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11/17/2009 12:46:24 AM

i love all this talk about manning being so good. He always chokes in the playoffs when SD plays him

11/17/2009 7:53:06 AM

I've heard enough about that play, so I'm going to contribute another dumb play from last Sunday.

Same game. Brady gets intercepted in the end zone about 5 yards deep and the defensive player decides that he's going to run it out. He's nearly tackled at the 1 yard line but eventually gets out to the 14. Just take a knee. You'll get the ball on the 20.

You see this during college games all the time, but I thought they would have figured this out by the time you reach the pro level. If he had a wide open field in front of him that's one thing, but that definitely wasn't the case.

I remember this very thing during an NCSU game. I want to say that it was the 2005 NCSU vs. FSU (@ FSU) game. Our defense intercepts in the end zone, runs it out of the end zone to the 1 or 2 yard line, runs BACK into the end zone to scramble around some tacklers, and just barely makes it back out again to avoid the safety. I think I damaged a vocal chord screaming at the TV when I saw that unfold. I can't remember if it was the same series we purposely took a safety (rather than kick out of the end zone) to protect a lead.

11/17/2009 8:02:20 AM

St Louis got a safety like that just the other week vs Detroit

Dude picks it off a few yards deep, runs it out, cuts back into the endzone and gets tackled for 2 points

The ref was very emphatic with the call, probably because he never sees that happen



And I disagree about running it out...Mose DBs can cover 20 yards in less than 3 seconds, and if they have any sort of seam, its usually worth it to try to bring it out

The chance of a 104 yard return is worth the risk of being tackled before you get back to the 20 in most cases

11/17/2009 9:12:43 AM

Yeah a sudden change of possesion like that especially on a deep ball. I think you have to run it if you get the chance.

11/17/2009 9:19:49 AM

That's situational. If the whole of boths teams are within 10 yards of the end zone then running it out makes no sense. But if you intercept a bomb and there's not many people around to catch you then you run like you've never run before.

11/17/2009 9:19:50 AM

I think defensive players just get so fucking excited when they get the ball, that the only thing on their mind is "I'm taking this to the fucking house!!!" They know they're in the end zone, but they think all they have to to is get by a bunch of fat offensive lineman and a QB, and they're gold.

I think they're in the same mindset when they lateral the ball. These guys just rarely get their hands on the football, so they get so excited when they do that they just don't want the play to die. Like when DeAngelo Hall lateraled it in the Skins/Broncos game. Fucking retarded play, may have picked them up an extra couple yards, but he just didn't want that play to be over and wanted to get 6 points for his team so bad that he almost gave the ball back.

There is a reason why they are playing defense and not offense...and you see it when they drop easy INTs and do dumbshit like not take a knee or lateral the ball.

11/17/2009 9:24:27 AM

The "lateral" in the Clemson/FSU game was classic, when the dude just slung it underhanded 30 yards across the field to no one in particular

But I think most of the time laterals make sense, especially from a lineman to a linebacker or defensive back...the chance to score on that particular play is usually greater than the chance your offense can score if they get the ball at that particular spot

But while discretion should be exercised, its usually not...as jbrick mentioned, since most of these guys only touch the ball a few times a year, all logic goes out the window when they get their hands on it

[Edited on November 17, 2009 at 9:29 AM. Reason : x]

11/17/2009 9:29:34 AM

for all of you saying that the patriots convert 4th and 2 approximately 75-80% of the time so going for it gave them a 75-80% chance of winning, which is greater than the chance of winning had they punted. what if the the ball had been on the 8 yrd line instead of the 28. there odds of converting are still the same and the odds of peyton scoring on a punt are greater. would u still go for it? according to your numbers, going for it would still be the right call, but NO ONE would do that. what ya think tdub?

11/17/2009 9:53:42 AM

Quote :

"there odds of converting are still the same and the odds of peyton scoring on a punt are greater. would u still go for it? according to your numbers, going for it would still be the right call, but NO ONE would do that. what ya think tdub?"

I honestly think the odds of Peyton and company scoring from the 30 yard line as opposed to the 8 yard line with more than 2 minutes is really not that big of a difference.

But that extra 30 yards in the situation that did occur, is a huge difference. You take a sack or have two complete passes where the defender can't get out of bounds, and then you're really rushing to get the ball in the end zone and might have a 20 or 30 yard heave to get it in (or things could go perfect, and you wouldn't have to rush). I look at what San Diego did against New York as what Indy would have been face with. It might have looked easy...but it rarely works out that well in those circumstances.

However, if you start at the 30, you can take a sack or have a couple plays where the clock keeps running, and still be inside the 10 with a couple of shots at the end zone. Of course it would be cake if you get it at the 8 yard line...but not too much of a difference than getting it at the 30.

[Edited on November 17, 2009 at 10:08 AM. Reason : .]

11/17/2009 10:07:18 AM

He is saying if the Pats had 4th and 2 from their own 8 instead of their own 28, according to some of yall, they'd still have a 75-80% chance of converting

even though it would be 10x more retarded to go for it on 4th and 2 from your own 8

11/17/2009 11:29:45 AM

But they would have even less chance of winning had they not converted...is what I believe he is saying...but also a less chance of winning if they punt. So he's saying...percentage wise, the differences cancel out and it's the same percentage in both situations.

Perception wise, it just looks a lot dumber because you are giving Peyton the ball inside the 10 as opposed to the 30. But at the same time, Peyton scores 99 times out of 100 from inside the 10...and maybe 90 times out of 100 inside the 30. Either way it's still a bad decision considering the consequences.

11/17/2009 11:36:00 AM

^why do the colts have a punter then?

11/17/2009 11:38:41 AM

Maybe the percentages are neglible, but the simple relationship is, the closer you are to your own endzone, the less likely you are to go for it

So while going for 4th and 2 from your own 28 is "gutsy", going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 8 is "really dumb"

11/17/2009 11:39:10 AM

Quote :

"i love all this talk about manning being so good. He always chokes in the playoffs when SD plays him"

11/17/2009 11:45:35 AM

Quote :

"So while going for 4th and 2 from your own 28 is "gutsy", going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 8 is "really dumb""

I think both are really dumb.

^^^Was that a serious question?? We're talking about scoring from inside the 30 yard line. Your appropriate question should have been, "Why do the Colts even had a field goal kicker??"

And sure, the percentages might be a little exaggerated, but not too far off. The Colts have a great offense with one of the best QBs ever. He also steps it up quite a bit with the game on the line, and in that situation you are using 4 downs instead of three. So I think those assumptions of how often they score are pretty accurate (99 out of 100 being little much though).

[Edited on November 17, 2009 at 11:48 AM. Reason : .]

11/17/2009 11:47:49 AM

Dungy telling it like it is

Quote :

"Dungy also weighed in on whether Manning was a better clutch quarterback than the Patriots' Tom Brady. "Your coach wouldn't punt the ball to Peyton," Dungy said in referring to Patriots coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 deep in his own territory rather than give the ball back to Manning late in the Colts' Week 10, 35-34 victory. "I would punt the ball to Tom Brady with one minute left," Dungy said. "Your coach is the best coach in the world and wouldn't punt it to [Manning]. What does that say?""

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4889508

2/5/2010 12:25:07 PM