Raising hands is at least better than flipping coins

2/2/2016 7:10:01 AM

Iowa is 94% white.

If the best Bernie could manage there is a split, he's fucked.

Maybe he'll make some more Killer Mike videos to show us he has black friends.

2/2/2016 9:21:13 AM

are you aware that Iowa is a caucus?

2/2/2016 9:36:59 AM

you can put lipstick on the pig all you want. as soon as minorities start having a voice, Bernie's donezo. his only hope was early momentum with an Iowa victory.

2/2/2016 9:43:59 AM

I'm glad to see that someone is gonna at least make Hillary have to try during this whole process. I think maybe if people see that she had a contender they will actually start to take Bernie seriously and he can swing some more people over his way. I am not sure how many of them are a vote for Sanders though rather than just a vote against Clinton.

2/2/2016 9:47:37 AM

^^ and Sanders is leading young people by a landslide. Sanders' problem with minorities is not due to his positions but because of awareness, so as the primary moves forward his polling with minorities will continue to improve.

[Edited on February 2, 2016 at 10:31 AM. Reason : .]

2/2/2016 10:30:23 AM

There is no reason why minorities should favor hillary over Bernie. In fact, things were awful for minorities under Bill Clinton. Sorting polling data by race provides a false sense of correlation in this case. It just so happens that minorities tend to be evangelical christians and those values are completely at odds with democratic socialism.

2/2/2016 10:35:08 AM

The fight between these two is just ENDLESS.

[Edited on February 2, 2016 at 10:40 AM. Reason : And neither of them will win.]

2/2/2016 10:39:37 AM

Quote :

"If the best Bernie could manage there is a split, he's fucked. "

Quote :

" his only hope was early momentum with an Iowa victory."

Quote :

"I think maybe if people see that she had a contender they will actually start to take Bernie seriously and he can swing some more people over his way."

You guys are kidding, right? A tie in Iowa is as good as winning for the Sanders campaign. Hillary was a double-digit favorite just a month ago and Bernie caught up. Hillary walks away with 22 new delegates but Bernie has 21. That's fantastic considering how much the polls have him ahead in New Hampshire.

My guess for NH is Bernie takes home 14 new delegates, Hillary gets 10.

2/2/2016 12:48:45 PM

If you think Bernie coming out of honky ass Iowa and NH with +3 delegates is a win, you've deluded yourself.

2/2/2016 1:16:26 PM

Things are still stacked against Bernie, but it's a dynamic system, this near win could have effects that push Bernie up in other states.

Bernie has a great opportunity now to understand who his supporters are and who they aren't, and reach out to those people.

2/2/2016 1:33:14 PM

Bernie is going to lose badly in every remaining primary except Wisconsin and NH. It's just not going to be enough, unless something bonkers happens.

2/2/2016 1:42:15 PM

seriously? do you really think that black folks in south carolina or hispanics in nevada are going to look at Iowa and New Hampshire results and suddenly become pro-socialist? and for that matter, do you really think that Bernie didn't already know that virtually his entire base is white millenials?

2/2/2016 1:45:01 PM

^ nailed it

The only way Hildog won't be the nominee is if she gets indicted and even then I wouldn't be shocked if her arrogance kept her from stepping down.

2/2/2016 2:01:43 PM

she could shoot someone and still be elected.

2/2/2016 3:41:37 PM

Quote :

"seriously? do you really think that black folks in south carolina or hispanics in nevada are going to look at Iowa and New Hampshire results and suddenly become pro-socialist? "

they watch media, and media can no longer ignore sanders. sanders has a much better message and platform and is doing significantly more outreach in these markets than Clinton

2/2/2016 3:56:31 PM

I mean you keep saying that, and I'm sure you believe it, but I don't think you're being very realistic. Sanders appeals to a very specific type of voter (white, urban millennials) and he's a self proclaimed Socialist. Do you really think non-whites are just going to change their entire political ideologies and preferences in a few months? I sure don't.

2/2/2016 4:23:12 PM

its actually racist to group voters by race. I don't know how that is still "PC" as they would say especially when there is not a race issue dividing hillary and bernie supporters.

2/2/2016 4:32:24 PM

^^he is a social democrat which means that he supports policies that the majority of Americans support. he has a message about fair markets and runaway wall street that appeals to more than white millennials .

Sanders is the only candidate with a HBCU outreach director and is touring HBCU's as just one part of his outreach to minorities

[Edited on February 2, 2016 at 4:34 PM. Reason : .]

2/2/2016 4:33:57 PM

I mean that's great. His campaign certainly has the potential to reach people and get them to vote for him, but so what? I think a lot of people are assuming that what happened in 2008 is going to happen again, but I'm just not seeing it.

2/2/2016 4:42:55 PM

the point is that if sanders energizes young minority voters, it doesn't matter that old black people are evangelicals

2/2/2016 4:54:38 PM

right, I got that. I don't think he will. Young people don't vote. 2008 was a fluke.

2/2/2016 5:01:20 PM

http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/08/12/black-lives-matter-movement-gives-bernie-sanders-racial-justice-agenda-push-it

Sanders has real credibility when it comes to civil rights issues, way more than Hillary, or anyone running.

He could easily capture minority votes from Clinton, who is riding Bill's legacy there, if he could get this message out.

2/2/2016 5:23:26 PM

Riding Bill's legacy of the war on drugs, black incarceration and privately owned prisons.

2/2/2016 5:28:33 PM

I wonder if the black vote is also split among age lines. It could be that there just isn't a black block this time around.

2/2/2016 8:21:19 PM

of course it will be, Sanders is winning young people by a landslide

2/2/2016 8:44:57 PM

Quote :

"Riding Bill's legacy of the war on drugs, black incarceration and privately owned prisons. "

That's a really strange choice. War on drugs was more of a Reagan / Bush thing. Black incarceration certainly has been a mainstay of every president since the beginning of the country. And the explosion of privately owned prisons I don't think has a lot to do with Clinton specifically.

Why not mention 3 strikes you're out or welfare reform?

2/2/2016 10:49:13 PM

Broadly, President Clinton was part of the "tough on crime" movement, aggravating our criminal justice problem. I'm pretty sure he even says so himself.

2/2/2016 11:58:16 PM

To be fair, crime was out of control during the early 1990s...

2/3/2016 1:17:38 AM

Quote :

" Sanders is winning young people by a landslide"

young people don't bother to vote

2/3/2016 9:05:35 AM

Young people were the largest group of the increased turnout in 2008, and among young people black people had the highest turnout rate

but more specifically, that post was a response to:

Quote :

"I wonder if the black vote is also split among age lines."

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 9:10 AM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 9:09:53 AM

^ maybe they might bother if the opposition is a widely known and generally disliked celebrity? probably not though.

2/3/2016 9:14:08 AM

youth voters lost interest in 2012, and even their record 2008 turnout was garbage compared to older age groups.

2/3/2016 9:26:55 AM

i think the 18-24 demographic is larger than the 65+ demographic

2/3/2016 9:57:49 AM

you are wrong by a count of ~ 10 million

18-24: 30,672,088
65+: 40,267,984

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

18-34 is projected to be bigger than the Boomers right now, but when you put the boomers plus the Gen X plus the older generation, millenials are a about 1/3 the size.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/01/16/this-year-millennials-will-overtake-baby-boomers/

millenials are also ~42% non-white.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/millennials_report.pdf

all three of those statistics are aligned against Bernie. but sure, a close loss in iowa is suddenly going to change everything

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 10:13 AM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 10:12:38 AM

non-white millennials support sanders

^yeah, i was thinking about the caucuses. they were the same size in 2008 and projected to be higher this year

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 10:19 AM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 10:15:50 AM

do you have the polling data to back that claim up? because I can't find anything that does.

2/3/2016 10:51:21 AM

Again, 2016 isn't 2008. The Millennial vote certainly matters, but I've seen nothing to suggest that they'll show up at the polls in the same way they did in 2008. That sounds like wishful thinking on the part of Sanders' supporters.

2/3/2016 11:59:01 AM

sanders is getting more millennial response than obama did, he has a larger grass roots network and fundraising too

2/3/2016 12:12:19 PM

wading through your bullshit posting while waiting on those black millennial polling numbers is fun!

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 12:17 PM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 12:15:45 PM

he's out fundraising and has a larger network

2/3/2016 12:18:01 PM

2/3/2016 12:37:30 PM

Quote :

"he's out fundraising"

you love throwing out shit that's rooted in fantasy, don't you?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 1:19 PM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 1:19:33 PM

talking about grassroots fundraising vs obama at the same point

2/3/2016 1:24:25 PM

Quote :

"sanders is getting more millennial response than obama did"

can you provide concrete proof of this, or are you just saying he has the potential to get millennials out to the polls? pretty significant difference, and again, it just sounds like wishful thinking. unfortunately, that doesn't work in political elections.

2/3/2016 1:59:28 PM

Quote :

"Still, Sanders’s overwhelming margins among Iowa’s younger voters—which exceeded even Obama’s 2008 showing—affirmatively answered the first critical question for the Vermont senator’s campaign: Would the connection with young voters evident at his rallies translate to the ballot box?"

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-great-democratic-age-gap/459570/

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 2:05 PM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 2:04:34 PM

Are there any other democratic socialist politicians? It seems like there is no one to fill in for Bernie and that the revolution will die with him.

The demographics are one or two elections away from being favorable to democratic socialists winning a presidency and some serious seats in congress. Its just not quite there yet. Each year more old people die and more young people turn 18 the math is going to work out but Bernie is 74 so he won't be around.

Young politicians should be running for congress and aligning themselves with Bernie in order to inherit the movement or else there will be a huge vacuum. Ideally, people would go to the green party but I think we're several cycles away from the mass public embracing a 3rd party.

2/3/2016 2:10:20 PM

^^ok, that's just talking about the Iowa Caucuses though. As I said earlier, aside from NH and WI, Sanders has little to no chance in the rest of the primaries. IA/NH/WI are extremely white and not really representative of the rest of the electorate.

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 2:12 PM. Reason : .]

2/3/2016 2:12:16 PM

poll after poll shows Sanders leading Clinton among young, is that really being questioned?

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/11/10750326/clinton-sanders-poll

2/3/2016 2:22:53 PM

^^You keep saying that but you haven't given any reason why white people would favor sanders more. Sure, he happens to be from a region that is almost all white, but theres no logic behind what you're implying.

[Edited on February 3, 2016 at 2:24 PM. Reason : k]

2/3/2016 2:23:03 PM