Quote :

"Jesus Christ, it's a teaching example, not a god damned stock or fund tip"

true, but that scenario doesn't come close to playing out if you base it on normal returns. But to be fair, I find Ramsey to be disingenuous in the first place, so im a bit biased against his stuff to begin with.

6/5/2015 2:33:22 PM

Quote :

"yeah i like fitbit as a product, but they play in a space that has no moat. it would be trivial for an AAPL or some other company to eat their lunch. honestly, their only competitive advantage they have is a better web/app experience and an entrenched networked userbase. if not for that, i'd probably choose a different fitness tracker. "

This is exactly why I will be investing in them. I live in this space, and Fitbit has a VERY big moat because their business isn't tied to a specific hardware ecosystem. Any business that has a vested ecosystem to attach their shit to is doomed to mass market failure. The Apple watch is a mass market flop already, as is the entire android wear ecosystem.

6/5/2015 11:03:56 PM

Quote :

"Jesus Christ, it's a teaching example, not a god damned stock or fund tip. I wish I had started saving earlier, I think just about everybody who has any kind of financial goals wishes they had put more of the money they earned in high school into AAPL instead of buying gas for our 1994 Honda Accord and boone's farm wine. I mean, that memory of fingerbanging my buddy's sister at the sonic drivethru is cool and all, but I'd rather have an extra half a million when I retire."

At your age you could conceivably catch up - especially if you use realistic percentages

6/6/2015 3:08:28 PM

Oh, no worry, I'm well on my way to retirement around age 50. Again, I could probably be retired way sooner had I not pissed away so much money in my very early 20s, but that's probably the story for most people. I've been a pretty extreme saver/investor for the last decade or so.

6/8/2015 9:42:41 AM

I had the cash when I was younger, just not the knowledge

6/8/2015 9:19:57 PM

Quote :

"Fitbit has a VERY big moat because their business isn't tied to a specific hardware ecosystem."

how is Fitbit NOT tied to a specific hardware ecosystem? Other than a small amount of revenue from paid subscriptions through an acquisition, nearly all of their revenue come from hardware sales.

I think its a bit premature to call smartwatches a flop at this point.

I see the relationship between fitbit and smart watches to be analogous to flip cameras and smart phones 6 years ago. Eventually the cameras and storage in smartphones made Flip cameras obsolete. Similarly, i think it's a matter of time before Smartwatches go from being a gimmicky gadget to offering real value, and making other gadgets, such as activity trackers redundant.

Incremental evolution, and specifically improved instrumentation/telemetry on smart watches + the myFitnessPal app (which dwarfs the fitbit userbase by 4x) would pretty much kill fitbit as a growth company. The number of IoT consumer products will increase rapidly and Fitbit has so far been far too slow to expand their product base to ride this wave, despite being one of the pioneers in the space.

6/9/2015 1:47:14 PM

^ Sorry, I meant in terms of iOS (Apple Watch) / Android (Android Wear). Fitbit's hardware and software work with virtually any device, portable or otherwise.

Bah, I typed out a long reply. I couldn't disagree more with your assessment. Fitbit has the technology, people, and platform to grow and adapt as the market rapidly changes. myFitnessPal has ONE hardware partner, it's Fitbit. Yes other companies could catch up, but Fitbit is in a great position to hit the gas pedal and stay ahead.

Smartwatches are a niche product space, and will continue to be for the next 3-5 years at minumum. They aren't the ubiquitous wearable product. There are too many fundamental problems beyond just sensors and battery life.

6/10/2015 7:28:03 PM

^I have to say I'm with BobbyDigital on this one.

Quote :

"Any business that has a vested ecosystem to attach their shit to is doomed to mass market failure."

Apple's business model is a largely that of a vested ecosystem, so are you suggesting that they in general are doomed for failure? While I'm not suggesting they'll always be the major hitter in the room, I am suggesting that the statement above is hyperbole, at best.

Quote :

"Fitbit has a VERY big moat because their business isn't tied to a specific hardware ecosystem."

I don't see why this gives Fitbit a big moat in the mobile space. Mobile users, especially apple ones, are typically brand loyal for devices, so a hardware ecosystem isn't always seen as a weakness; it is sometimes a strength.

"Apple now has a device that tracks my fitness AND better integrates with my iPhone in other areas" is a plus not a minus as evinced by those with iphones who also have ipads, macs, watches, etc. With this in mind, Fitbit's platform agnostic approach does no good. Why does agnosticism matter when an iOS user is likely to continue with iOS products?

My issue with Fitbit in general is it is simply not a defensible space. They may be the number one name right now, but it's an easily copied model and can be done with even more native integration by the vendors of the mobile devices with which Fitbits connect.

One last question, by which measure are you considering the Apple Watch as a mass market flop? I see more people with them in my office than I did the original iPhone when it released. Also given the updates mentioned during WWDC, it looks like we're getting decent improvements with the same hardware.

6/11/2015 12:07:04 PM

fitbit on thursday - i'm going to jump if it doesn't pop too high

6/16/2015 1:25:17 PM

Tidbit from the newswire re. Fitbit IPO:

Quote :

"Fitbit's market debut tomorrow is the top for the company, says Global Equities Research in downbeat missive which focuses on the competition the fitness-band maker faces. The sector "can be categorized into 'exclusive' and 'commodity' segments," with Apple(AAPL) owning the former and Fitbit in the "brutally competitive" latter. There, it not only faces the likes of Garmin(GRMN) , Microsoft(MSFT) and Sony(SNE) but Chinese firm Xiaomi and its $15 offering. That versus the $99-250 that Fitbit retails for, prices Global Equities contends are "going to collapse." As " secular growth trends are missing, fundamental investors should avoid Fitbit stock.""

6/17/2015 2:05:16 PM

FIT approaching $28 pre-market

6/18/2015 9:33:09 AM

popped over my $30 limit - waiting to see now

6/18/2015 10:15:45 AM

^Me too.

6/18/2015 3:19:29 PM

06/22/2015 YOU SOLD FITBIT INC CL A (Cash) $3,707.99 Processing
06/18/2015 YOU BOUGHT FITBIT INC CL A (Cash) -$3,047.95

6/22/2015 11:09:11 AM

i watched from the sidelines on FIT

6/22/2015 11:44:11 AM

honestly surprised by the market's reaction to FIT. I thought it would spike the first day and then settle back down in the mid $20s for a few weeks.

6/22/2015 12:06:31 PM

Likewise. I probably would have sold a day earlier, but got sidetracked by work. Really surprised it popped like that day three.

6/25/2015 2:02:38 PM

I can't believe that the VIX isn't way higher, with the Greece thing and uncertainty over Fed interest-rates/timing.

6/26/2015 7:54:59 AM

anyone use http://www.fridayoptiontrader.com?

7/1/2015 10:54:23 AM

^^ China was off 20%...

7/2/2015 12:35:44 PM

I'm looking forward to the imprending Grexit giving me an opportunityt to buy a few things well below their normal market price.

Thanks you lazy ouza drinking gyro merchants!

7/3/2015 7:33:43 AM

Between Greece and China, I can't figure out why the markets aren't lower. Doesn't seem to me that it's priced in.

7/7/2015 2:10:04 PM

Picked up some AMD at 2.04 this morning seemed like a safe enough play near 2.

7/7/2015 2:24:24 PM

Hmmm...should I buy Blackstone? (BX)

7/7/2015 11:50:40 PM

whats your logic to buy BX?

Bought NBG/REXX/DNR/XOM/GMCR over last 2 weeks

7/8/2015 10:15:25 AM

I think the Chinese version of financial crisis is coming.
I still have some stock left in mainland China. But I haven't touched it for 15 years.
Keep away from that market. That's the best strategy I guess.

7/8/2015 10:24:08 AM

I'm mad gambling on the dip. Reloaded some more.

7/8/2015 4:05:56 PM

I think people are still holding out hope that there won't be a Grexit. I'm guessing we'll see a few more -100-200 point days in the next 2 weeks until there is a resolution in Europe and we get some clarity in China.

Also, picked up some totally unsexy GE and PG today.

Earnings season will probably be the bigger factor though, hopefully we don't see a too many misses

7/8/2015 4:15:00 PM

Billions of dollars evaporated in Chinese market in the pass several weeks.

7/8/2015 4:19:18 PM

Picked up some EEM on this dip gambling stuff gets resolved and I can make a decent trade out of it.

7/9/2015 8:17:51 AM

Added a bit more AAPL yesterday @ 123 and jumped into ARIA @ 7.60. Took a modest position in AMDA @ $0.46 based on possible FDA approval of it's joint replacement tech next month.

7/9/2015 11:57:32 AM

Haha should have waited on AAPL. Oh well.

7/9/2015 2:32:21 PM

What are your feelings on gold? Think it gets back to the $1500/oz mark by the end of the year or is the dollar just too strong for that to happen?

7/15/2015 1:19:05 AM

What's going on with Google? seems like a strange run-up...

7/17/2015 8:40:38 PM

I'm really pissed at myself for not buying some GOOG or GOOGL last week. I was really considering buying some before earnings were reported, then figured I would just wait and see how they did. Nope, not gonna touch it for a bit now. Let's see how many people just take some profit here and hope it runs down a bit.

I mean, I know they beat estimates and they have announced some cost control measures, but seeing it pop 20% in a day is nuts.

7/18/2015 2:35:55 AM

I had a sell order at 600 that I didn't set an expiration on, from months ago, and it screwed me. So sad right now

Still made some money though.

7/20/2015 1:22:34 PM

I know it's a volatile penny stock but any thoughts on this?

http://thatsir.com/us-company-takes-first-steps-towards-mining-asteroids-in-space/

Trading at $.01 right now. Has some good backers.

7/22/2015 10:20:18 AM

Interesting. Though not public, I thought Planetary Resources was way ahead on asteroid mining though?

7/22/2015 10:31:37 AM

I got it confused with PRRY - Planet Resource Recovery - not the same. I was wondering why it would be at $.01 because PR is definitely the leader in space mining right now.

7/22/2015 11:50:21 AM

Fuck yeah Amazon.

7/23/2015 7:08:04 PM

any thoughts on https://www.robinhood.com/ ?

8/13/2015 11:06:42 AM

i've been using it for a few months - it wasn't that great at the beginning because you could literally only buy and sell - no limit orders or anything - they've since added all of the standard features

my only complaint is they don't load new IPO symbols early enough for me to place a limit order sometimes

8/13/2015 1:24:06 PM

I've had it but not used it since it was only for iPhone. However, now that it's on android I may start using it to see how the functionality is.

8/13/2015 8:10:23 PM

FT editorial on interest rates:

Quote :

"How will the Fed react to contrasting domestic and international developments? | Aug 14 08:10 | 1 comment | Share By Mohamed El-Erian Data out of China, Europe and the United States highlight contrasting influences on Fed officials as they prepare for their September policy meeting. Domestic indicators are consistent with a September hike but international indicators are not. That tug of war makes this Fed much harder to predict than its predecessors. From America’s solid retail sales data to a four-week initial joblessness level that has now fallen to lows not seen for over 40 years, the Federal Reserve has an ever stronger domestic case to implement, perhaps as early as September, its first interest rate increase in over 9 years. In doing so, it would embark on a very shallow path for subsequent rate hikes, with a terminal policy rate that is below historic averages. The international case for a September rate hike is much less convincing, confronting US central bankers with a stark contrast. The Chinese economy continues to slow while Europe has yet to establish a sufficiently-solid footing for expansion. With tricky challenges facing several large emerging economies (including Brazil, Russia and Turkey), from a world growth perspective, America is the only big economy possessing a brighter economic future in the immediate period ahead — and even here, growth would continue to fall frustratingly short of “escape velocity.” If the tightening of monetary policy is premature, an excessively strong dollar could amplify the impact of weak foreign demand for US exports. It could also add to global financial fragility, an issue of concern to many countries around the world. In the past, domestic considerations tended to repeatedly dominate international ones at the Fed for two reasons. First, the US economy was relatively “closed” to foreign trade. Second, the mindsets of Fed officials were inclined to minimise international issues, if consider them at all. (Notable exceptions included the Fed’s response to the Asian Financial Crisis and Russian default in 1997-8.) The current Fed, however, has been evolving when it comes to the mix of domestic and international developments. Judging from its recent statements and minutes, the most powerful central bank in the world is paying more attention to international issues, including the impact on the dollar and the implications for financial conditions. It has repeatedly cited developments abroad when looking at risks for the US economy and, a few months ago when the dollar was even stronger, officials were worried about the impact of a potential currency overshoot. The composition of the FOMC has also shifted, bringing in more internationally-oriented governors. Stanley Fischer had a long career at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as serving as governor of the Bank of Israel. Lael Brainard was the Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs before joining the central bank. It’s not as easy to predict how the Federal Reserve will respond to such a contrasting set of domestic and international issues. As such, a September rate hike is far from a done deal — especially if the “data-dependency” is no longer restricted just to domestic variables. My gut says that the Fed is still likely to move in September in what would likely prove to be the “loosest tightening” in the central bank’s history, but my head acknowledges that, with the recent set of international data, the probability distribution has become more finely balanced. "

8/14/2015 8:20:34 AM

Seems like an on-going trend is toward gentrification within the interior of many cities including old rust-belt cities. Growth is accelerating in Charlotte and Portland, previous and current cities I live.

What would be some good ways to invest in all this growth. Are there any REITS that play on this investment and/or good companies that make lots of $ through selling of building materials or things needed for the on-going gentrification.

8/18/2015 9:11:02 PM

Why don't you buy a building and become a slumlord?

8/18/2015 11:08:32 PM

Just buy REITs

8/18/2015 11:35:20 PM

Quote :

"hy don't you buy a building and become a slumlord"

More interested in the buildings owned by the more "desirable" crowds duh!

8/19/2015 1:56:12 AM

You could have bought a row house in bed stuy for 250k in 2005 and unloaded it for 1.5 million this year.

You could buy stock in SL Green. But that's boring.

8/19/2015 7:10:21 AM

Quote :

" Are there any REITS"

FSRVX, VGSLX or similar

8/19/2015 7:00:47 PM