Jesus Christ this is getting bad. Chinese banks worthless?!

10/12/2011 1:41:51 PM

Investing in canned food and ammo yet?

10/12/2011 1:51:41 PM

been too busy at dayjob to trade this run up

10/12/2011 2:10:41 PM

Goldman Sachs announces a $428-million quarterly loss.

GS goes up 2%.

10/18/2011 10:58:16 AM

^ 3.5% now.

10/18/2011 2:44:46 PM

why the hell is the market going up.

10/18/2011 3:15:46 PM

EU bailout funded by France and Germany.

10/18/2011 3:56:09 PM

This program will be the one that fixes it all right?

10/18/2011 6:44:44 PM

When Apple misses earnings, that's how you know things are really bad

10/18/2011 7:36:08 PM

Bad doesn't begin to describe this. This is armageddon

If bac wipes out $1 trillion worth of deposits with that sheisty derivative move the entire FDIC goes bust immediately. Uh oh.

Europe is hilarious. Two options are go bust now or go bust in 2012. Pick your poison

We are truly about to live through unforgettable history

10/19/2011 11:59:08 PM

Quote :

"If bac wipes out $1 trillion worth of deposits with that sheisty derivative move the entire FDIC goes bust immediately"

i don't get it

please explain

10/20/2011 12:23:36 AM

Alias Exposed..

face = Nouriel Roubini

10/20/2011 6:29:29 AM

They moved all their derivative exposure from Merrill Lynch to their BANK. not the holding company, the fucking bank.

Fdic is freaking out. They don't exactly have $1 trillion laying around to cover them if they use deposits to cover their losses then dump the liability on the FDIC.

10/20/2011 9:15:11 AM

^^^

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196184

[Edited on October 20, 2011 at 10:31 AM. Reason : ]

10/20/2011 10:31:33 AM

^So should I close my BofA checking account?

10/20/2011 10:39:38 AM

I'm usually a big fan of trying to bank locally with smaller places or with credit unions. So yes, I would recommend moving your money elsewhere, but that's just me.

10/20/2011 10:44:55 AM

Yes you definitely should. Fdic coverage won't mean much if Boa goes bust

10/20/2011 10:49:44 AM

Man, I wish it would make my mortgage disappear as well.

10/20/2011 11:04:51 AM

^^Lol, do you think FDIC and others will sit around waiting for BOA to wipeout 1 trillion worth of assets and then step in to cover the losses after everything is wiped out?

[Edited on October 20, 2011 at 11:08 AM. Reason : a]

10/20/2011 11:06:53 AM

BAC isn't going under. If you listened to the analyst call earlier this week, Brian M addressed this concern specifically. The Bank holding company is rated higher than the ML subsid. Do you think it would actually matter if the exposure are held at the holding company or subsid if a market event triggers massive defaults?

The chicken little script is getting old.

10/20/2011 11:23:21 AM

No, I'm saying they won't be able to cover it.

They are pissed but the fed reserve overruled them on this one.

All that matters to them is that the counterparties collect like pension funds, hedge funds, etc

They don't give a Fuck if the poor people lose their checking accounts.


^ I can't tell if you're trolling. The CEO said they aren't going under? Much rejoicing! Thank god he said that, crisis averted.


Ps. They just lost their court case. $8.5 billion isn't going to hold up. Going to be much larger. So if the $57 trillion in derivatives doesn't blow up first then there's always that.

[Edited on October 20, 2011 at 11:27 AM. Reason : a]

10/20/2011 11:24:01 AM

The situation of FDIC having to cover a trillion in losses will never arise. By principal, regulatory agencies will have to step in long before that.

10/20/2011 11:28:31 AM

No, he address the question about moving the derivative exposures over to the holding company. I think there are much more concerning risks to worry about other than BACs derivatives. Only poor people have checking accounts?

10/20/2011 11:31:26 AM

anyone has any experience with peer to peer lending?

http://www.prosper.com/welcome/how_it_works.aspx

10/20/2011 12:24:54 PM

I looked into it about five years ago when it came out. You can diversify your risk by loaning out small amounts to lots of people, but I never actually followed through with it since it seemed like a large % of people were defaulting.

10/20/2011 12:35:03 PM

Quote :

"The situation of FDIC having to cover a trillion in losses will never arise. By principal, regulatory agencies will have to step in long before that."

The situation of the FDIC actually covering a trillion in losses will never arise. That, at least, is true.

Nothing can stop the unraveling of the hundreds of trillions of bad debt on the books. At the end of the day, if the government attempts to "bail out" the banks again, it will mean they need to create trillions in new money. I think the people are too aware of what's going on, and frankly, and I think the international pressure is so intense now that we would not be able to go through with it.

And, remember...he who panics first panics best.

10/20/2011 12:46:50 PM

^^^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosper_Marketplace#Criticisms

10/20/2011 12:58:03 PM

I used lending club briefly only had one default.

My rate of return from Jan '08 - Jan '11 when they matured was just over 12% which is excellent considering credit took a dump during that period.

It's fine if its a small piece of your portfolio and you aren't leveraging yourself by say using the income to pay a mortgage.

Only had one prepayment, most people threaten to prepay but don't. Even if they did your reinvestment risk is pretty low compared to other amortizing securities because the rates are based more on a credit matrix than a reference index like libor.

I found it relatively easy to determine who was a good credit risk and who wasn't. The one default was a dumb loan I shouldn't have made. It had a red flag he owed backtaxes to the irs. I got mezmorized by his high income and made a loan that didn't have solid fundamentals.

10/20/2011 1:22:07 PM

Which club did you use? Why did you stop?

10/20/2011 1:30:41 PM

So I did a little research on prosper and it looks like their default rates were very high and overall the avg returns were negative.

Lending club on the other hand the avg returns were about 9% which is more in line with my experience

10/20/2011 1:52:34 PM

Quote :

"hundreds of trillions of bad debt "

The fuck? Where does this number come from? Lemme guess, this is where you get all conspiratorial and shit?

10/20/2011 6:46:55 PM

That's just how big the derivatives market is. BofA has 75 trillion of it, but plenty of other banks are playing the game too. Shit, it's probably over a quadrillion globally at this point. Derivatives are ultimately funded by credit.

At some point, a lot of those derivatives are going to evaporate and people are going to lose big. When I talk about the unraveling of hundreds of trillions of debt, I'm talking about a collapse in the derivatives market. People are still piling on, but I think there will be a black swan event at some point that makes the toxic nature of the derivatives market clear. It's the ultimate bubble.

10/20/2011 7:33:49 PM

There may be trillions in derivative contracts but that does not mean there is an equal amount of aggregate credit exposure. BAC and similar institutions are on both sides of the contract. They may write one Interest rate swap protecting against a rise in rates and also write a interest rate swap to protect against a decline in rates. Part of market making.

The point is - many of the contracts will cancel each other out. Remember, there is always a winner and a loser.

10/20/2011 8:14:41 PM

A 50 to 70 trillion $ book has plenty of ways to loose a trillion. Run by the guys who bought countrywide two ticks from the top I'd say it's almost certain.

10/20/2011 8:59:15 PM

^^ what you are referring to is bilateral netting which works in theory but 2008 proved it blows up in reality. The reason is because of counterparty risk.

There's an old saying that goes something like "if you owe the bank $1,000 you've got a problem. If you owe the bank $1 million the bank has a problem."

Well in this case if bank of America owes Goldman $1 million then bank of America has a problem. But if bank of America owes Goldman $100 billion then Goldman has a problem.

AIG made the bilateral netting theory obsolete. If the counterparty can't pay then your hedge means Dick.

And that's precisely why this shit should have been regulated in the first place. If you can believe it they're even more leveraged now than they were in 2008. You'd have to be an idiot to think this will end well. Its every man for himself now.

Oh but if id listened to bank of Americas conference call I'd know none of this stuff matters haha.

I could have heard all about their "earnings" aka their accounting tricks by claiming valuation adjustments on their own fucking bonds Hahaha. Maybe they could have briefed me on their collapse in net interest margin and underwriting. Or bragged about their soon to be extinct tangible common equity or irrelevant book value.

These guys know they're fucked but truth is treason in the empire of lies. They'll just keep delaying their collapse so they can collect a few more bonus checks and then....Here comes the dynamite. Poof. And its gone.

[Edited on October 20, 2011 at 9:29 PM. Reason : a]

10/20/2011 9:22:14 PM

I will take a long position and you can go short.

There is definitely less leverage across the financial services industry and it will continue to decrease as Basel 2.5 and 3 are phased in over the next few years. Not claiming there is substantially less leverage but certainly down from the LEH peaks.

True - Earnings were augmented by a gaggle of one offs. Top line revenue was much stronger than expected and you can't pump that with accounting tricks.

[Edited on October 20, 2011 at 9:52 PM. Reason : E]

10/20/2011 9:48:18 PM

Gonna hold onto my shares of SPXU through the weekend methinks. Bearish flag on SPX looking for a retest of 1170.

10/20/2011 10:46:31 PM

I'm not a big shorter because I believe in currency devaluation but if there's any company out there that's an easy short its bac.

Don't go long just to prove a point. That stock is a doozy ill get no pleasure out of you losing 100%

10/20/2011 11:19:36 PM

just don't short BAC until it completes the post inverse head and shoulders runup

10/21/2011 4:29:58 PM

im starting to consider trading EDC from the long side again...

hopefully at a lower price point though.

[Edited on October 24, 2011 at 12:24 PM. Reason : lower price as entry]

10/24/2011 12:07:33 PM

the ENTR buy has worked out well. Sold some at 5.65, just to take a profit, up from 3.60 and 4.07. Hoping it goes back down to about 4.80 so that I can pick some more up. Nice reversal has taken shape over the past few months.

10/24/2011 1:00:18 PM

Netflix haha

10/24/2011 9:07:52 PM

Made my money and got out a long time ago.

10/24/2011 10:02:25 PM

WOW, NFLX got ruined. Not surprised though. I'm still confident on my short of SPX. Should see a selloff here within the next week.

10/24/2011 11:24:38 PM

Netflix seems to be run by retards

10/25/2011 8:58:23 AM

now would be the time to sell off the disc arm of the company to gamefly or redbox or something. all digital is the way to go. they need a better model than just subscription though. on-demand ppv style stuff would go a long way.

10/25/2011 1:41:11 PM

AMZN...ouch. But with a 3% or less operating margin, not surprising.

10/25/2011 4:28:21 PM

what crazy nut jobs own these stocks like amazon and netflix. Obvious bubbles.

10/25/2011 11:22:02 PM

if only mods banned people based on their opinions and stock picks

10/26/2011 9:33:22 AM

How is Amazon a bubble?

10/26/2011 9:51:52 AM