Reminder that Bernie flipped a formerly Republican state (Vermont) by running as a socialist. All of the David Frums of the world can fuck off.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 12:24 PM. Reason : v true v]

2/6/2020 12:17:04 PM

I mean, if they want to vote for Bernie or whoever the nominee is, welcome aboard. But they should get no influence or anything they want. It’s simple, they are conservative and will 100% vote Republican as soon as Trump leaves.

The net result is a move further right.

2/6/2020 12:21:52 PM

absolute insanity. Perez calling for a recanvass

https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/1225468833458245632

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 12:38 PM. Reason : useless]

2/6/2020 12:36:56 PM

^^you know you can ignore them right? just take their vote and be done with it. the retarded position is of course "nope we dont need em / fuck em." well guess what? republicans take plenty of minority votes simply to win and then ignore them.

even better they parade them around on TV as some sort of success story

2/6/2020 12:38:32 PM

That’s my point!

2/6/2020 12:39:10 PM

^^^^to be clear, we're saying the same thing. It's the difference be Bernie doing a fox News town hall and, I don't know, hiring Bret stephens as a campaign advisor. Reach out to those voters, but don't let them influence your policies.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 12:40 PM. Reason : 3]

2/6/2020 12:40:31 PM

^,^^ ok good. now can someone besides me shout down the assholes that take that position?

can dtr go into the earl bin of ignore?

2/6/2020 12:41:19 PM

Quote :

"I say Earl supports Trump because he supports him. Constantly capes for him no matter what, downplays the awful stuff and thinks he is some incalculable political genius despite obviously just being an impulsive twit. Notice I don’t say that about any other people on here are justifiably critical of Democrats."

TDS literally redefines the way people see the world. He now thinks
-Believing Russia is not a threat to us
-Believing Crimea is part of Russia
-Believing the US should stay out of the Ukraine situation
-Believing Russia and the regional players belong in Syria but the US has no reason to be there
-Believing Assad is not a threat to us


are all supporting Trump. He believes this even though its been common amongst antiinterventionalists since before Trump was around. Even if those views are misinformed, its not "supporting Trump"

Then theres this whole thing where you can't think anything Trump does is smart or you are supporting him. You can't think your enemy is smart? It seems idiotic to me that anyone could deny Trump (or his puppeteer) being a political genius. Look at all the shit he has overcome from the past 4 years and is continuously gaining power. Even if he did the most unthinkable actions. Someone who can get away with bad stuff is smart. Sniping people through the trunk of a car was fucking genius. Serial killers can be smart in the way they orchestrate evil shit. It doesn't mean you are supporting them by acknowledging the truth as you see it.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 12:49 PM. Reason : k]

2/6/2020 12:48:28 PM

Quote :

"absolute insanity. Perez calling for a recanvass https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/1225468833458245632"

Literally right before Bernie was about to pull ahead. Pretty funny string of coincidences but I'm sure it was all a bunch of mistakes haha

w/e he's gonna win. Just hope this doesn't affect his chances at a plurality.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 12:55 PM. Reason : .]

2/6/2020 12:55:03 PM

i thought they were just waiting for the paper results? lol

2/6/2020 12:58:15 PM

I get the Dem arguments for giving people like me the finger. I think there are arguments for courting us, too, but I don’t blame you for not. What I’m saying is that you can’t give us the finger AND act like we’re bad guys for giving you the finger back.

Quote :

"You said all that. Conclusion: Trump is a criminal and the worst POTUS ever. But Bernie is worse than that? Worse than the worst POTUS ever who is also a criminal? What? WTF is that? What is that Bernie has done/said which makes him worse than, according to you, someone who is a criminal and happens to be worst POTUS ever? "

There are a variety of reasons. Trump will he term limited; Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants; I want to discourage the Dems from going to crazytown like the GOP did, etc. A large part of it is also that if the two parties center themselves around Trumpism and Sanders/Warrenism, then that will push me into full-blown nihilism. If my calculus becomes that we are fucked and there is no likely path to recovery, then it becomes a simple matter of strictly looking out for #1...keeping intruders out of my financial accounts and gun safe for however long I remain in America.

2/6/2020 1:11:18 PM

Comparing typical social democracy, the ruling system in most other first world countries, to far right fascism, just makes you look like a complete fool. Imagine believing that a strong social safety net and empowerment of the working class equals the death of America. Pathetic and incredibly selfish belief system.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 1:20 PM. Reason : .]

2/6/2020 1:19:10 PM

Btw, four more years of Trump will push Dems further left and ensure an even more radical candidate in 2024. You want to avoid actual socialism? Vote for Bernie in the primary

2/6/2020 1:32:54 PM

daaave you trolling?

I thought you spent the last couple of pages ranting about conspiracies and posting differences between Black Hawk County vote tally issues, but when Tom Perez asks for a recount to ensure votes are summed up correctly, you insinuate its only because Bernie pulled ahead.

It's 100% on me but I value your comments here more than others since you actually volunteer for the Sanders campaign.

2/6/2020 1:40:51 PM

Quote :

"Tom Perez asks for a recount to ensure votes are summed up correctly, you insinuate its only because Bernie pulled ahead."

His initial tweet implied they were starting over immediately, but he issued a clarification saying the tally would continue. A lot people were confused at first.

2/6/2020 1:45:56 PM

Tom Perez has not earned trust, I'll take Dave's side there. But it is annoying the way he uses that action as proof that other actions are equally corrupt. It's much much easier for one person in a position of power to make a political calculation and take an action, vs a whole company, a state full of party workers and a boatload of caucus chairs to be in on some vast conspiracy.

Also maybe he's covering his ass for being wrong on satellite caucuses, but nate cohn is claiming IDP is calculating satellite SDEs for Bernie much more generously then Nates interpretation of the rules.

Quote :

"Returning to this, another area of uncertainty is the way the IDP has calculated the SDEs for the satellite caucuses, which is different than we expected. By our estimates, there's a net-4 SDE swing toward Bernie under the IDP method and that's a lot https://t.co/5FZLjoaPeY"

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 1:49 PM. Reason : R]

2/6/2020 1:47:48 PM

^, ^^ Understood, thanks for the clarification.

My first instinct (justified or not) against Bernie supporters that immediately leap to CONSPIRACY is to write them off. I'm trying to do a better job of listening/reading why they feel that way this cycle. Appreciate the response.

2/6/2020 1:56:22 PM

Quote :

"Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants"

Categorically false.

Any of us could spend the day documenting dumb shit he and his administration has already done. Your point is a weak excuse imo (or you don't have issues with what he has already done) in his first 3 years.

But here you go for starters

Quote :

"Trump rolled back numerous environmental protections, as well as reduced enforcement of existing regulations. He ended the Clean Power Plan, withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation, and urged for subsidies to increase fossil fuel production, calling man-made climate change a hoax. Trump failed in his efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but took numerous actions that hindered the functioning of the ACA, as well as sought to have the courts rule the entirety of the ACA unconstitutional. Despite pledges made as a candidate, President Trump sought substantial spending cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security Disability Insurance. He enacted a partial repeal of the Dodd-Frank Act that had previously imposed stricter constraints on banks in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered corporate and estate taxes permanently, and lowered most individual income tax rates temporarily while increasing them for some. He enacted tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and other goods, triggering retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, and a trade war with China. These tariffs adversely affected the U.S. economy. On the whole, the economy kept improving, following trends from the Obama presidency. However, the federal deficit soared under Trump due to spending increases and tax cuts. Trump's "America First" foreign policy has featured more unilateral American actions, disregarding the advice and support of many traditional allies while drawing the United States closer to others like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Despite pledges to reduce the U.S. military personnel deployed overseas, the number was essentially the same three years into Trump's presidency as they were at the end of Obama's. Trump's administration agreed to sell $110 billion of arms to Saudi Arabia, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and issued a controversial executive order denying entry into the U.S. to citizens from several Muslim-majority countries. His administration withdrew U.S. troops from northern Syria, allowing Turkey to attack American-allied Kurds. The Trump administration unilaterally decided to hold talks with North Korea, with Trump saying he and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un "fell in love." Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran Deal, and escalated the dispute with Iran by assassinating Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Trump's demand for federal funding of a U.S.–Mexico border wall resulted in the 2018–2019 government shutdown (the longest in American history) and followed with Trump's declaration of a national emergency regarding the U.S. southern border. He ended the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program which had provided temporary protection for undocumented immigrants brought into the U.S. as minors. The Trump administration implemented a family separation policy for migrants apprehended at the U.S.–Mexico border, controversially separating parents from their children, resulting in bipartisan condemnation and international outcry."

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/23/798809951/trump-administration-is-rolling-back-obama-era-protections-for-smaller-waterways

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 2:21 PM. Reason : also democrats have had plenty of recent opportunities to come for your guns and haven't]

2/6/2020 2:16:27 PM

Quote :

"I mean, if they want to vote for Bernie or whoever the nominee is, welcome aboard. But they should get no influence or anything they want. It’s simple, they are conservative and will 100% vote Republican as soon as Trump leaves."

Or we can all be sane rational people and declare open primaries stupid and idiotic.

The fact I can be an open Republican and vote in the Democratic primary or vice versa is the single most dumbest thing in our country's politics as currently practiced, and that's saying something.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 2:57 PM. Reason : /]

2/6/2020 2:56:23 PM

I was thinking that this discussion was regarding the general election, not open primaries.

That being said, I like being able to vote, as an independent, in either the democratic or republican primaries.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 3:03 PM. Reason : ]

2/6/2020 3:02:32 PM

Quote :

""Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants""

HAVE WE LEARNED NOTHING?

2/6/2020 3:11:50 PM

Quote :

"That being said, I like being able to vote, as an independent, in either the democratic or republican primaries."

I understand you do, but only Democrats should pick the Democratic Party's candidates and only Republicans should pick the Republican Party's candidates. There's some local GOP leadership in Upstate South Carolina telling people to vote for Sanders in their primary. Why do you think November 2020 Trump voters should have the right to pick Trump's main opponent?

2/6/2020 3:20:35 PM

Quote :

"My first instinct (justified or not) against Bernie supporters that immediately leap to CONSPIRACY is to write them off. I'm trying to do a better job of listening/reading why they feel that way this cycle. Appreciate the response."

I can understand feeling that way. You had to be paying close attention in 2016 to be aware of all of the shenanigans in the primaries (even Warren said things were unfair). Maybe Bernie supporters are a little too quick to jump to conclusions sometimes, but it's not because his they're all conspiracy theorists, it's that there are historical reasons to be suspicious.

2/6/2020 3:25:20 PM

Hahahahah. Axios is a steaming pile of both-sides horseshit but wow, how do you even make this mistake?

https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1225188682497290245?s=21

2/6/2020 4:02:44 PM

Ok this is pretty funny

Quote :

"The DNC establishment has prepared 49 more unique devilish twists for Bernie, one for each state. There's gonna be an underwater state, a spikey pit state, a state where Shadow Bernie chases him,"

https://twitter.com/OswaldHurlem/status/1225292303553593344?s=19

2/6/2020 4:22:19 PM

Look I won't lie, if Bernie turns out to be the nominee....that's going to be a hard sell for me. Biden? Pete? Probably wouldn't bat an eye. But that's no reason to shit on people like me just because we've voted Republican in the past. If that's going to be your reasoning, then that tells me you don't believe people can change.

I find it hard to believe that there are Democrats at this stage in the game that wouldn't vote (D) because their man/woman didn't get on the ballot. If they all hate Trump as much as they say they do, there shouldn't even be a question about who they would vote for. Are we worried that the Bernie bros are going to vote Trump if he doesn't make it?

After watching Designated Survivor, man I'd love an independent candidate like that guy. Oh well. It's tv.

2/6/2020 4:23:14 PM

So if people are nice to your feefees maybe you'll vote for bernie, but if people hurt your feefees then trump's not so bad

Got it

2/6/2020 4:30:26 PM

Quote :

"why do i have any interest communicating with a GOP idiot?"

If you don't want to communicate with people who disagree with you, why are you on this site?

It's not like we're even disagreeing about any point of doctrine at this point. Just about whether a fucked up caucus was good or bad.

Quote :

" fuck every one of these "never trump" blowhards who sat by as the party was radicalized over the last 30 years and now wants to pretend like they aren't part of the problem."

dtownral thinks that I have been complicit in radicalizing the Republican party since I was five years old, and now, having turned it into a right-wing populist machine, I am seeking to do the same to the Democratic party by suggesting that the Iowa caucus results may have helped Donald Trump.

Quote :

"It's folks like me, and grumpy, and others who are disillusioned with the current Republican party that you should be trying to court."

They certainly don't have to court me, and I don't really think they should be trying to court disillusioned Republicans, either. There's something to be said for not going out of your way to help drive them back into the Republican camp, though, and that's essentially what dtownral wants to do.

Quote :

"But, grumpy doesn't fit that box if he's being honest bc he's even said he would vote Bernie (I think?) (and maybe he votes all republican at local/state levels, who knows"

Not that it matters, but I will vote for Sanders if he's the nominee, and will likely vote straight-ticket Democrat for all positions.

2/6/2020 4:42:19 PM

Quote :

"if Bernie turns out to be the nominee....that's going to be a hard sell for me"

Why?

2/6/2020 4:43:05 PM

Bernie polls well nationally. He’ll win the rust belt back I think, won’t lose traditionally democratic states, even if does worse amongst the suburbs.

His electoral map is going to be different than Hillary’s, just like trumps was different than Romney’s.

2/6/2020 5:12:59 PM

Quote :

"Look I won't lie, if Bernie turns out to be the nominee....that's going to be a hard sell for me. Biden? Pete? Probably wouldn't bat an eye"

based on what policy differences between bernie and pete, for example (without looking!)?

2/6/2020 5:21:41 PM

Reeeaallly looking like they’re trying to avoid announcing Bernie as the winner or tied for winner in iowa. This is going to backfire.

2/6/2020 6:36:35 PM

Quote :

"If you don't want to communicate with people who disagree with you, why are you on this site?"

Best point made I've read here in some time. Well done.

Me personally, I'm a minor Republican office holder that hates Trump. I voted for Gary Johnson because I hated Trump and hated Clinton, and he was the only other person on my state's ballot. If Trump or Clinton resigned or died in October 2016, I gladly would've voted for Mike Pence or Tim Kaine for president. This time, I'll most likely vote for Biden if he's the nominee. Buttigieg I think has zero chance of winning, so have never considered him really even though he's from down the road. I know I'm not voting for Sanders or Warren if Democrats nominate one of them - I have my limits - so it's another vote for the Libertarian again in that case.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 9:04 PM. Reason : .]

2/6/2020 8:56:25 PM

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944?utm_source=digg

2/6/2020 9:13:54 PM

Filed under "Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants"

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-trump-administration-is-withholding-almost-1-billi-1841475959

2/6/2020 9:54:48 PM

Quote :

"Reeeaallly looking like they’re trying to avoid announcing Bernie as the winner or tied for winner in iowa. This is going to backfire."

100% precincts reporting that Bernie was behind by .1% and that Pete 'won'

2/6/2020 10:07:20 PM

^No they are not reporting 'pete won' the irregularities have not yet been corrected even though 100% are reporting. Those irregularities are all of the bernie votes that got changed. It will eventually come out that Bernie won.
https://news.yahoo.com/iowa-caucus-hasn-t-had-163949097.html
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/05/breaking-news/iowa-caucuses-democrats-release-92-of-results/

Quote :

"The Associated Press, whose race calls are considered official, said today it would not declare a winner in the Iowa caucus because of the tight margin and the irregularities in the caucus process. "

but ujustwait;s false post is definitely representative of the type of misinformation that is being spread. Misinformation that is boosting Pete in future states every minute this thing drags on.

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 10:24 PM. Reason : 'pete won']

2/6/2020 10:23:35 PM

New Press release from Bernie's campaign

Quote :

" “Tonight's release of data by the Iowa Democratic Party confirms Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Iowa caucus,” Jeff Weaver, Sanders campaign senior adviser, said in a statement. “We also feel confident that the discrepancies we’re providing tonight, in addition to those widely identified in the national media, mean that the SDE count will never be known with any kind of certainty. Given the rules changes we fought for that required the release of the popular vote count, SDEs are now an antiquated and meaningless metric for deciding the winner of the Iowa caucus.”"

[Edited on February 6, 2020 at 11:08 PM. Reason : go on]

2/6/2020 11:07:32 PM

I've seen a number of wrong counts against Pete too

In convention delegates, the only "win" factor that matters beyond fundraising and optics, looks to either be a 13-13 tie or 14-12 Pete, with Warren in a respectable 3rd (she's def gotten shafted on media coverage of the her strong showing)

2/6/2020 11:31:46 PM

New Hampshire

Can’t help think Biden is done. If he can’t win Iowa and nh what hope does he have? I feel Warren still could pull a Hail Mary though, she still has an energized base which I don’t perceive Biden as having.

2/6/2020 11:47:52 PM

I never really understood what a Bernie bro was until I saw
This on Twitter

Quote :

" Pete Buttigieg propagandizing people pisses me off more than anything else, I mean, you know, besides being a tool for the CIA and plotting with the DNC and corporate media to steal an election. twitter.com/CPDAction/stat…"

These people are looney. I can see them being a liability for Bernie sadly. Bernie to his credit doesn’t seem to egg these types of people on like trump does.

2/6/2020 11:52:27 PM

I wonder if that tweet is referring to the "medicare for all who want it" scam. Pete is a liar because he's sold people he's for medicare for all and against it at the same time with this paradoxical name for his policy.
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/2/iowa-caucuses-medicare-for-all-m4a-democratic-party

Quote :

"According to polling conducted by Edison Research, some 57 percent of Iowa caucusgoers favor a single-payer system that eliminates private insurance"

Pete stole a good part of that vote with his lies.

The rest of the post is obviously about him coordinating to claim victory at the start of the confusion and build momentum while the dust settles.

Wheres the lunacy? What are you challenging in that tweet?

2/7/2020 12:05:58 AM

Bernie won

https://twitter.com/heathergautney/status/1225615677446410241?s=21

2/7/2020 12:09:55 AM

I don't think he did though. That post only mentions the errors that benefit him, but even if he gains a lead on SDE, I think convention delegates still end up 13-13. I would prefer a Bernie win but I don't know why it's bad for one candidate to make false claims but good for another.

2/7/2020 7:07:21 AM

Quote :

"I wonder if that tweet is referring to the "medicare for all who want it" scam. Pete is a liar because he's sold people he's for medicare for all and against it at the same time with this paradoxical name for his policy. "

That was Bill Clinton's entire political career was doing that.

Second, the Jacobin is about as credible as Breitbart.

2/7/2020 7:22:53 AM

Quote :

"I don't think he did though. That post only mentions the errors that benefit him, but even if he gains a lead on SDE, I think convention delegates still end up 13-13. I would prefer a Bernie win but I don't know why it's bad for one candidate to make false claims but good for another."

Because this is how U.S. politics works. If the guy I like does something sketchy, it's okay. If the guy I don't like does something sketchy, outrage. The ends justify the means.

For delegate counts, throughout this primary season I will reference everyone to the great Green Papers site. They show you the calculations based on final numbers of how delegates get assigned.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/IA-D#0203

Based on the 100% reporting results as of 7th February, 6:47 EST:

CD1 - Buttigieg 2, Sanders 2, Biden 2, Warren 1
CD2 - Sanders 3, Buttigieg 2, Warren 2
CD3 - Buttigieg 3, Sanders 2, Warren 2, Biden 1
CD4 - Buttigieg 2, Sanders 1, Biden 1, Klobuchar 1

Statewide

PLEO (stands for Party Leaders and Elected Officials, or "Superdelegates") - Buttigieg 2, Sanders 1, Warren 1, Biden 1
At-Large - Buttigieg 3, Sanders 3, Warren 2, Biden 1

So adding them all up:

Buttigieg 14, Sanders 12, Warren 8, Biden 6, Klobuchar 1

If Sanders takes the lead in statewide SDE (he's shown to be 1.5197 behind), it would switch the PLEO statewide delegates from 2-1 Buttigieg to 2-1 Sanders, which would make it 13-13. None of the CD's are close enough to changing to where it would change delegate counts, either for the lead or overcoming another candidate that has largest remainder.

(I kind of wish we had this system nationally for allocating presidential electors based on d'Hondt or Largest Remainder. It would make Electoral College a more fair system - your margin of victory becomes important, not just that you got a plurality. I have a spreadsheet going back to 1992 showing what the results for all of them would be.)

[Edited on February 7, 2020 at 8:13 AM. Reason : /]

2/7/2020 7:46:17 AM

Quote :

"I have a spreadsheet going back to 1992 showing what the results for all of them would be.)"

Respect!!



.....I think? Lmao.

2/7/2020 8:44:07 AM

Quote :

"Can’t help think Biden is done. If he can’t win Iowa and nh what hope does he have?"

States that actually have black people in them.

His hope is that he can cash in all his Obama credibility in South Carolina and the rest of the south. My hope is that he fails to do so, because winning those states isn't enough to give him a clear mandate for the nomination, but it is enough to keep this thing contested for a long time, and the sooner we get everybody working towards the same goal, the better.

2/7/2020 9:09:21 AM

Quote :

" I don't think he did though. That post only mentions the errors that benefit him, but even if he gains a lead on SDE, I think convention delegates still end up 13-13. I would prefer a Bernie win but I don't know why it's bad for one candidate to make false claims but good for another. "

Media has been reporting Buttiegig ahead because he has the lead in SDEs (a meaningless intermediate metric). If the totals are corrected, Bernie will lead in both SDEs and the popular vote. Bernie won.

2/7/2020 9:57:08 AM

^^ My goal at the time was I was wanting to do every election back until 1860 and write up something kind of academic about it. That's a lot of work and I need a better way to manipulate and auto-populate data on Excel.

Here were the 12 methods I came up with.

Quote :

"National Level Numbers Method 1: Purely Proportional (Highest Remainder Method) Method 2: Must Receive 1 Full Electoral Vote in Method 1 in order to Receive 1 Method 3: D'Hondt National (Highest Average Method) State Level Numbers Method 4: Proportional (Highest Remainder Method) Method 5: Must Receive 1 Full Electoral Vote in Method 4 in order to Receive 1 Method 6: Proportional, Winner Must Receive at least 1 more Electoral Vote than 2nd Method 7: Must Receive 1 Full Electoral Vote in Method 6 in order to Receive 1 Method 8: D'Hondt State (Highest Average Method) Convention-style Allocation Method 9: Receive a majority of a state's vote, you get all Electoral Votes; if no one receives a majority, everyone above a 15% cutoff line receives proportional allocation Method 10: Same as Method 9 except it's a 10% cutoff line Method 11: Same as Method 9 except it's a 5% cutoff line Method 12: Current Electoral College"

In all 12 methods there's no way to get Clinton to 270 in 2016. The only way Gore in 2000 gets to 270 is under convention-style delegate apportionment.

The current Electoral College is the only method that produces a winner in 1992.

The elections I really want to do are 1980, 1968, 1948, and 1912. 1860 would be fun in theory.

Minor parties in proportional state allocations would really focus on the big states. To get a vote in California you need a little less than 2% for instance. It would also drive a more national campaign for the two main parties.

2/7/2020 10:01:21 AM