I agree with Lavim on this one. I think there are a lot of people who will be motivated by this pick.

She *is* a high-risk pick, in that she is clearly untested in the national spotlight, but I imagine McCain has no illusions that he needs to take some chances.

For otherwise conservative-leaning women who are pro-choice, their aging demographics could make Roe v Wade a much lower issue then it was 16 years ago.

The creationalism bit could bite her, but they will probably just work to make it a non-issue - a state's rights type of play.

She is either the perfect or the worst possible match for McCain's personality. - it sounds like they have the same maverick personality, so it just depends on whether they work well together or end up wanting to kill each other.

But it is a fantastic counter to Obama's change theme and the Dems message of McCain=Bush.
Just from the little bit I've seen, it seems like the Alaska Republican pretty much abandoned her after she had no qualms about blowing the whistle on them.

She also will draw media attention that has been lacking. The excitment she provides will also draw a lot of money.

Hell, if nothing else, it is a great pick for a political junky looking for an exciting campaign.

8/29/2008 1:23:06 PM

Fair enough, but I read it here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

8/29/2008 1:23:21 PM

Quote :

"the Democrat attack machine"

8/29/2008 1:23:35 PM

Palin might have been a good choice, in that it could have gotten the disaffected Hillary supporters as it obviously was calculated to do... but McCain fucked it up.

and here's why:

after Hillary's unifying speech on Tuesday, the group-hug-fest nomination on Wednesday, and then last night's absolutely amazing nomination speech, practically ALL of the fence-sitting Hillary supporters are now FULLY on board the Obama bus.

if he had picked Palin 2 weeks ago, given time for her bio to be propagated through the media and the water coolers across the nation, appeared with her at a couple press conferences .... a lot of still-bitter Hillary supporters may well have decided to make the switch.

but this is too late. now they're emotionally committed. the DNC nomination process was cathartic and unifying almost to a person.

McCain missed the boat.

all he's going to get now are a few previously-disaffected pro-life evangelicals to be more enthusiastic about voting for him.





[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:27 PM. Reason : ]

8/29/2008 1:24:51 PM

Kainen

i'm simply asking that when you "quote" someone, you actually acknowledge where you got it from...how hard is it to post a link? cause its obviously not hard for me to google your post and point out that it came from DailyKos, which we all know is a truly fair and balanced source of information

^somebody sounds awfully worried

8/29/2008 1:25:01 PM

sorry, admittedly im in rapid response mode. there's so much koolaid in this thread. i didnt know that was on kos though...the guy on 538 sounded like a righty. GUESS HE ISNT! LOL

8/29/2008 1:26:29 PM

Quote :

"if he had picked Palin 2 weeks ago, given time for her bio to be propagated through the media and the water coolers across the nation, allowed her a few press conference speeches.... a lot of Hillary supporters may very well have made their switch. but this is too late. they're already committed. the DNC nomination process was cathartic and unifying almost to a person."

On the contrary, I think the timing of this pick might have stolen some of the thunder from the Dem Convention. Instead of Obama's grinning mug on the cover of every online news source, now we see Palin's.

You make it sound like the election was effectively over after Hillary's speech.

8/29/2008 1:28:30 PM

Quote :

"there's so much koolaid in this thread."

There's a certain irony in this.

8/29/2008 1:30:01 PM

^^^^ im not worried. thats a sober analysis of the facts. the choice of Palin is all about getting hillary supporters.

if mccain had pulled this unlikely dark horse VP candidate out 2 weeks ago... I would have been a bit worried.

but he missed the target he was aiming for. this is all about getting hillary supporters. but he missed them. they're already on the bus, rollin down the road. and here he is struggling with his baggage at the greyhound station.





[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:30 PM. Reason : ^]

8/29/2008 1:30:02 PM

Quote :

"this is all about getting hillary supporters. but he missed them. they're already on the bus, rollin down the road."

joe_schmoe wants us to believe that nobody can change their minds about who they're voting for in the next 2+ MONTHS

NOPE TOO LATE, THEY SUPPORT OBAMA NOW, YOU MISSED THE BOAT lolol

Quote :

"You make it sound like the election was effectively over after Hillary's speech."

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:31 PM. Reason : .]

8/29/2008 1:30:41 PM

Quote :

"there's so much koolaid in this thread."

I think it's hilarious that an Obama supporter would even attempt to talk about kool-aid.

8/29/2008 1:31:48 PM

Focusing on Clinton may be missing the boat.

There are a ton of women in the country who hate, or at least dislike Hillary Clinton.

Those women, I posture, would still really like to see a woman in the White House. Those women were also probably not all that excited about McCain. However, he just gave them a reason to get excited.

It will pull a few Clinton supporters, I don't know that it will be that many, but that is just a bonus.

Its not all about swinging voters - Bush gets a lot of credit in 2004 for winning Ohio largely due to very strong GOTV. GOTV is also where I felt Obama was going to crush McCain this fall, even if Obama didn't pull many Republicans, or less than half of Independents. That may have just changed.

8/29/2008 1:32:06 PM

TWISTA, you obviously didnt pay attention to the DNC that just occured.

because im not talking about "nobody" or "anybody"

im talking about the fence sitting hillary supporters who were emotionally invested in hillary to a fault, and bitter about obama's perceived stealing of her perceived rightful place at the convention.

they were in a high state of anxiety, of cognitive dissonance, and the DNC was such a completely successfuly resolution to that... the VAST MAJORITY of the previous fence-sitters are now fully on board as DEMOCRATS.

and THEY WILL NOT SWITCH TO MCCAIN. no way, no how. not even with the pro-life, evangelical Ms. Palin.

8/29/2008 1:34:30 PM

Quote :

"I think it's hilarious that an Obama supporter would even attempt to talk about kool-aid."

i think its hilarious that a Palin supporter would say that

8/29/2008 1:34:35 PM

Why? Kool Aid tastes terrible. I can't stand the stuff

I do think this is effectively timed though....after that awesome speech yesterday this was SORELY needed I think from the GOP. Shift the narrative, and fast.

8/29/2008 1:34:35 PM

and if any women out there HATE Hillary Clinton... well, guess what? they wouldn't be voting for Obama anyhow.

so yeah, palin will appeal to the rightwing evangelical pro-life women.

and yeah, maybe McCain will now get some of them who might have stayed home otherwise.

i guess he could do worse, but Palin is hardly the trump card he was needing.

8/29/2008 1:37:49 PM

no wonder McCain waited to announce his choice last night. "we'll let obama have this time, congratulations obama"

today he's like HOW YOU LIKE THEM APPLES!

lets see if it works.

8/29/2008 1:38:13 PM

Quote :

"i think its hilarious that a Palin supporter would say that"

The point is that McCain (or Palin, now) doesn't have a majority of supporters that are blindly following him because he represents some nebulous form of change. In fact, most McCain supporters are just holding their nose this year. Very few republican voters I would classify as "drinking the kool-aid" this time around.

8/29/2008 1:39:30 PM

Quote :

"today he's like HOW YOU LIKE THEM APPLES!"

What are 'THEM APPLES'....Palin? That's the ace up the sleeve? I can't wait to see how this plays out. lol.

8/29/2008 1:40:02 PM

I'm all about the 2nd amendment, but I think its funny that they promote one of Palin's main attributes as being a lifelong NRA member - the GOP cracks me up

8/29/2008 1:40:05 PM

Quote :

" The point is that McCain (or Palin, now) doesn't have a majority of supporters that are blindly following him because he represents some nebulous form of change."

You're right, I have a feeling that this year is completely different from every other election and most of the people on the left and right aren't supporting their candidates for partisan reasons.

8/29/2008 1:40:42 PM

the newness will wear off in a week and people will see what a poor choice this is

8/29/2008 1:41:30 PM

Quote :

"the fence sitting hillary supporters who were emotionally invested in hillary to a fault, and bitter about obama's perceived stealing of her perceived rightful place at the convention. they were in a high state of anxiety, of cognitive dissonance, and the DNC was such a completely successfuly resolution to that... the VAST MAJORITY of the previous fence-sitters are now fully on board as DEMOCRATS."

schmoe...you're again assuming, incorrectly as you did in another thread, that Hillary's speech was some kind of knockout success...I've already shot down your assertion that nearly every political analyst thought she knocked it out of the park...but you're clinging

you really do seem worried about this pick...its funny to watch

^i dunno, the newness hasnt worn off Obama yet

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:42 PM. Reason : .]

8/29/2008 1:42:18 PM

Quote :

"On the contrary, I think the timing of this pick might have stolen some of the thunder from the Dem Convention. Instead of Obama's grinning mug on the cover of every online news source, now we see Palin's."

okay, i guess it may have that effect. but whoever he picked would have been announced today to try and get that effect.

the fact that he chose Palin is obviously with a primary interest to lure away disaffected Hillary supporters... i mean REALLY. Palin has very little else to go for, other than appealing to evangelical pro-lifers.

so, if he picked her to lure fence-sitting Hillary supporters (as seems obvious)... then I say he missed the Boat. these women, 95% of them I'd say... he's dead to them.






[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:47 PM. Reason : ]

8/29/2008 1:42:30 PM

Quote :

"The point is that McCain (or Palin, now) doesn't have a majority of supporters that are blindly following him because he represents some nebulous form of change. In fact, most McCain supporters are just holding their nose this year. Very few republican voters I would classify as "drinking the kool-aid" this time around."

fear mongering is the ultimate kool-aid, and i know your good ole boys drank that shit up last time around

8/29/2008 1:43:11 PM

november 4th? more like august 28th amirite, WE'RE NOT ACCEPTING ANY MORE VOTES

8/29/2008 1:43:34 PM

^^^^ TWISTA,

no no no... not hillary's speech ... jesus christ, im not stupid. and you aren't paying attention to me.

the WHOLE DNC. all of it. ESPECIALLY this core group: Michelle Obama + Hillary + Bill Clinton + the nomination process + Barack Obama's speech.

all of it. the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

the fence sitting Hillary supporters are fully on board now as DEMOCRATS. as a group, they are off McCains radar.

whereas 2 weeks ago, 1 week ago even, McCain might have had a reasonable shot at picking up a bunch of them while they were still distressed.




[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 1:48 PM. Reason : ]

8/29/2008 1:46:06 PM

This is awesome news about the VP pick. It sets up a similar dynamic that made the democratic primaries so successful in terms of large turn out. I think this could be great news for our nation.

I'm glad the democratic party primary made a pick like this something that the republicans would seriously consider.

8/29/2008 1:46:41 PM

except i don't think a lot of democrats will pick Palin...

8/29/2008 1:47:34 PM

They wont...but despite the rather desperate and pandering motivations for dong so, throwing out a woman for VP is a good move foward for the GOP. They can finally throw a candidate out there that isn't an old tight-ass, rich, white dude. Bravo.

8/29/2008 1:51:12 PM

"They can finally"? Why couldn't they before?

Quote :

"Those women, I posture, would still really like to see a woman in the White House. Those women were also probably not all that excited about McCain. However, he just gave them a reason to get excited."

If you think that women voters are only seeing gender and not paying attention to any other issues, you're incredibly naive. It's not "HEY, A WOMAN WE DON'T HATE! LET'S VOTE FOR HER!"

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:02 PM. Reason : ,]

8/29/2008 1:59:50 PM

Quote :

"that isn't an old tight-ass, rich, white dude."

be careful. Hooksaw will jump all over you for having an obsession with old, rich white guys

8/29/2008 2:00:21 PM

Quote :

"If you think that women voters are only seeing gender and not paying attention to any other issues, you're incredibly naive. "

If you think that women voters dont see gender and only pay attention to other issues, you're incredibly naive.

8/29/2008 2:02:19 PM

I didn't say it wasn't part of their decision

but it's fucking retarded to think they'll win Hillary supporters over with such an inexperienced choice

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:04 PM. Reason : women only liked Hillary because she was a woman, right?! ]

8/29/2008 2:03:21 PM

Once the Obama camp releases their plans for what part of their administration Hillary will be in, what happens to the Palin buzz?

8/29/2008 2:08:48 PM

Quote :

"old tight-ass, rich, white dude"

Biden?

8/29/2008 2:10:14 PM

At least Palin wasn't a "community organizer"--whatever the hell that is. Every time I hear that term it gives me the creeps--I picture some guy furiously handing out pamphlets for the Communist Workers Party.

And be honest: If some of you were hiring officials and somebody came in with "community organizer" on his or her résumé, you'd be, like, WTF?!

Sweet Jesus.

8/29/2008 2:13:46 PM

Biden is not rich...he's not poor either but not rich.

Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del.

Annual Earned income: $298,200.
Honoraria, all donated to charity: $1,025.
Major assets: Bank accounts, mutual funds and insurance policies, $59,000-$366,000.

8/29/2008 2:16:48 PM

Quote :

"Annual Earned income: $298,200."

he might not be rich in the big scheme of things, but I sure as hell know I'm not pulling in $300k a year

besides, he's still an old, tight-ass white dude

also McCain isn't rich, his wife is, right?

8/29/2008 2:19:50 PM

McCain is worth about 36.4 million

he's not just relying on his wife

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:22 PM. Reason : though I'm sure he enjoys the added bonus]

8/29/2008 2:22:31 PM

Quote :

"And be honest: If some of you were hiring officials and somebody came in with "community organizer" on his or her résumé, you'd be, like, WTF?!"

Let's talk about that. Because actually I work in HR as a Team Leader for a pretty big company and I read resumes and hire people all the fucking time. It's my profession so I'd have somewhat of a good say about this.

Just being honest here but I'd probably scan the resume and see that he has:

-JD Graduate of Harvard Law School (Juris Doctor degree, magna cum laude).
-President of the Harvard Law Review (the first ever African American).
-Civil rights attorney (turned down a prestigious judicial clerkship)
-Author of multiple best-selling books.
-Constitutional law professor.
- Illinois State Senator.
-Chairman of the Illinois State Senate Health and Human Services Committee.
-United States of America Senator (D-Ill)
-Member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Environment and Public Works Committee, and Veterans ’ Affairs Committee.

In addition to your reference of him taking a community organizer job (instead of a high paying corporate job with that education), would further infer integrity from that line of experience in his past, and put all these credentials together and hire the guy faster than you can see bugs mcgee. If I heard the way he ran his campaign, his ideas, intelligence, and speeches on the trail I'd probably let him take my job and just leave my office.

What's your point?

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:23 PM. Reason : - ]

8/29/2008 2:22:49 PM

he left "friend of Capitol building bomber" off his resume

8/29/2008 2:26:34 PM

ok man whatever. lol. they served on a board together and were both active members of the University of Illinois is all the fuck they did.

I forgot, I suppose when they pass in the university hallways, whenever ayers comes near Obama should have been Mr. Patriot and just hold an American flag picture in protest of his awful past and never talk or be around the guy. Jesus. He's just a fucking radical hippie and was pardoned.

8/29/2008 2:32:15 PM

treetwista, for someone that claims to be non-partisan, you sound like Ann Coulter or Rush Limbaugh in about 99% of your soap box posts

8/29/2008 2:35:42 PM

^^I dunno, I mean he bombed the fucking US Capitol and the Pentagon...kind of serious stuff...thats not exactly the type of person I would befriend

^maybe because 99% of soap box sounds like Al Franken and Keith Olbermann in their posts

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:37 PM. Reason : .]

8/29/2008 2:36:13 PM

Quote :

"but it's fucking retarded to think they'll win Hillary supporters over with such an inexperienced choice"

Not retarded. I quoted a Hillary supporter switching over on page 1.

8/29/2008 2:36:28 PM

^x5 LOL!

^x6 With qualifications of that sort in mind, Ralph Nader should've been president long ago. And people in corporate jobs can't have integrity?

[Edited on August 29, 2008 at 2:37 PM. Reason : .]

8/29/2008 2:36:46 PM

Quote :

"^maybe because 99% of soap box sounds like Al Franken and Keith Olbermann in their posts "

hah, that bullshit does not even follow.

8/29/2008 2:39:46 PM

does not follow what

8/29/2008 2:40:17 PM

Interesting pick

Shes a Washington outsider (McCain needed badly) and seems to be transparent up there in Alaska (even though she is being investigated for this Trooper deal, it sounds like she has been trully compliant w/ the investigation)

and most importantly doesn't seem to be a slave to the GOP

I actually want this lady in Washington (even though I dont agree with some of her social positions)

Im most worried that she will end up like Condi Rice. Condi always seemed to be a well intentioned and decent politician but got shut out of the Dubya/Cheney/rumsfeild mens club, which made her look really stupid (and sometimes took some bad media flack for shit that came down from them).

8/29/2008 2:45:07 PM