Quote :

"The fed is expected to raise rate"

Eventually, right? Like, by 2020 they might be at (an official) .5%? Like how they raised them in time this past decade to keep a lid on housing? They are just jawboning now to try and keep inflation in check without actually doing anything different. With housing still in the pooper do you really believe the Fed is going to take a loss on all the worthless dreck they are holding on their balance sheet? Do you think they'll just stuff it back on the banks, see them take the loss, see the economy double dip, and see their power eroded? Not a damn chance. This ongoing monetization will continue right up until it's way past too late.

Quote :

"the job market keeps looking better,"

Yeah, and pissing in the ocean adds to it's volume. The job market is still anemic and likely will be up until the next crash.

Quote :

"the standard of living certainly hasn't been measurably affected on the aggregate"

rofl, "on the aggregate". Just so long as a fat cat has it even better than before despite the proles, time to sound the all is clear bell!

4/4/2011 7:02:45 AM

^ thanks for saving me time responding to kris. what a fantasy world he lives in.


Yeah the Fed is going to raise rates anyday now man. I bet that discussion is currently underway.

We should definitely be up to 0.5% or 0.75% by 2013 or so.

The Fed can't raise rates because then they eat a huge loss on QE,the govt goes insolvent, and housing collapses. Not to mention all of our "jobs recovery" is being artificially created by QE 2.

The upcoming bust is just going to be worse because of all this shit they keep throwing at our stagnant economy. Just let the fucking recession happen, why are we so hell bent on blowing this thing up exactly?

[Edited on April 4, 2011 at 7:12 AM. Reason : a]

4/4/2011 7:06:45 AM

Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker told CNBC Friday that he "wouldn't be surprised" if the central bank raised interest rates before the end of the year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42363070

Labor Department figures last week showed the jobless rate fell in March to a two-year low of 8.8 percent, while private payrolls rose by 230,000 after a February increase of 240,000, the strongest back-to-back gains since 2006. Employment growth was widespread, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s view that the recovery is on “firmer footing.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-04/u-s-employment-index-increases-for-sixth-straight-month.html

Quote :

"time to sound the all is clear bell"

I never said that, but it's outright lying to do as face is doing and saying things are getting worse, when they are getting better.

4/4/2011 12:22:56 PM

Actually things are getting worse.

Inflation expectations are rising, current inflation is rising and wages are stagnant.

Consumer spending is rising, debt levels are rising, job creation is still barely rising, gdp is still barely rising, the trade gap is widening.

Things are clearly getting more structually imbalanced by the day but you point to minor data points like a monthly job report to try to deny it.

Oh yes and the dollar is STILL crashing even while japan prints trillions of yen.

You are in a deep stage of denial

4/4/2011 1:52:02 PM

Quote :

"Consumer spending is rising"

That's a good thing, but consumer spending relative to income is much lower than we have seen in the past.

Quote :

"debt levels are rising"

Consumer debt?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704823004576192602754071800.html

Quote :

"job creation is still barely rising"

See above post.

Quote :

"gdp is still barely rising"

Due to the spikes in gas and food prices.

4/4/2011 2:58:34 PM

#1 consumer spending rising is definitely not a good thing. We need savings and production to save the country. Spending more money because oil and food cost more is a bad thing. Whoever said oh boy apples cost more this week I can't wait to spend more on groceries?

#2 consumer debt is not being paid down it is being written off. Consumer debt paydown hasn't happened at all you can reference the 100 studies out there that prove it

#3 I was referring to govt debt which is currently exploding


#4 raise rates are you kidding? 47pct of treasuries were bought by dealers and 53pct of those ten bought by the fed. They are fighting higher rates tooth and nail by sneaky bond purchases. Why would they raise rates that's illogical

You are blatantly incorrect on these premises

4/4/2011 3:19:15 PM

Quote :

"consumer spending rising is definitely not a good thing. We need savings and production to save the country."

Implying that because consumer spending has gone up, savings must have gone down. This is not true, both could rise, or both could fall, there is no reason they would neccesarily tie together. Ironically production would be correlated to consumer spending but in the opposite way that you are implying as production obviously tends to follow consumer spending.

Quote :

"consumer debt is not being paid down it is being written off"

What does that matter? Debt is still decreasing.

Quote :

"you can reference the 100 studies out there that prove it"

Actually, you can't reference one study, or much of anything that isn't your own incoherent ramblings.

Quote :

"Why would they raise rates that's illogical"

To fight inflation. I'd say it's obvious.

4/4/2011 3:53:56 PM

to fight inflation? Are you mental? They are trying to create inflation as hard as humanly possible and you think they want to fight it?

Consumer spending is not a GOOD thing. There are scenarios where it could be a good thing perhaps but this certainly isnt one of them. If consumer spending is rising while savings is falling and incomes are stagnant that is a bad thing. What are food prices up 43%? Jesus christ stop being so dense.

Consumers cant pay down their debt it is being WRITTEN OFF. There are 100 studies on this. You must know this by now.

Someone help me I go mad telling you this same shit over and over.

4/4/2011 8:00:41 PM

Quote :

"They are trying to create inflation as hard as humanly possible and you think they want to fight it?"

You're a mind reader now?

Quote :

"Consumer spending is not a GOOD thing."

Sure it is, it shows confidence in the economy, and trading money for goods is essentially all our economy is, the more of it that happens, the larger our economy is.

Quote :

"f consumer spending is rising while savings is falling"

It's not "falling", it's pretty much the same from last year, and way up from years before.

Quote :

"Consumers cant pay down their debt it is being WRITTEN OFF."

Again, what does that matter?

4/4/2011 8:30:57 PM

not a mind reader, i just base my statements off what the fed is currently doing not what they "intend to do when inflation gets rough"

why does it matter if people pay down debt? I dont know because its important to note that no one is actively doing it? So the "consumer is paying down debt" is a totally dead issue?


Nope cowboy, savings is falling.

Spending is rising.

Incomes are stagnant.

This is motherfucking doomsday. And global growth is going nuts and we still cant grow out of this. Look at the 1yr Tbill interest rate chart for the past 5, 10, 20, 50 years. we are done.

Deflation is our only hope to survive and the fed wont let us have it

4/5/2011 12:38:10 AM

Quote :

"I dont know because its important to note that no one is actively doing it?"

That's irrelevant to debt levels.

4/5/2011 12:41:24 AM

I think its cute that you think you know more than warren buffet and bill gross and erskine bowles on the subject of us debt.

And its certainly not irrelevant to note that consumers are making zero headway in paying down debt

4/5/2011 12:51:27 PM

Quote :

"I think its cute that you think you know more than warren buffet and bill gross and erskine bowles on the subject of us debt."

I'm sure that warren buffet and erskine bowles would agree with your statement that the economic apocalypse is coming and that the wisest investment portfolio is heavy on canned food and bullets, well, no, wait, actually they're not batshit insane, so they would actually probably disagree with you on most things.

Quote :

"And its certainly not irrelevant to note that consumers are making zero headway in paying down debt"

Who cares if they are paying it down? A person with $100 has $100, it doesn't matter if they got that money giving HJs in an alley or they found it in their shoe, either way they have $100.

4/5/2011 8:24:22 PM

If it makes you feel any better Im starting to be pretty confident that we're in 18-24 month territory.

This thing is just accelerating way too fast. The Japanese and Middle East crisis are enormous catalysts ripping us apart right now.

4/5/2011 8:32:25 PM

I think its cute that you think you know more than warren buffet and bill gross and erskine bowles on the subject of us debt.

4/5/2011 8:59:47 PM

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/rep-ryan-obama-s-budget-path-do-nothing


Hey look we're screwed. CBO says no way the economy can go on after 2037. When you consider they are probably being 10-20 years too conservative as always, it really illustrates my point.

4/6/2011 7:31:39 PM

Haha, you really shouldn't bring up Bill Gross in this instance. PIMCO has been dumping US treasuries like nobody's business.

4/6/2011 7:36:46 PM

Pimco Total Return the largest bond fund in the world owns ZERO US treasury bonds in fact.

4/6/2011 10:07:26 PM

Quote :

"you really shouldn't bring up Bill Gross in this instance. PIMCO has been dumping US treasuries like nobody's business."

No, I should still bring him up because he's not batshit insane. If he thought like face did he would have no money that was not invested in concrete bunkers, canned goods, and weapons.

4/7/2011 12:32:24 AM

thats a pretty weird generalization since nearly 100% of my money is invested in stocks/etfs.

Shit is about to hit the fan though. Im trying to figure out exactly what my plan should be but Im really losing time. Things have gotten just plain terrible in the past few months, dont you agree?

4/7/2011 1:04:08 AM

Quote :

"thats a pretty weird generalization"

It's not a generalization. You have literally said such things on several occasions.

Quote :

"Things have gotten just plain terrible in the past few months"

Not at all, what is so bad in the last month? Things haven't changed significantly either way. Your ability to ignore reality and make it into what you want it to be is what makes you so crazy.

4/7/2011 9:36:49 AM

Get out of the market now! The GOP is going to cause an even bigger economic crash than Bush manufactured.

4/7/2011 10:10:00 PM

Well we are certainly going to have a huge crash in the standards of living in the US.

But I don't think we'll necessairly have a huge crash in the stock market. Printing money makes the stock market go up in nominal terms even as it may be declining in real terms.

Also, the world is growing at a historical rate. Some of our companies can't help but thrive when huge markets with pent up demand are opening.

But just because Apple is selling IPODS to people named Xang doesn't mean your standard of living won't fall dramatically in this dollar crisis we're experiencing.

4/8/2011 12:19:27 AM

Quote :

"Some of our companies can't help but thrive when huge markets with pent up demand are opening."

Where did that demand come from? Think about it, you may lose some of that pessimism you make yourself have.

Quote :

"But just because Apple is selling IPODS to people named Xang doesn't mean your standard of living won't fall dramatically in this dollar crisis we're experiencing."

Apple selling those Ipods is what keeps the dollar going.

4/8/2011 12:32:03 AM

Just because Apple is an American company doesn't mean their success benefits all Americans equally.

And our current trade deficit is nearly $50 billion/month.

How many more Ipods do they plan on selling to balance that for us?

4/8/2011 12:40:08 AM

Quote :

"Just because Apple is an American company doesn't mean their success benefits all Americans equally."

It would take some form of communism to obtain that.

Quote :

"How many more Ipods do they plan on selling to balance that for us?"

Why should it be balanced?

4/8/2011 5:23:49 PM

I hate having to explain this to you.

Do you understand how trade deficits work?

One country sends us goods... we don't have enough goods they demand in return so we send them IOUs. That is debt that will have to be paid back later.

So what happens when they say we're not really interested in debt. We want assets.

That's when we start selling national parks and landmarks to them. What will the white house appraise for? A couple million? Not going to be enough.

Living standards are getting ready to plunge. Anyone feeling the pinch yet?

It's all falling apart.

4/11/2011 8:25:44 PM

For such a slavish conservative you seem to be hung up on trade deficits but for all the wrong reasons.

4/11/2011 9:00:18 PM

Quote :

"One country sends us goods... we don't have enough goods they demand in return so we send them IOUs"

No one trades something for nothing, we do have something that they demand, IOUs.

Quote :

"That is debt that will have to be paid back later."

Sure, in US dollars.

Quote :

"So what happens when they say we're not really interested in debt. We want assets."

To them our debt is an asset. If demand for our treasury notes goes down (which is what I think you're trying to say), then the US would likely begin to get more serious about repaying it's debt, similar to what happened in some places in europe.

Quote :

"That's when we start selling national parks and landmarks to them"

What? That's ridiculous. Why would they want them? Most landmarks and national parks lose money. If it weren't for their historical value, we wouldn't pay to keep them up.

4/11/2011 10:28:19 PM

Quote :

"No one trades something for nothing, we do have something that they demand, IOUs."

Yes, people all over China are working 14 hours of day for pieces of paper. They wake up everyday thinking how lucky they are to get a piece of paper that say "we'll get you back later man". One day they will demand Ipods, food, gold, materials, services, etc.

What happens then tough guy? What happens when we have to pay the Chinese in real goods, materials, etc? I'll give you a hint, our living standards go down.

Quote :

"Sure, in US dollars."

You're right on this point. We duped the shit out of them the past couple of decades. But that's coming to an end. We sheared the fucking sheep by printing money irresponsibly and paying them back with worthless dollars while we laughed and peed on their leg Greg Maddux style.

But that's almost over. That's the point.

Quote :

"To them our debt is an asset. If demand for our treasury notes goes down (which is what I think you're trying to say), then the US would likely begin to get more serious about repaying it's debt, similar to what happened in some places in europe."

Our debt was considered an asset. Now that the dollar is down 15% in the past 10 months perhaps they are considering other assets... like gold, oil, steel, copper, etc. Maybe they aren't fooled by our debt anymore. You realize China had a trade deficit this month themselves, right? Because they are busy hoarding materials and real wealth. Why do they need more paper?

Quote :

"What? That's ridiculous. Why would they want them? Most landmarks and national parks lose money. If it weren't for their historical value, we wouldn't pay to keep them up."

Yeah you're right. National parks as currently run do lose money. Which is why we won't get much for them. The White House and Lincoln Monument aren't worth all that much either. I hope we at least get a lot for Alaska when we sell that.

[Edited on April 12, 2011 at 12:34 AM. Reason : a]

4/12/2011 12:32:56 AM

Use whale blubber candles instead of electricity, switch out the car you use to get to work for a bike, and take your kids college savings and give it to government in tax hikes.


Did I miss anything Obama just requested?


This all sounds like a really bad idea but there's no way Mr. Rich Hussein Obama doesn't have my best interest in mind. Let me blindly send my paycheck to him. Also I'd like to auction off my valuables and contribute the proceeds to the campaign he just started to be President in 2012. HOPE HOPE HOPE HOPE

4/17/2011 1:52:18 AM

If market conditions had been ideal, the Dow Jones would be at 20K.

4/17/2011 2:04:28 AM

Quote :

"Yes, people all over China are working 14 hours of day for pieces of paper."

Actually they are:

Quote :

"What happens when we have to pay the Chinese in real goods, materials, etc?"

The normal thing that happens anytime demand shifts, the price of goods would rise. They will sell our debt then buy goods with it.

Quote :

"I'll give you a hint, our living standards go down."

How so?

Quote :

"Our debt was considered an asset."

It still is, it especially as it recently proved itself in economic downturns.

It's strange how you make all these assertions about the economic apocalypse but fail to actually explain the mechanism that would cause it.

4/17/2011 11:13:57 AM

http://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/index.php/2011/04/16/apr-16-weekend-report/

4/17/2011 11:19:36 AM

Here comes the crash, here comes the crash.


S&P just downgraded the credit outlook. They're always a few years behind on the times, so we're clearly getting pretty close

Sucks that all the BRICS have decided to stop using dollars now. Sure would be nice to export inflation instead of eating it

4/18/2011 10:55:21 AM

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704004004576270693061767996.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Funny how once obama was in office, the deficit balloned from 2-5% (2003-2008) to 11% in 2009 alone. This plus the piss poor leadership that has led to a completely partisan debate in place of an actual budget is why the S&P shit on us and why the stock market is falling right now.

[Edited on April 18, 2011 at 11:50 AM. Reason : jl]

4/18/2011 11:47:19 AM

You do realize the 2009 budget was signed by Bush in October 2008, right? Add in the reduction in tax revenue from a heavy recession and that gives you a deficit that Obama did not create in the first place.

The piss poor leadership is subjective, but you can't argue that Obama started us on this huge deficit trend. These things take years to create and the Republicans totally blew it before Obama was even elected.

4/19/2011 1:24:53 PM

^so you cant blame him for INCREASING spending? (from the current shitty GOP levels of W)

hmmm, im pretty sure you can.

4/19/2011 2:46:17 PM

^^ Actually, if I recall correctly, what Bush signed was a temporary spending measure. It was Obama in February that budgeted most of 2009. He signed it within weeks of the stimulus bill.

4/19/2011 3:03:24 PM

^^ The recession continued deep into Obama's first year which means there was less tax revenue than in 2008 and probably 2010 as well. Even if he had frozen spending, it would still be possible to increase the deficit (which I'm pretty sure is what we're talking about here. Not just spending.) So no, I don't attribute the huge increase in the deficit solely to Obama. There's more spending, but there's also drastically less tax revenue which you simply must take into account when discussing the deficit. He had no control over that.

^ I don't know if that's true or not, but the temporary budget would still go on the 2009 budget. I'm willing to bet it was a political trick Bush played to distance himself from the budget. Either way, it would be shameful to pin the 2009 budget on Obama considering Bush pushed through TARP on his way out which is roughly the same size as Obama's stimulus spending. The budget only goes through October though, so even if Obama signed it in February almost half of it can still be attributed to Bush.

I'm not crazy about how Obama has handled the budget problem either. But to pin it entirely on him is just dishonest. I wish he had let the Bush tax cuts expire. ALL of them. We're not going to solve this problem through spending cuts alone.

http://www.slate.com/id/2291054/ A good article I read the other day on how doing nothing will reduce the deficit.

4/19/2011 6:47:34 PM

Dude, I remember. The TARP was in two parts, Bush only had access to the first half to spend, the second half came available when Obama was in office.

Remember, The Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, they didn't want Bush spending any more money than they had to because he would spend it wrong (on Republican Causes).

And it could very well be solved through spending cuts alone and I think it should. Slash the military, make all entitlements means tested and block granted to states. These two alone should close the deficit in no time.

4/19/2011 7:35:45 PM

I'm going to start posting like face and say "THE CRASH IS HERE" on days when the dow is down and then go MIA on up days.

Also, I'd like it if someone would launch an ETF that tracks the price of bullets and canned goods so that I can get some exposure to that nascent commodity market when the Mad Max days get here.

4/21/2011 5:22:02 PM

When Beck starts making sense, you're fucked

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J13EhFN0lDw&feature=player_embedded#at=508

4/22/2011 7:00:01 AM

I was actually able to watch that Beck clip without getting physically ill. He's getting better.

4/22/2011 7:26:49 AM

^^^ i hope you're not openly mocking me. Its not like the people alerting you of this crash don't have a track record.

Global growth is keeping our head above water BARELY. If it wasn't for global growth we'd be dead already. We're going down buddy, bank on it.

4/25/2011 12:29:55 AM

Quote :

"We're going down buddy, bank on it."

Haha, we'll only go down if the people who are banking on it are the ones that cause it...

4/25/2011 12:56:48 AM

Silver's ridiculous. Get your precious metals while they're still cheap. If only you'd taken my advice a year and a half ago: http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=579908

Some highlights:

Quote :

"right now the price is way too high. you should be selling your gold. it is a shitty time to buy. I guess I don't buy bullion, but I have alot of stock from making jewelry."

Quote :

"I think it would be foolish to buy gold today. I mean, you might do well to buy it today and sell it in a week; but I wouldn't get caught holding it for any period of time."

Quote :

"plat is at mid 1300's gold is at low 1100's silver is ~17"

Quote :

"I remember hearing statements like this when the DOW as at 14000 about two years ago. And when Corning, Nortel, Covad, had stock prices over $100 in 2000. And when people on TWW were talking about it being a good time to start flipping houses in 2006."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote :

"Haha, we'll only go down if the people who are banking on it are the ones that cause it..."

Hopefully, you realize that this is and has been happening for some time now.

[Edited on April 25, 2011 at 1:01 AM. Reason : ]

4/25/2011 12:59:03 AM

Silver has gone full blown parabolic and is approaching the Hunt brothers highs. I'd expect to see it have a long pause at those levels, likely in conjunction with a pause in oil and equities before the final rocket shot (to what level I have no idea) and some real crazy things happen after that in all sectors.

4/25/2011 6:58:53 AM

You have to realize also that TARP, although nobody liked the idea of doing it, was a necessary evil. It is also regarded as one of the most effective government measures in that the govt has recovered roughly 70% of funds, and many project the govt to turn a profit. Worst case scenario people have a projected govt loss of $25B. If you are going to complain about TARP spending, at least recognize that is was successful and most, if not all of the funds will be recovered.

ps...Obama voted for TARP while in the democratic controlled senate

4/25/2011 4:39:16 PM

TARP did a great job of keeping rich people rich on the backs of the middle class. I'll grant you that for sure.

4/25/2011 10:53:11 PM