2/7/2014 1:34:14 PM

Quote :

"So i keep hearing next week come up a lot today. http://wxbrad.com/potential-winter-storm-next-week/ Thoughts??"

short version: something between #2 and #3...with a 30-40% confidence

http://images.bimedia.net/images/Brad+Explainer+Map2.png
http://images.bimedia.net/images/Brad+Explainer+Map3.png

also, just in case









[Edited on February 7, 2014 at 2:06 PM. Reason : pictures are too big, so just click the links]

2/7/2014 2:02:47 PM

Midweek this coming week could be very interesting.

2/8/2014 6:16:48 AM

The latest NAM is a NC destroyer.pretty much the entire state gets nailed.

But we know where this is going. Snow in VA and some cold rain here...

2/8/2014 10:04:25 AM

You mean 2 feet of snow in Richmond, and sunny and 70 here in Raleigh?

Yup, know it all too well.

2/8/2014 10:20:18 AM

I really hope not. Me, my wife and the baby are scheduled to fly out to Japan via SFO on Wednesday morning @ 7 am.

2/8/2014 10:31:42 AM

Wednesday is my first day of work in Virginia... fortunately they'll have me in a hotel right near work the first few days before I can move into the new place.

I almost hope it doesn't snow too much ;_;

2/8/2014 1:35:52 PM

Fuck you Brunswick County

2/8/2014 3:22:16 PM

^LOL

2/8/2014 3:28:06 PM

2/8/2014 5:35:29 PM

I am prepared except for having working heat.

2/8/2014 6:00:16 PM

Should i buy bread and milk now?

2/8/2014 6:30:41 PM

wxbrad still has it as a level 3 (social media) buy bread is level 10

2/8/2014 6:53:47 PM

Quote :

"Should i buy bread and milk now?"

Yes, milk sandwiches are always in style

2/8/2014 7:01:40 PM

Bring on the snow. I'll gladly take a snow day from work

2/8/2014 7:44:38 PM

^^ I'm partial to milk soup with toast.

2/8/2014 7:51:56 PM

WRT the previous storm...Were the QPF totals a bust as compared to the model projections or were they pretty spot on. Only got 1.5" at my house...and it seemed less that the close to .75" of liquid precip modeled before the storm.

[Edited on February 8, 2014 at 9:17 PM. Reason : wrt]

2/8/2014 9:12:35 PM

^The models were pretty concentrated on ~.25 of liquid for the RDU area IIRC. Every now and then the track would shift and show .5 for RDU and that was trending the later the storm got here. It was always going to be cold enough with that storm. The question was the track and if the atmosphere was going to be moist enough.

I believe the question with this storm is not the track or the moist atmosphere but if the atmosphere at all levels is going to be cold enough for just snow or if it will be rain/mixture.

[Edited on February 8, 2014 at 9:44 PM. Reason : sdf]

2/8/2014 9:43:28 PM

oy model madness

2/8/2014 11:27:56 PM

I tried reading the AmericanWx thread and all I saw was a bunch of clowns complaining about North Georgia... so I have no clue.

2/9/2014 6:26:24 AM

^yeah, not a ton of NC discussion going on at the moment. Alot of those mets are placed out of places like Atlanta, so they really hone their discussion in on that. Especially when its looking like a huge ice storm for them. Still holding on a decent bit of snow for the NC areas I believe. Highly volatile system(as they always are) that will more than likely change multiple times over the next 24-48 hours.

2/9/2014 6:28:29 AM

Am I wrong in saying that it looks like Tues is where it would be cold enough to snow but that first batch of precip is now going to be weak and the big precip will be Weds and be a Raleigh special of cold rain?

2/9/2014 7:08:36 AM

http://www.wral.com/A-mild-Sunday-with-possible-snow-on-the-way/13372678/

2/9/2014 8:27:37 AM

^^Yeah. It initially looked like the first batch of precip was going to be the one that thumps us, but now it looks like the second batch is going to be the worst. More ice with the second batch I believe.

2/9/2014 11:11:46 AM

So can I go to the game Tuesday night or not? It's about a 10 minute drive, and I don't mind rain or snow as long as it's not all iced over

2/9/2014 11:36:49 AM

Quote :

"Should i buy bread and milk now?"

You should always be looking to buy milk.

2/9/2014 12:17:30 PM

So I-85 corridor event?

Little if anything for RDU?

2/9/2014 1:30:37 PM

From what i'm reading...the big ticket item has moved to Wednesday.

2/9/2014 1:35:21 PM

This seemed like a bigger deal a couple of days ago, sounds like it's trending more towards rain/sleet for 2-3 days. Yuck. S[no]w.

2/9/2014 1:40:43 PM

Still very much the possibility of snow and sleet on top of it...

Keep watching

2/9/2014 1:50:56 PM

Best I'm reading now is 1-3" for Raleigh, but sounds like Charlotte might get hammered.

2/9/2014 1:55:04 PM

I'm in Charlotte and have to work Wednesday night no matter the weather. Yay

2/9/2014 2:42:45 PM

It'll be a big deal here if it gives us 3" of snow, a couple inches of sleet and freezing rain. Could be very nasty indeed.

2/9/2014 2:44:32 PM

Raleigh NWS is going with a chance of rain for Weds. No surprise.

Charlotte to Greensboro should get it good, though.

2/9/2014 3:29:20 PM

It just started snowing pretty good here in Baltimore.

2/9/2014 4:16:21 PM

As of 3:20PM: Raleigh NWS still says a lot of uncertainty exists and it is too early to call. They expect it to be significant, but type of precip and amounts is beyond the forecasting right now.

They said a winter storm watch could be issued within 24 hours.

2/9/2014 4:28:00 PM

yeah, same a little while ago in Alexandria

2/9/2014 4:28:10 PM

^^ they updated the day by day things and discussion right after I posted that. My bad..

I'll check again at the 0z's and see if its any clearer I guess. Curious about this storm.

[Edited on February 9, 2014 at 4:50 PM. Reason : x]

2/9/2014 4:50:24 PM

They did a pretty bad job of predicting the times last time. So anything they say could +8 , -8 hours.

2/9/2014 5:09:31 PM

so whats the latest, any message boards to read?

2/9/2014 8:39:41 PM

Imma need some links. Where do you people see this stuff.

2/9/2014 8:52:07 PM

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42794-the-big-one-forecast-discussion/page-3

2/9/2014 8:58:03 PM

lol American WX is down. One of the mods was saying one of the threads was getting too big for their sql server.

2/9/2014 9:43:49 PM

Quote :

"Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow "

2/9/2014 9:55:48 PM

^^lol. There are 550 people reading that ONE TOPIC.

Also, they have no clue whats gonna happen. All they do is look at a computer model and give conjecture on why it is saying what it is saying. They then give a prediction on whats gonna happen if that model comes to fruition. The problem is, between two days ago and when the event actually arrives, there will have been so many models that any one of them could have been "right" because they're all gonna predict different shit. Hell, so far, I've seen raleigh predicted as anywhere from rain to a foot of snow. NO KIDDING!?

2/9/2014 10:14:43 PM

NAM...cold rain.

2/9/2014 10:22:31 PM

looks like cold rain for us

2/9/2014 10:24:00 PM

The town of Cary has already brined all of their roads.

& if ^ ,^^ you think it's just gonna be cold rain for two days you are nuts

2/10/2014 3:07:46 AM

We're closing in on it and nobody seems to know what its going to do yet, so predicting anything is dumb. Way too many variables that can change on a moments notice. The only thing that seems somewhat certain ATM is that if the storm tracks the way everyone thinks it will, the mountains are going to get crushed with a foot+ of snow. Anything east of that and the foothills is fair game to snow, sleet, freezing rain etc. That thinking will probably change 3-4 times before Tuesday gets here as well.

2/10/2014 4:06:54 AM

hopefully it'll start Tuesday night B-)

2/10/2014 4:43:41 AM