i'm hearing on CNBC more than ever a chance for a big and sudden drop of the stock market of 10% or more,
that is what most analysts are saying, yes all the correction talk hasnt happened yet but no matter how long it takes i think it will eventually happen

8/19/2009 11:46:12 PM

Great analysis!

[Edited on August 19, 2009 at 11:54 PM. Reason : Do you have a newsletter? I'd like to subscribe!]

8/19/2009 11:54:27 PM

Wow, I sold some options for Jan '10 a month or so ago and someone decided to exercise it already, insta-profit, thank you.

8/20/2009 9:21:50 AM

^^ haha couldn't have said it better myself.

8/20/2009 9:40:57 AM

Pullbacks are when you buy. Pulling out of a super bull runs bc it may go down 10 pct is silly.

A lot of people who "take profits" don't make profits.


Loose monetary policy why would you wanna go short when you're up against currency debasement?

8/20/2009 10:12:44 AM

As if you needed any more information about how GS is running...well, everything...this is about par for the course

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-sachs-baidu-untold-story

8/20/2009 10:18:50 AM

C up a lot again.

Looks like GS doubled their stake in citi last friday.

http://www.mffais.com/c

news schmews, if they're buying more C, i'm not gonna sell just yet.

8/20/2009 11:17:22 AM

Quote :

"Great analysis!"

traditional analysis has been wrong for months, now its all a gauge of overall investor sentiment, and i dont need a phd to do that

8/20/2009 11:30:14 AM

who needs a phd when you have a cnbc

8/20/2009 11:32:19 AM

sold the rest of my AIG @31.86. I'll take that 57% gain over ~6mo.

8/20/2009 2:21:27 PM

AIG is only a few hundred billion in the negative on their balance sheet. They are already a worthless zombie company and after they take the rest of their writedowns in the financial meltdown next year they'll probably be about 15-25 years away from becoming a solvent business.

What is it that attracts shareholders to AIG? Is it their -$700 earnings per share last quarter?

8/20/2009 9:05:05 PM

At last quarters profit, and if every cent of profit goes to pay back the govt, it will take them 25 years to pay it all back.

It really is mind blowing how junky stocks are in the stratosphere.

8/20/2009 9:16:53 PM

i bought it at roughly $1/share early this year. I figured it couldn't really get much lower, so i scooped it up hoping it would go to $5 or so.

8/20/2009 9:47:49 PM

^ how? their 52 week low never got that low.

Also, if that were true, you'd have made a lot more than 57% profit.

what am i missing?

8/20/2009 10:03:45 PM

You're missing the 1:20 reverse split.

8/20/2009 10:17:34 PM

no nuts no glory; my biography ya damn right a true story

- Young Jeezy

8/21/2009 11:21:20 AM

Quote :

"After buying some SIRI at 0.36 in May I sold it today at 0.575 for a return of around 56%."

Naturally it's up to $0.76 three days later.

8/21/2009 12:22:45 PM

AIG was down to $1 before the 1:20 split a few months ago so I don't doubt his story.

However this "$1 is as low as it can go" is nonsense. The stock will be worth $0 or damn near close to it eventually. It's all about lucky timing with greater fools when you trade these worthless stocks.

8/23/2009 12:56:48 PM

oh, i agree that AIG isn't a great stock for the long run. But I bought it so cheap when I was willing to risk some $$ for a company that just got a $150b gift, knowing they'd be around long enough to post some "good" news to the public. Turns out that worked for me.

8/23/2009 11:49:53 PM

stock market will open green, mark my words

8/24/2009 9:22:50 AM

Why...that's profound of you. It's like, you can see the futures.

8/24/2009 9:25:35 AM

lol

8/24/2009 11:05:45 AM

^^haha, i hope you know i was joking, some other people here take thinkg a little to seriously

8/24/2009 12:03:45 PM

got some speculative positions from their stay on nasdaq's up on unusual volume list

long of SYUT @16.25 and CISG @ 19.1

8/25/2009 10:20:02 AM

this helps me sleep better

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-makes-an-early-withdrawal-2009-08-25


hopefully by 2011 we see a similar direction forming in public sector spend

8/25/2009 3:32:21 PM

Made another $400 or so today with an SSO sale.

8/25/2009 6:09:05 PM

me too. i sold all my SSO yesterday around 32.70 that I had been accumulating since mid July. also got out of QLD last week after a nice run on that too. we may move a tad bit higher this week but we are probably topping out for the near term. i wouldn't start throwing in shorts yet but i think we'll be relatively flat as the market finally takes a breather. might go a bit short next week if it looks like it's rolling over.

oh, and FINALLY my CVX and COP positions are starting to move

8/25/2009 11:40:00 PM

agreed, good time to unload SSO, TYH, and other similar names

8/26/2009 2:24:40 AM

Just gonna say by the inch up in futures, im guessing we have another better than expected claims number.

8/27/2009 8:28:41 AM

CISG stopped out ~ 18.2

didn't work out, oh well

8/27/2009 10:20:16 AM

C over $5 now. do i sell now, or keep riding the greater fool wave?

currently have an unrealized gain of 62%

but i'm jealous of AIGs gains

8/27/2009 12:46:57 PM

You can thank me for that. I sold calls on half of my C at $4 for next to nothing a few weeks back.

8/27/2009 12:54:45 PM

thxu!

8/27/2009 1:25:29 PM

Quote :

"FailBoat - 6/2/09 - You're mildly retarded though if you think housing has hit bottom."

Quote :

"FailBoat - 6/3/09 - I suppose if I was the dick everyone claims I am, I would have just posted URE SPG or TOL and let him go lose money like every other misinformed fool out there"

looks like I was only a month early with my timing. too bad I didn't do the inverse of FailBoat's "advice" and already be up 15-25% on a long term play

8/27/2009 1:39:39 PM

Please buy it now. I highly encourage you to!

8/27/2009 2:39:07 PM

anybody else get on AIG today?

8/27/2009 3:11:57 PM

Made $700 on SPY options. I wish I could have stayed at my desk and kept an eye on it cause I could have made ~$1000 more. Damn work.

8/27/2009 4:16:45 PM

zep, where have you been since you made 65k at the turn?

8/27/2009 4:25:54 PM

Laying low. Despite how unstoppable it seems, this rally has no fundamental reason to be happening. There is some blatant manipulation going on out there that several bloggers have posted about. Check zero hedge and denninger's (sic?) sites.

I lost a little at a few times where I thought we'd get a correction and since then have just been waiting it out and playing SPY options. All of them being calls since there is only one direction this market goes but this insanity can't last. The housing market is not close to a bottom. Just wait till the option ARM loans reset. The banks are fucked. If you have to give them 2 trillion (and have, what, another 11 trillion in loans and guarantees available? I've lost count) and change the accounting rules to make it look good, you know something is fucked. There are a lot of banksters that need to go to jail and instead of doing that they're raping us. That pisses me the fuck off.

September is typically the worst month of the year for stock but this is an atypical year so I don't give that trend too much credit this year. I am however hoping we finally get what's coming.

8/27/2009 5:06:52 PM

Quote :

"but i'm jealous of AIGs gains "

yeah, I should have stopped looking at it when I sold, but curiosity keeps getting the better of me. Shit was damn near $50 today! Oh well, I made over 50%... take it and move on.

8/27/2009 5:19:17 PM

65k??

Wat?

8/27/2009 5:26:23 PM

I had a couple days before the rally started that I made 65k and 70k respectively on SRS and SKF options. I posted a pic of the trade in here a while back.

8/27/2009 5:28:12 PM

Go back through the thread, dude loaded up on calls right at the bottom and made a killing.

I wish I would have done it in my IRA instead of just my play money account. Hell, I wish I would have taken a portion of my IRA and said fuck it, I'm going to gamble with this money and just let it ride with the same bet I took in my play account (which was FAS right at the bottom for 2.71) then I'd be sitting on a 38k gain right now. I would have sold long before then, but if I could have just mentally thought "alright, this money is being bet on the idea that some day, the market will get back to some valuation that sorta makes sense"

Or done it with SSO, or more or less any stock you could hit on the dartboard.

I agree with zep that it hasn't traded on fundamentals, but I'm not convinced it will see anything near the March lows again without some sort of nasty catalyst, and I think the Fed and Treasury will do anything in their power to prevent that from happening.

We might eventually get back there 1 year from now when everyone realizes we've wasted a ton of money and gone no where, but the trading won't be easy as just loading up like you could have done last Sept or this March.

8/27/2009 5:33:42 PM

That's pretty awesome. Good to see someone is making big money in this craziness.

8/27/2009 5:45:38 PM

It really feels like we're at the end of this rally. It's like March where it was just inching down slowly day after day after day. Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past month yet we're up another 5% on the Dow. Though this all could take another few weeks to drag out. So long as they don't actually reveal what the Fed has been buying, the charade will continue unabated with small pullbacks being plowed in to by all the money managers using it as any excuse to jump in.

8/28/2009 9:12:41 AM

If we see another good drop I'll probably put some money in.

I almost bought a ton of apple when it got down in the 70's but was low on cash and didn't want to tie it all up. Damn hindsight

8/28/2009 9:22:33 AM

thoughts on ETFC?

researching it now.

8/28/2009 3:43:18 PM

Bought 10 more shares of RIMM at $73.50.

I kinda regret selling all my FCX a couple weeks ago. I think copper prices will continue to climb. Maybe I'll buy back in if FreePort dips below 60 again.

8/28/2009 4:18:43 PM

i had my hand on the trigger to buy 100 shares of FCX way back when it was 18 bucks and didn't do it. talk about a low risk trade at that point. i would've sold WAY before now but still. but what really burns me up is BHP...i had been watching that thing for months and really wanted it for my IRA, it dipped below my buy point of $34 in March, i had my trade set to go and didn't push the submit button. it's been basically straight up since that day.

8/28/2009 7:17:58 PM

ETFC up about 15% today.

think i may still buy.

8/31/2009 10:37:09 AM