^^
https://archive.is/yw0dE

9/21/2024 12:56:16 AM

https://www.elon.edu/u/elon-poll/

Kamala +1 in NC

9/24/2024 11:00:51 AM

Sorry, but I can't trust the Elon Musk Twitter poll.

9/24/2024 12:05:14 PM

Polling wise this is the closest election in my life. It’s closer than Hillary-Trump in 2016

Doesn’t make any sense… he’s talking about mass deportations being bloody affairs, he’s leading chants to deport Haitians who are legally allowed to live here

I guess it’s the same problem Hillary had. Kamala can talk about normal political stuff and it doesn’t break through.

9/24/2024 6:04:42 PM

This country is stupid.

9/24/2024 6:42:18 PM

Have the polls gotten smart enough in the past 8 years to compensate for Trump's outperformance, or are we sunk?

9/24/2024 8:31:34 PM

Impossible to say for sure at this point, but there are people whose assessments I think hold weight who are in agreement that most polling is over compensating, and in a pretty simplistic way - basically just adding something to whatever Trump numbers they get, either because they haven't really figured out how to account statistically for past results, or because they want to create the appearance of a closer race.

The inherent optimism in that assessment makes me skeptical, but the I see the logic. Certainly there's a lot of polling that has shown results that cannot be attempted to be believed - things like the youth and black votes shifting massively in Trump's direction since 2020. And their response rates have got to be so cockeyed at this point I don't know how you get anything out of them. Like I said before, only the criminally insane or terminally senescent answer calls from unknown numbers. Online polls are a joke.

Perhaps more telling is the candidates' behavior at the moment, which to me suggests that internal polling from both sides shows the Democrats doing well. Harris is behaving like someone who is winning and doesn't want to fuck it up. Trump is acting like someone who is behind and increasingly desperate.

9/25/2024 8:56:16 AM

Don't forget that Cheeto's sole reason for running, beside self-aggrandizement, is to stay out of jail. He loses this election, and he's toast. That's got to add to his desperation

9/25/2024 10:20:41 AM

If the polls were showing a comfortable lead for Democrats nationally or in battleground states, it might depress the turnout among those with short memories who again (somehow) assume it's in the bag. Keeping it close may help motivate otherwise apathetic voters to come out. I don't know, I'm just spitballing.

9/25/2024 11:24:00 AM

^^I used to think that, too, but actually I don't think the threat of jailtime weighs on him much. He has plenty of reasons to think he'll never see the inside of a cell - past experience, his major influence over the courts, the logistical challenges of actually incarcerating a former POTUS. If anything I think he wants to shut down the cases just for the sheer smug satisfaction of it.

9/25/2024 3:30:13 PM

Quote :

"which to me suggests that internal polling from both sides shows the Democrats doing well."

a question for a poli sci dude that I've always wondered about:

what makes their internal polling different from major news polls, polling organizations, university conducted polls, etc?

9/25/2024 7:18:56 PM

They're much more targeted both in terms of the questions and the people polled. The candidate is asking questions about very specific things - policies, likes and dislikes, whatever - and they're asking a sample tailored to be representative of whatever group they're trying to influence. Internal polls are probably also somewhat higher in quality across the board, since candidates have incentive to spring for the best in a way that media outlets just don't.

9/26/2024 2:08:29 PM

In a way people willing to participate almost seems like it'd give some kind of skewed reflection of reality, but I guess it could be that way on each side...the skewness cancels each other out. In so far as there are die hards for trump and die hards for libs.

9/26/2024 7:03:42 PM

Interesting point. Helene may impact the election.

https://twitter.com/TimBoyumTV/status/1839825681741455495

9/27/2024 9:08:50 PM

Don't help them in Hickville Trump counties, though.

9/27/2024 10:19:13 PM

The only way to have a fair election is in-person paper ballots that are all counted up the same day!

9/27/2024 10:42:33 PM

Oh, that's right! How could I forget. Otherwise it's cheating and a sham election.

9/28/2024 8:15:03 AM

Quote :

"The only way to have a fair election is in-person paper ballots"

I really hate how the right turned election security and paper ballots in particular into a partisan issue. I spent a good amount of time in 2019 advocating for paper ballots over alternatives.

a friend of mine (who is a Democrat) had to sue Wake County Board of Elections because they banned her from attending public meetings, just because she was vocal about paper ballots being the best way to provide the public transparency on elections.

https://www.thisweekinthetriangle.com/p/exclusive-wake-co-paid-10k-to-settle

9/28/2024 9:40:29 AM