There are tons of polls coming and the national ones were better for HRC. Makes sense...

Yougov/CBS PA poll has me like

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 3:49 PM. Reason : X]

11/7/2016 3:48:39 PM

Quote :

"LOL at 538 updating it's site every few hours to show a higher chance of a Clinton victory. It updated only once yesterday."

it's all automated - they have bots that update it whenever a new poll gets fed in. lots of polls today i guess

11/7/2016 3:54:02 PM

Quote :

""LOL at 538 updating it's site every few hours to show a higher chance of a Clinton victory. It updated only once yesterday.""

This is contending for one of the dumbest comments on page 28, and that's a really low bar

11/7/2016 3:56:08 PM

What's this with "Pepperidge Farm Remember"? (i know where the saying comes from)

I've seen multiple political posts on facebook over the last few days that use the phrase. Like "Remember when Obama said Clinton wasn't fit to be President? Pepperidge Farm Remembers". Did Hannity use it recently or something?

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 4:26 PM. Reason : ]

11/7/2016 4:26:29 PM

family guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2QVjp4KEjU

11/7/2016 4:33:39 PM

My official prediction

11/7/2016 4:37:28 PM

^^yeah, i remember that, just seem to have seen it a lot in the last few days and was wondering if someone resurrected it.

11/7/2016 4:42:14 PM

^^I concur on all but 2 or 3 states that you have blue I think will go red, but not enough for Trump to win.

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 4:43 PM. Reason : -]

11/7/2016 4:43:16 PM

^^^ same but I do think Trump ekes out NC (Hispanic turnout and specifically the unwillingness of usual GOP voting cubans to vote Trump costs him FL).

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 4:44 PM. Reason : X]

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 4:47 PM. Reason : Oops and AZ goes trump too]

11/7/2016 4:43:50 PM

i think it's just an easily recyclable meme - folks on r/the_donald don't have a lot of creativity

11/7/2016 4:43:55 PM

Quote :

"Already, more than 6.4 million total voters have cast their ballots in the state — equal to 75 percent of the final turnout in 2012. In total, as many Hispanic voters have already cast ballots in Florida’s early voting period as cast ballots in all of 2012."

(not so) Bold prediction: Florida will be called for Clinton by 10PM EST and so will the election. If Trump wins Ohio (or any other Obama state other than Iowa), it will well after Clinton has already been declared the winner.

11/7/2016 4:52:46 PM

^^^NC and AZ were also the ones I'm thinking go Red. Maybe Florida.

11/7/2016 4:54:46 PM

Since I don't know of a better thread in which to post this:

The Upshot currently gives the Democrats a 56% chance of taking the Senate

FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Republicans a 54% chance of keeping the Senate

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html#other-forecasts

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 5:24 PM. Reason : ]

11/7/2016 5:18:24 PM

Quote :

"this is contending for one of the dumbest comments on page 28, and that's a really low bar"

I honestly didn't know. Whoops.

11/7/2016 8:05:35 PM

Jesus Hillary can be a boring speech giver

11/7/2016 9:52:06 PM

howcome when trump says african americans are in inner cities its racist but when hillary throws a rap festival in cleveland its what america is all about

11/7/2016 10:11:34 PM

Hillary Clinton has won Dixville Notch 4-2-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson-and a write-in for Romney). The presidential candidate receiving the highest number of votes in Dixville has gone on to win the national election in 2000, 2004, and 2008...with a 2012 tie between Obama and Romney.

11/8/2016 4:19:01 AM

Finally. The day where on Twitter hundreds of thousands of cases of either voter fraud or suppression will cause a candidate to lose. Where eggs become exit poll gurus. And Bill Mitchell has a nervous breakdown.

^^ point me to one place where people call him racist for saying blacks live in inner cities. I call him an idiot for saying it's so bad people can't walk down the street without getting shot though.

** If Clinton wins I will genuinely feel sympathy for those GOP who didn't want this (rjrumfel) or those people who really don't like Clinton (even JCE) but, Earls tears will just be so delicious.

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 6:03 AM. Reason : X]

11/8/2016 5:59:12 AM

No matter what happens today we'll have 4 years of a shitty, shitty President.

Now, I'm off to go vote before work.

11/8/2016 6:16:24 AM

Regarding the RCP polls for states. Did a super-PAC commission a shit load of R leaning pollsters? I noticed PA was a toss-up, looked and literally 60% of the polls had (R) next to them..

11/8/2016 7:53:26 AM

why do you expect me to be upset? ive known hillary was going to win longer than anyone. ill be shocked if she doesnt win. im also not expectimg stein to reach 5%. thats the only way i can win this election. my tears all came when bernie endorsed clinton. he was supposed to fight her to the end.

when things are bad and have always been bad, you dont cry when they stay bad. we are tough by now after 8 years of neoliberlism disguising itself as progressivism and giving it a bad reputation

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 8:38 AM. Reason : strange because i fall into both categories of people you will be sad for. ]

11/8/2016 8:37:11 AM

Quote :

"(not so) Bold prediction: Florida will be called for Clinton by 10PM EST and so will the election. If Trump wins Ohio (or any other Obama state other than Iowa), it will well after Clinton has already been declared the winner."

I have assumed for a while that the media will be calling it for Clinton well before the polls have even closed. I assume when I get home from voting and turn on the TV they will already be saying Clinton won. Well except for Fox News they will hold out till the very end I would imagine.

11/8/2016 8:51:43 AM

Quote :

"he was supposed to fight her to the end. "

My thoughts on the Bernie situation are that if it had been literally any other R candidate other than Trump (and maybe Cruz) he would've stuck to his guns. Whatever the case, Trump would do more to set back pretty much all of Bernie's goals than Clintion would. At least he got some concessions out of her (for now), and will get a chance to continue to push his issues.

11/8/2016 8:54:58 AM

Hey E Man...betting sites still have Clinton at only 80%, you have her at what, 99%?

A bit of an arbitrage opportunity for someone that's so sure isn't it?

11/8/2016 9:05:23 AM

Three tiny New Hampshire towns opened their polls at 12:01am and closed them after 100% voter turnout.

Dixville Notch: Clinton 4, Trump 2, Gary Johnson 1, Mitt Romney (write-in) 1

In 2012, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each got 5.

Hart's Location: Trump 17, Clinton 14, Gary Johnson 3, Bernie Sanders (write-in) 2, John Kasich/Sanders (write-in) 1

In 2012, Obama 23, Romney 9, Gary Johnson 1

Millsfield: Trump 16, Clinton 4, Sanders (write-in) 1

So the current NH total:

Trump 35, Clinton 22, Johnson 4, Sanders 3, Romney 1, Kasich 1

Actually a lot of write-ins. And 14% of the electorate so far are not voting for the blowhard asshole or the corrupt scumbag! The intelligent 14%!

11/8/2016 9:11:08 AM

Write-ins getting more votes than Dr. WiFi would be a great prop bet, and the second thing I want the most out of tonight.

11/8/2016 9:27:00 AM

I wasn't wondering if Harambe could possibly beat her?

I did see on twitter that she made her closing argument with RT..

11/8/2016 9:33:14 AM

well the people of america are brainwashed so we can't put anything past them. The romney brainwashing still hasn't worn off for some people.

also, 80% is not much of a profit when you factor in commission. its not worth having money tied up.

11/8/2016 10:37:09 AM

I, for one, am looking forward to seeing less Earl posts in TSB. And once Doeren is fired, less Earl posts in ST.

11/8/2016 10:40:01 AM

way to slip out of that one

how about this....I loan you a thousand bucks...if she wins you get back a total of 1,222.22. You give me back my thousand plus fifty, and you keep the rest

If you're so sure she's going to win you'd take that and since it's not your money it doesn't matter that it's tied up

OR, you could just admit that you're not 95% sure that she's got it in the bag and stop talking like that

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 10:42 AM. Reason : asdf]

11/8/2016 10:41:31 AM

IM 100% SURE SHES GOING TO WIN BUT I DONT NEED TO JUMP THROUGH HOOPS TO MAKE 200 DOLLARS. ITS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SHADY GAMBLING COMPANY WOULD TAKE 4 MONTHS TO SEND IT BACK OR SCREW ME THAN THE CHANCE OF TRUMP WINNING

I have a stack of unposted threads in my document folder. I have material for days.

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 10:44 AM. Reason : TRUMP LOST WHEN HE CAME DOWN THOSE MECHANICAL STAIRS]

11/8/2016 10:43:14 AM

yeah man, really having to jump through some major hoops for free money

11/8/2016 10:56:15 AM

I don't worship money like you democrats. I don't have a lot but I have enough and am not endlessly trying to figure out how i can get MOAR AND MOAR.

11/8/2016 11:04:38 AM

11/8/2016 11:15:05 AM

I'm offering you free money...you can take that and turn around and give it to the Green party.

11/8/2016 11:16:55 AM

^^^ lol you're such a clown

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 11:17 AM. Reason : lol]

11/8/2016 11:17:01 AM

I think the 3 biggest factors that will drive election results are:

- The electorate is more diverse than 2012

- Turnout is tracking to exceed 2012, especially in critical battleground states

- Trump is getting less support from registered Rs than both Romney and McCain

There is no shy Trumpkin voter, or a horde of people who will come down from the hills and vote for Trump. On the contrary, I think there's a lot of self-identified conservatives and Rs who will vote for Hillary because, well ..... they aren't fucking crazy. Obama outperformed his polling in both '08 and '12, and I think his GOTV machine that Hillary inherited will do the same. The Comey letter and timing of the Obamacare premium news did some damage, for sure, so I'm not as bullish as I was say, 2 weeks ago. I still think she wins between 320 and 340 EVs (Ohio and Arizona are the only true tossups IMO), Dems take the Senate, and take a healthy bite out of the R House majority.

....

Also this,

Quote :

"Dirty Fishgrease ?@Fishbooom Trump is mass-revoking press credentials for his event tonight. Interesting. Well, no, illuminating."

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 12:04 PM. Reason : .]

11/8/2016 11:58:39 AM

trump is +1 over Romney's margin with non-college whites. meanwhile, per Dave Wasserman:

America's voting eligible population growth, '12-'16 (per Census):

Non-Hispanic White: +2.7%
Black: +7.1%
Hispanic: +14.0%
Asian: +13.5%

it'll be interesting to see if NC minority voters can overcome the blatant voter disenfranchisement efforts by the NCGOP

also:



[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 12:03 PM. Reason : .]

11/8/2016 12:01:06 PM

Just to preempt the 538 skeptics out there who might start picking them apart over missing some states:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

Quote :

"We’re Probably Going To ‘Miss’ Some States This Time In 2012, FiveThirtyEight got every state and Washington, D.C., right in its final election forecast. Other forecasters also nailed the result — or came very close. Don’t expect the same perfect score this time. Far more states’ presidential races are very, very close. It’s possible our forecast will get every state “right,” but it’s unlikely. On average, across all our simulations in our final polls-only forecast — our default for the presidential race — we “miss” about five or six states; based on our final forecast in 2012, we’d have expected to miss between one and two. (This counts Washington, D.C., but doesn’t include the five congressional-district-level races in Maine and Nebraska.) The Senate also has lots of very close races; on average, we’d expect to “miss” three. I’m using quotation marks around “right” and “miss” because the forecast is probabilistic in nature. If you make 10 predictions that each give the favorite a 60 percent chance, you should get about six of them “right” and “miss” four. If all 10 of your favorites win, your forecast probably is miscalibrated. The number of expected misses above are means, not medians, by the way. They’re somewhat skewed by the possibility of a really major miss across the board, which also shows up in some spikes at the extreme edges in our probability distributions for the Electoral College. The more typical result is three or four misses — and they could cancel each other out. But if they don’t, the misses might really add up because some states with lots of electoral votes — including Florida, North Carolina and Ohio — are close to toss-ups."

STATISTICS! NUMBERS! PERCENTAGES!

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 12:14 PM. Reason : asdf]

11/8/2016 12:13:53 PM

I think 538's model is pretty solid overall, but I definitely see Silver as far more of a pundit this election cycle than in the previous two. He went from being a relatively obscure and unknown figure in 2008 to a widely recognized political analyst, regardless of whether it was his intention or not. I'm not saying he's a total hack, but it's hard to deny how much exposure 538 has now versus before.

11/8/2016 12:19:03 PM

11/8/2016 12:38:08 PM

i enjoy listening to the 538 podcast, but i find them slipping in to punditry more than I would like. silver especially seems to partake too much in the false equivalency pattern that has plagued this cycle. not as egregious as some, but an undercurrent is certainly there.

11/8/2016 12:48:45 PM

Quote :

"Jim SciuttoVerified account ?@jimsciutto Breaking: #Trump files Nevada voting lawsuit vs. Clark County Registrar, they allege, for keeping polls open “2 hours beyond..closing time""

11/8/2016 1:01:45 PM

I agree they're all biased over there. But their whole business model revolves around their ability to get things as right as possible, so I don't doubt for a second that they're doing their best to provide accurate, non-partisan analysis of where the races actually stand in terms of numbers

11/8/2016 1:11:37 PM

I'm skeptical that any organization that has to spend tons of time and energy performing extensive data analysis is entirely altruistic and unbiased and non-partisan. Not sure how they are able to sustain themselves financially, so support has to be coming from one place or another. But I do think they are most concerned about considering all factors and playing it safe than any of the other guys. Huff Po's 98% percent prediction is a joke by comparison.

[Edited on November 8, 2016 at 1:38 PM. Reason : .]

11/8/2016 1:38:09 PM

I just don't see any reason to change the numbers anyways. There's no damning proof that giving one side better numbers helps in any way. There's conflicting evidence that it both helps to suppress the other side (because they think they've already lost) and that it helps to suppress your side (because they think they've already won). Plus, again, like I said, if they get it wrong, how does that help their traffic?

11/8/2016 1:54:35 PM

The main page for both HuffPo and CNN are absolutely unbearable.

11/8/2016 1:56:12 PM

538 has incentive to get it right, not be partisan. No one other than blind Republicans thinks Rasmussen is anything other than a joke, 538 doesn't want to become that and if they did their value would plummet

11/8/2016 2:02:53 PM

The numbers are non-partisan, the analysis is not.

Quote :

"my tears all came when bernie endorsed clinton. he was supposed to fight her to the end. "

If he had continued to fight her, Trump would win this election. And then there would be zero chance of any of his policies to become a reality...minimum wage, citizens united, healthcare, college tuition...all gone.

Quote :

"I have assumed for a while that the media will be calling it for Clinton well before the polls have even closed"

They can't call an individual state until that state's polls have closed, so my guess is it gets called when California closes.

11/8/2016 2:04:27 PM

Quote :

"They can't call an individual state until that state's polls have closed, so my guess is it gets called when California closes."

How quickly we forget Florida/2000.

11/8/2016 2:14:49 PM