^Makes me realize I need to watch Idiocracy again, it's been too many years.

[Edited on August 7, 2024 at 9:50 AM. Reason : top post, sorry]

8/7/2024 9:50:03 AM

apology not accepted. fku

8/7/2024 1:41:27 PM

^Whoa! Calm down.

^^It was free with ads on YouTube for a while. Seems not now.

8/7/2024 7:45:20 PM

TIL that RFK Jr is married to Cheryl Hines

8/8/2024 10:48:16 PM

TIL Cheryl Hines is Larry davids wife on curb your enthusiasm

8/8/2024 11:27:20 PM

I think this one is very far from over. I think it's still a tight race, but it seems that as of now, the prevailing view is that Harris is favored.

Can you guys imagine how different that would be if the GOP Senators had done their duty and abided by their oath to the Constitution, and simply convicted Trump? If they had somehow managed to nominate anyone halfway normal in the primary (a difficult feat, I know), I bet we'd be looking at an absolutely blowout in favor of Team Red.

8/10/2024 4:05:56 PM

a Nikki Haley vs Kamala Harris election would have been fascinating

and this is definitely far from over. clinton was 70-80% odds to win in 2016 and we all know how that turned out. even if kamala keeps pulling ahead and ends up in similar odds by November, I won't rest easy until she's inaugurated

[Edited on August 10, 2024 at 4:13 PM. Reason : i'm just glad we have a chance now]

8/10/2024 4:11:03 PM

I wouldn't even discount the idea that it would be Haley (for example) vs Biden. I'm not certain Biden would have frozen and stood there mouth agape at Haley, because she would have, you know, said at least some things that resembled reality and followed a logical train of thought.

8/10/2024 5:37:15 PM

Thanks to Joe for (finally) standing down.

As to why he apparently thought he was up for it in the first place, that also puzzles me.

8/10/2024 5:46:53 PM

I haven't watched it yet so not sure if it addresses that question, but I've got this on my to watch list





[Edited on August 10, 2024 at 5:58 PM. Reason : "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the one who wins" -Haley]

8/10/2024 5:57:39 PM

Donald Trump is only 78, so free pass.

8/10/2024 6:04:18 PM

Kamala is on track to flip Georgia in the next week and North Carolina in the next 2 weeks, barring some misstep.

She’s launching a more defined policy platform this week so we’ll see…

If she wins both ga and NC this cycle, that should break the MAGA fever in the gop

8/13/2024 9:44:12 PM

Quote :

"Kamala is on track to flip Georgia in the next week and North Carolina in the next 2 weeks, barring some misstep"

PredictIt has been giving a modest edge to Dems in GA for at least a week or so.

Quote :

"If she wins both ga and NC this cycle, that should break the MAGA fever in the gop"

Yeah I'll believe that when I see it. It might help for Trump to lose another election. It might help that he won't be viably able to ever run again. Hopefully he goes to prison, which would help.

...but I think he'll still be the de facto leader in a kingmaker role...and even if he somehow isn't, I think the GOP is reshaped into a MAGA-ish party now even without him. People like me aren't going to return overnight, even if Trump is gone. I know I will never vote for any Republican who carried water for Trump, at least after he proved to be as bad as we feared he would be. Like, anyone who failed to hold him accountable in the 2020 election aftermath is 100% irredeemable in my book, no matter what they say or do going forward.

8/14/2024 6:54:13 PM

Quote :

"Kamala is on track to flip Georgia in the next week and North Carolina in the next 2 weeks, barring some misstep."

That...isn't how this works. The trendline isn't predictive. It's entirely possible that she will poll ahead in those states, but there's not a "track."

Quote :

"If she wins both ga and NC this cycle, that should break the MAGA fever in the gop"

No. Or at least, probably not in a good way. Parties evolve, as is normal. But the last few iterations of Republican evolution in this country have been much nastier, with each turning on and consuming the one before it. Paul Ryan was a member of the once-fringe Tea Party; MAGA chewed him up and spit him out as being too establishment. The groundwork is already being laid for the same to happen to MAGA. Marjorie Taylor Greene, of all people, has been kicked out of the Freedom Caucus for not towing the line enough. Trump isn't immune; The new fringe has already started turning on him; look at Nick Fuentes and his "groyper war."

So yeah, his hold may loosen, but whatever follows a Trump defeat will not be an improvement. You'll need several cycles of convincing and decisive election victories to snuff out the extremists' influence, which unfortunately means you need many years in a row of peace and prosperity. No matter how crazy the opposition is, they're always one economic downturn away from being in the driver's seat.

8/15/2024 1:59:14 PM

^

first quote response, lol

second, it could go either way depending on who is in key positions in power within the GOP on the not so visible side be it existing congressmen or party officials or influential people. I could see it going either way with my guess being it's really snuffed out after Trump is over unless, well what I said at the start of the sentence. I think you're exaggerating but it comes down to "luck" on if someone emerges and how intelligent they are. i dont know enough about gop internal politics to give a sure guess

moron is right and wrong, but the crux of the issue is... what is "the GOP"? because when we say itll end the maga fever it assumes you have a sensible establishment, even if "evil" or whatever, but people who'll change course. does that exist?

[Edited on August 15, 2024 at 4:22 PM. Reason : 1]

8/15/2024 4:20:01 PM

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Slight dip in the polling for Kamala. Maybe the mockery is getting too much for people? Maybe people are starting to like Vance a bit more?

8/15/2024 4:22:59 PM

^
Could be, but I think you're getting overanalytical... is that a word, I don't even know anymore. Sure it could be a surge reseting to the mean or an error or this or that, it's like reading the small dips and rises of a stock within just a week and wondering why each one happened while losing the big picture. The way I see it you have to be primarily subjective to properly value the objective.

Also, this will be good news to many (lol), but I think I will try to comment less on the Soap Box unless I know in some detail what I'm talking about. A lot of the times I think even when writing out something decent I'm wasting time trying to make an opinion about something that may not matter or is just necessary. Better to be more productive than to just chat off of intuition... without also something substantive.

8/15/2024 4:29:57 PM

^just add more question marks
It’s called the Socratic method

8/15/2024 5:23:29 PM

yes

8/15/2024 5:28:49 PM

Quote :

"Slight dip in the polling for Kamala."

Where are you seeing a recent dip in the blue line at the link you shared?

8/15/2024 7:30:28 PM

Quote :

"Also, this will be good news to many (lol), but I think I will try to comment less on the Soap Box unless I know in some detail what I'm talking about."

Fuck that, man. This is America, you don't have to know what the hell you are talking about to just spew nonsense. Hell, look at me!

8/15/2024 10:28:13 PM

Quote :

"Maybe people are starting to like Vance a bit more?"

LOL. The best comparison I can think of to Vance campaigning is Sideshow Bob stepping on all the rakes.

There were a couple of weeks of news cycles dominated by Kamala, which saw her surge. Now that we're in the lull between "new VP pick" and "DNC," she's not the headline as much. That's a way more likely explanation than Eyeliner Vance suddenly becoming more popular.

Quote :

"it could go either way depending on who is in key positions in power within the GOP on the not so visible side be it existing congressmen or party officials or influential people"

I guess, maybe? But the recent history of the Republican party has been people in key positions of power being either absorbed or destroyed by a new, more extreme iteration. The Neocons got swept out by the Tea Party which got swept out by MAGA, in each case following a defeat at the hands of Democrats. You could even argue that MAGA has already been subsumed by Q-Anon/Anti-vax/flat Earth weirdos who don't have a catchy name yet.

With each iteration, people in key positions of power within government have either been swept aside (Boehner, Ryan, McCarthy) or have been forced to submit to the new order (McConnell). Those outside the government have generally kept supporting anyone who isn't a Democrat, no matter how loony tunes they are (Koch brothers, etc.).

In some ways, I'm jealous; it'd be nice to see some more radical moves within the Democratic party. On the other hand, the centrist gerontocracy in charge of the Dems has managed to allow significant progress in key areas (healthcare, LGBT rights) without going bugnuts crazy, which might be worth slower progress on other things (labor, taxes, immigration).

8/16/2024 8:47:49 AM

Kamala with a .1% lead in nc in Nate silvers aggregate

8/17/2024 6:49:17 PM

Quote :

"That...isn't how this works. The trendline isn't predictive. It's entirely possible that she will poll ahead in those states, but there's not a "track." "

concur

Quote :

"Paul Ryan was a member of the once-fringe Tea Party; MAGA chewed him up and spit him out as being too establishment. The groundwork is already being laid for the same to happen to MAGA. Marjorie Taylor Greene, of all people, has been kicked out of the Freedom Caucus for not towing the line enough."

Partly concur. I would argue that there was an intermediate step where the Tea Party, originally largely a group of small government movement conservatives (like Paul Ryan), pushing back against "compassionate conservatives", neocons, etc, in short order metastasized into the [Crazyass Ridiculous] Tea Party, which chewed up an spat out Boehner, which paved the way for Paul Ryan to be Speaker. I don't recall Paul Ryan ever being what I'd call fringe, though. I think he just didn't go batshit when the Tea Party became the Crazyass Tea Party--that's not really who Paul Ryan is, I don't think.

I also don't think MTG got booted for "not toeing the line" enough. I think that even the Freedom Caucus can see that her dumb ass is a liability, and all of the squabbling between her and Boebert meant that there was only room for one of them, and MTG was the most distasteful of the two.

At any rate, I do agree that Trump will likely be a major, and perhaps the major force within GOP politics even if he loses this election...and to whatever extent he isn't, his shitty spawn will be. I completely agree that it will take numerous cycles of shattering ass-whoopings at the ballot box to drive the deplorables back to where they belong.

[Edited on August 18, 2024 at 12:34 AM. Reason : ]

8/18/2024 12:34:05 AM

Quote :

"With each iteration, people in key positions of power within government have either been swept aside (Boehner, Ryan, McCarthy) or have been forced to submit to the new order (McConnell). Those outside the government have generally kept supporting anyone who isn't a Democrat, no matter how loony tunes they are (Koch brothers, etc.). "

McCarthy submitted to the new order. He submitted much more thoroughly, cravenly, and deeply than did McConnell.

...and then got swept aside.

and the Kochs prob aren't the best example there, as Charles Koch as well as AFP have famously and vehemently opposed, at a minimum, Donald Trump.

Quote :

"In some ways, I'm jealous; it'd be nice to see some more radical moves within the Democratic party. On the other hand, the centrist gerontocracy in charge of the Dems has managed to allow significant progress in key areas (healthcare, LGBT rights) without going bugnuts crazy, which might be worth slower progress on other things (labor, taxes, immigration)."

Oh goddamn, hell no. The last thing we need is more crazy or more extreme ideological fervor. I'm very glad that the Dems are, to borrow a phrase from P.J. O'Rourke, simply "wrong within normal parameters."

[Edited on August 18, 2024 at 12:43 AM. Reason : why the fuck do my italics tags keep auto-capitalizing nowadays?]

8/18/2024 12:43:17 AM

Quote :

"why the fuck do my italics tags keep auto-capitalizing nowadays?"

Are you using the button to insert, or typing out the tags manually? It's some kind of autocorrect for a single letter "i".

8/18/2024 7:30:58 AM

it does it either way. big PITA. only recently started doing it.

Maybe a software update in Safari?

8/18/2024 8:44:46 AM

You can disable auto-capitalization or try an automatic text replacement for what it is replacing it with. Replace the replacement! I just tried it, and it seems to work on iOS (the replacement), but you must follow the example carefully. I had it swapped around the first time I tried.

8/18/2024 8:54:55 AM

Trump comes out in support of using police to mass confiscate people’s guns

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/C--vTAOg5Q5/?xmt=AQGz7DQkhkmjq0H_FTrc6FzhrPK8R2m4UAZ7KbyQeahUBA

Would be funny is trump’s asinine mewling is what shifts the Overton window on this issue…

8/22/2024 1:26:17 PM

Harris breaking 50% in some recent polls

8/22/2024 9:13:04 PM

I am chronically online and legitimately do not understand the Kennedy spoiler threat. Is him dropping out and endorsing Trump going to matter or is this a last-ditch call on the part of Trump. Please, I have a match tonight.

8/22/2024 9:51:34 PM

^pay for play....Harris didn't return his phone calls about and endorsement for cabinet position and became butt hurt and then went to Trump with same offer. Of course Trump said yes (he never lies right?).

[Edited on August 24, 2024 at 1:54 PM. Reason : W]

8/24/2024 1:52:35 PM

Would you want this guy in a cabinet position?

8/24/2024 2:42:11 PM

Secretary of Bear Disposal

8/24/2024 3:39:51 PM

8/24/2024 9:18:55 PM

Quote :

"Is him dropping out and endorsing Trump going to matter or is this a last-ditch call on the part of Trump"

I don't think it's going change very many votes, though of course in an election this close even a small effect can turn the outcome. The way I figure it, most of the ~10% or so of people polled who say they support RFK fall into one of these camps:

1) Cranks who were pulling the pollster's chain
2) People who were never actually going to vote anyway
3) People who were always going to vote for Trump anyway but didn't want to say so for whatever reason
4) People who didn't want to vote for either major party and still won't

It's a vanishingly small number of people who are thinking, "RFK Jr. seems like a highly intelligent person and if he says Trump is the way to go then Trump it is."

My guess is the numbers will dilute pretty heavily with most of the RFK crowd settling into "undecided" or some other third party candidate, with a very modest Trump boost (and possibly a smaller boost for Harris as well).

8/26/2024 9:20:21 AM

Solid analysis!

8/26/2024 10:44:11 AM

^^ of the 2 RFK supporters i personally know, one is a 3, the other is a 2

8/26/2024 12:00:03 PM

Were they quirky black people or run-of-the-mill white people?

8/26/2024 7:25:02 PM

I've received 4 Trump flyers in the mail in the last week.

And my neighbor still has his RFK sign in his yard.

8/27/2024 9:23:27 AM

^^
The latter. C student to middle manager types

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

For the first time in Nate’s tabulation Kamala has the lead in Georgia. Exactly tied in NC

Kamala is leading in every other swing state except Florida— but she’s closing the gap in Florida.

Still extremely tenuous leads, trumps ads I’ve been seeing on Hulu have more truthy-ness than his public statements. I feel like this Arlington National Cemetery thing hurts trump, seems disgusting.

The last debate pushed Joe out, so I think people will be keeping a close eye on the next debates— could be a deciding factor given how close everything still is.

8/29/2024 1:15:06 PM

“The media would tell you that Harris is winning, but the heart of America will tell you that Trump’s got it made,” said Kirk Deatrick, who said he stopped trusting Fox News when the network parted ways with Tucker Carlson.

He added of Democrats, “I think if they don’t cheat, I think he’ll win by a huge amount,” predicting an 80-20 margin of victory for Trump “if it was a fair and honest election, and illegal people don’t vote and they don’t use cheating.”






“We need God’s help, and I’m praying he’ll transition this thing peacefully, but if not, that’s where I come in,” said 62-year-old Richard McLeod, who said he was a member of two Michigan militias. He added: “I’m standing my ground. I’m fighting ‘til I die. And I want to make the other side die for their cause.”


https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/29/trump-michigan-maga-faithful-polls-win-00176808

Holy delusion, Batman. Like, even by MAGA standards.

[Edited on August 30, 2024 at 12:07 AM. Reason : i]

8/30/2024 12:07:13 AM

I think it's fairly typical by MAGA standards, definitely not an outlier

8/30/2024 12:12:48 AM

I know they don't believe polls.

(or data, or evidence, or facts in general).

...but 80/20? Uhhhhhh...yeah that's batshit even by MAGA standards.

8/30/2024 12:46:28 AM

Average Trump supporter probably believes a more modest 75-25 split lol

8/30/2024 1:10:38 AM

Half of them think Trump is still currently the president, so optimistic polling doesn't seem at all out of the ordinary for them

8/30/2024 1:15:05 AM

I am a not-very-fit ROTC-washout entering his 40s, but I am 99% confident in my ability to defeat 62-year-old Richard McLeod. That raises to 100% if you replace me with the dumbest guy in the Michigan National Guard's 126th Signal Company, based in Kalamazoo.

8/30/2024 8:41:24 AM

Quote :

"“It’s kind of like the rabbit and the sloth,” said Dan Danger, a 67-year-old retired truck driver of Hartford, who wore a camouflage Trump 2024 hat and a red, white and blue T-shirt featuring no fewer than 31 Trump faces emblazoned on it. “Have you ever seen a sloth? They have no brain. They work really slow. And that’s Harris.”"

Did he mean the tortoise and the hare? (spoiler: the tortoise wins) Sloths have no brains?

[Edited on August 30, 2024 at 11:17 AM. Reason : ]

8/30/2024 11:16:19 AM

Sloths do in fact have brains.

8/30/2024 11:23:58 AM

Dan Danger

8/31/2024 8:36:47 AM