Pretty much as a rule, you want to stay away from pink sheets. Particularly ones trading for $0.125.

Quote :

"% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 7% % of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 1% % of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 1% Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 2"

This tells me they have very little promise.

12/12/2007 8:12:52 PM

Same question on a new page...

Is it a good idea to trade on the OTC stocks? (Pink Sheets)

I'm considering GTEM since it shows promise and it's pretty cheap...thoughts, anyone?

12/12/2007 9:03:05 PM

i like his answer ^^

12/12/2007 9:17:02 PM

Quote :

"What's so great about the crackberry vs the iphone/sidekick/any random smart phone"

crackberry seems to be the phone of choice for business folks. easy to use, especially with the rolly side button. and RIMM just announced they are entering China i'm sure other smart phones have nice features too. i also own a bit of NOK.

Quote :

"think the apple bubble will bust after xmas."

it could happen. it could also keep going. anything could happen. that's why you take profits when you can lock down that 20%. that, or you hold for the super long term. just know what you're intention/exit strategy is.

12/13/2007 11:09:24 AM

picked up some MA & SNCR

12/13/2007 6:59:02 PM

AAPL is going to go down because everyone is going down. Otherwise, they have a good pipeline of products coming out. Cash from iphone plans hasn't even made its impact, yet.

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 12:19 AM. Reason : in the long term.]

12/14/2007 12:17:31 AM

alright apple jumped the gun and came out w/ some great products. With so much profit being made its only a matter of time b4 competition gets real. Apple is gonna bust and i'm gonna laugh at idiots buying in at 195 when it slips to 155.


On the other hand I am backing up the truck for csco..............................

[Edited on December 14, 2007 at 1:10 AM. Reason : l]

12/14/2007 1:09:38 AM

bought some more MA and NDAQ

12/14/2007 3:50:28 PM

W

T

F

12/17/2007 3:07:05 PM

i think i'm gonna hold off buying. I think the lack of consumer confidence is going to allow me to buy in for cheaper at some point moving into 1st quarter

12/17/2007 6:07:55 PM

Markets took a huge dump today.

12/17/2007 7:13:05 PM

today may be an up day

12/18/2007 6:11:05 AM

it seems to be the beginning of the end of the credit crunch


...the following from marketwatch.com:

Quote :

"LONDON (MarketWatch) - The European Central Bank is offering unlimited funds to banks, taking the coordinated action announced by four central banks last week a step further in a bid to alleviate the global credit crunch. In a statement, the central bank said late Monday that it would satisfy all bids for two-week funding at or above 4.21%. The move appears to be aimed at satisfying any funding gaps as banks close their books for the year. By one measure, the new ECB plan already has succeeded where the coordinated action didn't - two-week lending rates in the euro area have dropped to 4.5% from 4.9%. That's the second time in the bank's nine-year history and since August that the ECB has offered unlimited funds. The move comes as the Federal Reserve on Monday held its first auction of $20 billion in funds under the new term auction facility. Results from the auction will be published Wednesday. The Bank of England is holding its first auction of 10 billion pounds ($20 billion) of three-month funds on Tuesday."

12/18/2007 6:45:04 AM

That's not the beginning of the end of the credit crunch, that's just liquidity to make it through year end financials.

12/18/2007 8:15:05 AM

i think there's a lot being done and its putting a floor on the whole crisis

12/18/2007 9:49:07 AM

charts looking painful again

12/18/2007 11:32:40 AM

buy buy buy

12/18/2007 12:38:51 PM

i agree

i just need more $

12/18/2007 1:27:21 PM

Quote :

"i think there's a lot being done and its putting a floor on the whole crisis"

I was wondering who was buying today

I doubt this is the end or even the beginning of the end. This is likely to get much worse in the new year when SIVs have to roll over medium term debt.

In the longer run there are at least two substantially negative events on our horizon.

1) The collapse of the UK real estate market. The same stress we have in the US is present in the UK and is perhaps in some senses worse. A far greater portion of the UK population live in Greater London which has seen the most amazing run ups than the portion of the US population that lives in the bubblicious West Coast, DC and Florida.

2) Walk Away Nation: The big big big fear in my mind is that persistent declines in housing prices over the next 18 months could cause Alt-A borrowers to walk away from their homes in a big way. We are thinking of relatively credit worthy borrowers who got 100% financing or option ARMs and will be deeply underwater for years to come. Walking away actually might be better for their finances in the long run than sticking it out.

The hope is that they will stay in their homes out of a sense of proprietary. However, let a few hundred thousand people walk away with no ill recourse and that could launch a tidal wave.

[Edited on December 18, 2007 at 2:57 PM. Reason : .]

12/18/2007 2:55:31 PM

fuck buying a house. seems like a big headache

12/18/2007 3:00:56 PM

only if you're trying to buy a house outside of your means.

12/18/2007 3:26:35 PM

ok baby, lets go this time

http://tinyurl.com/ytxb3y

12/19/2007 1:05:57 AM

I want to buy some energy but trying to decide who i like.

been looking at COP b.c they have major holding in Natural Gas, pay a good dividend, and are expanding oil drilling into the canadian tar sands

12/19/2007 10:47:58 AM

ANyone getting in on the Netsuite IPO today?

12/20/2007 9:17:44 AM

i made 20% when RIMM jumped from $99 to $120 today post-3rd quarter ER

12/21/2007 12:12:54 AM

the same day i got my crackberry edge...coincidence? I THINK NOT!

12/21/2007 1:21:25 AM

Netsuite up another 30%+ today ... after a great day yesterday.

Anyone have a scoop on this company?

12/21/2007 11:30:41 AM

i gave it a thought, but i just don't have the liquidity right now

12/21/2007 11:40:25 AM

poor circuit city stock

thinking about picking it up sub-5$ ... last time went from $5 to $30 in a few months

12/21/2007 11:57:27 AM

Looks like my AAPL is being called away at $190 in 30 minutes. It was a good run considering that I got in at $143.

The question is do I walk away or try to get back in after Christmas?

12/21/2007 3:34:46 PM

^^ Hows everyone else feel about Circuit City? I'm thinking about buying like 150 shares. If i'm reading things right they've already declared a dividend with the ex-dividend date on the 27th which is going to be a 3.31% yield. They can't turn around and undeclare a dividend can they? Plus, they have lots of assets, so its not like they're going to go belly up on me and they're a wonderful takeover target.

Also, does anyone have any input on Smith and Wesson (SWHC). The stock has been hammered because of back to back forecast reductions and a resulting class action lawsuit. But tons of analysts are putting out Buy and outperform ratings on it.

12/21/2007 3:51:26 PM

Quote :

"Also, does anyone have any input on Smith and Wesson (SWHC). The stock has been hammered because of back to back forecast reductions and a resulting class action lawsuit. But tons of analysts are putting out Buy and outperform ratings on it."

Sooo..... how is their actual business going?

12/21/2007 3:58:15 PM

its still growing, but i don't remember the percentages off hand

[Edited on December 21, 2007 at 4:01 PM. Reason : I'll try and look up some of the stuff I had been reading on it later and post it]

12/21/2007 3:59:33 PM

^^^ From what I find, their dividend is 4 cents a share.

$0.04 / $4.75 * 100 = 0.842%

0.842% * 4 = 3.37%

Are you willing to hold CC for a year to get 3.37%? Keep in mind that assumes the board continues to declare the dividend quarterly, which they do not have to do.

If you're looking for dividends, there are better places to put your money than a shitty company like Circuit City. For example:

	Price		Div/Share	Yield/Qtr	Yield/Year
C	$30.24		$2.16		7.14%		28.57%
PFE	$23.24		$1.28		5.51%		22.03%
VZ	$44.32		$1.72		3.88%		15.52%
MO	$77.43		$3.00		3.87%		15.50%
T	$41.48		$1.60		3.86%		15.43%
GM	$26.64		$1.00		3.75%		15.02%
DD	$45.35		$1.64		3.62%		14.47%
JPM	$44.11		$1.52		3.45%		13.78%
HD	$26.66		$0.90		3.38%		13.50%
GE	$37.14		$1.24		3.34%		13.35%
MRK	$59.15		$1.52		2.57%		10.28%
MCD	$60.03		$1.50		2.50%		10.00%
JNJ	$68.03		$1.66		2.44%		9.76%
MMM	$86.05		$1.92		2.23%		8.93%
KO	$63.07		$1.36		2.16%		8.63%
CAT	$72.73		$1.44		1.98%		7.92%
PG	$74.08		$1.40		1.89%		7.56%
AA	$36.35		$0.68		1.87%		7.48%
WMT	$48.21		$0.88		1.83%		7.30%
BA	$89.07		$1.60		1.80%		7.19%
INTC	$26.96		$0.45		1.67%		6.68%
HON	$60.71		$1.00		1.65%		6.59%
UTX	$77.83		$1.28		1.64%		6.58%
XOM	$93.43		$1.40		1.50%		5.99%
IBM	$111.05		$1.60		1.44%		5.76%
AXP	$51.95		$0.72		1.39%		5.54%
AIG	$58.33		$0.80		1.37%		5.49%
MSFT	$36.06		$0.44		1.22%		4.88%
DIS	$32.94		$0.35		1.06%		4.25%
HPQ	$52.03		$0.32		0.62%		2.46%

12/21/2007 6:25:55 PM

so i ponied up some $ for netsuite...

anyone see Fast Money from last night or Wednesday? Jon Najarian (who is rarely wrong), said we would see sharp upswings (albeit volatile) throughout January.

that's musac to mine ears

12/22/2007 2:20:29 AM

I take it that Jon Najarian is a billionaire?

12/22/2007 2:34:12 AM

^^^ nah, i wasn't looking for just a dividend. I was just throwing that out there on top of the fact that it plummeted today. But thanks for the break down. For some reason when I first posted I was thinking the dividend yield meant just for that quarter's dividend (realized I was wrong when i multiplied .04 times 150 ).

I went ahead and bought the stock though and will probably hold it for a good long while (i.e. longer than a year).

[Edited on December 22, 2007 at 4:38 AM. Reason : .]

12/22/2007 4:38:31 AM

portfolio is up 11.2 percent on the year...down from a high of ~21%

12/22/2007 5:43:33 AM

Quote :

"I take it that Jon Najarian is a billionaire?"

I don't know. You could look him up on the forbes list or something. In any case, I don't know if attempting to emulate billionaires is best for most of us given our time horizons and amount of capital we work wih

He is definitely one of the best options traders out there and is right most of the time. I've met him once in Chicago.

12/22/2007 3:13:19 PM

Quote :

"Hows everyone else feel about Circuit City? I'm thinking about buying like 150 shares. If i'm reading things right they've already declared a dividend with the ex-dividend date on the 27th which is going to be a 3.31% yield. They can't turn around and undeclare a dividend can they?"

You cannot undeclare a dividend. However, once declared (and typically even before that) dividends are baked into the stock price. That is, you can expect the stock to fall after the ex-dividend date by the amount of the dividend.

Quote :

" Price Div/Share Yield/Qtr Yield/Year C $30.24 $2.16 7.14% 28.57% . . . "

I think you double (quadruple) counted the dividends here. For example Citi pays 54 cents per quarter for a 2.16 dividends per year.

12/24/2007 10:03:32 AM

Crap, you're right. I had quarterly dividends on the brain

The correct version is:

	Price 		Div/Share/Yr 	Yield/Qtr 	Yield/Year	
C	$30.80 		$2.16 		1.75%		7.01%
PFE	$23.27 		$1.28 		1.37%		5.50%
MO	$77.59 		$3.00 		0.97%		3.87%
T	$41.48 		$1.60 		0.96%		3.86%
VZ	$44.77 		$1.72 		0.96%		3.84%
GM	$26.41 		$1.00 		0.95%		3.79%
DD	$45.20 		$1.64 		0.91%		3.63%
JPM	$44.68 		$1.52 		0.85%		3.40%
HD	$26.93 		$0.90 		0.84%		3.34%
GE	$37.62 		$1.24 		0.82%		3.30%
MRK	$59.70 		$1.52 		0.64%		2.55%
MCD	$60.31 		$1.50 		0.62%		2.49%
JNJ	$67.86 		$1.66 		0.61%		2.45%
MMM	$86.29 		$1.92 		0.56%		2.23%
KO	$63.09 		$1.36 		0.54%		2.16%
CAT	$72.22 		$1.44 		0.50%		1.99%
PG	$74.07 		$1.40 		0.47%		1.89%
AA	$36.90 		$0.68 		0.46%		1.84%
WMT	$48.85 		$0.88 		0.45%		1.80%
BA	$90.00 		$1.60 		0.44%		1.78%
INTC	$27.20 		$0.45 		0.41%		1.65%
HON	$61.49 		$1.00 		0.41%		1.63%
UTX	$78.74 		$1.28 		0.41%		1.63%
XOM	$93.90 		$1.40 		0.37%		1.49%
IBM	$111.60 	$1.60 		0.36%		1.43%
AXP	$52.93 		$0.72 		0.34%		1.36%
AIG	$59.41 		$0.80 		0.34%		1.35%
MSFT	$36.67 		$0.44 		0.30%		1.20%
DIS	$33.39 		$0.35 		0.26%		1.05%
HPQ	$52.08 		$0.32 		0.15%		0.61%

12/24/2007 11:57:12 AM

you are actually completly wrong. I too think I am as smart as Alan Greenspan when it comes to the WolfWeb blog....haha

Circuit City is a MUCH better risk/reward ratio than those stocks you listed, especially at the beat down price. This company isnt going anywhere. It has the possibility to be bought out which would surge the price, and when it does turn around, it'll be a simple triple

You listed citigroup on top, you couldn't get me to invest in that stock even with a 28% dividend 7% dividend....it hits a new 52week low every week!

Just stop giving advice.....I can't believe you'd even recommend stocks on the damn yield anyway....great buy a stock that'll earn you $1/share while it looses half its value...

12/25/2007 12:36:56 AM

I can't beleive you recommended CC in its current state. I'll laugh when you buy it and it goes bankrupt and worth 0.

On a serious note you are very right that it could come back. However, with its current state you will be "losing" money in investing with CC b.c the stock price will likely stay in equilibrium at its current price until some news or earning report or financial statement indicating better conditions internally. The lost money is essentially other investments that would could make that will have greater returns while you are waiting for CC to get its shit straightened out.

Circuit City is current not a BUY.

This same principle holds true for some of the financials. No citigroup or BoA are not going anywhere and will likely to recover form the mortgage crisis. Even though they are very low priced right now and will probably go up in the future they are not currently a buy b.c better investments could be made elsewhere.

12/25/2007 1:07:12 AM

i would put my money in C before CC

12/25/2007 2:45:29 AM

^^^ I listed those companies as examples--I'm sure, in your infinite wisdom, you recognize them simply as the Dow 30. My point was that there are many other companies which pay dividends and are a much better risk than Circuit City, particularly if you plan on holding them for the long term.

Quote :

"at the beat down price."

Circuit City is not a beaten down stock; i.e., it's not an otherwise company healthy and hale company that just happens to have a low price because it fell out of fashion with the market. Circuit City stock is down because management is completely failing to execute, something they as much as admitted to during their last 'earnings' call. Circuit City is a company with serious troubles, and they're bleeding market share.

Citigroup, as HUR pointed out, has mortgage problems along with all financials. Anyone with half a brain can see that mortgage problems are probably a lot closer to being over than Circuit City's failing business is to turning around.

Again, I stress the list was an example and not specific recommendations. Regardless, are you seriously suggesting that CC is a better buy than the largest financial company in the world?

12/25/2007 8:16:49 AM

Quote :

"No citigroup or BoA are not going anywhere and will likely to recover form the mortgage crisis."

I wouldn't be absolutely sure that Citi will survive this. At least not in a meaningul way. There is almost no chance that there will be a firesale and complete layoffs as Citi closes its doors but it could be forced in a debt (liability) equity swap or merger on unpleasant terms that sends existing shareholder value essentially to zero.

12/26/2007 3:20:05 PM

^ What's your take on Citi spinning/selling off some of it's business units to get out from under this mess?

I'd think they're way too big for the feds to allow a merger or outright takeover (except private equity, but who's got that kind of capital?)

[Edited on December 27, 2007 at 7:20 AM. Reason : dfg]

12/27/2007 7:18:55 AM

I theory thats not a bad approach. The problem I see is this: we know that Citi will take more write downs on direct holdings of CDOs. I don't think anyone on the outside knows for sure whats going to happen when all of Citis SIV rolls back on to the books. On top of that there are looming losses in Credit Card where Citi is heavily exposed as well as non-Agency prime mortgages and HELOCs. This is not even counting what kind of shit storm comes to fruition in CMBS.

I am not sure if a sale of peripherals can raise enough extra capital to support those losses at the core bank and you lose profitable elements. I think someone has to want the Citi core bank, the brand, the goodwill, etc.

I think the real hope for Citi comes in two parts.

1) Cut the dividend. 50% cut in the dividend is worth about 5 billion, but I think you may need a larger cut because Citi should

2) Seek a significant new offering placed with private equity or a sovereign wealth fund. Not just a little 7.5 billion deal but something on the order $20B+

Suppose Citi cut the dividend to a $.25 per quarter and issued 1B new shares at $20 a piece. A potential investor is still looking at a 5% a yield and Citi has $20B immediately and a $4B a year savings.

Is that enough? I don't know. But I think you can offer the selling point that "Citi is being conservative and guarding against the worst case scenario." I think that the worst case scenario is more than Citi can bear but I may be in the minority on that one.


As a side note some people will undoubtly say that Citi has a 5% cushion in SIV losses and all of its CMBS are super-senior. To that I can only say look at Adams Square which went from AAA to nothing and tell me there is no risk in supersenior CMBS.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/12/cdo-liquidates-for-less-than-25-of-par.html

[Edited on December 27, 2007 at 1:20 PM. Reason : AAA to doughnut]

12/27/2007 1:12:26 PM

^and how much of that risk/loss is already priced into the stock, your opinion?

12/27/2007 3:14:18 PM

why even spend any more attention span on it?

find other stuff that's working

12/27/2007 3:40:35 PM