It's simple. Just look at how many neckbeards out there are unwilling to wear a mask because #freedomfromfear

You think they're going to responsibly social distance on their own? Because people are idiots, places will have to stay closed.

5/18/2020 12:29:37 PM

Quote :

"You’re also relying on the country’s ability to maintain an R=1.2 instead of Sliding down the infection slope to 2 (extremely easy to do as I understand.)"

If social distancing breaks down, then the lockdown won't matter. No point closing the factory down if all the workers spend their now free time socializing at an illegal underground club.

More to the point, there is no alternative. People are rebelling against the lockdown. They can't arrest everyone. And by asking for too much, we waste people's good will. By asking too much, they're more likely to reject all of it. People ranting and raving that the lockdown is ruining their life are more likely to respond with anger when someone reminds them to keep their distance.

5/18/2020 12:30:40 PM

Quote :

"No point closing the factory down if all the workers spend their now free time socializing at an illegal underground club."

You make some pretty illogical assumptions and leaps. Factories are about a fertile environment for outbreaks that there is. And sure, plenty of the workers may engage in other risky behaviors, but many will not as be as risky as working in a factory, and many will probably actively mitigate their chances to catch and spread the virus if they're not going into the factories.

5/18/2020 12:35:45 PM

Quote :

" More to the point, there is no alternative. People are rebelling against the lockdown. They can't arrest everyone. And by asking for too much, we waste people's good will. By asking too much, they're more likely to reject all of it. People ranting and raving that the lockdown is ruining their life are more likely to respond with anger when someone reminds them to keep their distance."

What could possibly go wrong from letting the dumbest among us dictate our pandemic policy.

5/18/2020 12:41:40 PM

The areas of the country actually dealing with the virus are not protesting. If any of these areas with protests start seeing an increase in cases the protests will end pretty fast as people retreat into their basements.

5/18/2020 12:47:52 PM

the main factor affecting case numbers is testing. The funny thing about this narrative is that you can't open up until you have reached a certain testing capacity which guarantees testing will go up when you reopen. Thus cases will go up after you reopen. Too bad no one understands the difference between correlation and causation.

Low and behold the % of tests with positive results is going steadily down while case numbers are going up and guess which one the media is reporting?

5/18/2020 1:35:33 PM

Earl is smarter than everyone.

I learned about positive infection rates from him and not literally every COVID tracker anywhere, ever.

It’s utterly bizarre he thinks he’s the only one on earth who doesn’t just blindly regurgitate Chris Cilizza.

[Edited on May 18, 2020 at 3:07 PM. Reason : X]

5/18/2020 3:07:10 PM

While our number of dead from COVID-19 is awfully high, it is still a lot lower than Italy's ratio. They have 32k dead from a population of 60 million. To compare that to our population, that would be almost 200k dead.

5/18/2020 3:33:48 PM

^^^

You have no idea what you're talking about. It's unreal.






[Edited on May 18, 2020 at 3:35 PM. Reason : moving fast]

5/18/2020 3:34:19 PM

I think its you who has no idea what I'm talking about considering you just used one of the only states my post didn't apply to in attempt to refute my statement.

My statement was clearly about testing and cases going up after reopening so its baffling that you would use NY. Not just because they haven't opened up but also because they are unique in being the epicenter of the outbreak.

I never insinuated "everyone" does these things. Theres clearly a subset of the population that acknowledges no one really has all the answers then theres people who think they know things that are impossible to know.

My entire argument is that we shouldn't pretend to know everything.

5/18/2020 3:59:15 PM

fascinating argument.

5/18/2020 4:03:03 PM

^^you did a terrible job of communicating all those caveats in this short paragraph

Quote :

"the main factor affecting case numbers is testing. The funny thing about this narrative is that you can't open up until you have reached a certain testing capacity which guarantees testing will go up when you reopen. Thus cases will go up after you reopen. Too bad no one understands the difference between correlation and causation."

5/18/2020 4:31:39 PM

its like trying to hold on to a fish you just pulled out of the water.

5/18/2020 4:40:45 PM

The paragraph you quoted is me essentially saying "the more tests you give, the more positive results you will get" which should come off as a really obvious observation and not me pretending to know everything about the virus.

The problem is people think "cases" means "people who have contracted the virus" and then when I say "cases" they think I'm using it in the way they think of it.

Yeah I did a terrible job of communicating it because I can't know ahead of time how much background knowledge you have or what misconceptions you have. You not knowing what I'm talking about is not evidence that I don't know what I'm talking about.

5/18/2020 5:36:00 PM

lol

5/18/2020 5:45:44 PM

To be fair, "I communicated poorly bc I consider you all to be idiots" is prob the most concise and honest description of his post history possible

5/18/2020 8:29:36 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk2YZfnsOPg
Hu. Well then. I had noticed this. The infection is doing rather poorer in areas that are showing low antibody results (10%) than it should be as restrictions continue to be lifted. Again, especially in children, which are continuing to test positive for antibodies at surprisingly low rates, especially compared to adults.

There are multiple systems of virus fighting, it seems one explanation is that the innate immune system or the Mucosal Immune systems are capable of generating immunity without the adaptive antibody response that we're testing for. In this way, it seems plausible to suggest that some regions have in fact achieved enough partial herd immunity (40% or so) to keep infections from growing exponentially as restrictions are lifted.

Such systems seem to work better in the summer too, so it seems warmer moist weather might be shifting the virus to be less likely to need the production of antibodies to achieve immunity. This also introduces a problem, because these non-B-cell antibody responses tend to be shorter lived, meaning if it is the case that most patients that caught the virus this time around do not get sick enough to develop the long term antibodies, this would help explain a second peak when the winter season arrives.

[Edited on May 19, 2020 at 11:11 AM. Reason : ,.,]

5/19/2020 11:06:15 AM

Here's what a 6 week hospital stay can do for you. This guy was 43 and in good health:



[Edited on May 20, 2020 at 8:45 AM. Reason : Can't link to twitter images?]

5/20/2020 8:44:44 AM

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/husband-of-reopen-nc-leader-willing-to-kill-people-in-resistance-to-emergency-orders/

5/24/2020 2:01:51 PM

who is he even talking about specifically

5/24/2020 6:29:55 PM

Angry, paranoid middle aged white male plays contrarian. More at eleven.

5/24/2020 9:48:18 PM

The full Adam Smith threat video:
https://www.facebook.com/usamericangreen/videos/10223027648502294

5/24/2020 10:17:09 PM

We’re basically doing the same thing as Sweden in America but our leaders are pretending they’re not

5/24/2020 10:34:46 PM

Disagree

5/25/2020 9:27:07 AM

even if that was true youre forgetting the average american is an obnoxious asshole. that would be true even if our president wasnt the ultimate [obnoxious asshole].

this is the #1 reason we have 100k deaths.

5/25/2020 11:41:48 AM

Greatly increased police presence downtown and around the Governors Mansion for the protest today.

GG Adam Smith

5/25/2020 3:44:41 PM

there was nobody protesting when I drove through about an hour ago

5/25/2020 4:27:01 PM

Does anyone here live in Charlotte? You guys willing to suffer an outbreak of coronavirus so trump can have a full room of people praising him?

5/25/2020 6:22:18 PM

Questioning white people on the street with guns and masks and it’s tyranny.

Black people out for a run or getting skittles get shot and they shouldn’t have been outside or shouldn’t have worn a fucking hoody in the cold.

5/26/2020 8:32:41 AM

I think two weeks from now will be a good test. If we don't see a sharp uptick in positive cases and hospitalizations, then perhaps we can step further closer to normal.

There is an article on CNN detailing how numbers are rising in states that have opened up, but what I would like to know however, is that rise in numbers directly related to a rise in testing? Because all that tells me is that they're testing more.

I'm honestly caught in between "OMG I'm going to die" and "come on guys, it isn't really all that bad." I want to go out and peruse Lowes and Target, but I don't. I'm not the type that feels like I'm missing something by not going to restaurants, and I certainly don't feel like my liberties are being trampled on. I'm just tired of the shit. I want things to go back to normal. I want my son back in daycare so I don't have to make sure he eats a phone charger. I want my daughter back in school because she nearly refuses to try and learn in the home.


[Edited on May 26, 2020 at 9:09 AM. Reason : jhvk]

5/26/2020 8:52:02 AM

^
It’s easy for me to maintain perspective by looking at the numbers. 100k people are dead now, it could have been 0 if we all collectively acted a little differently starting as late as the end of February. This is very sobering to me.

Even though half of that 100k was geriatric and probably going to die on the next 1-5 years anyway, that still is very sobering to me. When you consider that data on people seriously ill, or having lifelong complications, isn’t really published, I don’t get how people can look at this information, knowing the disease spreads asymptotically, and think they’re special. I can only conclude that they just don’t care about death of themselves or people close to them or their fellow countrymen.

5/26/2020 10:12:45 AM

Quote :

"I can only conclude that they just don’t care about death of themselves or people close to them or their fellow countrymen."

I don't think that's the case for a lot of them. Like many humans, they just have the mentality that it only happens to other people, it would never happen to them or someone they know. And until it does, their mind can't be changed. (and yes, they're selfish people)

[Edited on May 26, 2020 at 10:26 AM. Reason : ]

5/26/2020 10:22:52 AM

This article is a great back-and-forth on locking down vs not locking down.

https://spectator.us/lockdown-wrong-matt-labash-toby-young-debate/

5/26/2020 3:16:02 PM

The entire lockdown convo is pointless bc no one has the same definition of "lockdown".

Paris recently eased their "lockdown". Their post "lock down" situation is the same as NYC's current "lockdown".

Its a pointless conversation.

5/26/2020 4:47:13 PM

^ i think any business that can accommodate masks and social distancing should be able to open and operate under those conditions. Is that pro or anti lockdown?

5/26/2020 7:16:30 PM

^Thats antilockdown.

The lockdown says only essential businesses ( mostly costco target waltmart and CVS) should be able to open with precautions. Opening a small retails shop that usually sees one person at a time would be more safe than any of those but the lockdwon says fuck that. The lockdown is not based on science. You won't find any science that says shopping at walmart is safer than shopping at main street retail. The lockdowns are all so different because they are all based on the government in that place choosing winners and losers based on their definition of "essential".

5/26/2020 9:16:54 PM

Quote :

"Paris recently eased their "lockdown". Their post "lock down" situation is the same as NYC's current "lockdown". Its a pointless conversation"

Yes obvi each individual municipality's "lock down" could look different than another's based on the local status/data regarding infections. And it evolves based on that data.

Quote :

"bc no one has the same definition of "lockdown"."

Yes ofc they shouldn't

5/26/2020 10:08:05 PM

Walmart is a grocery store. It doesn't get much more essential than that.

Lowes? I guess the case could be made for Lowes and Home Depot but I feel this one is mostly BS. If they were deemed essential, then they should have been made to shut down their plant and garden centers. That shit brought people out in droves early spring. Suburban landscaping is not essential. Your mulch can wait.

5/26/2020 10:51:44 PM

^^ of course areas should function in a way specific to their situation. The issue is everyone is using the same word and then arguing over it

5/26/2020 11:24:47 PM

^,^^ meh

5/27/2020 11:17:45 AM

Sigh. Walmart is not (just) a fucking grocery store. Yeah they operate some grocery stores but I'm talking about the regular walmart or walmart supercenter. It has a grocery store in it but also has everything else retail. No one made them shut down their clothing, cosmetics, electronics, toys, home appliances, or any departments that are in direct competition with all the small retail businesses that have less risk and forced to shut down. I can't believe people don't see what is happening.

[Edited on May 27, 2020 at 1:23 PM. Reason : how many grocery only walmarts are there?]

[Edited on May 27, 2020 at 1:25 PM. Reason : 3600 supercenters and 800 neighborhood markets (grocery only)]

5/27/2020 1:20:58 PM

I'm definitely concerned that we'll see a lot of smaller businesses replaced with chains for many reasons including ^. I'm surprised more haven't closed at this point, but when back-rent and loans are due it's going to get ugly.

5/27/2020 1:30:19 PM

5/27/2020 1:44:28 PM

bro get with the times

5/27/2020 1:45:45 PM

apparently KFC's days are numbered

5/27/2020 1:52:30 PM

Quote :

"Sigh. Walmart is not (just) a fucking grocery store. Yeah they operate some grocery stores but I'm talking about the regular walmart or walmart supercenter. It has a grocery store in it but also has everything else retail. No one made them shut down their clothing, cosmetics, electronics, toys, home appliances, or any departments that are in direct competition with all the small retail businesses that have less risk and forced to shut down. I can't believe people don't see what is happening."

Doesn't matter. Look, I've long bitched and moaned about Walmart having groceries. I wish they never would have gotten into the grocery business to start with. But they did. I'm so glad we still have a nice selection of local grocery stores around here (Carlie C's, etc) and I refuse to get my groceries from Walmart, but because they have groceries, they can be open. I find it hard to wall off certain sections of Walmart. What, are you going to rope off the dry goods and beverage section off to itself, then go over to where they keep the cleaning supplies, then rope that off, then go over to the pharmacy, rope that off, etc? If they had everything HT had in one location, I could see that working. But their "grocery" section is spread all over the store.

Look I agree with you. I just don't see it being implemented in a practical manner.

5/27/2020 1:53:27 PM

Quote :

"but because they have groceries, they can be open"

and pharmacy.

looks like your idea is shared by a handful of municipalities: https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-walmart-target-stop-selling-non-essential-items-select-states-2020-4

all this stuff is municipality controlled not implemented at the federal level. gee i wonder why!

5/27/2020 2:02:23 PM

Quote :

"Doesn't matter. Look, I've long bitched and moaned about Walmart having groceries. I wish they never would have gotten into the grocery business to start with. But they did. I'm so glad we still have a nice selection of local grocery stores around here (Carlie C's, etc) and I refuse to get my groceries from Walmart, but because they have groceries, they can be open. I find it hard to wall off certain sections of Walmart. What, are you going to rope off the dry goods and beverage section off to itself, then go over to where they keep the cleaning supplies, then rope that off, then go over to the pharmacy, rope that off, etc? If they had everything HT had in one location, I could see that working. But their "grocery" section is spread all over the store. Look I agree with you. I just don't see it being implemented in a practical manner."

I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying that if people are going to be shopping in walmart then there is no reason to make every other retail store close. If you can't enforce it on walmart then don't enforce it on anyone.

These politicians are acting like Walmart has a special immunity from the virus just because they also sell groceries. The crowds in walmart are something that many of the businesses forced to close woulnd't see on their busiest day. Consolidating all retail shopping to one place is not a logical way to fight the spread of the virus.

Stop calling these selective shutdowns "social distancing measures".

5/27/2020 2:28:24 PM

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but could it also be related to square footage? Walmart has a much wider berth for you to sneeze out your germs than the cupcake business on downtown main street.

I get your point. Why close Kohl's, and not Walmart. Why close main street and not Walmart. I don't know the answer, but I just generally chalk it up to lobbyists. Same reason landscaping was considered essential. In the wintertime, when they need to salt parking lots and sidewalks? Maybe. But again. Your mulch isn't essential. Again, I chalk it up to lobbyists.

Hell the local gun store, Fuquay Gun and Gold, stayed open throughout all this. At the height of the closure they were only letting one person in at a time, presumably to buy some very badass flamethrowers, but still, one customer at a time is still open.

5/27/2020 3:38:05 PM

With regard to using the same phrase and then arguing over it, when we aim to flatten the curve, are we referring to a linear or logarithmic curve?

5/27/2020 4:34:18 PM