I think Graham is more of a value pick, I mean he'll be a starter for the rest of the season, might as well hold on to him. Fargas will at best split carries and MAYBE get 1 start.

10/1/2007 5:34:29 PM

yeah thats what i was thinking...plus rhodes will be back soon to add another back to the mix

i picked up dwayne bowe also...dude has been pretty solid at wideout for the Chiefs...had a monster game yesterday...still available in a lot of leagues...assuming Larry Johnson gets his shit together, I'd say Bowe is their 2nd best fantasy player (ahead of Gonzo even)

[Edited on October 1, 2007 at 5:37 PM. Reason : .]

10/1/2007 5:36:17 PM

^ Dude Bowe is definitely becoming a solid #2, very good #3 receiver. I live in kansas so I get all of the chiefs games. Huard targets him and Gonzalez everytime he drops back and Bowe keeps making fucking ridiculous catches in traffic. I think he'll keep up what he is doing especially if the Chiefs are trailing in games.

10/1/2007 5:41:36 PM

^right on...also its always good to hear the perspective of someone living in a market outside of NC...i recall watching Bowe on the Chiefs training camp thing on HBO and he had all the physical tools...just was slow learning the playbook iirc...well he seems to have learned it

10/1/2007 6:23:26 PM

MARONEY IS INACTIVE TONIGHT!

IF YOU WERE SMART ENOUGH TO HANDCUFF SAMMY MORRIS, START HIM INSTEAD!

10/1/2007 7:53:18 PM

down 30 points right now

but

i have Moss and Ocho Cinco playing

he has Gostkowski in

i smell a comeback

10/1/2007 7:54:06 PM

i won 103-39

one guy in my league got a whopping 21 points

10/1/2007 7:55:20 PM

i'm surprised to hear that bowe is still around in a lot of leagues. he was a first round pick (and the 2nd WR taken overall) and is playing for a team with no other threats at WR to speak of...i figured many would be taking a chance on drafting him like i did.

10/1/2007 8:22:46 PM

Haha I picked him up before this past weekend and started him. Really paid off too!

So are the Chargers D/ST just a wash and should I dump them for good now?

10/1/2007 8:31:41 PM

cmon injured maroney

only need 3 TDs from you or so

[Edited on October 1, 2007 at 8:41 PM. Reason : OUT]

10/1/2007 8:41:26 PM

^^^

1. WR don't often pan out in their first year
2. KC passing game is still horrid
3. He wasn't a starter at the beginning of the year

10/1/2007 8:51:35 PM

ha, you can't even pickup vrabel in my yahoo league

10/1/2007 9:20:10 PM

^^your points may be true...but i still think a guy like that is worth a late round pick and give him 5 or 6 games to show if he's worth the roster spot. turns out i was right in this instance...and i did the same with jones drew last year. chances are my sleeper pick for next year won't turn out so well...

10/1/2007 9:45:17 PM

Whether he is worth a pick or not is completely dependent on league size. In smaller leagues, there are probably better guys you can get.


Im in a huge league with huge teams, so he was indeed drafted.
--------------

I hate how brady didn't even look at stallworth in that end zone situation.

10/1/2007 9:53:34 PM

I liked how they ran it down the field and then didn't give it to Morris for the TD

10/1/2007 10:25:15 PM

well there you go!

10/1/2007 10:29:45 PM

The NFL should just cancel the season and give the Patriots the Superbowl championship already.

10/1/2007 10:31:01 PM

god dammit Belifaggot



Maroney inactive... I am going to lose this shit with Maroney not playing and McSnatch getting negative points

10/1/2007 10:31:11 PM

wow, i actually made a good move in picking up sammy morris

10/1/2007 10:47:23 PM

The pats look bored

10/1/2007 10:59:52 PM

god dammit fucking bullshit


Maroney didnt start

McShitfuck got me -7.25

Moss got a last second, meaningless BS TD on 3rd down and 5 with 3 minutes left to put the guy I was playing up ahead by 6...


I repeat, McShitfuck got me -7.25



jesus fucking christ I am pissed

10/1/2007 11:31:48 PM

Yes I won!!! Both my starting RBs, Westbrook & Maroney, were out because I didn't change my roster and wasn't watching gametime decisions. Luckily S Holmes had a good day and S Graham got me some points to push me over #85, Hasselback, Holt and Addai.

This is such a weird fantasy season if you are not an owner of Moss, Brady, Romo, Farve or Manning. Is this the year of the QBs, with Moss as an exception? The stud RBs are not performing or barely and the second level are all injured or splitting time.

10/1/2007 11:39:03 PM

There are still stud RBs, just not the same ones as last year. The former studs are in obviously different situations than last year. Most people don't know enough to keep track of these changes in the offseason.

10/1/2007 11:46:29 PM

League 1: Won by 0.5 points over the worst team..Culpepper saved my ass - Overall record 2-2

League 2: Lost by 5 points...had the 2nd highest point total in the league, only higher total was my opponent...bah - Overall record 2-2

10/2/2007 12:02:23 AM

Travis henry had MRI in his junk. Hopefully he can make all these selvin young pickups worth it!

10/2/2007 12:45:54 AM

The guru just got his ass beat this week

maybe yall should listen to me instead

10/2/2007 12:47:04 AM

And now the results....

Evaluation notes
1. I am going by my league's scoring criteria. (1pt/10 yards, 6pts/tds for, 1pt/25 yards QB)
2. I'm reporting whether the pick was right or not in the fractions (# of right picks/ total picks)
3. I'm also reporting point differential from the correct choice to show how much the good or bad decision gained/cost you ( actual score - highest possible score ).

-------------------------------------------
McNabb @ NYG or Romo vs. STL @ home.
coin flip says: Romo 1/1, -0
YSS: Romo 1/1, -0

RB Julius Jones OR Brian Leonard
coin flip says: Jones 1/1, -0
YSS: Jones 1/1, -0

Adrian Peterson Vs. Marshawn Lynch
coin flip says: lynch 0/1, -1
YSS: Peterson 1/1, -0

do i pray delhomme gets healthy, or go with Anderson against a stout Baltimore D?
coin flip says: go with delhomme
YSS: delhomme

Jericho Cotchery @ BUF or Darrell Jackson vs SEA
coin: Darrell Jackson 0/1, -6.5
YSS: Cotchery 1/1, -0

*Travis Henry @ Indy, *Lamont Jordan @ Miami, Thomas Jones @ Buffalo
coin: Jordan, Jones 1/2, -5
YSS: Jordan, Henry 1/2, -4

*Javon Walker @ Indy, *Deion Branch @ SF, *Devin Hester @ Detroit, Darrell Jackson vs. Seattle, James Jones @ Minn
coin: Hester, James Jones 1/2, -2
YSS: Walker Inactive, so substitute next pick: Jackson, Branch 1/2, -13

Brian Leonard at Dal., Dwayne Bowe at SD, Buster Davis vs KC, Bobby Engram at SF
coin: Leonard, Engram 1/2, -16.5
YSS: Engram, Bowe 2/2, -0

Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Marshawn Lynch
coin: Benson, Brown 1/2, -7
YSS: Brown, Lynch 2/2, -0

Houston v Balt
coin: Balt 0/1, -2
YSS: Balt 0/1, -2

Texans vs Chargers
coin: Texans 0/1, -2
YSS: Chargers 1/1, -0

Benson (@ Det), Gore (v Sea), DeS (v TB),.....pick 2
coin: Benson, DeS 1/2, -4
YSS: Gore, DeS 1/2, -1.5

Pennington vs Buffalo or Kitna vs Chicago?
coin: Kitna 1/1, -0
YSS: Kitna 1/1, -0

Houston D vs Atlanta or Seattle D vs San Fran?
coin: Seattle 1/1, -0
YSS: Houston 0/1, -15

My RBs: Lamont Jordan, Willie Parker, Marion Barber III, who to start?
coin: Jordan, Marion Barber III 2/2, -0
YSS: Parker, Barber 1/2, -1.5

Gore @Sea, A. Peterson @GB, M. Lynch @Jets
coin: Gore, Peterson 1/2, -4
YSS: Gore, Peterson 1/2, -4

D. Stallworth or Buster Davis?
coin: Stallworth 1/1, -0
YSS: Stallworth 1/1, -0

Chester Taylor vs GB, Julius Jones vs STL, Kenny Watson vs NE
coin: Taylor, Jones 1/2, -1
YSS: Jones, Watson 2/2, -0

----------------------

Results

I think all of these are added up correctly.

- QB
Coin: 2/2, 100%, -0 pts, -0 avg
Yahoo flesh bags: 2/2, 100%, -0 pts, -0 avg

- WR/RB
Coin: 11/20, 55%, -47 pts, -2.35 avg
Yahoo flesh bags: 16/20, 80% -20 pts, -1 avg

- Defense
Coin: 1/3, 33%, -4 pts, -1.3 avg
Yahoo: 1/3, 33%, -17 pts, -5.6 avg

- Overall
Coin: 14/25, 56%, -2.04 avg points off perfect
Yahoo: 19/25, 76%, -1.48 avg points off perfect

Conclusions:

- This is a very small statistical sample, nevertheless:
- The Yahoo sit start poll is pretty good
- Being "better than 50%" is an extremely low standard, as the coin (unsurprisingly) can get 50% easily
- Even though Yahoo was right more often, the amount of points we are talking about is miniscule ( 0.5 pts difference per pick, on average ). In other words, on average, these sit start decisions are not going to make a big difference in your overall score.
- It may be harder to predict the performances of defense than WR/RB


We can look at the guru's picks, next.


Modest proposal: You have to consistently outperform the unwashed masses (yahoo) in order to be called a "guru"

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 2:11 AM. Reason : sda]

10/2/2007 1:59:44 AM

i HATE fantasy football, 2 losses by less than a point!!!!

10/2/2007 2:59:10 AM

So I need a sub QB for next week 6. Do I pick up:

Carr vs Arizona (since Delhomme is most likely done)
Warner vs Carolina
Culpepper vs SD ( who got beat but Huard?)
Huard vs Cinci
Harrington vs NYG
McNair/Boller vs STL


I hate to say this but I was leaning towards Harrington, Boller (since McNair looked bad against the Brownies and may get benched shortly if he plays bad again), or Huard.

10/2/2007 9:09:23 AM

I would say Warner or Culpepper

10/2/2007 10:30:45 AM

Started Peyton
Adrian Peterson
Marshwn Lynch
Willie Parker
Reggie Wayne
Dwayne Bowe
Kevin Winslow


Killed the competition in week 4.

10/2/2007 10:39:04 AM

Last Week:
With Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson out, I scoured the waiver wire and picked up M. Muhammad.
With SJ out and Portis on BYE, I picked up Sammy Morris(this was Wednesday of last week).


Looks like I made 2 solid choices there, haha. Helped me win my game.

Too bad I didn't get Culpepper like I was trying to, that would have been another monster pick-up.

Hopefully I can keep this up with the BYE's looming, haha.

10/2/2007 12:31:35 PM

holy shit my team is struggling -- thank you weekly matchups + steven jackson


I have been offered this trade:
LOSE:
Chad Johnson
Ron Dayne

GET:
Torry Holt
Thomas Jones


current wr's:
chad
b. marshall
calvin
james jones
brandon jones
galloway (hurt?)

current rb's:
lynch
jackson
j lewis
pittman
dayne

10/2/2007 12:51:28 PM

^Just keep 85.

10/2/2007 1:28:53 PM

With the situation in STL vs. CIN, you can't lose a receiver like Johnson. He's too valuable in their offense.

I'm doing well except for my RB situation. I have Jordan, Green, and had Caddy until yesterday. My other option was McGahee, which when it was good, was good. Now, however, it's a MASH unit. I picked up Tatum Bell and Rhodes. Fortunately I have managed to stay undefeated and pull out victories even in tough weeks, like this one.

My QB is Peyton, WRs are good with Driver, Galloway, Evans (now maybe showing up), and Kevin Curtis, TE is Winslow. K and DEF are never a worry because you can always pick up another.

10/2/2007 2:13:26 PM

^ I'd say no just because I would not want any Ram offensive player right now. Even Holt.

My two teams won this week. I was winning both matchups as of last night and only I had players still going. I may have got the high score in both leagues

The fantasy baseball gods shitted on me at the end of the season, but the fantasy football gods are shining on me right now. Thank you Brady and Romo.

10/2/2007 2:25:16 PM

I won 118-71, without taking Maroney out of the starting lineup. Each week, I get the choice of starting Carson Palmer or Tony Romo at QB. This week, it was Romo, and will be again this week, since Palmer is off. My biggest issue each week is WR, though my choices seem to work out. I am 4-0, and the closest game I had was 16 points.

10/2/2007 2:26:17 PM

so check this out, it will blow your mind

I have the second most points in a 10 man league

yet i am 7th overall...

1-3 record...
basically people have career days against me that I cant compete with, just the unlucky matchups really.


2nd in points, 7th in standings

10/2/2007 3:01:06 PM

Wow, that just blew my mind.

Happens all the time. You'll win in the long run.

10/2/2007 3:03:14 PM

Quote :

"You'll win in the long run"

thats what always happens to me in the playoffs...i get like the 2nd highest point total that week but the 1st highest total is my opponent...hey just like last night in one league

10/2/2007 3:11:51 PM

what the hell is galloway's status


and who is more valuable fantasy wise --- Pittman or Graham (TB rb's)

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 3:12 PM. Reason : 1]

10/2/2007 3:12:10 PM

^everybody is saying Pittman should get more carries and yards but that Graham will get the goal line carries...but also both of them can play both HB and FB so they might both be in the game a good bit...I picked up Graham (2 rushing yards and 2 TDs is better fantasy wise than 100 yards and no scores) in both of my leagues...both of them should be decent pickups though since Cadillac is out for the season (if not longer)

10/2/2007 3:14:14 PM

start 2:
lynch (vs DAL)
j - lew (@ NE)
pittman (@ IND)
dayne (vs Miami)
s. jackson (out)

10/2/2007 3:22:05 PM

mark bulger + stephen jackson as my top two picks = totally screwed

It's an 8 team league, so there is plenty of quality depth to choose from to salvage the season, but it pisses me off that I am still behind in the standings to some morons who start players who are on a bye week or out for injury.

10/2/2007 3:31:29 PM

Portis apparently is having knee problems again...ugh. With SJ and Portis out I'm down to making Sammy Morris an every week starter...hopefully Maroney is out for a while, haha.

10/2/2007 4:46:18 PM

^^why did you take bulger with a top 15 pick?? even worse that he is the quarterback of the team of your (thought to be...and may still be) stud running back

10/2/2007 5:20:28 PM

auto draft... actually i just looked again and bulger was my third pick with ronnie brown my second. ronnie brown is starting to come on

10/2/2007 5:27:18 PM

Is Portis out? If so I gotta go get Betts off the waiver wire in one of my leagues. I can't remember a year where there was so much inconsistency, injuries, and committees regarding RBs in football.

Also has anyone heard any news on Marvin Harrison?

10/2/2007 5:37:16 PM

I need Defense help....

Who Should I pick up?
Detroit SF
Tenn Buf
NY Clev
Cinn St Lou
Oak Was
AZ No

I am thinking Tenn or Oak. What are your takes?

10/2/2007 8:25:18 PM

I won this week because my opponent started two bye-week players, two injured players, and two guys that didn't end up scoring at all. Romo outscored his whole team.


I have both Jacobs and Ward (Giants) - assuming they both play, who should I start? I tried the Brian Leonard experiment last week and it didn't work out very well.

^Or Arizona, they're playing the Rams.

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 8:30 PM. Reason : ^]

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 8:30 PM. Reason : ]

10/2/2007 8:28:33 PM