.

The one good thing is that NYC deaths are receding but unfortunately those in some other key states are increasing more rapidly. The ascent Is always quicker than the descent but we will be around 50,000 in a few days if not sooner. I’ve been wrong before a lot but 60,000 may be a bit lower than what we actually see.

4/21/2020 6:15:55 PM

curious what the number will have to be before Republicans drop the “lots of people die every year” line

4/21/2020 6:19:17 PM

Georgia should provide a good sample of that in the near future

[Edited on April 21, 2020 at 6:25 PM. Reason : condolences to my ATL friends]

4/21/2020 6:24:34 PM

all but 4 of my extended family live in GA. Yeah, I'm worried about them and definitely won't be visiting for quite a while.

4/21/2020 6:28:33 PM

I'm looking forward to Republicans doing just enough to avoid a catastrophe in their states while still being able to point their fingers at Democrat run cities and states as having more severe outbreaks despite the natural tendency of viruses to spread more rapidly in more densely populated areas

[Edited on April 21, 2020 at 6:33 PM. Reason : still would take the L to protect all those red folk tho]

4/21/2020 6:32:50 PM

^^^^^

I hadn’t noticed that. What is unique to Tuesdays?

4/21/2020 6:45:38 PM

Quote :

"curious what the number will have to be before Republicans drop the “lots of people die every year” line"

People could be dropping like flies and they'd still bring up car accidents. Why bother?

Just be happy that good leaders, mayors and governors stepped up and put a ton of pressure on the Fed to do something. It's one of the beneficial aspects to our incredibly divided political system.

4/21/2020 7:33:33 PM

From that WH hot mic video at the end of the last page:

Quote :

""Everybody here's been vaccinated anyway.""

Vaccinated against what?

Quote :

"The Tuesday updates are always the worst 2600+ fatalities."

Final tally: 2,804

4/22/2020 12:39:53 AM

Quote :

"...the biggest bombshell to drop overnight was probably a statement from health authorities in California that the first coronavirus deaths in the US likely occurred weeks earlier than initially thought. Officials told the local press that forensic scientists in Santa Clara had discovered two autopsies on people who had died undiagnosed at home on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17 that showed signs of COVID-19. A third death on March 6 was also found to be caused by COVID-19. The first virus-related death in the US was reported in California on Feb. 26. "These three people died at home at a time when testing was very limited and only possible to get via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention," the forensics department said. Tests at that time were only available to people who returned from high-risk areas, or those who went to a doctor with serious and obvious coronavirus symptoms. Notably, a recent study in Santa Clara County also found that the viral penetration in the area was "50-80x higher" than official statistics suggested."

4/22/2020 8:50:13 AM

^^ Exactly. Is there a vaccine for the people attending white house press conferences, etc?

4/22/2020 9:32:37 AM

Quote :

"The Tuesday updates are always the worst 2600+ fatalities."

Basically EVERY week, the numbers drop on Sun/Mon and then go right back up again on Tuesday. Lag in reporting is all. Same exact thing was happening last month in Italy when they were peaking.

4/22/2020 11:56:38 AM

Listening to deadly lies can be... DEADLY.

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/21/viewers-of-sean-hannity-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-of-tucker-carlson-study

Blood on Trump's hands.

4/22/2020 2:09:49 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-22/tyson-foods-to-indefinitely-suspend-waterloo-operations-k9bbgnr9?sref=6HuIMd2m&__twitter_impression=true

Well, I’m now officially on the sacrifice the olds and weak to re-open train.

Can’t be having critical bacon shortages.

4/22/2020 2:15:56 PM

^^ I'd love to look at the methodology of how they determined that to be the case at a later point in time.

"Hi ma'am, sorry for the loss of your husband, while you're grieving and figuring out what to do now in your future, can you write down a list of what TV news he watched regularly?"

4/22/2020 2:37:48 PM

It's not even a peer reviewed study

4/22/2020 2:38:53 PM

My main question is if it was specifically given to people who were already more likely to die or if it was controled. CNN is presenting it as if it was a controled study but the press release I saw had no mention of it.

4/22/2020 4:18:28 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html

Come on. Is this virus just trying the "let's throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" approach for trying to kill us?

4/22/2020 10:20:06 PM

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nicotine-patches-to-be-tested-on-patients-after-study-suggests-smokers-less-likely-to-catch-covid-19-11977460

Quote :

"The authors write: "Our cross-sectional study strongly suggests that daily smokers have a much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to the general population. "The effect is significant, it divides the risk by five for ambulatory patients and by four for hospitalised patients. You rarely see that in medicine.""

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-specia/special-report-as-virus-advances-doctors-rethink-rush-to-ventilate-idUSKCN2251PE

Hmmm....



Awesome before-after slider pics here!
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/world/air-pollution-reduction-cities-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote :

"Major cities that suffer from the world's worst air pollution have seen reductions of deadly particulate matter by up to 60% from the previous year, during a three-week lockdowns period."

We have all seen pics of the clear skies in major cities worldwide, but this is simply phenomenal:

Quote :

"People in the northern Indian state of Punjab are reacting with awe at the sight of the Himalayan mountain range, which is now visible from more than 100 miles away due to the reduction in air pollution caused by the country's coronavirus lockdown. Indians in the city of Jalandhar and the surrounding area have posted photos online of the views from their homes, with some saying they haven't seen the peaks of the Himalayas for decades. "For the first time in almost 30 years (I) could clearly see the Himalayas due to India's lockdown clearing air pollution. Just amazing," Manjit Kang wrote."

Pics:
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/himalayas-visible-lockdown-india-scli-intl/index.html

And here you can see people posting pics of mountain ranges from multiple Asian countries, as well as in Africa, visible from their cities as far as 150 miles away!

https://twitter.com/Deewalia/status/1246080484813058048


[Edited on April 23, 2020 at 2:17 PM. Reason : editb4rwoodyranting]

4/23/2020 2:12:16 PM

Watch video
https://twitter.com/HoarseWisperer/status/1253392227843354625

Quote :

"She is the president of one of the three Idaho ultra-right groups who have been organizing protests around the state. The other two are Idaho Freedom Foundation and Idaho 3 Percent. It was planned."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ammon-bundy-protest-idaho-anti-vaxxer_n_5ea0b7d5c5b69150246cfbfc
He should have been shot back in 2016... but he is white, so that's not happening.

Quote :

"Walton Brady then asks one of the officers to arrest her, and the officer obliges. “Someone call the Idaho Freedom Foundation right now and get them on the phone!” Walton Brady screams, referring to the right-wing organization funded in part by a dark money group linked to the billionaire Koch brothers. "

Fucking right wing POS have taken over the US with their poisonous tentacles.

[Edited on April 23, 2020 at 6:26 PM. Reason : US death toll to exceed 50,000 in the next few hours ]

4/23/2020 6:23:03 PM

Super good Rona documentary was just released on Netflix

4/26/2020 10:14:28 AM

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697?s=21

Interesting but we should wait for the actual hindsight estimates that will be done after the virus is eradicated. My gut is that the actual numbers will be astonishingly high.

4/27/2020 11:34:32 AM

^ The Financial Times did a very rudimentary analysis that strikes me as the best way to calculate Covid deaths at the moment, because there's a lot of questions about "did this person die from Covid or not" due to lack of diagnosis and different places are using different methodology. What they did was compare the normal number of deaths from this time in the past 5 years to this year and saw the difference. From the 14 countries they looked at (look to be almost all European), they came up with 122k deaths from Covid while those 14 countries were reporting 77k at the time, or a 60% increase over what the official Covid death count is. The only country not underestimating per the FT's methodology was Denmark.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c?emailId=5ea5bed7ea83a3000415ee72&segmentId=ce31c7f5-c2de-09db-abdc-f2fd624da608





[Edited on April 28, 2020 at 7:50 AM. Reason : /.]

4/28/2020 7:48:29 AM

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/donald-trump-says-hes-not-to-blame-if-people-try-to-use-disinfectant-to-treat-coronavirus-c-1003525

Quote :

"Illinois Public Health Director Dr Ngozi Ezike said the calls have included someone using a detergent-based solution for a sinus rinse and another person gargling with a bleach and mouthwash mixture to kill germs."

Some Darwin awards coming up perhaps.

4/28/2020 9:57:35 AM

Must see!

When Will COVID-19 End
Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (updated on April 28)

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg

Extrapolated curves for many countries. There is also a table with end-dates at the bottom so it is easier to read the data.

USA

End 97%: May 16
End 99%: May 28
End 100%: Sep 09

4/29/2020 8:34:26 AM

Is there any evidence anywhere from any country that this is going to follow a near standard distribution with similar up trends and downtrends? I haven’t seen any pattern close to that and it’s always been an issue with the IMHE model. This has a little bit of skewness but the peak is still quote small.

I don’t see how this isn’t skewed right with a much fatter tail.

[Edited on April 29, 2020 at 9:06 AM. Reason : X]

4/29/2020 9:05:43 AM

And does it account for the reopen movement? And does it account for a second wave in the fall?

4/29/2020 10:38:19 AM

Gaston County to allow businesses to reopen today at 5pm

4/29/2020 11:11:28 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/holy-god-were-about-lose-everything-pandemic-crushes-overleveraged-airbnb

Story on airBNB "superhosts" (those that didn't just have 1 or 2 properties but a lot) that suddenly found themselves without incomes and no way to pay the mortgages they incurred to buy all these properties.

4/29/2020 11:14:34 AM

^^Pretty sure the lady in charge of the #ReopenNC movement is from Gaston Co.

I'm from there so I've got lots of friends and family still posting on FB, and they seem to be pretty divided, mostly down party lines, as to whether this is a good thing or not.

Spoiler alert...it's not.

4/29/2020 12:04:15 PM

Supposedly they are still going to stick to limiting mass gatherings to 10 people. Which might be doable for some small businesses, but isn't going to open restaurants back up to booming dine-in business or anything.

4/29/2020 12:34:41 PM

https://futurism.com/neoscope/organizer-anti-quarantine-protests-catches-coronavirus

https://futurism.com/neoscope/poll-most-americans-think-anti-quarantine-protesters-idiots

https://futurism.com/covid-killed-more-americans

https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-airborne-coronavirus-floating-wuhan-hospital


[Edited on April 29, 2020 at 12:55 PM. Reason : ]

4/29/2020 12:52:49 PM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bible-belt-us-coronavirus-pandemic-pastors-church-a9481226.html

'A phantom plague': America's Bible Belt played down the pandemic and even cashed in. Now dozens of pastors are dead

Don't feel sorry for them. Terrible for those they might have infected.

4/29/2020 3:30:50 PM

2,700 reported deaths today with an ever-decreasing share coming from NY. Trying to get more granular data but I think it is some backlog dumping (PA notably had nearly 4x as much — grabbed this from Nate Silver). Regardless deaths obviously haven’t peaked yet nationally.

None of the states reopening have met the criteria set out by Trumps admin but YOLO I guess. Going to be a long few months still..

4/29/2020 8:57:24 PM

Dangers of opening too early

https://www.euronews.com/amp/2020/04/28/coronavirus-germany-s-covid-19-infection-rate-rises-after-lockdown-lifted

4/29/2020 10:33:36 PM

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

very cool and very normal

4/29/2020 10:58:00 PM

Hmmm...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911

4/29/2020 11:57:30 PM

Did anyone know Quest had an antibody test available for consumer purchase now?

https://newsroom.questdiagnostics.com/2020-04-28-Quest-Diagnostics-Launches-Consumer-Initiated-COVID-19-Antibody-Test-Through-QuestDirect-TM

5/1/2020 1:57:45 PM

Yeah, I actually signed up today to get tested tomorrow.

5/1/2020 3:30:46 PM

in related news, can someone link me to something about what they know about people who have already been infected? Can they get sick again in short term etc?

5/1/2020 4:20:11 PM

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html

Seems like the odds of reinfection are low, but not completely out of the question.

5/1/2020 4:36:22 PM

I feel like all of this economic collapse is hubris from the State of the Union.

5/2/2020 8:20:53 AM

We have no reason to believe we've had it or been exposed, so I think we'll wait a bit to get the antibody test.

5/2/2020 11:20:11 AM

Anecdotal but I’ve read quite a few stories on how disastrous re-opening has been for small businesses and workers in Georgia. Zero demand and now workers are ineligible for UE, which is what the re-open crowd refuses to understand. Truth be told, for some that was the point but most are not bad people but just have a fundamental misunderstanding.

Until the virus is under control AND time passes to the point people feel comfortable enough that it won’t come back the economy isn’t going to recover, no matter how many restaurants or tattoo parlors open up.

5/3/2020 9:05:02 AM

im glad they took time out of their lying about domestic cases / deaths, their bird flu, and their resurgence of hantavirus(!) to make a Lego movie.

a real knee slapper.

5/3/2020 12:37:44 PM

Quote :

"Did anyone know Quest had an antibody test available for consumer purchase now?"

Just had my annual physical and Dr and I discussed these.

Quest wants $120, total ripoff. There are false positives and false negatives. The tests aren't specific to this particular coronavirus, so you may have coronavirus antibodies from some other infection

(im not a dr, trying to regurgitate what she told me)

so we decided to not bother with the antibody test, as I'd be out $120 and no closer to knowing anything.

5/4/2020 8:04:12 AM

^Thanks! That's very good information to know. I read through their description but did not see anything that mentioned it not being specific to COVID-19. It might have beent here but I didn't see it.

WSJ published a piece over the weekend that pointed to a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed research article that claims the fatality rate is far lower than the seasonal flu. Even dumb people should be able to realize however, the differences. The normal flu doesn't require refrigeration trucks outside of morgues because the morgues can't handle the influx.

5/4/2020 8:38:58 AM

Quote :

"Anecdotal but I’ve read quite a few stories on how disastrous re-opening has been for small businesses and workers in Georgia. Zero demand and now workers are ineligible for UE, which is what the re-open crowd refuses to understand. Truth be told, for some that was the point but most are not bad people but just have a fundamental misunderstanding. Until the virus is under control AND time passes to the point people feel comfortable enough that it won’t come back the economy isn’t going to recover, no matter how many restaurants or tattoo parlors open up."

Well, economic depression it is then.

Not meaning to be flippant about it, just honest.

I inquired a couple weeks ago to a city office employee if she heard how large the municipal budget was going to be cut (less economic activity, less tax income coming in, unlike the federal government we can't print our own currency). Another person who talks to bigshots due to his job stated the Indiana Department of Transportation was losing a million dollars a day due to not getting the gasoline taxes they were expecting to get. 40% of that money is then sent to local governments for their own roads. He also stated he had talked to the Mayor that day and the Mayor was not wanting to say anything about plans and budgets, that it was others' areas since they have individual budgets. Said he had to remind him "you're still the boss".

5/4/2020 9:01:59 AM

^^ For all the "not worse than the flu" people, how do they explain the difference in death rates from general normal to this year, where it appears the deaths due to Covid are being significantly undercounted? (see the chart up the page I posted from April 28th).

[Edited on May 4, 2020 at 9:04 AM. Reason : /]

5/4/2020 9:03:28 AM

Quote :

" Well, economic depression it is then. Not meaning to be flippant about it, just honest."

There really aren’t any good policy prescriptions here, which sucks. I don’t blame Trump for wanting to re-open but at the end of the day what can we do? Horde people at gunpoint to Red Robin? It sucks and it’s going to be terrible for a long time.

The Fed and Congress can temporarily help businesses and individuals but the long-term cost is going to be crazy. We really are about to see MMT in action.

5/4/2020 9:33:11 AM

how are yous guys sterilizing your masks?

[Edited on May 4, 2020 at 2:42 PM. Reason : ]

5/4/2020 2:42:46 PM