Quote :

"Kasich will be barred from being considered as the nominee based on current rules unless he racks up wins in 7 or more states - which ain't happenin. If the RNC changes the rules then he has a chance."

This is not true, even under the relevant rule from 2012.

You need to win 8 states to get the traditional floor nomination with seconding speeches and all that for the first round, but obviously Kasich isn't dealing with the first round. After that, you need to "demonstrate the support of the majority of delegates from eight states."

So a scenario for round 2: delegates from eight states breathe a sigh of relief that they are no longer bound to the lunatic their state voted for, and they instead go for Kasich. Not every delegate from a state has to, just a majority. Now he's just as viable as the others.

This is the mechanism that made it possible for people to hope that Paul Ryan would jump in, or some other person from outside the current offerings.

And of course at this point it bears repeating that none of this actually applies, because it refers to the rules from 2012. The rules for the 2016 convention have not yet been written.

4/22/2016 12:47:21 PM

Quote :

"And of course at this point it bears repeating that none of this actually applies, because it refers to the rules from 2012. The rules for the 2016 convention have not yet been written."

Which is pure insanity that things can operate like that

4/22/2016 1:01:19 PM

Explain.

4/22/2016 1:04:22 PM

That they can just make up the rules as we go. Seems to me like that should be done before all of the primaries and whatnot but then again our voices don't matter.

4/22/2016 2:30:48 PM

Quote :

"That they can just make up the rules as we go. Seems to me like that should be done before all of the primaries and whatnot but then again our voices don't matter."

You can't set rules for the convention until the people at the convention vote on it, first in committee form and then for all the delegates at the convention. If they set the rules pre-primaries than the influence of Donald Trump supporters or Ted Cruz supporters in making the rules back in 2015 would have been zero when the nomination of a presidential candidate and the party's official views are the only real reasons these conventions exist. (They could have a year ago for example made a rule that any individual that donated money in the past to a Democratic Party nominee presumptive - Hillary Clinton - is automatically ineligible to be nominated. Hey, as long as it's approved since the Republican Party is a private organization only responsible for its own internal governance, that's fine.)

The current rules carried over from 2012 - the 8 state requirement in Rule 40 that this guy http://frontloading.blogspot.com/ has repeatedly said is irrelevant until the next convention's Rules Committee approves it - were setup by Mitt Romney's lawyer to stop the nuisance of gadfly political opposition if Romney ran again in 2016.

[Edited on April 22, 2016 at 6:13 PM. Reason : /]

4/22/2016 6:01:46 PM

Sen. Cruz and Kasich officially joining forces. Not sure how I feel about this. I'm really going to have to take some time to process this whole thing and get back to everyone.

4/25/2016 6:12:52 AM

Not sure I would call it joining forces I think neither of them really likes the idea but they are running out of options so this divide and conquer strategy is their last grasp. Unfortunately, we live in a country full of morons so Trump is going to be the nominee or risk the party falling apart.

4/25/2016 10:00:42 AM

the party is already falling apart

4/25/2016 10:14:15 AM

Doesn't matter if they make a deal unless their voters agree to follow the candidates' wishes.

4/25/2016 10:20:56 AM

It's hard to imagine an election cycle more enjoyable than this one.

4/25/2016 11:20:55 AM

^ 1912 was pretty good.

4/25/2016 12:02:26 PM

What did you enjoy about it?

4/25/2016 1:02:01 PM

Polling shows 25% of their voters were leaning trump anyway so they are willing to risk even that because theres no other option.

4/25/2016 3:59:14 PM

Quote :

"Sen. Cruz and Kasich officially joining forces. Not sure how I feel about this. I'm really going to have to take some time to process this whole thing and get back to everyone. "

I don't see this working out. I guess we'll have to see how it works out, but it's giving Trump tons of fodder and letting him paint himself as the underdog.

4/25/2016 5:29:47 PM

It's definitely going to increase the chances no one gets to 1,237 before the convention. But other than that, not sure what it's going to accomplish. The convention is going to be a social media/cable news cluster.

4/25/2016 7:59:43 PM

RNC rules for open conventions haven't been updated since 1848. If theres no winner after the second ballot it goes into a sudden death shootout.

4/25/2016 8:57:04 PM

Quote :

"It's definitely going to increase the chances no one gets to 1,237 before the convention"

Wishful thinking.

4/25/2016 10:15:35 PM

Yeah, I'm not seeing how it's going to be super impactful. I don't think there's a lot of overlap between Cruz and Kasich supporters. Trump voters are still going to vote Trump, and I don't see a lot of Kasich people throwing their support behind Cruz and vice versa.

4/26/2016 3:44:52 AM

Re 1912, you had a very popular president (Teddy Roosevelt) that left his hand-picked successor (William Taft) in charge of the country, but expected him to govern like he wanted, which he did not. Roosevelt runs for president again in 1912, but the Republican Party machinery deny him the nomination and renominated Taft. This leads to the political party that had been dominant post-Civil War dividing in two. Woodrow Wilson was the Democrats' candidate, plus this election was the best the Socialist Party ever did, with Eugene Debs gaining 6% of the vote. This is the last time one of the Republican or Democratic Party candidates did not finish 1-2 as Taft only won Utah and Vermont. This is also the only election in U.S. history with 3 presidents on the ballot (a former one, the current one, and a future one).

4/26/2016 9:10:52 AM

Seems like Repbublicans are coalescing around Trump, averaged ~55% of the vote in primaries today.

At this pace, he should have the 1237 delegates typically needed to win the nomination.

Cruz is pretty much done, and Kasich is just not connecting with voters, which is understandable...

Looks like the general will be Hillary vs Trump... going to be interesting.

[Edited on April 27, 2016 at 2:08 AM. Reason : ]

4/27/2016 2:06:50 AM

So basically the worst possible outcome for America... yay

4/27/2016 8:42:48 AM

In my opinion it is about time for TSB to begin coalescing around Mr. Trump as well. I, for one, have always supported Mr. Trump and welcome our new Trump benevolent overlordship.

4/27/2016 8:45:45 AM

^^Worst possible option IMO is still Cruz. Granted that comment is like giving a sigh of relief that you got hit by a standard atomic bomb as opposed to a hydrogen bomb.

4/27/2016 9:11:13 AM

I hate to say this, but I'm afraid it's over already. USA is becoming Trump Empire.

4/27/2016 10:01:16 AM

If you thought Cruz couldn't get any worse, he's tapped Fiorina as his running mate.

4/27/2016 3:10:37 PM

Cruz is delusional. Just got swept in 5 states and decides to announce a running mate? This must be his last stand desperation move.

4/27/2016 3:15:04 PM

but now he can rally support from all the Fiorina supporters! There are dozens of them!

4/27/2016 4:03:21 PM

Unless something happens, it's Trump's nomination.

I wonder who will be his running mate? I don't think he's picking Christie.

4/27/2016 5:14:03 PM

Quote :

"The theory of merging the HP and Compaq computer businesses was literally that putting two losers together could make a winner."

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/725430730919170048

4/27/2016 5:36:44 PM

Quote :

"Much of the discussion – and laughs – focused on Boehner’s views on the current presidential candidates. Segueing into the topic, Kennedy asked Boehner to be frank given that the event was not being broadcasted, and the former Speaker responded in kind. When specifically asked his opinions on Ted Cruz, Boehner made a face, drawing laughter from the crowd. “Lucifer in the flesh,” the former speaker said. “I have Democrat friends and Republican friends. I get along with almost everyone, but I have never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life.”"

http://www.stanforddaily.com/2016/04/28/john-boehner-talks-election-time-in-office/

4/28/2016 10:21:13 AM

EDIT: Please Remove (already posted)

[Edited on April 28, 2016 at 11:07 AM. Reason : .]

4/28/2016 10:55:27 AM

Weird I feel like I just read that somewhere...

In other news:

Quote :

"Ted Cruz cannot possibly beat Hillary Clinton."

-Ted Cruz's running mate

4/28/2016 10:57:41 AM

^^^
brutal. i like this awakened version of John Boehner

4/28/2016 11:28:35 AM

http://gawker.com/watch-ted-cruz-s-daughter-literally-run-from-her-father-1773799772

Quote :

"Those poor kids. Having a blobfish as a father must be troubling, especially having to moisten his flesh every evening to ensure he stays hydrated."

4/29/2016 12:24:39 PM

It is becoming obvious in polling trends that Cruz's strategy has backfired completely. Trump is going to be the nominee.

5/2/2016 9:34:10 AM

Good read.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html

5/2/2016 12:20:01 PM

Very good.

And this, if anyone wants to really know why Trump is so popular.

Quote :

"Much of the newly energized left has come to see the white working class not as allies but primarily as bigots, misogynists, racists, and homophobes, thereby condemning those often at the near-bottom rung of the economy to the bottom rung of the culture as well. A struggling white man in the heartland is now told to “check his privilege” by students at Ivy League colleges. Even if you agree that the privilege exists, it’s hard not to empathize with the object of this disdain. These working-class communities, already alienated, hear — how can they not? — the glib and easy dismissals of “white straight men” as the ultimate source of all our woes. They smell the condescension and the broad generalizations about them — all of which would be repellent if directed at racial minorities — and see themselves, in Hoffer’s words, “disinherited and injured by an unjust order of things.”"

5/2/2016 1:15:02 PM

Poor, uneducated people want a direction to cast their frustration and anger at their own lives/situations. Trump gives them many choices. It's not rocket science.

^^ pretty good read

[Edited on May 2, 2016 at 3:57 PM. Reason : X]

5/2/2016 3:52:42 PM

5/2/2016 4:07:31 PM

Here, lemme correct that for you.

Quote :

"White, poor, uneducated people want a direction to cast their frustration and anger at their own lives/situations."

All the other poor uneducated people are just victims to you.

5/2/2016 6:16:42 PM

These people are victims too. Of circumstance, of the decline of manufacturing, etc.

5/2/2016 6:58:05 PM

Yes but your previous comment just oozes disdain.

5/2/2016 7:22:33 PM

It's more at Trump supporter's than poor rural Americans as a whole to be fair.

There is a lot of truth to the fact that their plight gets largely overlooked by the left and while I don't think they are treated as if they are privileged by and large I get some of their anger. But it's not the fault of the Hispanics, Muslims or whatever other boogey man Trump wants to roll out.

5/2/2016 8:13:28 PM

The Working Families Party of New York is a party that was put in place and largely funded by labor unions that wanted a check on the Democrats becoming too centrist/taking organized labor for granted. They did this via the New York practice of electoral fusion where a party can co-nominate another party's candidate but the votes are counted on their line. So it serves as a check on the major parties from each's wing.

The WFP came out as enthusiastic supporters of Bernie Sanders' bid to win the Democratic Party primary there. Major unions the past couple weeks since the New York primary have stated they have withdrawn their funding of the party (it was quiet for some time because the unions supported Andrew Cuomo for governor in 2014 while WFP activists wanted to nominate a progressive candidate, but the primary seems to have brought this out in the open), saying they've not supported items in New York they state that create jobs and have sacrificed that for progressive causes that have nothing to deal with jobs or helping the economic circumstances of working families.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lovett-big-n-y-unions-stop-funding-working-families-party-article-1.2604723

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/city-hall/2016/04/8597516/working-families-party-loses-another-constituent-union

It's a point in favor of what's being said. I'm not a union guy but if you're a diehard union man or woman that goes out and does your job for a paycheck for your family, it's honest work and that's commendable. Yet they have been sacrificed for progressive policies. (Organized labor has done horrible under the Obama Administration by organized labor leaders' own statements.) There's two types of "left" that in my opinion don't coexist with each other at all as far as what they want and the policies they pursue: the Labor Left and the Green Left. That excerpt of the article is describing the point of view the Green Left has toward the Labor Left and the Non-unionized Labor Left and Right.

[Edited on May 2, 2016 at 11:20 PM. Reason : /]

5/2/2016 11:02:38 PM

Cruz dropping out.

Trump is the nominee. Sad that the GOP has come to this

5/3/2016 8:35:18 PM

Kasich out west tho...

5/3/2016 8:45:28 PM

Can't say too many people predicted this from the start. What a crazy election, the general should be very interesting.

5/3/2016 8:46:30 PM

No freaking way he endorses Trump at this point right? Given Cruz's history, and the glee with which Trump ridiculed and insulted Cruz and his family.

5/3/2016 8:47:26 PM

^It's politics. You never know. Clinton vs Obama got pretty heated and then she ended up working for him.

5/3/2016 8:54:57 PM

There's pretty heated and there's accusing someone's father of killing JFK and calling someone's wife ugly

5/3/2016 8:57:32 PM