Shorted FSLR, wow, tell me what your stops were?...Seems like since that doomsday Friday in October, the market has been between 8200-9400....Might be a good time to buy, wait for a rally, then unload once the market hits 9200.....Paulson changed the terms of the bailout, not sure what was the big deal, most people were angryt o begin with that banks bad debt was being bought up, now a lot of that money is going elsewhere, seems like the mere fact that there's an ounce of uncertainty of where that money is going sends the market tumbling, even though there were plenty of people irate over the bailout...

[Edited on November 12, 2008 at 10:34 PM. Reason : .]

11/12/2008 10:27:51 PM

Here is some good reading: http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page1

synopsis: It's a fascinating article, written by Michael Lewis of Liar's Poker fame, about a few of the guys who actually saw this financial disaster coming and bet on everything falling apart, Steve Eisman and his colleagues at the hedge fund FrontPoint. Head trader Danny Moses describes the feeling of realizing they were right:

Quote :

" As we sat there, we were weirdly calm," Moses says. "We felt insulated from the whole market reality. It was an out-of-body experience. We just sat and watched the people pass and talked about what might happen next. How many of these people were going to lose their jobs. Who was going to rent these buildings after all the Wall Street firms collapsed." Eisman was appalled. "Look," he said. "I'm short. I don't want the country to go into a depression. I just want it to ******* deleverage." He had tried a thousand times in a thousand ways to explain how screwed up the business was, and no one wanted to hear it. "

^, I shorted FSLR after they announced earnings. It popped, and I shorted. I strongly felt like it would go below $100 but I did have to ride it out as it went to $177. That sucked. If I didn't feel so strong about it dropping further I would have sold it the next day for a few grand profit. FSLR will see $50.

I shorted 200 shares of GS today but it lingered around my purchase price of $69.20 until lunch when I put a 3% trailing stop on it. I come back from lunch to see it covered and I lost $127. I don't care about the loss but it went lower to $65.20.

11/12/2008 11:15:21 PM

FYI, CROX loses $140 million. For some reason, this stock has been talked about disproportionately in these threads.

11/12/2008 11:28:29 PM

^^ what borrow rate are you paying to short GS?

11/13/2008 6:47:07 AM

cancelled my order of BRK.B at 3250 -- i think it's going to go lower

come on WB

11/13/2008 7:35:56 AM

Did you see this link I posted for you on the last page

http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/kass-warren-buffett-has-lost-his-groove/newsanalysis/investing/10447422.html


How big is your trading account that you're wanting to deal in BRK.B?

11/13/2008 9:06:28 AM

CROX is in the shitter cause no one wants to pay $30 for those piece of shit foam plastic shoes. Like I said before, pick any luxury item and it's stock will go down significantly.

Perry Ellis is seeing the same effect today and Walmart is seeing the opposite effect.

11/13/2008 9:15:51 AM

This is setting up to be another 2-3% down day.

11/13/2008 9:42:54 AM

Dammit, I'm pissed I fucked up my GS short yesterday.

11/13/2008 10:09:24 AM

daytrading NT. Got in at .60, where is the get out point? 7% return isnt bad I am tempted to pull out now

11/13/2008 10:58:39 AM

wow GOOG at $284

11/13/2008 11:05:57 AM

if you're happy with 7% return, then take it. don't be greedy.

could also set a trailing stop on it.

11/13/2008 11:05:58 AM

got out at 5%, the drop was coming

[Edited on November 13, 2008 at 11:24 AM. Reason : and I paid the drop off and now it is at a new high for the day! woooo awesome]

11/13/2008 11:20:02 AM

Quote :

"Did you see this link I posted for you on the last page"

thanks for that. i haven't read it in detail, just glanced over it for now. will look at it tonight.

Quote :

"How big is your trading account that you're wanting to deal in BRK.B?"

not huge. I was only interested in 2-3 shares of brk.b, maybe 4 depending on the price (about 18% of the portfolio). plus the account is just for extra money im investing for a rainy day and for fun. I'm not touching my retirement accounts.

i still think it's going to recover. that said, my dad got out of his berkshire (and pretty much everything else he had) a few months ago before the big drop. i should have followed him

11/13/2008 12:34:01 PM

I definitely plan on adding to my brk.b when I feel things have bottomed out as well.
I'm not actively trading anything right now - sometimes working for a registered broker/dealer can really be a bummer

11/13/2008 1:14:57 PM

Quote :

"i wish i had cash to go long some more CHK 11/12/2008 12:03:17 PM"

11/13/2008 2:41:10 PM

There is something really sick about a market that has a 10% intraday swing. This is not healthy.

11/13/2008 4:00:42 PM

Exactly. This doesn't happen in a good market. Things are fucked up for this sort of shit to happen.

11/13/2008 4:04:10 PM

picked up 250 shares of PFG at $16.18 this morning, closed at $18.90

yay

11/13/2008 4:14:13 PM

Bunch of freakin sheep

I could do their jobs...probably better... and get paid $texas

11/13/2008 4:35:40 PM

I bought GNW at < $1 at the end of the day yesterday.

Now I do not feel so bad but here is where I never know when to cut and run.
This was a solid $30 stock - wondering if the chances of it getting to at least $10 are possible in the next year or two.

Has anyone ever looked at this?

11/13/2008 4:51:14 PM

I was just about to post about GNW. I've had them on my watch list, but unfortunately did not pull the trigger today. I will probably try to day trade it tomorrow, If you are thinking about dumping it and locking in your profit, I would do it immediately at the open bell because I think it will open high around $1.90 or so and drop down pretty quick, followed by some wild swings throughout the day. Of course this is purely speculation, so don't hate me if I'm wrong.

[Edited on November 13, 2008 at 5:06 PM. Reason : /]

11/13/2008 5:01:33 PM

So what about NT?

All the news of not enough cash on hand at the end of 2009 - It's a company that is doomed but never actually goes bust. They have been limping along for years.

11/14/2008 11:16:05 AM

They'll either get their shit together (what's this the 5th major re-org in 8 years?) or get acquired. The canadian government has a huge investment in nortel gear, and they still have a significant revenue stream coming from legacy telephony systems.

worst case scenario, the canadian govt. bails them out, although i don't think it will come to that.

i don't have any yet. i've been tempted though. It's only slightly less of a gamble than roulette.

11/14/2008 12:14:42 PM

any low $ stocks that the gurus here would recommend looking at? by low, i mean $10 or less... i'm trying to buy in bulk.

11/14/2008 2:10:15 PM

price of the stock doesn't mean much...

11/14/2008 2:20:45 PM

Im hoping my ESLR position I keep increasing turns out to be very profitable in the future. Its trading between 3 and 4 now and its been projected in a few reports if everything goes as planned to possibly be a 40-60 dollar stock in say 5 years.

11/14/2008 2:56:37 PM

lol how is the stock market doing well the past 2 days with every single report being worse and worse

11/14/2008 3:00:22 PM

Finally, had some balls to wade in, caught BGU at 37.10 and just sold at 42.15

11/14/2008 3:04:12 PM

If bad news comes out and the market stops going down you would think that means we have pretty much reached bottom would you not? At some point stocks will be so low that no matter what the news people aren't gonna sell off anymore on the assumption that it wont go much lower. Perhaps we are reaching that point?

[Edited on November 14, 2008 at 3:10 PM. Reason : n't]

11/14/2008 3:09:51 PM

i wouldn't bet on it. i think there is still too much positivity out there to be honest. how are some companies actually still getting "UPGRADED" in all of this mess?? specifically in retail, i don't think they've really grasped how deep this recession is going to be. i mean nobody is buying ANYTHING right now. there is absolutely no money flowing through the economy. it's not just financial companies that are over-leveraged, it's people...many of whom have done so against the plummeting value of their homes.

until home prices stop declining, we are not going to sniff a recovery. the ENTIRE market will suffer. so if you are buying these "beaten down," speculative stocks in this type of market, you are just going to lose money. this is the time to be scooping up blue chips at prices that only come along once every 25 years...

11/14/2008 9:37:51 PM

tomorrow could be rough

this shit has got to end at some point - i bet spring of 09 is going to be the rock bottom. it can get a lot worse and probably will.

11/16/2008 8:58:47 PM

just a heads up for yall

WAMPQ, AND WAMKQ,

WAMPQ will go to 100 to 1000 as soon as wamu comes out of bankrupcy or gets bought out
its has gone from $1 to $7 in about a week,

wamkq will also get paid, jump in while its still early

11/17/2008 2:20:04 AM

Caught 100 shares of SSO at 24.85

11/17/2008 9:53:28 AM

so SSO is basically a positive play on the S&P? i guess the thinking is that the market is going to rebound at SOME point, but the more I learn about investing the more I become bearish on the market as a whole. i think the place to be is good quality individual stocks...i sold out of all my mutual fund positions to own individual stocks

11/17/2008 10:57:05 AM

it's more of a play on the volatility.

buy SSO after a big down day/days
sell SSO after a big up day/days then buy QID, SRS, or some other ultra short, for the ride back down.

lather, rinse, repeat.

with the few grand i've been doing this with, i've made about a grand in the last month.. a drop in the bucket compared to what i've lost this year so far.

11/17/2008 11:52:32 AM

^^ From the google summary

Quote :

"ProShares Ultra S&P500 (the Fund), formerly Ultra S&P500 ProShares, seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index is a measure of large-cap United States stock market performance. It is a capitalization weighted index of 500 United States operating companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) selected by an S&P committee through a non-mechanical process that factors criteria, such as liquidity, price, market capitalization, financial viability and public float. Reconstitution occurs both on a quarterly and on an ongoing basis. The Fund takes positions in securities and/or financial instruments that, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as 200% of the daily return of the Index."

This thing has been doing a lot of volume since the market started getting eratic in Sept. The 100 day vol average is 37 million shares, the 22 day average is 91 million. Since the fund is leveraged, the new norm of 5%+ intraday swings moves nearly daily will net you easy 10% gains if you get on the right side of it. You can also lose big if you're on the wrong side.

Also check out my early post about Direxion's 3x levered funds. Currently, with the S&P almost at flat, their FAZ which is 3x short financial stocks is returning 6.5% at the moment.

11/17/2008 1:28:38 PM

today is too weird.

i don't know what to buy.

i'm sitting this one out.

11/17/2008 2:12:28 PM

I'd say we are having a calm before the storm moment. I'm expecting a violent move up in a day or so as folks gain confidence that we didn't push back into the previous lows. But, I wouldn't be shocked to see a violent move down either. Let's just say I'm not confident enough in the former to bet big on it. There is a lot of talk that the hedge funds having to liquidate because clients want their money is part of the reason the markets are pushed down, and once all those sell calls are cleared will see a slower but higher bear rally between now and year end and the next round of big earnings reports. Again, I'm just afraid enough of something weird happening though given all the unpredictability that I don't feel safe putting too much in here.

11/17/2008 2:21:10 PM

yeah, this week is options expiration week, so it should be a roller coaster.

11/17/2008 2:49:01 PM

Citi cutting 50,000 jobs in the news today...Imagine if they had bought WB. I wonder if that failed move was a cover?

11/17/2008 2:55:31 PM

boy oh boy i'd be upset if i actually paid anything for this worthless paper

11/17/2008 2:59:47 PM

BRK.B: $3,160.00
229.00 (6.76%)


my order is still in a 3k - can't go any higher - not enough to trade with

[Edited on November 17, 2008 at 3:46 PM. Reason : ]

11/17/2008 3:45:57 PM

went ahead and picked up 100 shares of SSO @ 24.45

11/17/2008 4:00:51 PM

bought into UA - gonna trade it every few days if i can. hopefully catch 15-20% on each ride.

11/17/2008 4:02:39 PM

btw, this is the first time i've been down on my BIDU position

11/18/2008 12:24:18 PM

Just covered my short position on FSLR at $110.58. Shorted it at $134.50.

11/18/2008 1:03:04 PM

Quote :

"bought into UA - gonna trade it every few days if i can. hopefully catch 15-20% on each ride."

Why? You're getting burned as of now. I'm curious, what metrics are going into your decisions, I think you need to lay those out for us here to critique them before you pull the trigger. Granted, it is just the wolf web, but there are more than a couple of folks that seem to be making at least break even calls.

UA was down 10% yesterday on half it's normal volume. Do you understand what this indicator means? There wasn't anyone in it thinking that as it was falling they were getting a bargain. Everyone was just basically jumping ship. There is plenty of volatility to trade in this market, but not a retail stock days after the worst retail news in decades. Head back to energy and financials if you want to make trades on the order of days/weels as that is where the volatility is, or perhaps some of the leveraged ETFs.

11/18/2008 1:15:54 PM

UA: just been watching it a long time and know eventually it will be a good play. whether or not i got in at the right time ... well that's obvious. my thought process on that is retarded at best

BRK.B order filled at $3010.00

[Edited on November 18, 2008 at 2:11 PM. Reason : ]

11/18/2008 2:10:53 PM

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapse

GE headed for single digits?

11/18/2008 2:21:17 PM