https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-russian-political-deterioration/626966/

I'm obviously not Russian-- just married to a native Russian speaker born in the former USSR-- but I thought this was an interesting take.

Again, I'm not interested in quibbling with GrumpyGOP about our perceptions over Putin's rational/irrational behavior, but I will point out that I've been vocally concerned for years that Putin would take Belarus, and eventually set his sights on Ukraine and other former Soviet states, so I'm not at all surprised this conflict is taking place. I guess I'm pleasantly surprised and encouraged by the resolve of the Ukrainians and just how hard and fast sanctions have come down, but

In reality, I was at least wrong about Belarus. Putin didn't have to "take" Belarus at all as Lukashenko, Europe's last 'real' dictator if we're being honest about what the term means, has done Putin's bidding-- all of this despite the fact that Belarusians overwhelmingly voted to oust him last 'election' cycle.

I think it's important to remember that some Russians wax nostalgic about the former glory days of the USSR, but they mostly skew a lot older. The younger generation wasn't even alive before the fall of the USSR, and they're routinely being rounded up by the thousands in the streets for protesting.

I guess my problem with some of GOP's take/opinions is that it sounds like he's blaming Russians for Putin's antics-- as if they're resigned to the fact that autocracy is the only reality they'll ever know since they're too ignorant to know of any other alternative. That's a hard, nah for me.

3/9/2022 1:13:36 PM

I don't blame Russians - if anything, I absolved them by pointing out that Russia is and effectively always has been an autocracy. There have always been large numbers of Russians who don't like autocracy, and who protested with everything from street protests to bombs to revolution. But even at their most successful, the result of that opposition has been a period of instability followed by the installation of a new variation on the autocratic theme. They know the alternatives, they ardently desire the alternatives, but in the 1100 some odd years since Rurik set up shop in Novgorod we haven't seen the alternative effectively brought about.

I don't think this is some defect of "the Russian people," I think it comes from:

a) the difficulties inherent in governing such an enormous, diverse country
b) the perception of being under siege or threat
c) the large minority of the population that is resigned to autocracy, or rather that becomes that way following a period of instability and hardship
d) the absence of well-established liberal democratic norms
e) the continuous presence of an autocratic/secret police element from one government to the next
f) historical momentum

Several of these affect us, too, we've just been fortunate that they haven't all combined. When they felt under threat, Americans welcomed the Patriot Act. When we had a period of instability, we welcomed Richard Nixon. And as for problems of having a large, diverse country, I'll let modern American history speak for itself.

The question is whether or not it's possible to break that impetus towards autocracy that is now baked into Russian government, and I think the answer is yes. I even think that a popular movement can accomplish that goal. But "remove Putin," by itself, doesn't get it there or even advance the effort very much.

3/9/2022 4:36:38 PM

The House is about to vote to send $13.6 billion to Ukraine

3/9/2022 7:58:59 PM

And?

Or was that just meant to be informational?

3/9/2022 8:22:03 PM

^^Not that there’s anything wrong with that

[Edited on March 9, 2022 at 11:44 PM. Reason : ^that too lol]

3/9/2022 11:43:32 PM

^^^^The systematic purging of anyone in the population at the high level that isn't a "yes" man is also pretty devastating to a country. With respect to that I honestly think the country still hasn't recovered from tens (hundreds?) of thousands of high level people Stalin had murdered. (Also that's not to be confused with the tens of millions he had murdered for other reasons).

3/10/2022 9:18:08 AM

Daave is upset because he doesn't think giving aid to the Ukranians to defend themselves from the people bombing their maternity hospitals is correct.

3/10/2022 10:47:54 AM

No I actually think it's a great idea to send massive amounts of money and weaponry to a country encouraging every adult citizen to battle a much larger and stronger invading army, as well as violating the UN mercenary convention by offering citizenship to immigrants who participate in their war. There is clearly no better way out of this.

[Edited on March 10, 2022 at 11:00 AM. Reason : .]

3/10/2022 11:00:17 AM

Peace for our time.

3/10/2022 11:03:08 AM

If you truly believed in that comparison, you would be calling for NATO to enter open conflict with Russia, not just supplying arms to a country that is very obviously doomed to an inevitable defeat.

3/10/2022 11:06:31 AM

You would think that because of your incredibly naive view of world politics.

3/10/2022 11:12:12 AM

At this point, I don't understand any action taken by global companies against Russian citizens. Banking is difficult, buying is difficult, and now they can't even enjoy McDonalds or Photoshop.

Do we really think that the citizens of Russia can affect any meaningful change here?

3/10/2022 3:24:44 PM

I do.

3/10/2022 3:26:39 PM

I doubt Putin gives a shit what his people think at this point.

3/10/2022 3:28:09 PM

1 man can't effectively control 145,000,000 if they are mostly united in opposition.

3/10/2022 3:45:24 PM

Dude trying to talk to us about the mercenary convention when the other side is fucking Russia.

I mean, leaving aside that the Mercenary Convention was a dead letter from the start, Russia is all about some state-sanctioned mercenary groups.

Quote :

"At this point, I don't understand any action taken by global companies against Russian citizens. Banking is difficult, buying is difficult, and now they can't even enjoy McDonalds or Photoshop."

Of course you do. Shit like that isn't about effecting real change in Russia, it's about (a) weighing the bad optics of selling happy meals to Russians, and (b) wondering how the fuck you're going to extract your profits from Russia if their financial system is cut off.

3/10/2022 8:47:00 PM

Wow lol they’re really going ham on this one

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-facebook-instagram-temporarily-allow-calls-violence-against-russians-2022-03-10/?

3/10/2022 9:29:10 PM

Quote :

" Dude trying to talk to us about the mercenary convention when the other side is fucking Russia."

We’re not giving Russia $13.6 billion and the point was more-so that offering citizenship is a clear ploy to draw in desperate people.

It’s just absolute delusion to believe that pumping money into Ukraine will do anything other than prolong the inevitable and kill more people.

[Edited on March 10, 2022 at 9:50 PM. Reason : .]

3/10/2022 9:35:37 PM

Well yeah...if you suck every dick in prison without hesitation, you probably won't ever get your ass kicked, either.

3/10/2022 11:38:24 PM

Daave also thinks rape victims should "lay back and try to enjoy it" to not prolong the inevitable.

3/11/2022 7:17:26 AM

You keep sidestepping the point - what do you think the outcome of this will be and what is the purpose of prolonging the conflict?

3/11/2022 9:51:07 AM

This is literally the level of your ideas.

Ukrainians can make is absolutely untenable for Russia to occupy and hold Ukraine and they should. This puts them in a drastically stronger position to negotiate. Your idea of letting Russia just absolutely steamroll with no resistance leads to Russia doing whatever they want, installing a puppet government, enforcing their rule, etc. Where does it end? What if he wants to do the same to Moldova?

3/11/2022 10:01:27 AM

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085427380/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia

Quote :

"Last week's assault by Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was far more dangerous than initial assessments suggested, according to an analysis by NPR of video and photographs of the attack and its aftermath."

3/11/2022 10:06:21 AM

Quote :

"It's an oppressive, settler-colonial state, doing what an oppressive settler-colonial state does. IDF attacks and provokes Palestinians on a regular basis. They intentionally shoot children, medics, and otherwise peaceful civilians with tear gas, stun grenades, and real bullets. They're currently allowing Israeli settlers to hunt down and attack Palestinians in the streets of Jerusalem. It's not a conflict, it's apartheid, and Palestinians are permitted by international law to protest and resist."

Weird you don't think Ukrainians have the EXACT SAME RIGHTS. The hypocrisy and ignorance you show is astounding.

[Edited on March 11, 2022 at 10:17 AM. Reason : a]

3/11/2022 10:17:08 AM

The fact that you can't see a difference between these two situations is astounding. Also I'm not finding a single post by you in the palestine thread! Odd, wonder why.

3/11/2022 10:36:49 AM

Well shit, if I didn't post on in a TWW thread about it, I clearly must not have an opinion on it.

3/11/2022 10:39:59 AM

So tell me daaaave. Where does it end with Russia? If Russia just wants to keep steam rolling countries, what's to stop them in your world

3/11/2022 10:41:42 AM

No proof that Ukraine would have been taken without provocation by NATO and Ukraine itself. It was admitted by Biden himself in the 90s that Ukraine constituted a red line.

But regardless, it's good to be honest that Ukraine is actually just a pawn in this game of chance.

3/11/2022 10:45:32 AM

You're avoiding the question. You have said the best case scenario is that Ukraine lets Russia take them quickly with as little violence as possible. What's the end goal? Let Russia hold them forever? What if they want to invade another non-NATO country?

3/11/2022 11:02:10 AM

Quote :

"hypocrisy and ignorance you show is astounding."

.. US government too

3/11/2022 11:05:02 AM

Quote :

"What's the end goal? Let Russia hold them forever? What if they want to invade another non-NATO country?"

The end goal is that we stop installing military outposts on Russia's border and recruiting neighboring counties into mutual "defense" pacts. Ukraine is a loss. NATO already fucked up. Sorry.

3/11/2022 11:28:46 AM

"Fuck the Ukrainians and their freedom of self determination" - daave

Jesus christ, you really do blame rape victims don't you?

3/11/2022 11:35:20 AM

It think Ukraine should generally be able to have self determination but "people should have freedom of self determination" would represent a pretty huge change in US domestic and foreign policy is we applied it beyond Ukraine

3/11/2022 1:50:42 PM

Quote :

"We’re not giving Russia $13.6 billion and the point was more-so that offering citizenship is a clear ploy to draw in desperate people. It’s just absolute delusion to believe that pumping money into Ukraine will do anything other than prolong the inevitable and kill more people."

If the destruction and conquest of Ukraine is inevitable, how is offering citizenship to the soon-to-be-ex-country an enticement?

Meanwhile, Russia has offered citizenship to foreigners serving in its military since 2010. France has been doing it since the 1800s. Others have done it at various points and I've long advocated that it is abhorrent that the United States still deports "illegals" who served in the U.S. military. Leaving to one side that the Mercenary Convention was a dead letter the moment it was written, that reference isn't getting you very far.

As for "prolonging the inevitable"...

Quote :

"You keep sidestepping the point - what do you think the outcome of this will be and what is the purpose of prolonging the conflict?"

In descending order of probability, these are the possible benefits of prolonging the conflict:

-Russia accomplishes all its objectives, but the unexpected military difficulty and staggering costs make it and other countries less likely to conduct offensive operations in the future (the second clause also applies to each of the following)
-Russia achieves what Putin can technically describe as a military victory, but Ukraine remains independent and largely territorially intact
-Military setbacks and sanctions cause Russian elites to oust Putin and end the war
-Military setbacks, sanctions, antiwar movements, and existing unrest cause a popular revolution in Russia, ending the war

I think there's a greater than 50% probability we see one of those outcomes, which I think most of us except for you would describe as "better than Putin just takes over Ukraine," and that military support increases that percentage.

Quote :

"The end goal is that we stop installing military outposts on Russia's border and recruiting neighboring counties into mutual "defense" pacts."

"Recruiting" LOL

3/11/2022 2:28:47 PM

Quote :

"FREE GAZA!"

Quote :

"UKRAINE DESERVES IT!"

Quote :

"ZZZZZZZzzzzzzz"

-daaave, probably

3/11/2022 7:12:57 PM

Seriously, what is Russia's justification for all this carnage? This is institutionalized lying on a massive scale. Ukraine has had land repeatedly seized by Russia in the years of lead-up, plus the downing of a full passenger jet on their soil. Not to mention the world's worst nuclear disaster if we go back a ways. Yet Russia still has the gall to frame this as somehow a justified operation. Infuriating that they can apparently get away with this and no one can legitimately help Ukraine militarily because of what Russia "might do". At least when we destroy a country, we rebuild it. They're just destroying it. At least we always have a bad guy teed up. Zelenskyy seems like a legit good guy.

3/11/2022 7:19:23 PM

Give them the planes.

3/13/2022 10:53:03 AM

daaave hoping Russia blows up a couple more hospitals to teach NATO a lesson.

3/13/2022 11:51:43 AM

I’m kinda surprised how much destruction Russia is doing. They’re leveling entire city blocs. Destroying hospitals and schools. I don’t know how they think this is going to keep ppl governable if they even get the regime change they want. Seems like they’re in for a decade of insurgent attacks and possibly domestic terror attacks within Russia. And ongoing issues for the rest of Europe

Iran now just bombed a base with a cruise missile in Iraq… lots of instability

3/13/2022 4:35:06 PM

Lack of modern precision guided munitions will do that.

3/13/2022 5:27:16 PM

The videos coming out of Moscow with protestors being arrested are closing in on China's level of censorship.

3/13/2022 5:55:02 PM

US killed 40 people destroying a hospital in Afghanistan in 2015

3/13/2022 7:13:53 PM

Whataboutisms are fun, aren't they?

3/13/2022 7:16:49 PM

What am I whatabouting other than lack of precision munitions not being the only way to hit a hospital

3/13/2022 7:35:21 PM

Quote :

"They’re leveling entire city blocs. Destroying hospitals and schools"

This is literally what I'm replying to with my comment. Russia has been dropping a shit ton of artillery (not well aimed either) and their munitions they seem to be using are relatively dumb in terms of guidance. This is what I alluded to early when I said it was how Russia was going to escalate, essentially just stop giving a fuck and bomb everything they can.

You've been 'whataboutism'ing a ton in this thread. I don't think anyone here is arguing that the US's record is clean, however, you and daaave seem to be downplaying Russian attacks and framing it around US past actions (which are nowhere close to what Russia is doing here).

3/13/2022 7:42:07 PM

I've barely been posting in this thread

3/13/2022 8:11:23 PM

And when you do, it has typically been a whataboutism about US policy.

Anyways, reading from a different thread, it appears to Russian Army is essentially 30% officers with not much of an NCO corps at all. That shit explains so much.

3/13/2022 8:20:36 PM

Isn't half this thread about US policy?

3/13/2022 8:21:19 PM

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/best-or-worst-both-worlds solid read about the lack of NCOs

3/13/2022 8:25:16 PM

Quote :

"I’m kinda surprised how much destruction Russia is doing. They’re leveling entire city blocs. Destroying hospitals and schools. I don’t know how they think this is going to keep ppl governable if they even get the regime change they want."

I'm less surprised. It's straight out of their Chechnya playbook. They basically levelled Grozny, and now Chechen fighters are some of Putin's most effective and brutal.

There's a few reasons why I don't think it will work quite so well here (not least being, we're willing and able to continue to support Ukrainian insurgents/opposition/whatever to a far greater extent than was the case in Chechnya), but it's not exactly a novel play for them.

Quote :

"Lack of modern precision guided munitions will do that."

I had read that a few places, but now there's some pushback on this narrative from credible observers who say that our intelligence indicates they have a decent quantity of PGMs but have been holding them in reserve, either for when they start really moving into the big cities or in the event that NATO forces become involved.

3/14/2022 8:01:36 AM