I agree with you on several points.

If you are directing your statements towards the extremists, I concur. I remember as far back as 2003 reading the crap like

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

those are little more than amusement. The point where you know something has gotten serious is when rational people start talking about it. And TOD is host to people on all parts of the spectrum, the common thread is that a problem is perceived. The posts, as I understand, are not peer reviewed in any sense, but it matters little because any experienced internet-er should have a thick filter on their mind anyway.

Quote :

"I do give the peakers credit for helping people realize the resource is finite"

hear hear

Quote :

"but I also give them part credit for this run up in oil prices which has helped to screw the world economy and delay legitimate production projects."

I only agree with this qualified with "too fast". If the price of resources skyrockets because of a new finite-Earth economic model, then that's called the market fixing our inevitable problems that no one else will fix. However, $50 / barrel oil resulting from this is unfortunate because it stifles other investment that we seriously need.

11/25/2008 12:52:37 PM

My statement would have been qualified with too fast, so we are on agreement with this as well.

I dont find theoildrum even remotely balanced. The kooks post much more (like Gail the Actuary) than moderates like Robert Rapier. The kooks are selling fear and panic and bleakness, and are just as guilty about assuming the worst, as they criticize CERA/IEA/EIA about being guilty for assuming the best.

There must be balance.

11/25/2008 1:08:17 PM

Quote :

"Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession that’s slashing fuel demand around the world spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said. Global oil demand will contract in 2009 as economic growth slows to its weakest since 1982, Merrill Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch said in a report today. In October, when oil was around $100 a barrel, the bank predicted that prices may slide to $50. Crude traded at $45.30 in New York today, the lowest since February 2005. “A temporary drop below $25 a barrel is possible if the global recession extends to China and significant non-OPEC cuts are required,” Blanch said. “In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations.” Crude hasn’t fallen below $25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange since November 2002. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acgAzpwrcUfQ&refer=home

But hey, what the fuck does Merrill Lynch know? They are only paid to make forecasts like this, thats all.

12/4/2008 11:16:02 AM

This is the only gloriously awesome thing about this global recession.

FUCK OPEC AND THE A-RABS.

12/4/2008 12:01:55 PM

Well, I think the analysts dont really have an educated chance of really determining the price of oil in this market. That doesnt mean they cant get lucky, but there are so many variables that are unknown that could wildly affect the market. Many of the most respected firms were saying we'd stay above 100 for years...

12/4/2008 1:17:42 PM

^^ ditto

12/4/2008 1:23:31 PM

peak oil?

what you talking about willis

shit is < $45/bbl

12/4/2008 1:34:47 PM

Quote :

"But hey, what the fuck does Merrill Lynch know? They are only paid to make forecasts like this, thats all."

I can't believe you would make such a fucktard comment. If an educated analysis showed that oil would clearly fall below $25 / barrel in Jan 2009 then hey, guess what? Jan 2009 futures would be trading at $25 / barrel.

If you want the best available measure of the future value of something in the whole wide world, it's called the price.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLF09.NYM

Someone making the argument that there is a large chance of a low price, regardless of their credibility, in no way precludes the chance of a high price occurring. You know this, but somehow the stupid bug got your posting today.

12/4/2008 6:43:09 PM

peak oil, pfft.


hahaha.

12/4/2008 7:09:21 PM

http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/12/02/2008-12-02T173401Z_01_L2183579_RTRIDST_0_OPEC-OIL-SURVEY-UPDATE-2.html
It turns out that everyone gave OPEC too much credit. Of the 1.5 mbpd cut called for at the last meeting only 66% of it has been actually cut and the vast majority of that was from Gulf members otherwise known as price doves where-as almost no cuts were evident from OPEC's price-hawks Iran and Venezuela.

12/6/2008 1:55:43 AM