i dont know why i like companies that lose money...

but what do you guys think about LVLT?

2/8/2007 12:39:56 PM

I think they're headed in the right direction in the long run, but who knows how long it'll be before they get back to profitability. The CEO is restructuring, and making headway in debt reduction (a big chunk of the last Q's loss came from a one time charge in debt reduction), so there's some promise, but also a lot of risk.

Something about them reminds me of Qwest.

2/8/2007 1:12:55 PM

Anyone ever look at LACO? I've been sitting on some shares for about 18 months now and can't decide if I should hold onto it or get out.

2/8/2007 3:26:36 PM

Off hand (just glancing at the Yahoo finance page), I would say you should find somewhere else to put your money. It's not doing anything for you with LACO.

2/8/2007 6:03:39 PM

^ yeah, its just such a cheap stock i really wouldn't have a problem keeping it tucked away for a few years in the hopes that it would climb back above 16

i mean, who doesn't like indian casinos?

2/8/2007 6:48:40 PM

Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about investing


I'm curious tho, do you guys ever buy stocks based on expected corrections? Like if a negative earnings report or negative analyst report comes out, and the stock dives too much in your opinion...do you ever swoop in and buy expecting a correction the next day? If so do you sell for the short gain or just chalk it up to buying a more long term stock at a good value?

2/9/2007 10:53:55 AM

I have in the past. I held it for a year so I'd pay long term cap gains.

2/9/2007 10:56:29 AM

yeah, market timing is a crapshoot... you win some, and you lose some, but nearly impossible to gain an edge with without having insider info.

I sort of did it with TIE this week. I noticed a pattern of huge jumps followed by a pullback.

It jumped 7% and i sold it at 34.93, then bought it again the next day when it dropped 2.5%

now i'm back up a few more cents, but nothing earth shattering. it could jump another 5% on monday, or could drop that much. Fundamentally, the stock *should* keep moving up, but given it's historic volatility, who knows.

I would have been better off buying MRVL like i originally planned to.

2/9/2007 11:55:54 AM

Quote :

"Like if a negative earnings report or negative analyst report comes out, and the stock dives too much in your opinion...do you ever swoop in and buy expecting a correction the next day?"

I'll often buy if a larger cap stock that I like takes a hit.

Although I usually just do some kind of options play and close after the stock bounces back. About a year ago COH took a big hit and I bought $1200 in naked calls. The next day the stock climbed and as a result the option premium increased and I was able to sell for $2400 - 100% return in under 24 hours (which is still my record).

The same can be done when a stock jumps too high. I sold AAPL calls the day that the iPhone came out. I bought them back for less about 2 hours later after the price had fallen somewhat. That was nice because I didn't spend any money to get in, but I made some when I got out.

[Edited on February 9, 2007 at 2:57 PM. Reason : .]

2/9/2007 2:56:24 PM

Today is sucking pretty bad for me.

2/9/2007 3:30:33 PM

im doing good with SYX
GRMN has gone up some too

2/9/2007 3:54:40 PM

GRMN made me yesterday

But today sucks.

2/9/2007 4:00:40 PM

everything is down today and fridays are slow regardless. no worries here

2/9/2007 4:04:20 PM

anyone have NTRZ.OB

my buddy just made $5k from them. bought at $1.55

2/9/2007 4:05:55 PM

Quote :

"^ yeah, its just such a cheap stock i really wouldn't have a problem keeping it tucked away for a few years in the hopes that it would climb back above 16"

I think you answered your own question You're savvy enough to do something with that money elsewhere.

Hopefully today is the beginning of a correction...

2/9/2007 4:06:03 PM

the selloff is coming. i can feel it. i may be wrong, but it feels like the first week or two of last May. i don't know if this correction will be as deep or long as the one from May-July of 2006.

i will probably post my year's picks after about week or two. i don't want to say anything before a selloff.

a couple of points:

- i was wrong to sell XLE and ILF a month ago. should have held until now, but better to take some profit than get hit unexpectedly

- today i restarted my fling with CDE, and got into SWC as well

- IAU and OIL may be a nice place to hang out in until the bull returns

[Last night the guys on Fast Money said if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked by Iran, we're in a world of shit. Lets just hope the collective genius within us that was so afraid of das communiztz, put in the White House someone who is more of a diplomat than a cowboy.]

see this
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_strait_of_hormuz_2004.jpg

- tech and biotech will likely lead the next bull (maybe i should've waited a month or so to buy CSCO), and 2007 will be a net positive year

- i probably can't safely talk about biotechs, but i'll see what i can do





[Edited on February 9, 2007 at 4:15 PM. Reason : [Edited on February 9, 2007 at 4:15 PM. Reason : link]]

2/9/2007 4:14:29 PM

^^ durrrrr on my part. good call.

^ i've sold calls on just about everything for this month, so most of my stocks that climbed high are going to be gone in one week.

2/9/2007 4:18:10 PM

how does everyone feel about SUNW?

2/9/2007 4:26:41 PM

starting to wonder if NYX was a good buy. just downgraded today by goldman sachs

2/9/2007 8:51:30 PM

haha...It's not every day that GM is the bright spot in your portfolio.

2/9/2007 9:19:13 PM

1 year (26 issues) subscription to Forbes for $3

http://slickdeals.net/?pno=8974&lno=1&afsrc=1

2/11/2007 10:02:36 AM

^i bet they sell your info to everyone

2/11/2007 1:07:15 PM

this week should be interesting

2/11/2007 11:49:54 PM

One sentence summary: watch your emerging markets investments closely.

India overheats
Feb 1st 2007
From The Economist print edition


India cannot run as fast as China without further reform

Quote :

"THE Indian tiger is on the prowl. This week, in an apt piece of symbolism, Tata Steel, which dates back to the days of the Raj, leapt into the league of top producers when it bought Britain's Corus, which includes the steelmaking remnants of the old imperial power. Nor is Tata alone: younger Indian companies such as Infosys and Wipro are storming international markets. Meanwhile, the world's business people and investors queue up to lavish money on India's talented engineers and computer scientists, The roar from Delhi is echoing across Asia. After peevish years cast as China's underperforming neighbour, the huntress is now in hot pursuit. Over the past year the Indian economy has grown by an impressive 9.2%, not far behind China's 10.4%. At some point this year India's growth rate could even outpace China's; and if you measure things by purchasing power parity, India should soon overtake Japan and become the third-biggest economy, behind only America and China. No wonder an increasing number of Indian businessmen, policymakers and economists are basking in the belief that their country is burning bright having at last broken free of its bureaucratic cage. An economy once famous for the “Hindu rate of growth”, of 3% a year, was opened up by the reforms of the 1990s, many of them pushed through by the man who is now prime minister, Manmohan Singh. His government's latest five-year plan assumes that India can sustain average growth of 9%. Who can doubt “Incredible India”, to borrow the slogan of its tourism campaign? Tweaking the long tail Fast growth is essential to pull millions of Indians out of poverty, so it is sad to pour cold water on this story. But that is precisely what is needed when there are so many alarming signs of overheating (see article). Across India prices are rising fast, factories are at full capacity, loans are piling up. Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spurred competition, forced firms to become more productive and boosted India's trend—or sustainable—rate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit is almost certainly lower than the government's one. Historic data would suggest a figure not much above 7%—well below China's 9-10%. When you mention overheating, many analysts point towards China. Yet India displays far more symptoms of the disease. Inflation has risen to 6-7% (compared with 2.8% in China); a record 99% of Indian firms report that they are operating above their optimal capacity; and credit is expanding at an annual rate of 30%, twice as fast as in China. Unlike China, India also has a widening current-account deficit—a classic sign of overheating, as domestic output fails to keep pace with surging demand. And if you are looking for a stockmarket bubble, Indian share prices have risen more than four-fold over the past four years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a hard landing will become inevitable. The Reserve Bank of India has been too timid in cooling down domestic demand: although one interest rate was raised this week by a quarter point, the overall rise in rates over the past two and a half years has not even kept up with consumer-price inflation. But the main focus of the government's attention should be on supply—and dismantling the many barriers that keep its speed limit below China's. So far, reform in India has focused on setting its inventive private sector free from the world's most fearsome bureaucracy. This has unleashed entrepreneurial talent, but more change is needed. Now is the time to tackle the public sector itself. Infrastructure, such as roads and power, and public services, such as education and drinking water, are woefully inadequate and limit growth. Even as the economy has been booming, many public services have worsened. It seems incongruous that somebody can own a mobile phone, yet has to waste hours queuing for drinking water. India's top computer scientists are feted around the world, yet most children in rural areas lack the basic education needed to find more productive work. Around half of all Indian women are illiterate, compared with a ratio of around one in seven in China. Singh's songsheet India's rulers have two bad excuses for not dealing with those roads, schools and hospitals. The first is theoretical. Many Indian economic commentators say that further structural reforms, though desirable, are not essential to keep the economy growing at 8% or more because of the “demographic dividend”. A fast-growing working population and a falling dependency rate (thanks to a lower birth rate) will ensure more workers, more saving and hence more investment. India's demographic structure is indeed starting to look more like that in East Asia when its growth took off. But this mechanistic view of growth assumes that demography is destiny and that economic policies do not matter. In fact, open markets, education and investment, especially in infrastructure, were the three chief ingredients of East Asia's success. Population growth by itself does not add to prosperity, unless young people are educated and new jobs are created. India needs to reform its absurdly restrictive labour laws which hold back the expansion of manufacturing particularly. The second excuse for doing nothing is practical: there is little room to spend more on schools and hospitals. India already has one of the biggest budget deficits among the large emerging economies (as much as 8% of GDP going by the widest measure). In fact, plenty can be achieved by reform, rather than just spending. Private investors are hesitant about putting money in infrastructure, because the regulators are not independent enough of populist politicians to guarantee a decent return. If these things can be tackled, India can indeed match China's growth. Mr Singh remains a reformer, but his government relies on the support of the communist parties and, with today's prosperity, there is no stomach to take them on. The worry is that today's overheating will need to boil over before that mindset changes. "

2/12/2007 9:43:37 AM

i am growing weary of IFN and closed-end funds in general. they seem to be selling their own stock and paying dividends with the proceeds, instead of giving proceeds from gains in held stocks. looking to get out of IFN at $44.

2/12/2007 11:45:57 AM

went ahead and monetized my CTSH.

will probably sit on some cash for the time being.

2/12/2007 3:47:23 PM

yeah, i'm trying to make it to the 1-year mark on mine to dodge the extra capital gains hit.

2/12/2007 4:03:02 PM

That's pretty much what I'm thinking. Though I fully expect it to underperform for the next couple of weeks.

2/12/2007 4:11:31 PM

http://brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=461337

CREE?

not particularly impressed with the stock, but at least it's already weak, and such a contract would be a pretty big deal.

2/13/2007 7:30:55 AM

CREE is the current leader in bright LED-based flashlights: twice as bright\as Philip's Luxeon product, as shown here (scroll down to the last graph):
http://www.flashlightreviews.com/reviews/fenix_p1d.htm

Prior to CREE, Philips Lumileds was the only significant supplier of high-end white LEDs. However, Philips isn't resting, either, and appears to have doubled CREE's recent doubling:
http://flashlightnews.org/story566.shtml

With CREE you're certainly buying into a company that has a quality product-- at least for now. This seems to be a fast-moving field and the technology leapfroging reminds me of drug companies: fortunes can rise and fall quickly due to competition. It would be a highly speculative investment.

2/13/2007 9:44:01 AM

got out of IFN at 43. got out of RDY with enough of a gain


i can smell the correction coming

2/13/2007 10:12:22 AM

^^ yeah, i'm familier with Cree. my buddy used to work for them (precision engineering). i just wonder if having a couple of big local contracts like that might spur some growth in the stock prices.

2/13/2007 12:19:11 PM

sold all my BIDU at 116 - will reenter at lower price

2/13/2007 12:35:08 PM

today's run up is making me look like a paranoid idiot...still, i think somewhat of correction is pending and actually healthy in the lon run.

it wouldn't hurt to repatriate some your investments out of emerging markets and into tech & healthcare.



[Edited on February 13, 2007 at 6:07 PM. Reason : sdfgdfgfgsdfg]

2/13/2007 6:04:13 PM

woohoo

TIE up quite a bit after earnings... breaking the $35 resistance point and then some.

glad i bought back in now!

2/13/2007 6:24:55 PM

Hopefully TIE goes up some more.
I'm also praying that GOOG stops the fall it's been on.

2/14/2007 9:24:38 AM

i kinda wish i listened to sru and sold IFN last week

I'm in it for the long haul though, so it'll be back up.

2/14/2007 9:27:40 AM

alright GRMN!

up 11% at the opening bell!

2/14/2007 9:33:46 AM

damn GRMN

too bad i sold calls on all of my shares at 55

2/14/2007 9:43:06 AM

today IFN's up 4%

go figure.

crazy market.

2/14/2007 10:19:05 AM

i think i'm going to be this thread's case study on why buy and hold strategies are better than active trading

2/14/2007 10:55:05 AM

^ thats been my plan as of late as well

2/14/2007 10:57:17 AM

I've been thinking that right now might be the time to buy some more GOOG. It's been doing this "500, drop, 500, drop" thing recently. Could have made a bit of money on that...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GOOG&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[Edited on February 14, 2007 at 11:49 AM. Reason : stupid yahoo and their images not being actual image links...]

2/14/2007 11:48:21 AM

stopped out of TIE @ 34.82

2/14/2007 1:43:45 PM

AMD is starting to look attractive now that it's dropped a lot since last year.

2/14/2007 2:54:32 PM

VSEA

Guess should work out well tomorrow, too.

[Edited on February 14, 2007 at 4:05 PM. Reason : ]

2/14/2007 3:53:55 PM

^ very nice

2/14/2007 4:04:16 PM

BIDU running up afterhours...i don't know what to make of it

2/14/2007 4:57:10 PM

im back in BIDU


WHY CANT I QUIT YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2/14/2007 5:03:26 PM

yeah, i'm thinking about AMD too.

2/14/2007 5:30:28 PM