David, certainly you might want to move from the bond position. Have you considered a sector fund that may take advantage of the economic climate such as a tech or natural resources fund? I do not use a lot of vanguard funds with my clients so I am not sure what they offer in that realm, but it might be worth a peek.

1/31/2011 3:57:16 PM

Thx for the info. Where do you work? I'm large cap heavy in my 401K so that contains a lot of tech. Plus I own a fair amount of IBM and to a lesser extent AAPL and GOOG. I also own a natural resource fund which contains

Security Net Assets
Xstrata PLC (XTA) 5.55%
Alpha Natural Resources Inc (New) (ANR) 4.73%
S&P500 EMINI FUT MAR 11 3.95%
Halliburton Company (HAL) 3.70%
S&P/TSX 60 IDX FUT MAR11 3.65%
Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd. (CNQ) 3.51%
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) 3.14%
Petrohawk Energy Corporation (HK) 2.73%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation A (COG) 2.39%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) 2.32%

1/31/2011 7:07:27 PM

sold my $goog calls on the pop this morning. left some profit in play, but at least locked in a 11% gain.

2/1/2011 9:41:59 AM

Quote :

"Has anyone picked up some EGPT? "

???

2/1/2011 12:39:21 PM

picked up some mar $spx 1285 puts on this pop - there has to be another pullback (although not to the extent of friday's) after this massive 2 day rally.

2/1/2011 1:06:25 PM

TUP w00t w00t

2/1/2011 2:06:49 PM

Can Apple corner the display market?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/01/can-apple-corner-the-display-market/

2/1/2011 3:53:46 PM

Five 0, do you not having losing trades or something?

Or...are these threads just unofficially "post the trades that work"?

2/1/2011 9:14:36 PM

I believe I have posted previously when I have lost ontrades. However this year i only have one loss of somewhere around $100 on my INTC earnings play. I'm currently a little down slightly on my newsest $spx position. My trades so far this year are 11 wins and 1 loss this year with my portfolio up over 170% on the year. I've been getting lucky this year so far, but I'll quit posting my positions so you won't think I'm trying to do whatever it is you think I'm doing in here lol. Good luck to all.

2/1/2011 9:35:49 PM

The second statement was a comment to everyone. Over the years, people just rarely post losing trades, I'm sure I'm guilty of it too. I guess it's just a bit "ok, whatever man" when people are only posting their wins and making not even a mention of a losing trade.

170% on the year huh? I'm just curious, what is your position size? How long are you holding positions?

2/1/2011 9:56:22 PM

I post losing trades. Definitely down on my RIMM position. I see what you mean though. Just like those blackjack players who always win in the casino.

2/1/2011 10:50:18 PM

I don't really have many losing trades...

partially because I'm guilty of riding losers all the way to the dirt. I don't have many of those, but I've pretty much held on to my losers. In some cases, it's worked out well...RHT and CTSH, for example, have rebounded fiercely since taking big dives. Others, like, GRMN, I should have sold when I was up 100%+ instead of getting greedy and watching it crash and burn (or at least come down from stratospheric valuations).

I still own it, though.

I also have unrealized losses in Shuffle Master, FedEx, Cemex, Toyota, and probably some others that I'm forgetting.


__________________________

Sold 4 call contracts on SSO today. $54 strike price at $0.35 (or was it $0.36?) for a net premium of around $130.

Hopefully I can keep averaging $100/month or so in my pocket by just selling SSO calls that I don't really think will be executed.

2/1/2011 11:04:48 PM

SSO options are where I gets me beer money.

Sold Feb $48 puts at .98 last week and bought to close at .55 today.

2/1/2011 11:51:41 PM

^^^^
This year I took all my money out of my portfolio and just left 5k in, so not a significant amount. Depending on what I'm trading, my position size ranges from a couple of hundred dollars to all of my money. I lost I think half on my INTC trade, but I only had 200 in it - it was more of just a gamble play. My other trades tend to be more substantial. Right now I'm sitting right around 13.5k. In the past, I tended to play all kinds of stocks and went for more of a gambling style (which ate up alot of commissions). This year, I'm trying to refine my style by betting on just a few names and paying more attention to them - so far it's been $spx, $iwm, $goog (once), $stra (once), $v (once) and $intc (fail). I like $spx and $good because the cost of the options are much higher, so I can get a better return with less paid in commissions. Oh, and I've been typically holding each position for just around 1 - 3 days (max) - typically just 1. I just look for bottoms and tops and it's worked out pretty okay so far.

2/2/2011 8:47:12 AM

^^Do you have to have a margin account in order to sell calls/puts?

2/2/2011 8:48:45 AM

Quote :

"I'm guilty of riding losers all the way to the dirt. I don't have many of those"

Ha. I hear that.

2/2/2011 9:46:50 AM

Quote :

"SSO options are where I gets me beer money. Sold Feb $48 puts at .98 last week and bought to close at .55 today."

Whoops. I meant $.45.

2/2/2011 2:36:19 PM

most of my losses are worthless to post ... supersmall percentages normally ...

If I buy a winner only 50% of the time, I will be WELL into the money, because I keep my stops tight and my finger on the trigger right after purchasing, and I normally purchase long at places of support, and then set my stops right under the support.

Normally dont loose more than $100 or so on $10k trades.

2/2/2011 4:58:26 PM

I just buy and hold. Anything more is far too time consuming for me.

2/2/2011 5:51:02 PM

interesting blog for those who are interested in the technology side of HFT

http://howtohft.blogspot.com/

2/3/2011 11:06:49 AM

I couldn't stand it and made my first trade for the year, a whopping -3 on a Feb 131/127 Put spread on GLD for .90 that is about .06 underwater at the moment. The idea here is the Gold correction is getting a little long in the tooth and the lackluster jobs numbers will remind everyone of how Bernanke knows only how to print money.

Though, it could also remind people how deflation became all the rage in April of last year and we could finally get the correction in the broader markets (of which Gold will also be affected) people have been clamoring for weeks for.

I'm feeling something in China or Europe is going to have to scare people back into dollars to get that kicked off and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

2/6/2011 10:59:15 PM

^ This trade is up 120% on paper but who knows how the market will open tomorrow.

2/8/2011 7:46:41 PM

hopefully the market slows down and goes flat (or just creeps upward) for the next couple of weeks. I'd kinda prefer for SSO to stay <$54, as I'm not really looking for it to get called away.

2/8/2011 11:02:21 PM

^ i'm hoping we can get a pullback/correction in the s&p for a few days. getting crushed on my latest two trades (iwm and spx puts) and i'd like to just get out even at this point.

2/9/2011 8:59:25 AM

Any interesting stocks people are eyeing right now?

2/9/2011 11:39:22 AM

I'm still loving my aapl and recently purchased some vz.

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 11:46 AM. Reason : ]

2/9/2011 11:45:13 AM

Selling some March 58 puts on EWY.

2/9/2011 2:52:56 PM

I think this is my first post in this thread. I may have ventured into the 2010 thread once or twice. I am in no way an active trader and I usually stick to one or two buys or sells a year.

One stock that I have been watching and buying has been TCAP.

2/9/2011 2:56:45 PM

Quote :

"^ This trade is up 120% on paper but who knows how the market will open tomorrow."

Of course I couldn't close the trade out because I couldn't get a connection on the phone. And now it's going to only be up 60% after commission.

2/10/2011 7:14:23 AM

Quote :

"12/8/2010 CSCO BOUGHT 150 SHARES OF CSCO AT $19.3399"

Quote :

"2/8/2011 CSCO SOLD 150 SHARES OF CSCO AT $21.821"

12.8% in two months isn't bad. Could've done a little better if I had sold at a different time within the last few days, but not much. Overall, I'm happy with my timing. Seeing the stock down over 13% today makes me glad to have gotten out when I did. Of course, now I'm thinking of picking it back up.

[Edited on February 10, 2011 at 1:48 PM. Reason : s]

2/10/2011 1:47:24 PM

Finally back in the black on some VOT that I bought at $65.28 on 5/16/08 and rode all the way down. Fortunately I bought a larger lot at $39.47 a year later and am now up ~30% with it at $66.

2/10/2011 3:21:37 PM

haven't posted here in a while.

i bought FFIV after it dropped a couple of weeks ago, stopped out of it at the open this morning, along with some EDC. bought CREE after it dropped around the same time, but it hasn't gone anywhere yet. also bought TSL thinking crude would spike, but nothing doing..

BIDU keeping me strong.

that correction can't get here fast enough... when it does i'm looking to go long all those 3x ETFs i love so much. i've also been meaning to make a list of stuff for which i will buy leaps and long dated calls on when the correction does arrive.

2/10/2011 3:48:48 PM

I closed my GLD vertical at .37 today, so 119% after commission. It's too bad I'm so risk averse.

2/10/2011 6:06:19 PM

Speaking of Crisco

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/cisco-employee-responds-to-ceo-chambers.html

2/10/2011 8:33:02 PM

I can't decide if I should go ahead and buy some more of Cisco or just maintain status quo.

2/10/2011 8:49:54 PM

Looking at the stock, it's gotten whacked the past 3 earnings announcements and recovered all the way to the next announcement. I'd expect it to work the same way this quarter too. The only caveat is if the correction does come it will take everything with it, otherwise, Cisco isn't going anywhere.

2/10/2011 8:57:08 PM

Does anyone do anything to hedge against a Steve Jobs death?

2/10/2011 10:55:28 PM

^ buy Google

2/11/2011 10:45:22 AM

Mr. Joshua sells March $26 calls on half of his TTM.
TTM jumps 11% to $26.70 the following day.

2/11/2011 2:20:46 PM

Quote :

"Looking at the stock, it's gotten whacked the past 3 earnings announcements and recovered all the way to the next announcement. I'd expect it to work the same way this quarter too. The only caveat is if the correction does come it will take everything with it, otherwise, Cisco isn't going anywhere."

Yeah, I successfully played the quarterly announcements twice in the past year. I don't expect it to continue doing this forever, but it seems especially sensitive to the slightest bit of bad news followed by a gradual return as the end of the quarter nears. Cisco is a company I'm willing to let ride for the long term if I need to though, so I'll probably pick up another 150-250 shares in the next few days.

[Edited on February 11, 2011 at 5:44 PM. Reason : l]

2/11/2011 5:42:28 PM

^^ I'll say it again, why don't you employ verticals? You get a better balance of profiting from the theta while still giving yourself the opportunity to partake on additional upside in the stock.

It's the same on the downside...rather than selling the puts outright and tying up a lot of margin, just buy a lower strike and you cap your maximum loss in the case you get really unlucky and you aren't locking up as much margin. The tradeoff is mildly reduced gains.

2/11/2011 7:03:26 PM

I was planning on buying to close a few days later and just pocketing a few cents per share. Ah well.

2/11/2011 7:16:03 PM

How much is your commission? That's one thing I struggle with a little, balancing position size versus the desire to not eat commission. Last year I think I paid $430 in comission, which I didn't mention in the last post is another mild con to doing verticals but I get the feeling a lot of people are just taking large relative position sizes, or in your case I get the feeling your positions are just large, relative or not (are you trading 7 figures?).

2/12/2011 11:23:49 AM

What do you guys think about buying oil related May '11 strike call options?

I was reading an article that stated the price of gas is the highest its ever been in the month of February. I can't imagine demand will let up for the summer. With the economy rebounding and business picking up, realistically, oil could spike to $120-$130/barrell from the current price. I'm sure you could find some volitile oil options and play them up. Most should be adjusted prior to the summer demand. I guess I don't see gas/oil decreasing between now and summer. Any suggestions on mid cap companies to play? UPL/SWN/CHK?

2/14/2011 12:23:58 AM

Think about what you said...oil is the highest it has ever been in February, and yet you don't think that will have a negative effect on demand? By all means, by those calls. Just let me sell them to you first.

2/14/2011 6:56:05 AM

so, last time around, the skyrocketing oil prices ultimately turned out to be market manipulation by the major investment banks rather than a true supply/demand issue, and once they had to sell gas prices dropped to under $2.

Interestingly enough, very shortly after this came to light there wasn't nearly as much public outrage as one would have expected -- almost as if people were so relieved that prices were down to $1.50 a gallon that they didn't care about the fact that the public was raped in the ass once again by the robber bankers.

So this time around what is it? Prices have been creeping up quickly for the last several months to a now all time high. I haven't paid that much attention to the commodities markets, and I'm wondering if they're again buying up all the oil and squeezing out the refineries...

2/14/2011 7:35:52 AM

^

yes they're buying it up again & as long as there's contango in futures over spot prices, they will continue to buy.

the difference this time is that they will be buying with less leverage than last time. in 2008 traders were putting down $1 and able to borrow the remaining $99 to put on a position worth $100. i don't know about how much that has changed, but it has changed.

2/14/2011 11:15:11 AM

fyi

http://www.eia.gov/neic/speeches/newell_12162010.pdf

2/14/2011 11:22:19 AM

Quote :

"How much is your commission? That's one thing I struggle with a little, balancing position size versus the desire to not eat commission. Last year I think I paid $430 in comission, which I didn't mention in the last post is another mild con to doing verticals but I get the feeling a lot of people are just taking large relative position sizes, or in your case I get the feeling your positions are just large, relative or not (are you trading 7 figures?)."

$4.99 commissions. I'll often open and close covered calls when I expect the stock to just oscillate for a period though I'd like to remain long on it. Yes, it does sometimes bite me in the ass, primarily when I don't think to check for upcoming earnings reports.

2/14/2011 2:21:15 PM

http://moconews.net/article/419-pandora-files-ipo-seeks-to-raise-100-million/
Pandora files for IPO.

2/14/2011 3:55:28 PM