Hamilton could do everything he's done this season and have 65 rbi's

He has 95 because of the MOTHERFUCKERS IN FRONT OF HIM

It is a totally dependent stat

It gives no indication of a player's ability or production



Of course I watches Hamilton last night and of course I was impressed

but it doesn't mean anything



[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM. Reason : and I do believe in someone being clutch and Hamilton is, but its a minor part of the total package]

7/15/2008 5:49:22 PM

BA with RISP is the reason why your boy and Hamilton's RBI stats aren't a little closer. If Burrell was more of a clutch hitter, then maybe he could help his team out more than Hamilton has.

7/15/2008 6:06:21 PM

Quote :

"did you see what he did last night?"

I can't believe people are using the Home Run Derby to justify what they think of Hamilton. It's fucking batting practice.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 6:08 PM. Reason : ]

7/15/2008 6:06:52 PM

Hamilton creates more outs

Burrell provides more opportunities

7/15/2008 6:14:03 PM

^^yet he did better in batting practice than anyone else has in years if not ever...besides it seems kind of unfair to downplay what he did last night as just calling it "batting practice"...that makes it sound like anybody could do it

and I'm using the entire 1st half of the season on what I think of Hamilton...last night was icing on the cake

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 6:22 PM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 6:19:48 PM

Quote :

"Burrell provides more opportunities"

for the batters behind him to end the inning.

7/15/2008 6:26:27 PM

Like I said before, I think Hamilton is a pretty good baseball player. But I don't think it has anything to do with his RBI totals or his work in the Home Run Derby, and I can't think of any other way to explain how stupid it is for people to use those two things in evaluating his talent, so I'll just stop before this turns into another silly argument with TreeTwista.

7/15/2008 10:33:19 PM

his complete absence from baseball and near dominance sense should be evidence enough of how amazing a ball player he is... a moron ? absolutely. but that's irrelevant

7/15/2008 10:44:09 PM

since*

7/15/2008 11:25:45 PM

Quote :

"kurkijan has also never seen a vagina and HR derby = dunk contest in terms of actual game relevance Hamilton put on a hell of a show, but it did nothing to change my argument "

I was just linking to the video of his 28 homers, not commenting on whatever argument may or may not be going on

7/16/2008 9:42:13 AM

Quote :

"It gives no indication of a player's ability or production"

You are sadly mistaken. While RBI's are dependent on the runners in front of you his performance with RISP has been incredible and is what separates stars from average players.

Its called being clutch.

7/16/2008 1:31:23 PM

he could hit 250 RBIs and some people would try to give all the credit to Kinsler and Young

7/16/2008 1:35:13 PM

Quote :

"Its called being clutch."

HA

There have been a billion studies about "clutch hitting", by people who know a lot more about this than you or I. They all pretty much agree that being "clutch" is just being lucky.

Read this: http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2008/07/clutch-hitting-new-study-from-pete.html

Quote :

"he could hit 250 RBIs and some people would try to give all the credit to Kinsler and Young"

Ah, the ol straw man argument, Treetwista's favorite move.

7/16/2008 1:45:36 PM

RBIs and Runs and things like that are way too simple for a fan as knowledgeable as Ernie. Hits? Who gives a fuck, its all about OBP. Runs? Who cares, its all about BAAWRSPISCSIG, any real fan knows this.

You say RBIs are stupid...you also say ERA and Wins are dumb stats for pitchers because they rely too much on what other players behind them do...well guess what Ernie, its a team sport, not an individual sport

7/16/2008 1:54:58 PM

Quote :

"he could hit 250 RBIs and some people would try to give all the credit to Kinsler and Young "

god damn jews

7/16/2008 2:03:34 PM

^^Well, I guess A-Rod would just be considered extremely unlucky considering his past performance down the stretch recently.

7/16/2008 2:03:36 PM

Quote :

" HA There have been a billion studies about "clutch hitting", by people who know a lot more about this than you or I. They all pretty much agree that being "clutch" is just being lucky. "

The point I was making is that Slave said that his 90+ RBI vs 60+ would not be possible if there were not batters in front of him. He also said RBI gives no indication of a players ability or production which is the most ignorant statement I have heard on this board. Runs and RBI's are THE indication of a players ability and production. When a player puts up consistent numbers across multiple seasons these numbers are compared to the other position players and determine, in part, what the market rate for that player is. Based on Slave's argument, contract negotiations are based on how hard you hit the ball when you grounded/flied out, how hard you ran to 1st when you were thrown out, and on a scale of 1-10 how hot your wife is.

Bring "clutch" is certainly not something a bell curve can show. With RISP a batters stance and whole approach to hitting changes. Great players do this but lets be honest, this is why they call baseball "The Show." Hitting, pitching, stealing a bag, etc are all clutch in the majors when you consider the talent throughout the league.



[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 2:20 PM. Reason : .]

7/16/2008 2:15:34 PM

WOLFeatRAM, meet Sabermetrics

Sabermetrics, meet WOLFeatRAM

7/16/2008 2:23:03 PM

yeah look how easy Sabermetrics are to understand



runs created = (hits + walks - caught stealing + hit by pitch - ground into double play) x (total bases + (.26 x (walks - intentional walks + hit by pitch)) + (.52 x (sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies + sacrifice bunts)) / at bats + walks + hit by pitch + sac hits + sac flies

its so easy

7/16/2008 2:28:03 PM

Quote :

" Runs and RBI's are THE indication of a players ability and production "

WRONG. They are indicators, but they are clumsy metrics. There are much better ways to prove that Josh Hamilton is having am amazing season, EQA for example

summer reading:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com

The Hidden Game of Baseball by John Thorn and Pete Palmer

Bill James' Baseball Abstract

Baseball Between the Numbers by Jonah Keri and the BP guys
http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Between-Numbers-Everything-About/dp/0465005969

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 2:36 PM. Reason : a]

7/16/2008 2:34:40 PM

smart people get it

The others just look at the counting stats (Gee, he has 95 rbi's ! Thats a big number ! He must be great !) and base their viewpoints off those

7/16/2008 2:34:56 PM

Quote :

" WOLFeatRAM, meet Sabermetrics Sabermetrics, meet WOLFeatRAM"

Your not adressing the topic really. My main reply was that RBI and runs are THE indication of an offensive players performance. Is it fair? Not really when you look a players who have a better OBP but less RBI and runs, but your probably one of those guys that thinks being fair is how the world should be.

Quote :

"well guess what Ernie, its a team sport, not an individual sport"

Exactly.

7/16/2008 2:37:15 PM

informed people get it

i don't see how you can learn about WARP and not think it is a better measuring stick than RUNS or, god forbid, STEALS

7/16/2008 2:38:00 PM

it is THE way that some people measure offensive performance.
but it isn't THE BEST way.

7/16/2008 2:38:47 PM

if people want to say RBI is a stupid stat because it relies on what other players do then thats fine. Of course, ALL stats rely on what other players do, so you might as well just say all stats are stupid except for a teams Wins and Losses

Quote :

"smart people get it"

Quote :

"informed people get it"

can one of you two please explain the .26 and .52 coefficients that we multiply by walks and hbp, and sacrifices, respectively? i'm not smart and/or informed enough to understand where they got those values, please explain

7/16/2008 2:44:07 PM

Quote :

" it is THE way that some people measure offensive performance. but it isn't THE BEST way. "

I can buy into that, but the major stat categories are what get players signed, become residents of the MLB, and get into the hall of fame. Im not saying this is the BEST way, but it is THE method that is used.

7/16/2008 2:46:53 PM

Runs created is more accurate for predicting the amount of runs a team will score based on input values (doubles, walks, steals, cs, etc...) than it is for individual player performance

I have no idea where Bill James got his coefficients, but just googling "runs created" will get you a wiki or BP explanation.

He spent more time tweaking and tinkering the formula than most of us have done any one thing in our jobs this year. Except maybe bitch at people on the internet. Wiki sez:

Quote :

"Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error.2 Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate."

But the point is, TweeTwista, the point of VORP, WARP3, and all those "ridiculous" formulas IS to isolate a player's performance from outside factors (team, position, ballpark, pitching faced, etc) and figure out how valuable x player really is. RBI isn't AWFUL, but Hack Wilson didn't have the single best offensive season of all time, either.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 3:01 PM. Reason : -]

7/16/2008 3:00:10 PM

also, sabermetrics, RBI, flaming arm tattoos, or however you wanna measure it

Hamilton's having a very awesome year

7/16/2008 3:02:45 PM

Quote :

"to isolate a player's performance from outside factors (team, position, ballpark, pitching faced, etc) and figure out how valuable x player really is."

but you cant do that...ALL stats are dependent on all types of things...if one stat is stupid because it relies on what other players do, so are all other stats...is the guy batting 8th in the lineup really all that valuable as an individual player if he gets a lot of 2 out walks because the opposing pitcher would rather face his pitcher in the 9th spot? if you look back at my posts in this thread i don't think you'll see many posts that claim RBIs are the be all end all, or that AVG is more important than OBP, etc

but you also have people in here that ONLY look at the numbers and ignore everything else...you could say someone that went 0/0 with 5 walks had just as good a game as someone who went 5/5 with 5 singles and zero RBIs...but you'd also be a complete retard to try and claim that getting 5 walks in a game means you're as good a player as someone who gets 5 hits, simply because the OBP is the same...when you start putting too much faith in complicated stats and ignoring the fact that some people are good ballplayers, you're out of touch with baseball

^exactly...i said throw all the stats out the window...if you have watched hamilton play over the first half of the year, you know he's a good player...you dont need any stats you just need to know baseball and watch him play

7/16/2008 3:07:26 PM

Quote :

"You say RBIs are stupid...you also say ERA and Wins are dumb stats for pitchers because they rely too much on what other players behind them do...well guess what Ernie, its a team sport, not an individual sport"

It really amazes me that you are this dense. This thread is about Josh Hamilton, not the Texas Rangers. Like I've said a thousand times in this thread, RBI are not a good way to evaluate INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE. Pay attention, TreeTwista.

I love that TreeTwista thinks he's overturning decades ofwork by people like James, Neyer, etc. This thread is about to get awesome.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 3:14 PM. Reason : ]

7/16/2008 3:13:15 PM

This thread is about Josh Hamilton, not the Texas Rangers the merits of RBIs

"RBI are not a good way to evaluate INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE"

i like seeing how you look differently at stats when talking about Josh Hamilton versus Brett Favre...its pretty hilarious

Quote :

"James, Neyer, etc."

i'm sure those guys have had a lot of success on the field in some capacity

7/16/2008 3:14:12 PM

Looks like Verne Lundtwist is blinded by the 'fantasy statistics'

The numbers he sees everyday and in every box score

You can't value a player's worth by totals

Its all about percentages

Basketball stats are the best indicators of success among the 4 sports

Because they're the only ones that use an average of the stats instead of total counting numbers

7/16/2008 3:18:29 PM

Quote :

"i like seeing how you look differently at stats when talking about Josh Hamilton versus Brett Favre...its pretty hilarious"

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST

You are incredible. When did I say something about Favre's RBI totals. I never said INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS aren't a good way to measure INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE. I said THIS STATISTIC, RBI, is a poor way to measure INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE.

--

Quote :

"i'm sure those guys have had a lot of success on the field in some capacity"

About as much as you did. One is a consultant for the Red Sox and the other is the most respected journalist/writer in baseball. They've both been crunching numbers for 30+ years. They know what they're talking about. You have no clue.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 3:21 PM. Reason : ]

7/16/2008 3:20:32 PM

attn

having played a sport makes you more qualified to evaluate statistical measures of player performance

add moneyball to the summer reading list

7/16/2008 3:21:06 PM

i prefer actually watching athletes play their sports than putting too much stock in any particular stat

you guys can crunch your numbers, i'll just stick to watching baseball

7/16/2008 3:21:42 PM

Keep finding different ways to say you have no clue what you're talking about. It's fun to watch.

7/16/2008 3:22:31 PM

i never watch sports and evaluate athletes, i just read statistics books like Ernie does

7/16/2008 3:25:59 PM

Seems like Treeter Gammons here prefers the good ol' boy approach of calling it like he sees it

7/16/2008 3:28:26 PM

Quote :

"i never watch sports and evaluate athletes, i just read statistics books like Ernie does"

Straw man approach didn't work, time for the TreeTwista backup plan: just make up some shit!

7/16/2008 3:32:21 PM

Quote :

"HA There have been a billion studies about "clutch hitting""

sounds like the ultimate nerd's perspective

HA

EVERYTHING IS QUANTIFIABLE'

besides most of the stuff you're arguing with me about was stuff RALLY said, not stuff i said...go back and read through the thread and my posts...its funny you keep accusing me of strawmen when you're simply making shit up that i never said...but hey thats what you do right Ernie

7/16/2008 3:37:13 PM

Yeah I'm a nerd, man. But I'm fucking right. I'm always fucking right.

--

Quote :

"its funny you keep accusing me of strawmen when you're simply making shit up that i never said"

When I accused you of the straw man argument, I was using a direct quote of yours. Sometimes I feel like we're reading two different TWWs.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 3:39 PM. Reason : ]

7/16/2008 3:38:21 PM

Quote :

"Well, there's no point in arguing with you, I know you've never been wrong on the internet, but that's pretty stupid."

^you're acting like i've been one of the people who said "HAMILTON IS GOOD BECAUSE OF RBIS"

go read back through the thread instead of making shit up...at least call me out on arguments i try to make and not dumb arguments that other people tried to make

7/16/2008 3:39:22 PM

That was to Rally.

7/16/2008 3:39:41 PM

and when i quoted it it was to you because you're just as hardheaded as anybody else

i'm sure rally found the irony when you posted it the first time as well

7/16/2008 3:41:15 PM

Yes, I'm hard-headed but I try to be logical about it. Here's my final say (hopefully). I've just been trying to point out that there are much better ways to evaluate players than the conventional counting stats approach, which really tells you nothing. You don't need to pay attention to these types of things to enjoy the game. But it's silly to act like they're just bullshit numbers made up by jobless dorks in their mom's basement (Joe Morgan zone). You can't argue against something if you don't understand it. And it would serve a lot of you well to actually read up on this and see the other side of the argument. I'm not saying you have to, but if you don't, you can't expect to argue against it and be taken seriously.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 4:33 PM. Reason : ]

7/16/2008 4:33:14 PM

Ernie

Never in this thread have I said anything about counting stats being the final say, or downplaying percentages. I do think that you're downplaying the significance of a big RBI total, ie if he finishes the year with 160, but I also know he is a great player just from watching ~75 of his at bats this year.

And don't you think baseball is one of the most difficult sports to predict statistically because of all the other factors? If a pitcher is lights out one game, even the best hitters could go 0-fer, whereas the best players in another sport like football or basketball will still get points even if its at a lesser shooting percentage. Or if an average player tends to get walked a lot with 2 outs just because the player after him sucks, that doesn't mean the average player is better than average just because his OBP gets boosted up as a result of the next better simply being shitty. Because of that, I don't put as much faith in the long complex equations in baseball as I would put in something like efficiency rating in basketball which makes a lot more sense to me (basically adds up Pts + Ast + Reb + Stl + Blk and then subtacts missed FGs, FTs and 3Pts)

I mean look at AVG vs. OBP...I fully agree 100% that OBP is more important than batting average...however there are plenty of times when its not nearly the same and OBP is less important...for example, if you lead off the inning with a single or walk, the results are exactly the same...runner on first no outs...no difference in the outcomes...compare that to coming to the plate with runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs...compare a walk versus a single...a single brings in 2 runs...a walk brings in no runs and increases opportunities for a force play

7/16/2008 4:48:07 PM

Quote :

"Yeah I'm a nerd, man. But I'm fucking right. I'm always fucking right."

Didn't you claim you would leave TWW forever if you were wrong one time?

Then you were?

I don't have a side to this argument, just throwing that out there.

7/16/2008 4:50:41 PM

^ No, never happened. I'm always right.

--

Quote :

" Never in this thread have I said anything about counting stats being the final say, or downplaying percentages. I do think that you're downplaying the significance of a big RBI total, ie if he finishes the year with 160, but I also know he is a great player just from watching ~75 of his at bats this year."

Like the BP article I quoted earlier said, counting stats are most useful at the margins; it's hard to have 150 RBI and have a bad season.

Quote :

"And don't you think baseball is one of the most difficult sports to predict statistically because of all the other factors?"

No sport is easy to forecast, but baseball statisticians are certainly further along in doing so than anyone else. There are few good models out there and a bunch of bad ones, but none are anywhere close to 100%. Baseball should be an easier sport to build prediction models for, though, because everything is represented by statistics (there's no great way to judge an offensive lineman's contribution or a basketball player's defense, for example). Every play, every action, can be broken down and pushed into the model and you can't do that in other sports. Things like pitchFX are making prediction and analysis tools even more accurate.

Quote :

"I would put in something like efficiency rating in basketball"

Linear weights, Runs Created, WARP, VORP, and a bunch of other stats try to do that.

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 5:02 PM. Reason : ]

7/16/2008 5:02:35 PM

too early to tell if hes great or not, hes having a good year, and although the show he put on was amazing, it doesnt justify what other players have done over decades. you just gotta give the dude some time and see if he goes back to the needles/pipes/rolled up dollar bills

[Edited on July 16, 2008 at 5:03 PM. Reason : .]

7/16/2008 5:03:13 PM

ernie is a propeller head

7/16/2008 5:11:22 PM