^ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#stateorder

lots of paths (not really, just new Hampshire primarily, or any other state)

11/1/2016 11:22:56 AM

Latest Elon poll for NC is tied. 44-44-4.

Also has Burr up 4 on Ross.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:02 PM. Reason : Last Elon poll was C+6 and this tie was PRE-Comey ]

11/1/2016 12:59:15 PM

anyone who says the race is remotely close doesnt understand how the electoral college works. trump going from winning states to landsliding in states doesnt mean anything.

11/1/2016 1:00:51 PM

I think that this literally caused my blood pressure to increase.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

Quote :

"[Trump] has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights..."

11/1/2016 1:06:24 PM

that was before comey too. I can't think of what trump was saying/doing then other than the election is rigged and his pussy grabbing/sexual assault cycled out of the media

11/1/2016 1:14:14 PM

If the nowcast stays as is but Trump wins NC and FL and McMullin takes Utah we have my dream scenario of no one getting 270 and a random third party actually having a chance to be president. That is the only thing that could make this election anymore insane.

11/1/2016 1:15:48 PM

The reality is GOP and GOP-leaning indies were always going to come home.

A closer race doesn't fit Earls everything was rigged narrative. He can basically be ignored.

Empirically it is still very likely Clinton wins and the GOP holds the Senate now but that is far more fluid than it was a week ago.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:17 PM. Reason : ^ wat? Trump would obviously be pres in that scenario. And it's still highly unlikely]

11/1/2016 1:16:53 PM

^^ trump would also have to win Nevada and one of the following: Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire

11/1/2016 1:27:27 PM

This key model that has been high on Trump for months suddenly shifted to Clinton getting a big win?

I mean I think she's gonna win but I don't get what changed.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:38 PM. Reason : Maybe I'm thinking of two different analytical models that claim they have been right since way back]

11/1/2016 1:35:17 PM

Quote :

"William J. Clinton Foundation: This initial release consists of material from the FBI's files related to the Will... vault.fbi.gov/william-j.-cli…"

From a verified FBI twitter. They are just taking the piss now. How on earth does it look normal to release this from a file closed in 2005 on Nov 1, 2016.

It is just trolling but what is going on over there?

11/1/2016 1:38:10 PM

^^^^^^^Where's Shrike to defend Hillary's polling numbers in that ABC article? That's pretty scary.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:39 PM. Reason : ^]

11/1/2016 1:39:20 PM

^^
Can you post a link?

It might be because Wikileaks is enacting "Phase 3" this week, which I suspect is a Clinton Foundation leak.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:42 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 1:41:41 PM

https://vault.fbi.gov/william-j.-clinton-foundation

I think it's probably in response to a FOIA request. But holy crap, timing...

11/1/2016 1:44:09 PM

Thanks, twitter link too if you have it

Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault/status/793482749025792000

This is very strange.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 1:55 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 1:44:57 PM

It looks like it's been randomly dropping relevant information to the election (again probably FOIA related). Did one on Trump's dad too.

11/1/2016 2:00:32 PM

Quote :

"^^^^^^^Where's Shrike to defend Hillary's polling numbers in that ABC article? That's pretty scary."

What does "defend" poll numbers mean. Tracking polls are garbage, they always have been. Any poll that shows a 13 point swing in a week should be completely ignored. No other national poll has shown a swing that large, in fact most have held perfectly steady at a 5-7 lead for Clinton.

11/1/2016 2:01:20 PM

even newt was 67% right in a tweet about it. polls shouldn't be ignored. outlier polls should be.



tracking polls are indeed garbage. this still pales in comparison to the absurdity of the LA Times tracker that gives one black kid a 30x weighting to make his one voice represent a huge swath of america.

11/1/2016 2:09:05 PM

Polling numbers are garbage when they aren't going your candidates way. That's the way it always has been.

11/1/2016 2:09:51 PM

apparently the fbi wants it to be pence as president come January

11/1/2016 2:21:50 PM

Is it weird that nobody checked my ID when I went to vote? Like I just said my name and they were like ok.

11/1/2016 2:24:30 PM

The voter ID law was struck down, so no.

11/1/2016 2:39:11 PM

Only theory I can come up with for the abc trackig poll is some of the people in the poll voted already and stopped bothering to reply, and most of them voted for Clinton.

11/1/2016 3:18:31 PM

^^^ Way to show off your white privilege.

You should be more empathetic and understanding towards minorities who are mentally incapable of possessing any form of ID, racist.

11/1/2016 4:09:07 PM

But... that's not an argument?

*** WRAL poll for NC just came out. All post Comey. Last was C+2. Now T+7.

A rated pollster by 538.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 4:14 PM. Reason : X]

11/1/2016 4:10:52 PM

It triggers people that think (via racism of low expectations) that voter ID laws are racist.

11/1/2016 4:14:17 PM

this FBIRecordsVault is sketchy as fuck. A verified account that claims to be "the official FBI Records Management Division Twitter" that barely posted before is suddenly posting a bunch of stuff related to the election.

I hope that its not connected to the FBI in anyway, because if so someone needs to shut it down

11/1/2016 4:14:57 PM

http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/

So this would be consistent with what? A 4 or 5 point national lead for Trump. To be +7 here would likely mean a Trump landslide, no?

11/1/2016 4:22:02 PM

Y'all are really going to bedwet over every single outlier poll these last 7 days, aren't you? SurveyUSA has a terrible history polling NC, here's a poll after the 2008 RNC where they had McCain up 20 points in NC,

http://abc11.com/archive/6380065/

Let me ruin the suspense: Hillary is going to win every Obama 2012 state + NC - IA. She might lose Ohio too, but early voting is looking better there every day. Shrike out.

11/1/2016 4:30:48 PM

Quote :

"^^^ Way to show off your white privilege. You should be more empathetic and understanding towards minorities who are mentally incapable of possessing any form of ID, racist."

I'm not white. Just thinking they would need to prove it's me and not just anyone with my name can go vote as me.

11/1/2016 5:01:03 PM

^^ it's great that you're so confident, but I've already started browsing jobs in the UK, Australia, and NZ just in case.

11/1/2016 5:03:22 PM

Quote :

"this FBIRecordsVault is sketchy as fuck. A verified account that claims to be "the official FBI Records Management Division Twitter" that barely posted before is suddenly posting a bunch of stuff related to the election. I hope that its not connected to the FBI in anyway, because if so someone needs to shut it down"

I'm starting to believe the talk about unrest in the FBI. This week should be fun.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 5:05 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 5:04:47 PM

^^^ If you're caught voting as someone else you face up to 5 years in prison and a possible $10k fine. I'm not too concerned about them checking IDs

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 5:05 PM. Reason : ^]

11/1/2016 5:05:23 PM

Quote :

"^^ it's great that you're so confident, but I've already started browsing jobs in the UK, Australia, and NZ just in case. "

Way ahead of you, I paid $200 for my Canadian passport last year

11/1/2016 5:06:52 PM

The FBI said its legally required to release results immediately from a FOIA request thus the tweet.

Must not have gotten any for that full year in between tweets.

11/1/2016 6:49:53 PM

That doesn't make sense at all, the stuff they are tweeting is old and it was not very active before

And also I'm sure the law says nothing about tweeting releases

11/1/2016 6:54:06 PM

^^
Nope, they released a bunch the day before. One on Nikola Tesla (???), Trump's dad, Petraeus, and Hillary's FBI testimony (which had already been released in Sept). Various other documents.

It's very bizarre.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 6:56 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 6:55:46 PM

Let me try and find the statement. It's bizarre.

https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793581160651776001

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 6:58 PM. Reason : I guess they didn't reference tweet in statement]

11/1/2016 6:57:53 PM

The Tesla thing is especially interesting. Some people are claiming it to be an homage to this weird 4chan time travel story about Fred Trump and Tesla, lending credibility to "FBIAnon".

I don't buy it, but it is strange.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:03 PM. Reason : Or maybe it's just because Trump's uncle worked on the case, lol]

11/1/2016 6:58:17 PM

Honestly, I'm sure they were all legit FOIA requests but the tweet thing is the odd to me.

11/1/2016 7:07:46 PM

For full on conspiracy, this guy (former Dept. Asst. Sec. State to Kissinger, Harvard and MIT grad) claims to be part of an intelligence community coup.

http://youtu.be/ov5kvWSz5LM

Unfortunately he's also a regular on Alex Jones and thinks San Bernardino was a false flag.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:10 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 7:09:28 PM

The thing with being a conspiracy theory 'fan' is that it requires tons of attention and patience, with very little actual payoff in the end. It's similar to getting sucked into the UNC cheating scandal and following tweets/posts incessantly, building your hopes and dreams up that the best case scenario will eventually happen (NCAA death penalty), but in the end it's all just a tease and then you're left feeling dumb and pissed off about how unfair the world actually is. You seem to really enjoy them, but so far, what concrete results have you gotten?

11/1/2016 7:29:32 PM

man id put any amouny of money on hillary winning this election. there is zero doubt. its only these popular vote polls making people nervous. trump can win every swing state by 30 and still have no chance of being president. show me a poll where he is within moe in Pennsylvania or michigan and then we can have a conversation about how the election might be getting close. you guys just dont seem to get how 270 works.

11/1/2016 7:41:08 PM

No, we do. I'm honestly not really worried about the popular vote. What bothers me is that states that have been solid blue/lean blue are now pretty close to being within the MOE and could very well go for Trump. I never counted OH as blue, but FL/NC scare me.

11/1/2016 7:44:47 PM

thats my point. you are worried about states that still wouldnt get him to 270.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 7:48 PM. Reason : maybe you are really worried about the senate.]

11/1/2016 7:48:01 PM

I'm not necessarily concerned at this point. Right now I'm disappointed that it's not going to be the blowout it looked like a week ago.

The only thing that does concern me is that there haven't been a lot of recent polls in Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I think people have been focused for so long on Pennsylvania as the most likely firewall state to flip, but I think she has it locked down and there has been tons of polling done there. Those other 3 haven't seen quite as much.

11/1/2016 7:52:17 PM

Quote :

" You seem to really enjoy them, but so far, what concrete results have you gotten?"

Lots from the DNC/Podesta leaks. DNC/HRC collusion, media collusion, debates scheduled to favor Clinton, foreign governments paying the Clinton Foundation for access to Bill/Hillary/Chelsea, Citi exec drafting most of Obama's cabinet, etc etc. In any other election, or if this information came out during the primary, things would be different. But Trump though...

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 8:36 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2016 8:35:36 PM

Quote :

"man id put any amouny of money on hillary winning this election"

Hey E Man great news, YOU CAN DO THIS!

There are multiple websites that will allow you to do this. Wouldn't you like to have more money? You keep saying shit like this over and over, wouldn't your time be better spent actually placing the bets? Where are the screenshots of your positions?

11/2/2016 8:50:48 AM

Quote :

"Citi exec drafting most of Obama's cabinet,"

Is this true?

adultswim could you list your source? I'm not questioning or doubting, just curious.

11/2/2016 10:23:59 AM

^
https://newrepublic.com/article/137798/important-wikileaks-revelation-isnt-hillary-clinton

you can google all the rest too. my source is the leaks themselves, but articles have been written.

[Edited on November 2, 2016 at 10:31 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2016 10:29:10 AM

Is that a reputable source? It seems like if you don't post something from Huffington, CNN, Salon or Washington Post, it isn't a legitimate source.

But if so, holy shit that's corrupt.

But I bet every president does it. Big oil probably picked Bush's cabinet.

11/2/2016 10:33:02 AM