haha. i thought I had already mentioned Yang's polling momentum (in addition to his fundraising and social media momentum) recently, didn't think I needed to elaborate on Yang's numbers again in that comparison summary

Yang is still in the Booker, Klobuchar and Castro tier for sure. The only difference is those 3 have been stuck in the 1-3% range their entire campaign. Yang has gone from 0-1% in March/April to 1-2% in May/June to 2-3% in July/August. Steady growth.

[Edited on August 20, 2019 at 4:02 PM. Reason : and a 4% today in Colorado. compared to 5% for Buttigieg. Yang's gonna keep rising, bet on it]

8/20/2019 4:00:02 PM

nah

8/20/2019 4:17:15 PM

shrug. I'll take a break from talking about Yang for a while

generally speaking though, given the 10 folks currently set to make the next debates, rank them in order YOU think they're most likely to be able to make a 5%+ gain in their national polling average

Warren
Yang
Buttigieg
Harris
Sanders
Castro
Booker
Biden
Klobuchar
Beto


[Edited on August 20, 2019 at 4:48 PM. Reason : .]

8/20/2019 4:47:16 PM

8/20/2019 5:36:02 PM

Quote :

"Alan Lichtman, an American University professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of the past nine presidential elections and author of The Case For Impeachment," told HILL.TV this week that based on his predictive system Donald Trump might be on course to win in 2020 unless the economy falters or he is impeached. He also had some suggestions for Democrats about who to nominate to defeat Trump, saying "the conventional wisdom is all wrong." "The conventional wisdom you hear from Nancy Pelosi and others is we need to go down the center line and nominate an establishment, experienced, proven candidate, and they’ve done that many times," he said, listing: "Mike Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton." "And what do they all have in common? They all lost," he said. "It’s the off-the-wall candidates -- the Carters, the [Bill] Clintons, the Obamas -- who no one expected who have won." "

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/07/historian_allan_lichtman_democrats_might_do_better_with_an_off_the_wall_2020_candidate_rather_than_safe_pick.html


establishment picks will 100% lose to Trump. and Trump knows it too

8/20/2019 5:59:14 PM

^^ that's dumb...number 1 because he said "every" instead of "both" to imply a larger number than it has been, number 2 bc his poll numbers have only gone down since the last debate. They're not "back up"

[Edited on August 20, 2019 at 6:23 PM. Reason : he also hasn't dropped "significantly" since debate two. down 3 points an thats taken 3 weeks]

8/20/2019 6:20:58 PM

Biden would absolutely do better than Yang, almost anyone would

[Edited on August 20, 2019 at 6:29 PM. Reason : Yang has nothing to offer to both progressives and establishment dems ]

8/20/2019 6:20:58 PM

Yang is probably overperforming in the polls right now more than anyone, but that doesn't mean too much at this point other than being a little interesting.

I worry recently Yang is trying to be too folksy though, in the sense of just spouting off about solutions to problems without understanding the problems-- like saying shipping crate homes as a solution to high housing costs.

He recently mentioned out block chain as a solution to digital voting. This type of thing appeals to a lot of Trumpian people, but I think it undermines his "MATH" mantra.

Social media wise, Bernie and Warren have been crushing it. I see the most compelling posts from them of any candidate. Harris is struggling at this point, I feel fairly confident in saying she won't be the nominee.

Between Bernie and Warren, I think Warren would end up doing better against Trump despite the fact Bernie polls better against Trump at this point.

8/20/2019 10:09:16 PM

somebody probably already pointed this out, and i think yang is a nice guy, but he and his supporters remind me of the ron paul 2008 phenomenon. i wish them well but i dont think hes gonna win and i dont want him to win.

8/21/2019 7:28:02 AM

Inslee dropped out

8/22/2019 12:06:29 AM

Warren's mirror campaign was never meant to make it to the general. There just isn't a way to divide the progressive/dem vote amongst two candidates and still come out ahead of the leading corporate candidate. The people behind her campaign have to know they are handing the nomination to Biden. Most of Bernie's support is outside of the democratic party. They will show up for him in the general but many won't show up for a corporate dem at all. We can be pretty sure Bernie won't run as an independent but he would have a good chance at defeating Trump/Biden. Elections are all about contrast. His chances there would be higher than his chances of winning this nomination because of the contrast.

The Warren supporters are people who like progressive policies but are "blue no matter who" at the end of the day. Even though they'd prefer president Warren, they'll happily vote for Biden after the primary. Thats why I'm angry with them. They are spoiling the chance at getting a progressive candidate at all by picking the shiny new candidate over the one who has always been there.

I need to relax because its only August. If this was the situation in January, then I would expect her to drop out but a lot can change between now and then so all of the candidates should be able to let it play out. Maybe she thinks she will take the lead over Biden eventually, or maybe she is just using the platform to promote these plans that she will continue to support in the senate.

I also find it weird that people are using popular vote polls to talk about who would do well against trump

[Edited on August 22, 2019 at 7:01 AM. Reason : actually its not weird, they know what they are doing and don't like what the maps tell them]

8/22/2019 6:54:58 AM

https://www.people-press.org/2019/08/16/most-democrats-are-excited-by-several-2020-candidates-not-just-their-top-choice/4-29/

Warren supporters' second pick is Harris (Biden is 4th pick)

8/22/2019 7:59:48 AM

Kind of odd to think that Warren, who is in all but a tie with Sanders for second right now, should drop out.

Trump supporters say the weirdest things.

8/22/2019 8:09:34 AM

They might have a point though. If you can't win, generally you should drop out. Bernie's support is at a floor right now. I just doubt there is room for her (or anyone besides Biden) to win a primary where she splits the progressive wing. Do you honestly see a situation where Bernie gets 15+% and Warren still has enough to beat Biden?

I haven't reached that conclusion yet i'm just speculating because in the last round of debates, Harris was destroyed and progressive values dominated but Biden kept his lead. Warren is essentially 'in Bernie's way'. There are a group of voters who want a woman president. I don't doubt that in a round of debates without Warren, Bernie would be able to pry many of those Harris voters with his progressive policies. For my CALS folks, Warren is just a competitive inhibitor to Bernie's growth.

8/22/2019 12:22:54 PM

Maybe Bernie should drop out. Without supporting ending the filibuster, he has no way to get his policies through anyway

Also

Quote :

"@politics_polls: ARIZONA Trump 44% (+10) Sanders 34% . Trump 45% (+9) Harris 36% . Trump 43% (+5) Buttigieg 38% . Trump 44% (+1) Warren 43% @OHPredictive"

8/22/2019 12:37:41 PM

if we are talking about combining supporter bases it would make more sense for sanders to drop out than for warren to drop out. if warren drops out harris is the second pick for the majority of her supporters, but if sanders drops out warren is their top second pick and sanders also has more people undecided on a second pick so there is an opportunity to pick up even more of his support.

[Edited on August 22, 2019 at 12:41 PM. Reason : plurality not majority, but same point]

8/22/2019 12:40:42 PM

I am torn. I want someone that can beat Trump, but I want to be enthusiastic this go round. I voted for Clinton in 2016

Part of me says support a candidate that can pick off disgruntled 2016 Trump voters, and is more electable/acceptable to a wider majority of Americans.

Another part of me hates the militant(read absurdly leftist) wing of the democrat party. I guess as long as it is not a race to the left, they can win? Democrats have a way of shooting themselves in the foot and letting republicans define them.

The last part of me says Trump gonna Trump, democrats won popular vote in last 6 of last 7 elections, fuck the uber left...but damn if the uber left doesn’t want as much chaos as Trump, and it excites the hell out of me. Especially after this dreadful POTUS.

8/22/2019 11:18:39 PM

I assume you were born somewhere between 8/23/1998 and 11/8/1998, since otherwise you couldn't be 20 years old like your profile claims, and also have voted for Hillary (let alone anyone) in 2016.

8/22/2019 11:32:13 PM

Maybe I am on of the millions who voted illegally.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/802972944532209664?s=21

Or maybe a simple keystroke error. You be the judge.

8/22/2019 11:41:16 PM

Sorry for the mistake, we really do get lots of new users here who aren't aliases/ESL students. My bad.

8/22/2019 11:43:13 PM

I’m not brown, if that is what you are referring to.

Perhaps we can get back on subject?

I think in 2020, it is Biden/Harris, Harris/Buttigieg, or Warren/Buttigieg, for the democrat ticket.

8/22/2019 11:59:31 PM

Another soapbox alias. Fun.

8/23/2019 8:17:51 AM

Scaramucci at Biden Hamptons event tonight

#Warren

8/24/2019 10:20:59 PM

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1166032564223717377?s=21

One data point, yada, yada... but !!!!!

8/26/2019 1:05:19 PM

Sanders and Warren are basically splitting Biden's losses.

(And yet another poll showing Sanders with the most support from POC)

8/26/2019 2:08:37 PM

Yang is surging.

8/26/2019 8:38:44 PM

The real energy is behind Williamson

8/26/2019 9:13:54 PM

Need to keep gabbard in the debates for another round or two.

8/26/2019 10:22:14 PM

^but...why? Looks or because she checks a lot of boxes?

8/26/2019 10:25:30 PM

She could hold her own against trump better than 2/3 of the people left standing.

8/26/2019 10:36:48 PM

Jesus, now I'm just worried about the guy
https://twitter.com/idaveprice/status/1166076090294657025?s=19

8/26/2019 11:05:01 PM

^^I prefer the nominee to be a woman simply because thats the perfect foil against Trump.

8/26/2019 11:10:05 PM

Gabbard should go away

8/27/2019 8:00:44 AM

https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/27/biden-trails-in-donors-from-obama-trump-swing-counties/

Quote :

"In the 206 counties that voted for Barack Obama twice before backing Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden has fewer donors than three primary opponents, the Daily Beast reports. According to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data, 12,040 donors from those Obama-Trump counties made 19,885 donations to Biden during the first six months of 2019. By contrast, Elizabeth Warren had 13,674 donors make 26,298 donations from those counties and Pete Buttigieg had 14,294 donors make 23,320 donations from those counties. All three of them trail Bernie Sanders when it comes to donors from Obama-Trump counties. Sanders had 33,185 donors make 81,841 donations in those areas, “a haul that his team was eager to tout.”"

and
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_082619/

Quote :

"Biden lost support over the past two months among Democrats who call themselves moderate or conservative (from 40% to 22%) with the shift among these voters accruing to both Sanders (from 10% to 20%) and Warren (from 6% to 16%). "

none of this should be surprising at all, but isn't this supposed to the whole point of biden?

8/27/2019 2:47:11 PM

nate silver: electability is a flat circle

8/27/2019 3:08:38 PM

Is that Andrew Yang I see polling at 5% in early states?

8/27/2019 3:49:16 PM

hopefully he can match williamson's strong polling in other states

8/27/2019 4:05:51 PM

I hope so too! Seems likely imho

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-two-debates-warren-is-getting-more-popular/



[Edited on August 27, 2019 at 9:14 PM. Reason : .]

8/27/2019 9:14:13 PM

Seems like Warren is the favorite to win, with Yang being the potential sleeper.

I did see Yang have as part of his climate policy to start using nuclear fusion within 8 years, which is questionable at best, and on the same level as nuking hurricanes at worst...

8/27/2019 10:15:14 PM

Seems like it's wayyyyy too early to make predictions.

[Edited on August 27, 2019 at 11:02 PM. Reason : Cool to equate Yang and Trump tho ]

8/27/2019 11:01:49 PM

It looks like we're headed for a brokered convention which is exactly what they wanted when they wrote the rules the way they wrote them with 10 person debates. I'd bet most Warren supporters have no idea what that means or when the rules were created. Warren is an insurance policy (or compromise) for Wall Street and that is why the media is so down on Bernie.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-19/president-elizabeth-warren-would-be-great-for-wall-street-banks

I don't know the demographics, but it would make sense if the wealthy, educated liberals are the ones backing Warren. Looking at who wall street likes and going the opposite direction should not be so difficult for folks who aren't heavily invested. I'm speculating about people who will gain a lot from the current system but feel bad about how unfair it is.

Will be an easy general election for Trump if he gets to frame it as him vs big money/wall street/corporate america/swamp. especially if his main weakness becomes the wall street slowdown.


[Edited on August 28, 2019 at 10:12 AM. Reason : divide the vote as much as possible so you can pick the nominee]

8/28/2019 10:10:12 AM

> reads that we're headed for a brokered convention
> double checks calendar that it's still august 2019

8/28/2019 10:19:23 AM

Imagine thinking so little of the American people that you would think they would see Donald Trump as less of a Wall Street backer than Liz Warren.

Like how much antipathy to the ordinary voter must it take to say that and mean it??

[Edited on August 28, 2019 at 10:30 AM. Reason : I don’t think Earl is trolling tbh. He’s just an ignorant sideshow.]

8/28/2019 10:29:46 AM

Seems like a lot of people here are on team Warren. Honestly can't figure out how you get to her from Sanders in 2016.

(obv don't agree with horosho)

[Edited on August 28, 2019 at 10:43 AM. Reason : .]

8/28/2019 10:43:07 AM

who's team warren?

8/28/2019 10:46:33 AM

fucking lol, the angry dems made monmouth apologize for the poll that showed sanders doing well

8/28/2019 10:54:54 AM

^^
rwoody, moron, NYM

8/28/2019 11:03:39 AM

for anybody confused about the date in that screenshot, it's actually a statement from today

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1166720853477924870

[Edited on August 28, 2019 at 11:06 AM. Reason : and I mean, Emerson's last poll had Sanders at 24%. waiting for claims that they'll get DNCed too???]

8/28/2019 11:04:30 AM

The establishment will bury anybody who has his/her own brain and doesn't tow the establishment line. Sanders and other 'Independents' will, short of a miracle, be DOA.

Forget about having multiple viable parties as in Europe, the US doesn't even have two proper functioning parties. In the end it is almost always the establishment that wins, with very few exceptions.

Democracy fuck yeah!

I do hope Bernie wins; the world needs him.

8/28/2019 12:50:07 PM

Quote :

"who's team warren?"

Me. Specifically a Warren/Buttigieg ticket.

Quote :

"Honestly can't figure out how you get to her from Sanders in 2016."

I would have voted for her in 2016 if she ran. Since she didn't, Bernie was the closest thing I could get.

Quote :

"Warren is an insurance policy (or compromise) for Wall Street and that is why the media is so down on Bernie."

Just because some opinions out there say her policies would be good for banks, it's not because she's going to let them do what they want. It's because a strong middle class leads to more savings and investments. As I understand the linked article, she'll be good for banks who are following the rules. Warren has taken on the banking industry more than any other individual American politician in recent history, and will not stand for banks taking advantage of people.

[Edited on August 28, 2019 at 4:07 PM. Reason : -]

8/28/2019 4:01:35 PM