Quote :

"Removing vaccine requirements for the military seems very well thought out"

This is the dumbest goddamn shit. Imagine if the flu hit a sub or other naval vessel where troops are in extremely close proximity to each other.

Also, why the focus on the flu vaccine, why not anthax, smallpox, or malaria...the ones that do have far more significant (but still low) chances of side effects.

4/21/2026 1:30:32 PM

Also didn’t they ban medical waivers for shaving? So you can’t have a beard but you can infect a ship full of people with the flu

4/21/2026 1:42:23 PM

^ because the flu one is largely pointless for military aged people. Has no real advantage for someone 18 to 49. 20% of the time may stop transmission to olds. Risk in that group is like 0.7 per 100,000. Jacking off on a rocking boat has to be higher mortality than that. Not to mention over half the 0.7 is BMI over 40 which are not in the military.

What if Iran attacks with anthrax like Saddam?! You can never be too safe.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 1:46 PM. Reason : A]

4/21/2026 1:44:37 PM

^^^its to continue to call into question vaccines in the general public’s mindset

4/21/2026 1:49:29 PM

it’s clearly working on some people who are excited to trip over themselves to downplay the benefits of vaccines

while also swearing they aren’t an anti-vaxxer

4/21/2026 1:50:44 PM

How is that working out for all those measles patients?

4/21/2026 1:53:03 PM

I do not eat lamb. That makes me an anti-meat vegan.

4/21/2026 1:54:32 PM

Quote :

"because the flu one is largely pointless for military aged people. Has no real advantage for someone 18 to 49. 20% of the time may stop transmission to olds. "

Absolutely not when you consider military populations in extremely close proximity and high stress environments. It's why they shoot you up with shit at Basic.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2725976/

Quote :

"Virtually all US military basic trainees receive seasonal influenza vaccine. Surveillance data collected from December 2005 through March 2006 were evaluated to estimate effectiveness of the influenza vaccine at 6 US military basic training centers. Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 92% (95% confidence interval 85%–96%)."

4/21/2026 1:54:48 PM

There is a massive difference between "military aged people" and "military members" in terms of lifestyles and exposure.

4/21/2026 1:56:00 PM

^^

Quote :

" 92% is a ceiling number from an ideal population in a favorable season. Typical VE is 40-60%. Bad-match years drop to 10-30%. But “mismatch” very rarely means zero protection."

It's apparently typically better than I thought. Only 20% when there is major drift of the circulating strains. Which happened in 2014. They also put more than one strain which bumps the low 20% to more like 50% effective. 2005 was a best case scenario year where there was a total match across all the strains.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 2:03 PM. Reason : A]

4/21/2026 2:02:53 PM

Curious how confidently you went from

Quote :

" because the flu one is largely pointless for military aged people. Has no real advantage for someone 18 to 49"

to now saying "Well, 2005 was just a lucky year"

C'mon man. The flu vaccine is at best extremely beneficial to military population and at worse, still pretty helpful.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 2:09 PM. Reason : z]

4/21/2026 2:08:53 PM

You don’t want entire groups of people with fevers and diarrhea either. Death isn’t the only complication. Flu infections also are the highest predictor of later cardiovascular disease. Do we want increased veterans benefits costs? Do we want increase heart attacks and just poor fitness ?

They re sacrificing the readiness of the American military to endear a subset of soldiers to MagaIsm

4/21/2026 2:16:35 PM

The immediate jump to severe outcomes and death show the same myopia as the Secretary

Skip over the most basic "sick people are less effective at defending our country"

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 2:17 PM. Reason : ^jinx]

4/21/2026 2:16:46 PM

^^^ I'm just saying it's not that effective most of the time. I thought it was 20% effective and occasionally got up to 90%. It seems like it's more bell shapes and it's 50% most of the time and 20% occasionally and 90% occasionally.

Hospitalization is 50.7 per 100,000 for adults 18–49. Fatality rate something like 0.7 in 100,000. Those are numbers for people not in shape at all (ie people here posting on TWW). Those numbers aren't even that bad. With 2,000,000 service members:


1000 go to the hospital with flu
14 die

So in an average year. 500 people go to the hospital and 7 die even if they are vaccinated. It's likely way less than that since the people in the military are more in shape. Also, those that are more at risk could choose to get the vaccine even if not mandated.

The choice isn't no flu at all. It's slightly less flu if you vaccinate everyone.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 2:23 PM. Reason : a]

4/21/2026 2:18:11 PM

So then what is your argument for not mandating it among military populations?

4/21/2026 2:22:08 PM

Quote :

"Those numbers aren't even that bad. With 2,000,000 service members:"

So a simple vaccination program will help ensure at least 300,000 service members have increased effectiveness. Seems like a pretty good ROI



Also you so casually dismiss 14 service deaths..

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 2:23 PM. Reason : E]

4/21/2026 2:22:23 PM

^

Quote :

"Also, those that are more at risk could choose to get the vaccine even if not mandated."

And it's not 14, it's probably 7 in people that are more fit.

Quote :

"So then what is your argument for not mandating it among military populations?"

Military people are less fat than gen pop and the flu vax is less effective than a standard vax. Pearl clutching that somehow it's going to render the military unable to launch cruise missiles seems unlikely. And if it did great! Maybe some more school children can continue to live another day.

4/21/2026 2:29:44 PM

Again, you seem to consistently ignore that while servicemembers are usually more in shape, they tend to be in tightly confined spaces and more stressful environments than the standard US citizen.

At this point, just say you're antivax and move on instead of sealioning.

Christ, why is it that all the all the weird AI fanboys on this site don't actually use the damn thing to check on their own assumptions

4/21/2026 2:32:00 PM

^ I've purchased at least 40 vaccines in the last 4 years. How many have you gotten? Are you antivax?

I'm not ignoring it, at best you bump the numbers up a bit because of what you describe. Is it 2x as bad? It's your argument, why don't you convince me.

4/21/2026 2:47:01 PM

Your argument boils down to "It can't stop the flu all the time, so no mandate is better". You've never been in a military environment, you have no idea what the expectations are of a servicemember, or how much having several members sick at one time can affect things...yet you seem to talk like an expert.

Quote :

"because the flu one is largely pointless for military aged people"

Quote :

"Has no real advantage for someone 18 to 49. 20% of the time may stop transmission to olds. Risk in that group is like 0.7 per 100,000. Jacking off on a rocking boat has to be higher mortality than that. Not to mention over half the 0.7 is BMI over 40 which are not in the military."

Quote :

" It's likely way less than that since the people in the military are more in shape."

Quote :

"The choice isn't no flu at all. It's slightly less flu if you vaccinate everyone."

Quote :

"Pearl clutching that somehow it's going to render the military unable to launch cruise missiles seems unlikely."

It's just all bullshit out of you.

4/21/2026 2:58:53 PM

Here is AI's argument since you asked:

VE = vaccine effectiveness

Quote :

"Cases without vaccine (2M population): Low season (5%): 100,000 Typical (8%): 160,000 Bad season (12%): 240,000 With 50% VE (typical real-world): Low: ~50,000 still sick Typical: ~80,000 still sick Bad: ~120,000 still sick With 90% VE (your best case): Low: ~10,000 still sick Typical: ~16,000 still sick Bad: ~24,000 still sick Translating to duty-day loss (typical season, 5 days/case): Unvaccinated baseline: ~800,000 duty days lost 50% VE: ~400,000 duty days lost 90% VE: ~80,000 duty days lost Caveat on the 90% figure: real-world VE essentially never hits 90%. CDC's annual VE estimates across the last ~15 seasons have ranged roughly 19%–60%, with ~40–50% being a typical "good match" year and ~20% in poor-match years (like 2014–15 when the H3N2 strain drifted). So your "best case 90%" is more like a theoretical ceiling than an observed outcome — a realistic best case is closer to 60%, which would leave ~64,000 sick in a typical season rather than 16,000. The readiness argument for flu vaccination in military populations has historically been less about mortality (very low in this demographic) and more about preventing the "whole platoon down for a week" scenario — that's where even a mediocre 40–50% VE pays for itself in aggregate duty days preserved. "

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 3:02 PM. Reason : a]

4/21/2026 3:01:04 PM

And your prompt was?

Quote :

"Unvaccinated baseline: ~800,000 duty days lost 50% VE: ~400,000 duty days lost"

a 50% reduction in loss of duty days isn't enough for you to want a mandate???? Fucking lol

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 3:03 PM. Reason : a]

4/21/2026 3:02:18 PM

Quote :

"This is the key distinction. If 8% of a 2M force gets flu over a season, that's 160,000 cumulative cases spread across ~12 weeks of flu season. Peak weekly incidence in a typical season is maybe 1–2% of the susceptible population sick at the same time. With ~5 days of duty impairment per case, peak simultaneous "down" rate in a general population is roughly 1–3% — not 50%. So for 2M troops in a typical season, peak simultaneous impairment is maybe 20,000–60,000, not 160,000. Where your intuition is right: Unit-level clustering doesn't follow population-average math. A barracks, ship, or deployed unit is a tightly-mixed sub-population where local R is much higher than 1.3 — think measles-outbreak-in-a-daycare dynamics, not seasonal-flu-in-a-city. Historical examples: 2009 H1N1 on USS Dwight D. Eisenhower: ~25% of crew infected in weeks Basic training outbreaks regularly hit 20–40% of a company before interventions kick in The 1918 flu hit military camps vastly harder than surrounding civilian populations So the "whole platoon down" scenario is real, but it's a local outbreak phenomenon in high-density units, not a force-wide simultaneous event. Those are two different operational problems: Force-wide readiness math: small % impact, spread across the season, real but manageable Unit-level outbreak risk: concentrated, can take a specific ship/company/barracks offline for 2–3 weeks, much bigger operational problem What this means for the vaccine argument: The readiness case for flu vaccination in the military isn't really "prevent 160,000 simultaneous casualties." It's closer to: Reduce the probability that any given high-density unit gets hit by a localized outbreak during a critical window (pre-deployment, exercise, operational tempo) Compress the tail — you can tolerate 5% of troops sick across a season; you cannot tolerate 30% of a destroyer crew sick during a Red Sea transit Your R0 intuition correctly deflates the aggregate headline number but undersells the clustering problem, which is where the actual operational risk concentrates. The military's historical vaccination enthusiasm traces to that clustering problem — DoD got burned repeatedly by training-camp and shipboard outbreaks, and the policy followed from those specific experiences rather than from population-level burden math."

Here is the old policy:
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/DD/issuances/dodi/620502p.pdf

Here is the memo:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HGbwrS7WcAASo9W?format=jpg&name=large

It has a carve out for those at risk populations.

Quote :

"The services can submit requests for exceptions to the new policy over the next 15 days to Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness Anthony Tata Task & Purpose. So the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Space Force, and Coast Guard each have a 15-day window to argue "we need to keep it mandatory for [X population]." On your close-quarters question — this is where it gets interesting: The memo itself does not carve out close-quarters populations. It's a blanket move to voluntary across the board. BUT the 15-day service exception window is exactly the mechanism that could produce close-quarters carve-outs — if, for instance, the Navy argues that shipboard environments or submarine crews warrant retention of the mandate, or the Army argues for basic training units. Whether any service actually submits such a request, and whether Tata approves it, is the open question over the next two weeks."

So the navy or army can end up mandating it for those at risk places. As usual the reporting on it is fake and gay.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 3:20 PM. Reason : a]

4/21/2026 3:16:05 PM

Quote :

"Needles once required — now the R-naught does the math barracks hold their breath"

So I have changed my position from "jacked military trannies do not need to get vaccinated because they are all more masculine than you fatties" to "seems reasonable to mandate it in the boot camp, Navy and marines".

Which is still possible if those agencies request it.

Speaking of trannies. The tranny coffeeshop I frequent is closed on Mondays. I had to go to another one and there were mennonites there. No shit. I probably got contact measles. Thats what I get for going somewhere without rainbow flags.

[Edited on April 21, 2026 at 3:22 PM. Reason : a]

4/21/2026 3:20:11 PM

Boy, it's a good thing Trump and Kegsbreath fired so many of the generals and admirals they disagreed with.

4/21/2026 3:22:05 PM

^ think positively! There is plenty of other shit to rage about. Like Barron Trump being worth $120 million in a year.

4/21/2026 3:23:30 PM

I'm upset about plenty, but choosing today to be outraged over a decision that will ultimately hurt the military and continues us down the path of antiscience while catering to antivaxxers.

4/21/2026 3:27:01 PM

The memo just moves the policy from global to local.

Remember to check if the Navy and Marines do continue to mandate it in 15 days. They are just keeping the anti vax narrative when the only thing that's happened is there is less
Covid vax and pushing the Hep B out a year. Everything else like adopting the Denmarks schedule, has gotten pushback.

4/21/2026 3:39:44 PM

Quote :

"Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness Anthony Tata Task & Purpose."

one of the biggest turds of all of the turds

4/21/2026 3:51:06 PM

Quote :

"The memo just moves the policy from global to local. Remember to check if the Navy and Marines do continue to mandate it in 15 days. They are just keeping the anti vax narrative when the only thing that's happened is there is less"

Brother, I am begging you to stop talking about military matters like you're familiar with them.

The memo gives commands 15 days to request an exception, but gives no timetable on when or if they'd be approved.

4/21/2026 4:10:34 PM

Quote :

"because the flu one is largely pointless for military aged people. Has no real advantage for someone 18 to 49."

Not so fast...there are significant exceptions. For example, the 1918 flu hit that age group hardest, and for an easy to understand reason, too:

That age group typically has the strongest immune system, and the deaths were caused by immune system overreactions.

4/21/2026 4:29:00 PM

So much incompetence

https://www.newsweek.com/typos-fbi-director-kash-patel-19-page-lawsuit-11856767

Quote :

"A defamation lawsuit filed this week by FBI Director Kash Patel against The Atlantic contains multiple spelling and copy-editing errors, including misspelled words and formatting inconsistencies in passages sharply criticizing the magazine’s journalistic standards."

4/22/2026 11:21:23 AM

LOL!

4/22/2026 12:19:40 PM

my wife has been reading every word of every proposed rule for federal employees that these fuckers are trying to pass, and has found so many typos, clear instances of cutting and pasting without footnotes, and the use of AI prompts that give the wrong info

it’s like a burnout high schooler doing everything they can at the last second to finish a paper

[Edited on April 22, 2026 at 12:52 PM. Reason : .]

4/22/2026 12:52:18 PM

Is she documenting her findings anyway, or just ranting to you?

4/22/2026 10:10:50 PM