Gotta be manipulation in this market. It's been too predictable. The hedgies and everyone else that lost big money has gotten desperate and they are organizing the fuck out of these moves. It's all bullshit. Either that, or they were holding the market up for 2 weeks in the face or really terrible news and now they can't do it any more.

11/20/2008 4:02:16 PM

bought another 100 SSO @ 19.01

11/20/2008 4:02:34 PM

i'll just pretend it was never really mine to begin with

11/20/2008 4:03:02 PM

^^ Fuck. I bought some at 20.18 around 3:30.

11/20/2008 4:05:32 PM

another lovely day for my portfolio

Total Market Value: $6,194.50
Today's Change: $-1,391.00

down $2800 in 2 days. most awesome.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 4:07 PM. Reason : /]

11/20/2008 4:06:09 PM

Got into SSO for another 150 myself at 20.10. Poor Duke, why anyone would pour 10k into a 2x levered etf and walk away for the day is beyond me. He's currently down about 1k for that maneuver.

^ You trading or have it sitting on something?

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 4:07 PM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 4:07:22 PM

i know plenty of people who would be jumping out a window if they actually had "real money" in there... no idea how you guys do it.

11/20/2008 4:07:39 PM

401k money for me.

i might cry in several decades over this.

11/20/2008 4:09:16 PM

^^oh believe me, it's crossed my mind

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 4:09 PM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 4:09:24 PM

Quote :

"ncsuREMY9 All American 1606 Posts user info edit post i wouldn't bet on it. i think there is still too much positivity out there to be honest. how are some companies actually still getting "UPGRADED" in all of this mess?? specifically in retail, i don't think they've really grasped how deep this recession is going to be. i mean nobody is buying ANYTHING right now. there is absolutely no money flowing through the economy. it's not just financial companies that are over-leveraged, it's people...many of whom have done so against the plummeting value of their homes. until home prices stop declining, we are not going to sniff a recovery. the ENTIRE market will suffer. so if you are buying these "beaten down," speculative stocks in this type of market, you are just going to lose money. this is the time to be scooping up blue chips at prices that only come along once every 25 years... 11/14/2008 9:37:51 PM"

that said, i gobbled up some CVX today under $65

11/20/2008 4:16:49 PM

the people who got here before y2k really might be suicidal. bonus or not.

11/20/2008 4:17:54 PM

eh, the people that did that saw the NDX go from over 4000 to like 600, so all those tech compnaies have seen far worse. However, the dow is one more 400 point day from the low point back in Oct of 2002. I'd love to refresh this thread in 15 years and see what's up...Prettsure we're up to 49% of powder being dry...Historically speaking, 20% dry powder sparks a bull rally/trend. People are SCARED ------- (fill in adjective)

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 4:25 PM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 4:21:05 PM

Quote :

"However, the dow is one more 400 point day from the low point back in Oct of 2002."

Ugh, huh? We zoomed right by that today and are back to circa 1997.

11/20/2008 4:29:09 PM

damn i thought 3000 for BRK.B was gonna be a low point oh well - not gonna look at that account for a long time anymore.

I am thinking of going in on SSO but damn - fucking market - unpredictable

11/20/2008 4:29:31 PM

Who knows what happens tomorrow, we pushed through what people thought was the bottom it may just freefall now. I suspect another down day tomorrow and then maybe next week we will see some sort of upflow or god I hope so Im down like 60% now

11/20/2008 4:34:18 PM

Missing: my shirt

11/20/2008 4:48:46 PM

^^^the problem with Berkshire is how exposed it is to financials. Just look at the companies Buffett owns...lots of insurance. Sure, shares look cheap now but I have no idea how to value financial companies so who knows what they are really worth? With home prices continuing to decline, the assets of those institutions will continue to decrease in value, dragging down BRK.B in the process.

In the end you know Buffett is doing the right thing, but I refuse to buy into a business that I cannot value. Another problem is that Berkshire's asset base is so large, you are just not going to see the growth potential as with smaller capped companies. Berkshire will continue to grow but it's best days were seen decades ago.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 4:54 PM. Reason : ]

11/20/2008 4:54:03 PM

P.S. - I really think you guys that are buying SSO are going to end up disappointed. Just look at some of the junk that is in this thing: http://www.proshares.com/funds/sso.html?Daily%20Holdings=y&show=all

Would you want to buy stock in most of these companies if you were doing so individually? Look at all those financials and retail. This is why these "whole stock market" funds just are not going to cut it down the road. We're entering a new era of consumer spending, and I don't think anyone really knows how deep the cuts will be...but I want nothing to do with retail or financials until that is more clear.

You are better off buying strong individual companies that are going to make it through this mess.

11/20/2008 5:04:06 PM

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

11/20/2008 5:04:16 PM

I dont think many people are buying SSO for long term, I myself will probably pick some up but only to hold for one of those big bounce days taht is likely coming after the past 2 days, buy it at 19 sell it at 21 or 22 and take the quick cash. Then pick up some SRS or something if you think its just a false bear rally and rinse repeat.

11/20/2008 5:10:58 PM

^^^ I think most of us in SSO and these other ETFs are basically gambling on the swings. I made about 8% or whatever (before commission, I'm small fish right now) on the swing this morning, that isn't bad for an hour of work. It's mildly dangerous as Duke is going to find out. After 12% down over a couple of days in a market that appears, at least to me, to be a little bit manipulated, I'm expecting a suckers rally which should push SSO up 10+%. It's a real gamble and I suppose the market could finally be going normal where it really does seem to be pricing in bad news, as opposed to the prior 2-3 weeks where it had a mind of its own and shook off every last shred of bad news and moved seemingly erratically. We're near or under 2002 lows, and all the growth since then wasn't entirely fake so there should be some support in the near term for now.

Looking after hours, SSO is basically flat, which is an encouraging sign that it was trying to turn around into the close.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 5:16 PM. Reason : .]

11/20/2008 5:13:25 PM

man my 401k is awesome

11/20/2008 5:14:45 PM

Quote :

"Ugh, huh? We zoomed right by that today and are back to circa 1997."

Not sure what I was looking at. We aren't there yet, another 24 points and we will be.

11/20/2008 5:26:21 PM

whats 24 points when we are making 400 point drops every day haha

11/20/2008 5:28:15 PM

Quote :

"I think most of us in SSO and these other ETFs are basically gambling on the swings."

yep.

Quote :

" It's mildly dangerous as Duke is going to find out"

No doubt. Goes hand in hand with the potential for a big payout. I wouldn't be able to spend that money for 4+ more months even if i wanted to, so I'm pretty confident that I'll see it go above $20.50/share sometime between now and April.

Final results: bought 485 shares of SSO @ $20.50. Now I have to decide whether to set a limit sell order at $22 or so, or sit on it for a month or two to see what I can get.

11/20/2008 6:28:46 PM

I don't know how you guys can make such gambles with your 401(k). Maybe I'm not a huge risk-taker but that's something I try to be somewhat conservative on.

Even with the money I do buy/sell with (I call it play money), I still tend to be a little more conservative.

All I know is I'm glad I didn't buy my 3 shares of BRK.B at 3500

11/20/2008 6:41:33 PM

I moved all my 401k to US funds. I am still young, hopefully these will be bargain purchases 30 yrs from now

specifically buying VUVLX which has lost me some serious jack over the last few days

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 7:17 PM. Reason : ss]

11/20/2008 7:15:51 PM

^^ i have a seperate IRA account that I max out with nothing but index funds.

Even in my brokerage account, it's almost all long-term buy-hold, invested in solid companies.

This SSO play was with my cash on hand that I'll use for house downpayments, sports cars, jet skis, whatever. If I lose a grand or two out of it, that will suck, but it won't ultimately make a huge impact on me. Of course, I'm not going to sell it for a loss, anyway...the question is how long it takes me to make money on it. Hopefully I'll turn my profit before I have any other use for that money (which I think is very likely. I can't spend it for 4 more months, and I don't really need it when I get back.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 8:24 PM. Reason : asdfads]

11/20/2008 8:20:44 PM

^^^ I have a seperate IRA account that I max out with nothing but a target retirement fund (VFIFX)

Even in my brokerage account, it's almost all long-term buy-hold, invested in solid companies.

[Edited on November 20, 2008 at 9:40 PM. Reason : stupid arrows]

11/20/2008 9:39:59 PM

need to make your high risk bets in 401k/ira, theoretically high risk = more money a lot of the time, you dont have to pay taxes on this gain

11/20/2008 10:13:35 PM

Futures are looking encouraging, for now. I'm hoping to rotate out of SSO and into FAS tomorrow if the ride looks like it's up. Financials took a real beating today, so if there is a rally, they'll have the most room to run.

11/20/2008 11:09:54 PM

Should I continue to wait for AAPL to fall, or do you guys thing it's a good time.

11/21/2008 7:53:37 AM

May have to wait on SSO as I was hoping it would still be around 19 at open but looks like stocks are trading higher in premarket and who knows what they will actually do once things open. Id hate to buy it at 19.75 only to see things quickly plunge again.

11/21/2008 8:20:01 AM

Quote :

"I'm hoping to rotate out of SSO and into FAS tomorrow if the ride looks like it's up. Financials took a real beating today, so if there is a rally, they'll have the most room to run."

FAS up 12% in pretrading. Wish I would have gotten a piece at close yesterday, I'm just not trying to hold a 3x levered fund overnight.

Doesn't look like these gains will hold. I set a tight stop to SSO and it triggered for a very teeny profit (might as well call it break even). Maybe try again later today after a trend appears established.

[Edited on November 21, 2008 at 9:40 AM. Reason : .]

11/21/2008 9:20:34 AM

anyone catch Fast Money yesterday?

Peter Schiff (who's been right about everything) came out and predicted a gloomy scenario:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGHODRNJqRo

[Edited on November 21, 2008 at 9:41 AM. Reason : ]

11/21/2008 9:40:28 AM

Saw a piece linked in one of my blogs about the unemployment number, saying we are approaching early 80s levels. The stock market is still in late 90s levels. Home prices still elevated and credit still tight. I think we have a big overcorrection past the mean unless BO comes out with a statement about his SoT and a plan to get the market corrected. We'll see an instant 15% rally on that news.

Confidence just sucks balls now and I think traders are finally giving up and throwing in the towel.

11/21/2008 9:45:10 AM

^^ yeah i caught that yesterday, but i was on a treadmill, and the closed caption text was awful.

what i got out of it does not give me warm fuzzies.

11/21/2008 9:47:52 AM

that guy just bitch slapped alot of people

11/21/2008 10:24:13 AM

Damn just noticed Foot Locker had dropped from 14 to nearly 4 in the past week or two. I know christmas is gonna be bad but damn 50% drop today alone.

11/21/2008 10:31:34 AM

imo, the dollar decline he talks about and need for a resurgence in manufacturing are two sides of the same coin. the more the dollar declines, the better for exports, that is unless the decline happens so fast that input costs (mainly raw materials & energy) spike hard enough to make it impossible for manufacturers to produce stuff profitably. its true that the ultimate fix to high prices is high prices, but reaching that equilibrium/letting nature take its course is not painless with regard to the human side of things. in which case a 'build it and they will come' paradigm may be necessary -- see John Maynard Keynes.

also in a broader sense, the more stuff you have, the more leverage you can afford. in recent times, we've been too content with taking on leverage without stuff backing it up. that rebalancing act is what will take place in the next few years if not decades. the good news is, the bounty of this land gives us a lot of capacity to produce stuff, and the sooner we get to that silver bullet of cheap/free energy, the better off we'll be.

11/21/2008 10:36:22 AM

Well got my buy order in for SSO at 18 now that its starting to dip below yesterdays close so we will see what happens.

11/21/2008 11:01:24 AM

You got it at 18?

11/21/2008 12:12:06 PM

Quote :

"Peter Schiff (who's been right about everything) came out and predicted a gloomy scenario:"

Damn. Does that mean go heavy on foreign and emerging market ETFs?

11/21/2008 1:13:52 PM

ha, what markets are "emerging" right now?

everything's shitting the bed!

11/21/2008 1:14:51 PM

haha. i stand corrected

I was just noticing that my VWO is low as shit.

11/21/2008 1:17:50 PM

anybody own any LVS?

11/21/2008 2:44:11 PM

gah, everytime i look at SRS, I die a little bit inside.

coulda had a 100%+ return.

yeah yeah, i know.

11/21/2008 3:18:20 PM

I missed a limit around 2pm on 200 shares ERX by about 20 cents. Canceled it because I had to go away for a little bit, see that it would have triggered about 45 minutes later and I'd currently be up about 25% or perhaps a tight trail would have sold me out at around 18% up on the blip down 10 minutes ago. I dunno about you, but I think I could handle 600 for 45 minutes of work

11/21/2008 3:38:10 PM

Wow. I just read up on ERX and decided to give it a try. Because of the price fluctuations I just did a market order instead of my usual limit order.

The order went through at $36.73 and immediately dropped $0.50. Thats right everybody! I'm the intraday high!

11/21/2008 4:02:27 PM

I don't even see when ERX was at $36.73. Way to fail it up big time.

11/21/2008 4:45:31 PM