Quote :

"and similarly, they'd be the dog who finally caught the car and isn't quite sure what to do with it. Sounds fun until you actually have the means to do it, and then you suddenly realize it's a highly problematic thing."

this is kind of an insane take

bodily autonomy has a much wider net than gun ownership

8/11/2024 11:11:32 PM

Wait, you set yourself up? I didn't know that was allowed.

8/12/2024 6:43:51 AM

lmao

8/12/2024 3:28:00 PM

It's a double poast

8/12/2024 7:27:17 PM

Quote :

"If I could show one thing directly to Kamala Harris it would be this: Among *Biden 2020* voters in Pennsylvania who now say they are voting third party/not voting/unsure, *57%* say they would move toward Harris if she calls an arms embargo on Israel and *ZERO* said less likely"

https://twitter.com/HBendaas/status/1823902317889921502

8/15/2024 10:14:53 AM

^ that's a hard thing to do at this current moment though, with Iran preparing an attack.

If Kamala could say she would do an embargo if iran stands down, then that would work, but i don't see how candidate kamala could take that stance, then iran attacks. Or taking that stance could hurt on-going negotiations.

8/15/2024 12:02:26 PM

Quote :

"Among *Biden 2020* voters in Pennsylvania who now say they are voting third party/not voting/unsure, *57%* say they would move toward Harris if she calls an arms embargo on Israel and *ZERO* said less likely""

A "poll" conducted by an explicitly pro-embargo organization in conjunction with YouGov, who found zero people supporting the opposite position

A very small slice of voters (Biden 2020 but currently third party/not voting/unsure)

A totally noncommittal response ("move toward Harris" means exactly dick)

So first we have to give these numbers the benefit of the doubt that they're real, then we have the promise that a little more than half of a small subset of voters might like Harris a teensy bit more.

We also have to assume that a position as radical as embargoing Israel won't drive away any Harris voters, or that an influx of pro-Israel cash won't otherwise offset whatever good vibes are predicted.

This tweet is among the dumbest things I have read on the subject of polls or Israel, two subjects in which there is a lot of very strong competition for "dumbest thing." We are all worse off for your having shared it.

8/15/2024 4:36:03 PM

^^^

This data doesn't mean anything until it compares the sizes of "Biden voters in 2020 and third party now" to "Biden voters in 2020 and dem nominee now".

Given scale, the 8% "less likely" of the latter could be bigger than the 57% of the former in raw votes. Plus, I'd argue that the former would be more likely to change their vote to the Dem nominee if nothing changes.

I would like to know more about how possible an arms embargo would even be with the current mix of influences within and on the US Government. The geopolitics of it.
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/05/16/israel-has-seen-arms-embargoes-before
This article is short but gives some crucial background, what do you guys think based off of this? On a practical note, I'd guess the US government wouldn't want to go beyond a threat as it wants Israel to stay more dependent on it rather than entertain leaving us behind, which an arms embargo would exacerbate. Or are they going down that route anyway and should be break it off early?

[Edited on August 15, 2024 at 4:42 PM. Reason : Had to adjust the "^s" cause I was writing and posting before GGOP sent his]

8/15/2024 4:42:11 PM

^^I think YouGov is a widely published polling organization? But I'm not an expert on polls.

The answer says more likely just the tweet uses move towards language, but fair enough it's not definitive

I guess the view of the "radical" position all depends if you think Israel is committing war crimes amd and even genocide, if so arms embargo is a pretty standard response?

[Edited on August 15, 2024 at 5:55 PM. Reason : I think "likely" is a standard term for policy questions ]

8/15/2024 5:37:55 PM

There was a lot of reporting two days ago that Kamala Harris would be visiting Raleigh for a rally tomorrow, but I haven't seen any details regarding her visit since.

I assume that the rally won't be happening, unless they're planning for a flash mob rally somewhere.

8/15/2024 6:09:46 PM

She won't be there, but they will make it look like 100,000 people were there with A.I. She has the smallest crowds in history.

8/15/2024 7:09:25 PM

Full of Epstein sympathizers too

8/15/2024 7:23:07 PM

^^^^I don't necessarily have a position on YouGov, but any poll that shows 0% on a question like that is immediately suspect. There is no position, no matter how outrageous, that gets you 0%.

"Radical" here in the sense of a radical departure from the norm. Neither U.S. policy nor either major political party has ever considered giving Israel a stern talking to, let alone imposing an embargo. Obama being slightly less full-throated in his support for Israel was a pretty significant departure from the norm. An embargo would be insanely radical.

(This isn't me being down on an embargo, by the way; I'm generally for cutting them off from our largesse, if perhaps not going so far as prohibiting trade. But it's ludicrous to suggest that embargoing Israel is a political slam dunk for Harris.)

8/15/2024 7:52:46 PM

Fair enough

8/15/2024 8:01:21 PM

Quote :

"There was a lot of reporting two days ago that Kamala Harris would be visiting Raleigh for a rally tomorrow, but I haven't seen any details regarding her visit since. I assume that the rally won't be happening, unless they're planning for a flash mob rally somewhere."

https://www.wral.com/story/kamala-harris-visit-expected-to-cause-traffic-delays-in-raleigh/21580382/

Supposedly speaking around 2:45... but yeah, no mention of where (mentions traffic around 540/Six Forks/Falls of the Neuse)

I've never had any desire to go to a political rally.

[Edited on August 16, 2024 at 2:27 PM. Reason : Wake Technical Community College's north Raleigh campus]

8/16/2024 2:21:33 PM

The teasers on her economic policy seem promising

She’s targeting new home construction for first time buyers as a flagship issue.

8/16/2024 2:33:51 PM

Jesus Christ, her economic proposals are terrible. To be expected of course since they’re populist messaging

8/16/2024 7:38:44 PM

Praying that Donald Trump doesn't win

8/16/2024 8:29:24 PM

I still don't really like her, but obviously given the circumstances she's being made to be the greatest candidate of all time or something. However, anything's better than a delusional foulmouthed criminal bent on vengeance.

[Edited on August 20, 2024 at 12:38 AM. Reason : 1]

8/20/2024 12:37:37 AM

She’s not Trump, that should be enough

8/20/2024 12:39:32 AM

Should in italics there

8/20/2024 12:44:53 AM

https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/C-6VgxHAvsK/?xmt=AQGz--lHSYK9Z6cYQCnGYVBSvbALdWQePToXoN1I-KaJsg

They know how to appeal to millennials

8/20/2024 8:34:32 PM

Quote :

" And keep her weird husband out of the media"

dude has risen to the occasion and was never weird

8/20/2024 10:40:27 PM

She was looking so fine last night

8/20/2024 11:35:13 PM

I haven't been watching the DNC until tonight because 4 fucking days of any kind political pep rally are way too much. That said, I'm not sure infectious joy/hope and top notch production quality at the convention are really going to be enough to have Kamala truly ascend and make it an early call on Election Day, let alone eek out a 270 EC win.

I am obviously voting for her, but I do wonder how she can ever shake the fact that so many people are absolutely pissed about the past 4 years. I don't see how those who aren't doing well in life can ignore the fact she's been the #2 person in power while fast food has become a luxury splurge for a good chunk of the middle class. These "border czar" commercials trashing her for a (mostly imaginary) border crisis really hammer the question I have in my mind: why would I want to vote for a fairly phony, stereotypical politician that propped up Biden like the guys from Weekend At Bernies? These are the folks I am worried about. They're the same type of "burn it down" people that voted to fuck HRC and the rest of us over

I have never been a fan of Biden, and while I know he got dealt the shittiest hand possible, I'm also college educated and doing a lot better than before either Trump or Biden took office. So many things have to go right for her to win (youth vote, black vote, Latino vote, suburban women vote, etc) that I really hope all this peace/joy/love enthusiasm isn't going to lead to an even more disappointing, swift kick to the nuts.

P!nk is a nice break from the ecstasy overload

[Edited on August 22, 2024 at 9:40 PM. Reason : sorry guyz, I'm all up in my feelings]

8/22/2024 9:38:16 PM

Quote :

"So many things have to go right for her to win (youth vote, black vote, Latino vote, suburban women vote, etc) that I really hope all this peace/joy/love enthusiasm isn't going to lead to an even more disappointing, swift kick to the nuts."

There are a lot of things that have to go right, but I think the votes you just listed are the easy ones. Not that Dems can't fumble them, but they'd have to seriously fuck up. My biggest concern is that the economy takes a dump, which will inevitably happen at some point but please for the love of God let it be after November. I'm also worried that the Israel war is going to get much worse, and still have suspicions that Netanyahu is actively coordinating with Trump to make that happen to boost his chances of winning. These are threats largely outside of the administration's control but for which they would doubtless take an outsize portion of blame.

That said, enthusiasm isn't sufficient but it is necessary to win, and at the moment, the Democrats have it and the Republicans really don't. Moreover, the Democrats benefit from having a sprint rather than a marathon. If she were starting from a place of low enthusiasm, that would be bad - less time to build it. But starting from a place of high enthusiasm, a short campaign means fewer opportunities to fuck up or get fucked up. Don't try to turn enthusiasm into a bad thing for a campaign.

8/26/2024 9:37:58 AM

Excluding external events like you mentioned (which are always a real possibility), the economy should generally benefit from an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. I understand that the stock market is not the economy, but mortgage rates have already started to drop.

I am sure it would be futile because they also want to be able to claim undue credit when times are good, but I would like a Presidential Candidate to say publicly and loudly that the President does NOT control the business cycle. It's very complicated. Of course, their actions can contribute to making things better or worse, but in general, one person (even a President) does not cause recessions nor booms. Let's stop pretending. Candidates are always saying that the American People are smart (they aren't), but if we're going to go with that, let's start by explaining there is no causation.

8/26/2024 11:02:37 AM

It's true that the (now likely) interest rate drop will probably have a positive impact, but I do wonder how quickly that will impact average voters. And there's an infinite variety of exogenous factors that could crash everything. Who in late 2019 was predicting what the economy would look like by April 2020? And there's a few ticking time bombs that worry me, including commercial real estate and the eventual mass realization that AI is mostly a fun party trick right now, unfortunately one that has created quite a large tech bubble.

As for the other...you'd need a combination of (1) shockingly honest politician with (2) a good economy and (3) such a massive advantage going into their election that they can afford to not take credit. And even then, who's going to listen? At the end of the day, the key people will vote for change when things are shitty for them and for the status quo when things are going well.

8/26/2024 11:33:18 AM

Have you seen the price of gas?!?

8/26/2024 11:39:39 AM

Yes. $2.699 at the last station I passed by.

Remember back when COVID was mismanaged and stopped almost all travel and gas was so cheap?! Those were the times! Thank you, President Trump!

8/26/2024 1:33:21 PM

Quote :

"These "border czar" commercials trashing her for a (mostly imaginary) border crisis "

I'm not saying that MAGAs aren't full of shit, but there is a major problem going on with the border and mass migration.

(and even if they weren't being hysterical about it, Trump is the fucking reason we abandoned a meaningful plan to take action on it! But...let's not pretend it's a "mostly imaginary" problem.)

Quote :

"why would I want to vote for a fairly phony, stereotypical politician that propped up Biden like the guys from Weekend At Bernies? "

Because she is way less shitty than Trump.

I used to say that on a scale of -10 to +10, you have to be at least a zero for me to vote for you...and I have not totally abandoned that sentiment--but MAGAs and particularly Trump are a special case. They are so noxious and destructive that I will happily vote for, as PJ O'Rourke put it, their opponents who are "wrong within normal parameters."

There isn't much reason to vote for her beyond that, but that's plenty of reason.

Quote :

"foulmouthed criminal bent on vengeance. "

...and those aren't even his worst qualities.

Quote :

"let's start by explaining there is no causation. "

I agree with your broader point. I wouldn't be so stark as to say there is "no causation."

Quote :

"And there's a few ticking time bombs that worry me, including commercial real estate and the eventual mass realization that AI is mostly a fun party trick right now, unfortunately one that has created quite a large tech bubble."

Agree on CRE; I'm avoiding anything touching that as best as I can.

Tech bubble...maybe. Kinda depends on where some trends (principally AI) lead. That said, tech has already softened some and the growth has started to broaden across other sectors. Buffett divesting a lot of AAPL being one example, but also in broader market trends.

AI being mostly a party trick? I disagree. I do a fair amount of angel investing in tech startups, and while your and my direct exposure is mostly a party trick at this stage, I don't think that's the case beyond that superficial level, especially extrapolated forward another few years.

Quote :

"Remember back when COVID was mismanaged and stopped almost all travel and gas was so cheap?!"

Yeah, drives me fucking crazy when these yokels trumpet pictures of $1.79 gas or whatever during the pandemic, and contrast it with $4.59 gas (which doesn't exist how outside of maybe a handful of places in CA or wherever.)

8/26/2024 7:37:50 PM

Quote :

"there is a major problem going on with the border and mass migration."

I would love to hear what, exactly, that problem is, how it is so major, and how it wouldn't better be fixed by making the immigration legal.

---

As far as AI, it's a topic for another thread. And I admit my personal contact with it is very surface level. I'm basing my analysis on the subtext (and sometimes outright statements) I get from listening to too much Bloomberg Radio in the car. But there are certainly some industry people who are grumbling that its immediate applications have been somewhat oversold, and "another few years" is a long time in a market that can fluctuate wildly from week to week based on modest, short term changes.

Ultimately it's neither here nor there. The point is that markets are always gonna crash eventually, and if people were good at predicting when they're gonna happen then they wouldn't really be crashes.

8/27/2024 9:01:48 AM

oh I'm pro-immigration, partly for our own benefit. I'm not advocating more draconian measures...and I also think that the root causes are also largely instability (and worse) in Central and to an extent South America, and that insular MAGA style isolationism will only aggravate that--I don't think you can police the border and be hardnosed enough on immigration policy to fix it--these people are desperate; the best fix is to be a world leader and help secure a tenable situation for them in their home countries.

I'm just saying that it's also not accurate to say "border schmorder, everything is fine." (even though it is less bad currently than it has been over the last few years.)

Quote :

"But there are certainly some industry people who are grumbling that its immediate applications have been somewhat oversold"

It may be near-term oversold. Tough to say how long until the bottom-line gains come, and how big they are...but there's a lot more going on than the ChatGPT silliness and AI-generated memes and such that most people see day-to-day.

8/29/2024 5:20:50 PM

Quote :

"I'm just saying that it's also not accurate to say "border schmorder, everything is fine.""

In the grand scheme of things, though, it kind of is.

All the things people like to pin on immigrants are trending in positive directions. Crime is down. Unemployment has remained low. To the extent that you do see problems, they're effects of criminalization/enforcement rather than immigration itself.

I understand that Democrats have to posture tough on the border, fine, but everyone should be hammering the narrative of "border crisis" every chance they get, because it just doesn't fucking exist. They find an immigrant who committed a crime, break out the stats showing that immigrants overall commit less crime than people born here. Hit them back with half a dozen instances of crime against immigrants. They show a "caravan," show the worst images you can find from the child separation policy. Show how immigration courts are wildly under-funded thanks to Republicans. Democrats shouldn't bring it up on their own, but if a Republican says one syllable about immigration, drown them with responses. They think it's their strongest issue and I'm sick of seeing it ignored at best and embraced at worst by the Dems.

8/30/2024 8:32:40 AM

I've been disappointed with Dem messaging on Trump deliberately torpedoing the legislation in Congress to clamp down on border enforcement/immigration. They reference it sometimes, but they ought to absolute blast him non-stop over that.

8/30/2024 8:49:07 AM

Oof, that interview.

8/30/2024 10:07:38 AM

that was the most normal interview ever

you freaks can’t handle normal/boring

8/30/2024 10:31:16 AM

Yeah, what’s wrong with the interview? I haven’t watch the whole thing, but seen a number of clips and thought those were fine. Haven’t seen any criticism of it on twitter either

8/30/2024 10:52:13 AM

It's jt3

8/30/2024 11:18:45 AM

Yeah, she didn't even bring up the late, great Hannibal Lecter! So boring.

8/30/2024 11:22:55 AM

Interview wasn't weird enough for jt3

8/30/2024 11:47:31 AM

Oof!

8/30/2024 11:51:45 AM

^^^^^^^^^ (ggop in immigration)

Democrats want more restrictionist immigration policy though, if they believed immigration is genuinely a strength they would be messaging like you’re saying. There’s a debate floating around with Regan and Bush, and they both are talking more progressively about immigration than Kamala is right now.

Maybe though it is just caution and we’ll see a different tone if she wins…

8/30/2024 12:59:26 PM

i saw some boomers on fb talking about how "it wasn't really live" and it just felt like they stopped short saying that it was "fake"

Trump is not out of this race at all.

8/30/2024 2:08:41 PM

I kinda agree with wsj editorial on the interview

8/30/2024 2:35:56 PM

^^quite obviously a clone

[Edited on August 30, 2024 at 3:11 PM. Reason : did you see the difference in "her" cheekbones and ears??]

8/30/2024 2:56:55 PM

So farcical what people are now apparently willing to believe. It's a joke!

8/30/2024 3:05:41 PM

Quote :

"There’s a debate floating around with Regan and Bush, and they both are talking more progressively about immigration than Kamala is right now."

Well duh, back then the GOP was largely the pro-immigration, pro-business, pro-internationalist party. The Dems were the populist party.

8/30/2024 4:21:41 PM

1) Re-expansion of the child tax credit - this is objectively good policy and good politics. I believe the momentary expansion during the pandemic was one of the most important policy changes to grow out of that nightmare.

2) $50k new business tax credit - I like this one too, as entrepreneurship is an important engine in the US economy that has stalled out the past decade due to a variety of reasons. I need to see what guardrails get put on this before I give it my full endorsement. Not hard to think you could open several shell companies and claim the credit on all of them. I support the general intent of this credit though.

3) Downpayment cash to new home buyers - I’m pretty skeptical here. It might be good politics but it could also have the effect of increasing housing prices. I would rather the country just build more inventory to lower overall prices.

[Edited on September 5, 2024 at 6:41 AM. Reason : 2 outta 3 ain’t bad *shrug*]

9/5/2024 6:40:13 AM

^ I'm chuckling at #3. Might drive housing prices up. Might. If only we had any examples within, say, the past 4 years, of whether artificially increasing demand by handing out free money has an effect on prices...

9/5/2024 8:17:58 PM