He'll just be at that seemingly bad age for tailbacks....the dreaded 3-0.

usually that's about when they start to go downhill.....even when alexander was healthy last year he was barely, if even a top 10 back imo.

[Edited on August 16, 2007 at 4:21 PM. Reason : 6]

8/16/2007 4:21:48 PM

^didnt he still have a couple ~200 yard games?

nm

201 vs. green bay and 140 vs. san diego

[Edited on August 16, 2007 at 4:25 PM. Reason : ,]

8/16/2007 4:24:27 PM

Quote :

"But even before getting hurt, Alexander was off to a slow start, rushing for 187 yards his first three games. He picked up his play a bit upon his return, breaking the 100-yard mark twice while scoring five touchdowns his last five games. His 3.6 yards per carry in 2006 were a career low, though."

^i think those were his only 100+ games of the year tho. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll do OK, but the consistency isn't there anymore imo.

8/16/2007 4:29:25 PM

barring Injury I do think that Alexander will have a very productive year.. Definitely top 10 RB. It was their first year without Steve Hutchinson and they were moving guys around at that LG position all season. Seems they have found a guy now who started the last 3-4 games last season and will go into this year as the starter which should solidify the line. Also Hasselback and Deion Branch should be more comfortable with each other after spending the offseason together meaning the defense cant stuff the box.

8/16/2007 4:29:52 PM

i just think both LJ and Shaun are good enough (when healthy) to run well even with an average offensive line...who knows though...I just hope I get to pick 1st! my 2 leagues havent established draft order yet

8/16/2007 4:33:39 PM

Back to the "When to pick what position?" debate, I've made a graph of point averages last year ranked by position: (nerd alert!)



Obviously, there is a huge quality dropoff at RB. At least 8 of them should go first. Then game theory gets interesting. At what point is it better to take an elite QB/WR than a top-20 RB? It's certainly very tricky considering how the top 30+ are in demand for RB/WR but only the top 10-12 matter for QB/TE/DEF.

8/16/2007 4:37:08 PM

wow, nice job on the graph....

are those specific to your league settings though?

Quote :

"Obviously, there is a huge quality dropoff at RB. At least 8 of them should go first."

and

Quote :

"While I never would draft him any higher than 8-10 in the first round (and thats only if LT, SJ, LJ, SA, Addai, Gore, Westbrook, and Parker were off the board), He really makes an interesting pick, especially when you can come back and get a solid (but not superstar) RB only a few, if not one, pick later. In a 10 man league, its a tougher decision, but in a 12 man league, Manning will far produce anyone that you could pick at the and of the first round. Just my opinion though."

I think we are on the same page!


[Edited on August 16, 2007 at 4:41 PM. Reason : asdf]

8/16/2007 4:39:11 PM

LJ is more of an injury risk than either Alexander or Gore IMO. Runningbacks don't survive 416 carries, that's why LJ wants his money now. He knows he is going to decline severely or get hurt.

[Edited on August 16, 2007 at 5:04 PM. Reason : ;]

8/16/2007 5:03:53 PM

I need to make a decision on a few guys


James Farrior
(Pit - DL)
Aaron Kampman
(GB - DL)
Shawne Merriman
(SD - DL)

CIN DEF
PHI DEF

I need to keep 3, which would you drop and why

I am leaning towards Farrior, Merriman and PHI DEF just because I know PHI is the better defense and Merriman is a monster (if he can stay out of trouble) and I think Farrior will have a better year than Kampman

the reason i need to is because I have to add Michael Turner as a RB with both Dunn and Morency in trouble of starting on their teams, I need to have a back that will get some decent playing time and I know Turner will get a few carries a game

[Edited on August 16, 2007 at 7:47 PM. Reason : /]

8/16/2007 7:44:20 PM

you have to keep merriman

8/16/2007 9:22:17 PM

I agree but what about the others

8/17/2007 9:16:06 AM

How many DL can you play?

8/17/2007 10:00:45 AM

i would drop philly's defense. Cincinnati's will be "good enough," for alot of reasons... mainly that they've got a good offense that forces other teams to air it out, making interceptions a big possibility for the D. during Cincy's bye week, just pick up a random team to play that week.

I would keep Kampman and Merriman... Kampman is one of the premier DL's in the league, while Farrior might still have some spark, he's injury prone and is on a pittsburg defense that isn't what it used to be. He's not awful by any means, but I think Kampman and Merriman have the upsides (provided merriman stays clean), while Farrior is more likely to have a bad year.

you're lucky though, because it's win win.

8/17/2007 10:04:44 AM

i can play 2 DL and one DEF

[Edited on August 17, 2007 at 10:06 AM. Reason : .]

8/17/2007 10:05:39 AM

While I agree with AxlBonBach about Kampman and Merriman being your choices as keepers, I do disagree that that you should keep Cinn over Phi, despite my recommendation to pick them up earlier in this thread.

Philly's defense is a blitzing/turnover creating machine. Unlike Cincy, Phi's defense creates turnovers regardless of the score or situation. They were one of the league leaders in fumbles forced last year.

Despite my opinion, you cannot argue with the facts, and the facts here show that Cincy has a ridiculously tough schedule this year, while the Eagles play teams like the Giants, the Lions, the Redskins and the Packers. Teams that LOVE to turn the ball over, unlike the Bengals, who play ball control teams like Baltimore, Pitt, NE, STL, etc. There are some good matchups in their schedule, but as a whole, I wouldnt advise using Cincy's Defense as a week to week starter. They are much more of a plug and play or situational defense.

IMO, Philly's Defense gives you the best chance to get points on a consistent basis. Keep the Eagles Defense.

- The Guru

[Edited on August 17, 2007 at 10:18 AM. Reason : asdf]

8/17/2007 10:17:54 AM

thoughts on Ronnie Brown and Edge this year?

8/17/2007 10:52:27 AM

I decided to just drop Farrier and add Michael Turner

Brown has a lot of stepping up to do this year but keep in mind that ALL of the O-line has been replaced for Miami

it will be a huge gamble to see how well he does with no chemistry on the O-line

not to mention last night, Miami's run game looked kinda crappy



[Edited on August 17, 2007 at 10:57 AM. Reason : i would bench him until he proves otherwise]

8/17/2007 10:55:27 AM

One of the key factors that I think is overlooked in all of this draft strategy is the individual scoring methods for each league. Even small differences in the number of players at each position started and the value of their scores based on their stats can make a huge difference in terms of where to pick.

I've seen leagues where the scoring averaged about 120 per game, but you would see defenses and quarterbacks put up 50 points on a regular basis. That's an extreme example, of course, but I think people need to be careful not to formulate a generic draft strategy.

8/17/2007 11:20:50 AM

you are absolute right!

That's why, whenever someone asks a question to me on here, the first thing I always answer with is "What is your scoring system?"

Rankings can do a complete 180 depending on the scoring system that is specific to your league.

gg FuhCtious, I hope everyone on here realizes that the advice given is basically a generalization and could easily sway with the way your league is set up. If you ever have any questions, PLEASE state some specifics about your league setup.

8/17/2007 11:56:08 AM

Has anyone tried this website? Does it work and is it useful?

http://www.screamingsports.com/default.aspx

8/17/2007 1:23:56 PM

Quote :

"are those specific to your league settings though?"

ESPN standard.

Yeah, the scoring's important. Like, if QB's get 50 yards/point and 4 points/td, I don't really care who I get.

8/17/2007 3:16:25 PM

Pretty sure most intelligent people already are already interpreting the information on this thread given what they know about their league settings.

8/18/2007 4:29:57 AM

ahman green, cedric benson, or adrian peterson?

who do you draft?

8/18/2007 4:53:05 AM

Benson.

The unquestioned starter on a run first team with a great Defense.

He will have more opp's to produce than both of your other two choices. Regardless of how good peterson is, he is a rookie on a one-dimensional team that will be splitting carries with the incumbant starter, Chester Taylor.

Don't even get me started on the Texans situation.

GO WITH CEDRIC BENSON.

8/18/2007 10:25:28 AM

yeah Benson no doubt

8/18/2007 2:28:06 PM

Hey VOLCOM, did you see how nasty the Eagles D was last night?

Pick-6's, forced fumbles, sacks, etc.

I hope you listed to me and held on to them.

8/18/2007 2:39:14 PM

oh you know this and i was very impressed lastnight and VERY GLAD i kept them

gg

Quote :

"I am leaning towards Farrior, Merriman and PHI DEF just because I know PHI is the better defense and Merriman is a monster (if he can stay out of trouble) and I think Farrior will have a better year than Kampman"

[Edited on August 18, 2007 at 2:48 PM. Reason : i had the right idea, i just needed a little confirmation]

8/18/2007 2:44:02 PM

in round 5 of my draft right now...


so far my team is:

Steven Jackson
Edgerrin James
Drew Brees
TJ Housh
Javon Walker

Do you think it's time to pull the trigger on TE, or go with backup RB? (RB's are going fast, CedBen and MJD just got picked... only TE's gone so far are Tony Gonz and Antonio Gates)

8/18/2007 4:21:45 PM

I personally would go RB in case Edge has another bad year or someone gets hurt.

8/18/2007 4:24:47 PM

i agree... the only options right now are Marion Barber, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, and Cadillac...

what to do, what to do...

[Edited on August 18, 2007 at 4:37 PM. Reason : ,]

8/18/2007 4:36:55 PM

out of all those, Cadillac is the best player IMO just don't know how good Tampa will be so I probably would have taken a chance on him.. how did you end up doing?

8/18/2007 5:32:55 PM

Jamal or Cadillac


Cadillac prob has the potential to do more tho

[Edited on August 18, 2007 at 5:51 PM. Reason : if Jamal stays healthy he could be one of the FEW weapons that CLE has]

[Edited on August 18, 2007 at 5:51 PM. Reason : kind of a toss up either way]

8/18/2007 5:49:34 PM

true but I think I trust Jeff Garcia more-so than Charlie Frye/Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn combined

8/18/2007 6:02:13 PM

i went with jamal... considering he's backing up Steven Jackson and Edgerrin James, I won't use him but on the bye weeks, and it was worth the gamble to me. Cadillac is still available this late, so i may pick him up too just in case.

8/18/2007 7:53:25 PM

so i got the #3 pick, what should i do with it?

8/19/2007 1:54:04 PM

ok i took larry

8/19/2007 2:01:51 PM

my team is gonna be shitty, i've got larry, bush, and chad johnson so far

8/19/2007 2:08:17 PM

That's not shitty.

8/19/2007 2:56:56 PM

Team is finalized: Let me know what you think!

Brees
Houshmanzadeh
Javon Walker
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
Vernon Davis

Robbie Gould

Chargers D

Troy Polamalu
Chris Hope
Lofa Tatupu
Mike Peterson
Aaron Kampman

Bench:
Bernard Berrian
Ben Watson
Brett Favre
Greg Jennings
Jamal Lewis

Asante Samuel
Dwight Freeney
Andra Davis

8/19/2007 4:39:07 PM

looks like a good draft for you

8/19/2007 5:48:43 PM

doh

[Edited on August 19, 2007 at 6:10 PM. Reason : .]

8/19/2007 6:07:03 PM

here's mine:

leinart
chad johnson
colston
larry johnson
reggie bush
gates
warrick dunn

vincent jackson
jay cutler
stallworth
dominic rhodes
joe horn


elam

baltimore
san fran


my 3rd and 4th backs are pretty crappy i know. any suggestions or thoughts?

8/19/2007 6:09:30 PM

12 team league just finished drafting (note i did not pick a K on purpose)

1. Rudi Johnson RB
2. Torry Holt WR
3. Cedric Benson RB
4. Antonio Gates TE
5. Calvin Johnson WR
6. Reggie Brown WR
7. Ahman Green RB
8. Tony Romo QB
9. Greg Jennings WR
10. Brandon Jackson RB
11. Jacksonville DEF
12. Jerry Porter WR
13. LaMont Jordan RB
14. Brett Favre QB
15. Lorenzo Booker RB

8/19/2007 8:53:51 PM

Okay I am in my keeper draft right now...I am still on rnd 1. Who should I pick in the third a QB, WR or another RB?

I just drafted rnd 1- 7th (Westbrook) and my keeper in the 2nd will be Gore.

1 - Westbrook
2 - Gore
3 - ?
4
5
6
7
8 - Norwood
9
10
11
12
13
14
15 - QB Jason Campbel

8/19/2007 9:13:16 PM

WR

8/19/2007 9:18:45 PM

Okay I think I screwed up on te WRs but I think my draft is oky so far. SHould have picked a WR instead of Bulger. Stupid... but a lot were already keepers ad so were the 2nd level QBs. So Bulger seemed like a good safe pick. But if I could go back I think I would have grabbed TJ Housh or Donald Driver

I just drafted rnd 1- 7th (Westbrook) and my keeper in the 2nd will be Gore.

1 - Westbrook
2 - Gore
3 - Bulger
4 - Lee Evans
5 - Brandon Jackson (possible Keeper next year)
6 - Vincent Jackson
7 - Cotchery
8 - Norwood
9 -
10
11
12
13
14
15 - QB Jason Campbel

[Edited on August 19, 2007 at 10:05 PM. Reason : ]

8/19/2007 9:50:58 PM

Week 2 revelations?

8/19/2007 10:02:13 PM

just got done with mine. pretty happy... (picking 7th out of a 10 person league...)

QBs
Peyton Manning
Alex Smith

RBs
Frank Gore
Maurice Jones-Drew
Marion Barber
Brandon Jackson

WR
Reggie Wayne
Lee Evans
Jerricho Cotchery
Mike Furrey

TEs
Todd Heap
Heath Miller

K
Robbie Gould

Def
Philly

8/19/2007 11:43:29 PM

^Wow, how did you manage that? You have four players that should've been taken before you got to pick in the third round.

8/20/2007 12:08:37 AM

must not be a competitive league

8/20/2007 12:11:55 AM