I'm liking the forecasts. Looking promising for the new bern area. Bring it on!

[Edited on January 26, 2014 at 10:05 PM. Reason : 23" of snow]

1/26/2014 10:04:02 PM

1/26/2014 10:04:54 PM

greg fishel is an interesting follow on facebook. had a semi-rant after getting harassed i guess about being relutant to forecast the snow.

1/26/2014 10:45:08 PM

Fishel is in a tough spot. If he shows everyone the model and says "as of right now, the models are predicting we will see a foot of snow." Everyone will say he said we would get a foot of snow. If he doesn't say how much we may get, he gets lambasted for not predicting it. There is still no telling what will fall right now. It is looking much better right now than it did yesterday, but we are still around 42-48 hours out. One slight wobble one way and we get 12 inches. A slight wobble the other way and we get 2 inches. A big wobble the other way and we get nothing.

1/27/2014 1:49:16 AM

Icon on my weather app changed from cloud to snowflake

so its definitely going to snow

1/27/2014 5:51:54 AM

Back east some.

NWS in Raleigh is basically saying nothing here as is WRAL. As was all along until the 18z last night this will be a south and east of RDU event.

1/27/2014 6:05:37 AM

This will shift in the last 6 hours and leave us with some rain here in Raleigh, if anything.

Best case scenario: the teasing "wintery mix"

1/27/2014 6:31:24 AM

Way too cold for rain.

Just no precip probably.

1/27/2014 6:52:06 AM

sigh

1/27/2014 7:05:40 AM

Quote :

"greg fishel is an interesting follow on facebook"

1/27/2014 7:07:21 AM

Quote :

"Weather is always most unpredictable when the pattern is changing. A much milder pattern is getting set to evolve across our area by next weekend, but ironically, the transition to that pattern MAY provide parts of our area with some winter fun. Hopefully you have heard us talk about ensembles, a group of computer models that help us to see how sensitive the atmosphere is to very small changes in the flow pattern. While the majority of these ensemble members have been saying "no snow", there have been enough members going the other way that one could not ignore them. Tonight, the American global model has shifted westward with the snow area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with Raleigh on the western fringe. While many would like a "yes" or "no" answer, the atmosphere doesn't work that way. And quite frankly the internet allows just about anybody to pretend they're an expert on any topic they choose. In the last 36 hours I have seen broadcasters across the southeast post snow accumulation forecasts on the web down to the tenth of an inch, for an event that is 5 days away. Everybody wants to be first so when that one time rolls around where it does snow, the chest beating can begin. I learned something very valuable from Kermit Keeter, a long time forecaster with the National Weather Service in Raleigh. He said "I'd rather be right than first". Amen brother. When we have high confidence, we'll tell you. When we're not sure, we'll tell you that too. It makes no sense to commit when there is nothing to commit to. We will keep a close watch on this midweek system, and do our very best to keep you informed. That is the only promise I can safely make. Greg Fishel"

1/27/2014 8:37:42 AM

Well said

1/27/2014 8:46:07 AM

so what's the latest model say, how many inches are we going to get? I need to know down to the tenth of an inch!

1/27/2014 8:55:24 AM

prediction of rain, but we'll get 4-5 inches of snow...mark my words

1/27/2014 10:27:29 AM

That was a great reply to the idiots on Facebook

OMG, JUST TELL US, YOU ALREADY KNOW WHAT IT'S GONNA DO. YOU ARE JUST TRYING TO KEEP YOUR RATINGS UP.

1/27/2014 10:30:02 AM

that's seriously an argument people are making? wow.

1/27/2014 10:33:40 AM

I'm sure those retards are the same ones who are absolutely positive that humans have no effect on the climate, not even a little bit.

[Edited on January 27, 2014 at 10:40 AM. Reason : ]

1/27/2014 10:39:59 AM

NWS Raleigh still basically saying we have no idea.


Rare to see this level of hedging across the board.

1/27/2014 10:41:22 AM

yeah, wral would never do anything odd to boost their news ratings...

1/27/2014 10:43:03 AM

there are a ton of factors involved with this system. none of the ensembles are in agreement. should be interesting to see what happens.

1/27/2014 10:46:24 AM

Quote :

"should be interesting to see what happens."

it won't be, though

we'll get a few sprinkles, perhaps some light icing on bridges...but probably not even that

1/27/2014 10:49:31 AM

From NWS Raleigh FB:

1/27/2014 10:51:19 AM

There was a saying awhile back about "fisheled again" referring to bad calls he made. Glad to se him taking his time.

1/27/2014 10:52:20 AM

LOL, this just got hilarious to me for some reason.

1/27/2014 10:52:30 AM

Quote :

"we'll get a few sprinkles, perhaps some light icing on bridges...but probably not even that"

but you just said 4-5 inches of snow. covering all your bases?

[Edited on January 27, 2014 at 10:53 AM. Reason : ]

1/27/2014 10:52:30 AM

WORST CASE SCENARIO? LOOKS LIKE BEST CASE SCENARIO TAH ME

1/27/2014 10:57:50 AM

^

1/27/2014 10:59:42 AM

There is literally zero chance of non snow precip.

What falls, if anything, will be snow.

1/27/2014 11:05:01 AM

that's good, the last system didn't do shit because everything was too warm and wet

1/27/2014 11:08:57 AM

Quote :

"but you just said 4-5 inches of snow. covering all your bases?"

yes

1/27/2014 11:10:54 AM

Looks like south and east of raleigh will have no problem with getting a good snow. We are gonna have to hope it trends further west with such a tight gradient between OMG SNOW and we didnt get shit FML!

1/27/2014 11:12:41 AM

Every winter storm Raleigh sits right on The Line™.

It's always "Everything west of Raleigh" or "Everything north of Raleigh".

Whatever creeps over is easily handled by the Raleigh Shield.

We expect a good snow once a season, but it's always north or west of us. For it to be both south AND east.. At this point it's obvious the weather is just trolling Raleigh.

1/27/2014 11:29:49 AM

1/27/2014 11:35:32 AM

^^ The last time Raleigh had a good snow was Jan. 25th 2000. 20" reported at the airport

1/27/2014 11:49:30 AM

yup, I was here, it was amazing

but that was an outlier; 20" of snow in Raleigh is nowhere close to the traditional weather for this area

[Edited on January 27, 2014 at 11:52 AM. Reason : .]

1/27/2014 11:50:04 AM

I had about an inch, if not a little more, from the last snow.

Maybe I'm not under the dome.

[Edited on January 27, 2014 at 11:54 AM. Reason : add another note]

1/27/2014 11:53:48 AM

how often are models updated?

we should place bets on snow accumulation

1/27/2014 12:12:34 PM

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42584-128-130-storm-thread-ii

Check this thread. I check it every few hours for updates.

I don't understand a lot of the discussion but you can pull enough info to get ideas.

1/27/2014 12:19:25 PM

yeah, those forums are legit. been on there for a couple of years now.

1/27/2014 12:24:56 PM

1/27/2014 12:44:19 PM

Looks like timing is moving closer and closer to noon with each run. I saw 1-3pm on guidance today, whereas last night the timing was looking like it was going to be an evening-overnight event. Bring on 15" of snow! _{not likely}

1/27/2014 12:50:05 PM

Huffman told me 12-2pm start, 3-6" in Raleigh but gradient is gonna be so sharp its a crapshoot at this point. 20 mile shift one way or other is gonna make a big difference with this one for our area.

1/27/2014 1:00:40 PM

WRAL is doing all they can to delay snowfall projections

1/27/2014 1:01:27 PM

looks like things are starting to trend west...

1/27/2014 1:04:19 PM

jim west. desperado

1/27/2014 1:11:31 PM

Greg Fishel

Quote :

""I'd rather be right than first""

wouldn't that make your originally forecast 32 degrees and partly sunny completely wrong then?

1/27/2014 1:34:42 PM

You just trolling now?

1/27/2014 1:37:53 PM

Yay im getting 3 inches at least.


Who cares after that. We are getting snow.

1/27/2014 1:41:30 PM

I do. You need more than 3 inches for a decent sledding base.

1/27/2014 1:42:24 PM

Quote :

"WRAL is doing all they can to delay snowfall projections"

who can blame them? This situation is so volatile, they have no clue what is going to happen until it is over. If they took what the maps told them last yesterday evening, they would have said 8-10 inches for raleigh. If they took what the maps told them this morning/late last night...they would have said 1-2 inches at best. How can you try and tell the public a general prediction with that kind of gradient? The snow cutoff is going to be so sharp on this one, that they can't predict with any certainty where its gonna be. The bottom half of wake county could get 3-4 inches where as the top half of wake county could be dry.

1/27/2014 1:44:02 PM