i hate football

[Edited on September 22, 2007 at 11:22 PM. Reason : congrats JB, u fucker you]

9/22/2007 11:21:05 PM

Quote :

"Georgia vs. Alabama U49.5"

genius.

[Edited on September 22, 2007 at 11:23 PM. Reason : lucky you they don't bother w/ extra points.]

9/22/2007 11:22:59 PM

hahahahah, I wouldnt have taken it without that half point

hahahahaha, that sealed the deal for me


My 3 money teams this year so far: Illinois, Cincinnati, and Missouri, I think I am 7-0 with them

WEEK 4


here are my "stone cold, lead pipe, take them out behind the woodshed" locks for Week 4. .... Year-to-date record in parentheses.

* (9-7)
Washington +7 vs. Philly - W
Texas A&M +2 vs. Miami - L
Ohio State -22.5 vs. Northwestern - W
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana - W
Georgia vs. Alabama U49.5 - W

** (5-6)
Arkansas State +18.5 vs. Tennessee - L
Texas A&M vs. Miami U46 - L jesus fucking bullshit
BC vs. Army U45.5 - L
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Minnesota

*** (16-5)
Auburn -17.5 vs. New Mexico St. - W
Louisville vs. Syracuse 061.5 - W
Baylor vs. Buffalo O53 - W
Rice vs. Texas U65 - L
Michigan State -11.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Michigan State -9.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Seattle -3 vs. Cincinnati

**** (8-3)
Cincinnatti -22.5 vs. Marshall - W
LSU -16.5 vs South Carolina - L
Clemson -7.5 vs. NC State - W

***** (2-1)
GT -3.5 vs. Vriginia - L fucking white piece of shit



[Edited on September 22, 2007 at 11:26 PM. Reason : f]

9/22/2007 11:25:12 PM

YTD RECORD...9-4


Miami -2 vs. Texas A&M WIN
Oklahoma/Tulsa over 65.5 WIN
GT -3 vs. UVA LOSS
South Carolina +18 vs. LSU WIN
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana WIN
Central Florida -7 vs. Memphis WIN
Penn St -3 vs Michigan LOSS
Clemson -7 vs. NC State WIN
Michigan State -9.5 vs. ND WIN
Alabama -3 vs. Georgia LOSS
Arkansas vs Kentucky over 65.5 WIN
Wisconsin -7 vs. Iowa LOSS
UCLA -5.5 vs Washington WIN


KC -2.5 over Minnesota
Redskins -3 vs. Giants
Jets -3 vs. Dolphins
Ravens -7 vs. Arizona
Dallas +3 vs Chicago

9/23/2007 3:56:17 AM

Winning on the road has proven to be difficult in the NFL year after year and this season is no different. After two weeks of action, home teams own a solid 20-12 straight up record. The host has gone 15-15-2 against the spread during this stretch as well. It’s no surprise that visitors have struggled early and will continue to do so all year. In 2006, only nine clubs boasted a winning record on the road and just 10 in 2005.

With every team scheduled to play eight road games, travel doesn’t seem like a major factor. However, when you have teams traveling from East to West Coasts and vice versa, you can see a vast difference in play from the visitor.

The system goes as follows:
Play on any home team that faces a visitor that has traveled from one time zone to another with a minimum difference of two hours.

To simplify the angle further, you can follow along with our NFL Time Zone Map and the below example.

Ex. Seattle playing at Denver would not fit the criteria, but if the Seahawks traveled to Chicago and/or New England, then the system play would be on the Bears and/or Patriots.

Most would expect professionals to not be weary on the road, especially when traveling through time zones but that hasn’t been the case at all, particularly in September and October.

The past two years, I’ve tracked the data in pieces on VI and will do so again this year too. In 2005, the home team dominated the road team in the first half of the season. After Week 10, the host owned a 25-10 SU and 21-14 ATS mark. Last year (2006), the home team went an eye opening 19-6 SU and 16-9 ATS mark after eight weeks.

You can see by the charts in the above pieces that the numbers do tail off later in the season, probably in part to routines becoming more familiar plus contenders and pretenders are determined later in the year.

This year, the system is off to another decent start for gamblers, watching the host go 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS.


Year to Date Results
Week Road Team Home Team Score
1 Denver (-3) Buffalo 15-14
1 Tampa Bay Seattle (-7) 20-6
1 Chicago San Diego (-6) 14-3
1 Detroit (+2) Oakland 36-21
2 San Francisco (+3) St. Louis 17-16
2 San Diego New England (-4) 38-14
Winner listed in Bold


The numbers could be a bit better, but the home team is still covering at a 67 percent clip. All three of the straight up victories were by double-digits and you can make a case that Buffalo could’ve easily defeated Denver in Week 1, plus St. Louis just muffed a victory last week against San Francisco.

Come Week 3, we have six matchups that fit the system, including two contests where the club is in a back-to-back time zone difference travel. The two visitors that fit the above criteria are San Diego and San Francisco.


Week 3 Matchups
Road Team Home Team Time Zone Difference
San Diego Green Bay 2 Hours
San Francisco Pittsburgh 3 Hours
Arizona Baltimore 2 Hours
Jacksonville Denver 2 Hours
Cincinnati Seattle 3 Hours
Cleveland Oakland 3 Hours


The Chargers were pasted 38-14 at Foxboro last week and now head back on the road to Green Bay. San Diego is listed as a five-point road favorite, the only club in the above criteria listed as a ‘chalk’.

The 49ers stand at 2-0, but you’d be very surprised if you glanced at the boxscores. San Francisco hasn’t busted the 200-yard barrier in either of its two victories, yet it has won the turnover battle in both contests.

Perhaps that’s why the Cardinals are catching nine-points against the Steelers on Sunday?


[Edited on September 23, 2007 at 4:15 AM. Reason : s]

9/23/2007 4:13:42 AM

^be careful with that..first of all the article says the Cardinals are playing Pittsburgh..just nitpicking.

Anyway, if you look at the past results for their system, it is 57-49. (53.8%) If you flip a coin 106 times, you will get 57 heads or more 20% of the time.


----------------------------------------------------------------

From 1993-2005 (Source: Pro Football Prospectus 2006):

East Coast Teams (Atl, Bal, Buf, Car, Jac, Mia, NE, NYG, NYJ, Phi, Pit, TB, Was)
Overall Road W-L: 585-801 (.422)
@West Coast W-L: (72-101) (.416)

West Coast Teams (Ari, Oak, SD, SF, Sea)
Overall Road W-L: 199-333 (.374)
@East Coast W-L: 67-103 (.394)

Away Record of Coastal Teams: 784-1134 (.409)
Away Record of Coast-to-Coast Games: 139-204 (.405)

So overall, teams do slightly worse going coast to coast (.405) than overall (.409).

Here is the chart btw, with teams that did worse in coast to coast games than away games overall in bold:

ATL: Overall Road: .380, @West Coast: .200
BAL: Overall Road: .287, @West Coast: .500
BUF: Overall Road: .392, @West Coast: .307
CAR: Overall Road: .440, @West Coast: .636
JAC: Overall Road: .440, @West Coast: .500
MIA: Overall Road: .459, @West Coast: .545
NE: Overall Road: .500, @West Coast: .400
NYG: Overall Road: .458, @West Coast: .409
NYJ: Overall Road: .404, @West Coast: .563
PHI: Overall Road: .472, @West Coast: .400
PIT: Overall Road: .531, @West Coast: .500
TB: Overall Road: .385, @West Coast: .181
WAS: Overall Road: .364, @West Coast: .444

ARI: Overall Road: .236, @East Coast: .304
OAK Overall Road: .425, @East Coast: .438
SD Overall Road: .387, @East Coast: .333
SF Overall Road: .422, @East Coast: .474
SEA Overall Road: .400, @East Coast .481

So 10 of the 18 teams actually have a better record when traveling to the opposite coast. This has been a long and dorky way of saying that I ignore travel distance in the NFL.

9/23/2007 8:08:57 AM

any thoughts on the Over for the colts texans game?

9/23/2007 12:21:20 PM

i kinda like over on seattle game

9/23/2007 12:22:08 PM

My 3 money teams this year so far: Illinois, Cincinnati, and Missouri, I think I am 7-0 with them

WEEK 4


here are my "stone cold, lead pipe, take them out behind the woodshed" locks for Week 4. .... Year-to-date record in parentheses.

* (9-7)
Washington +7 vs. Philly - W
Texas A&M +2 vs. Miami - L
Ohio State -22.5 vs. Northwestern - W
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana - W
Georgia vs. Alabama U49.5 - W
Oakland vs. Cleveland O41

** (5-6)
Arkansas State +18.5 vs. Tennessee - L
Texas A&M vs. Miami U46 - L jesus fucking bullshit
BC vs. Army U45.5 - L
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Minnesota
Washington -3.5 vs. NY Giants

*** (16-5)
Auburn -17.5 vs. New Mexico St. - W
Louisville vs. Syracuse 061.5 - W
Baylor vs. Buffalo O53 - W
Rice vs. Texas U65 - L
Michigan State -11.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Michigan State -9.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Seattle -3 vs. Cincinnati

**** (8-3)
Cincinnatti -22.5 vs. Marshall - W
LSU -16.5 vs South Carolina - L
Clemson -7.5 vs. NC State - W

***** (2-1)
GT -3.5 vs. Vriginia - L fucking white piece of shit

9/23/2007 12:39:32 PM

Indy....sigh. bullshit backdoor cover

9/23/2007 4:00:47 PM

jets pushed. kc pushed bastards!!!

9/23/2007 4:18:09 PM

haha, I had KC - 2.5 and the Steelers


My 3 money teams this year so far: Illinois, Cincinnati, and Missouri, I think I am 7-0 with them

WEEK 4


here are my "stone cold, lead pipe, take them out behind the woodshed" locks for Week 4. .... Year-to-date record in parentheses.

* (9-7)
Washington +7 vs. Philly - W
Texas A&M +2 vs. Miami - L
Ohio State -22.5 vs. Northwestern - W
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana - W
Georgia vs. Alabama U49.5 - W
Oakland vs. Cleveland O41

** (6-6)
Arkansas State +18.5 vs. Tennessee - L
Texas A&M vs. Miami U46 - L jesus fucking bullshit
BC vs. Army U45.5 - L
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Minnesota - W
Washington -3.5 vs. NY Giants

*** (16-5)
Auburn -17.5 vs. New Mexico St. - W
Louisville vs. Syracuse 061.5 - W
Baylor vs. Buffalo O53 - W
Rice vs. Texas U65 - L
Michigan State -11.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Michigan State -9.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Seattle -3 vs. Cincinnati

**** (8-3)
Cincinnatti -22.5 vs. Marshall - W
LSU -16.5 vs South Carolina - L
Clemson -7.5 vs. NC State - W

***** (2-1)
GT -3.5 vs. Vriginia - L fucking white piece of shit

[Edited on September 23, 2007 at 4:24 PM. Reason : d]

9/23/2007 4:23:47 PM

thats why you bet early in the week

KC was -2.5 up till today.

Indy was -5.5 earlier.

9/23/2007 4:23:51 PM

I think i may have a very bad week

------------------------------------
bet 100.00 to win 57.14 Result: Broncos over Jags

bet 5.00 to win 7.25 Result: Cowboys over bears

bet 5.00 to win 9.00 Result: Titans over saints

bet 30.00 to win 46.50 Result: Browns over raiders

bet 30.00 to win 14.29 Result: Panthers over falcons

bet 30.00 to win 51.00 Result: Rams over Bucs

bet 5.00 to win 6.50 Result: Vikings over chiefs

9/23/2007 5:26:30 PM

won the over on Cleveland/Oakland

My 3 money teams this year so far: Illinois, Cincinnati, and Missouri, I think I am 7-0 with them

WEEK 4


here are my "stone cold, lead pipe, take them out behind the woodshed" locks for Week 4. .... Year-to-date record in parentheses.

* (10-7)
Washington +7 vs. Philly - W
Texas A&M +2 vs. Miami - L
Ohio State -22.5 vs. Northwestern - W
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana - W
Georgia vs. Alabama U49.5 - W
Oakland vs. Cleveland O41 - W

** (6-6)
Arkansas State +18.5 vs. Tennessee - L
Texas A&M vs. Miami U46 - L jesus fucking bullshit
BC vs. Army U45.5 - L
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Minnesota - W
Washington -3.5 vs. NY Giants

*** (16-5)
Auburn -17.5 vs. New Mexico St. - W
Louisville vs. Syracuse 061.5 - W
Baylor vs. Buffalo O53 - W
Rice vs. Texas U65 - L
Michigan State -11.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Michigan State -9.5 vs. Notre Dame - W
Seattle -3 vs. Cincinnati

**** (8-3)
Cincinnatti -22.5 vs. Marshall - W
LSU -16.5 vs South Carolina - L
Clemson -7.5 vs. NC State - W

***** (2-1)
GT -3.5 vs. Vriginia - L fucking white piece of shit

9/23/2007 6:40:33 PM

YTD RECORD...10-6-1


Miami -2 vs. Texas A&M WIN
Oklahoma/Tulsa over 65.5 WIN
GT -3 vs. UVA LOSS
South Carolina +18 vs. LSU WIN
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana WIN
Central Florida -7 vs. Memphis WIN
Penn St -3 vs Michigan LOSS
Clemson -7 vs. NC State WIN
Michigan State -9.5 vs. ND WIN
Alabama -3 vs. Georgia LOSS
Arkansas vs Kentucky over 65.5 WIN
Wisconsin -7 vs. Iowa LOSS
UCLA -5.5 vs Washington WIN


KC -2.5 over Minnesota WIN
Redskins -3 vs. Giants LOSS
Jets -3 vs. Dolphins PUSH
Ravens -7 vs. Arizona LOSS
Dallas +3 vs Chicago


Going BIG on the Boys tonight

9/23/2007 7:30:08 PM

it seems like any game that we all generally agree on, loses, haha. (Redskins, GT)

9/23/2007 7:34:42 PM

haha yeah im gonna start betting against your 5 star picks

9/23/2007 7:43:44 PM

Damn I am having a rough time. 15-12 over the last 3 weeks. Hope the Dallas/Chicago game is a low scoring one tonight.

9/23/2007 7:45:18 PM

+37 "units" today, dallas could make it a whole lot better

9/23/2007 8:10:39 PM

wow... Louisville opened at -9 against State... now down to 8



anyone got a farm I can bet??

8!!!

9/23/2007 9:12:56 PM

Dear Crayton,

Obviously you bet on the Bears, thanks asshole for sucking at your job!

9/23/2007 9:32:45 PM

yeah, that was redunkulous... I didnt bet on it, but I am a Cowboys fan

9/23/2007 9:34:23 PM

broken pinky or not, he should have caught that. ball was perfect. he could have even caught it with his body.

9/23/2007 9:35:22 PM

Motherfucker needs Stick 'Um

9/23/2007 9:35:23 PM

so does Berrian

9/23/2007 9:36:20 PM

CATCH THE FUCKING BALL FAGGOTS

9/23/2007 9:37:18 PM

OK wtf

at least 2 full seconds left there

Dallas is getting hosed tonight

9/23/2007 9:49:28 PM

They aren't trying to throw it to someone other than Owens and Chicago isn't even trying to guard Owens

9/23/2007 10:30:31 PM

Rex grossman is so bad.

9/23/2007 10:57:32 PM

If Jaybee can do it with Michigan State, then I can count my Dallas win as two also

Had enough on that to buy a whole truckload of Yankee hats

YTD RECORD...12-6-1


Miami -2 vs. Texas A&M WIN
Oklahoma/Tulsa over 65.5 WIN
GT -3 vs. UVA LOSS
South Carolina +18 vs. LSU WIN
Illinois -3 vs. Indiana WIN
Central Florida -7 vs. Memphis WIN
Penn St -3 vs Michigan LOSS
Clemson -7 vs. NC State WIN
Michigan State -9.5 vs. ND WIN
Alabama -3 vs. Georgia LOSS
Arkansas vs Kentucky over 65.5 WIN
Wisconsin -7 vs. Iowa LOSS
UCLA -5.5 vs Washington WIN


KC -2.5 over Minnesota WIN
Redskins -3 vs. Giants LOSS
Jets -3 vs. Dolphins PUSH
Ravens -7 vs. Arizona LOSS
Dallas +3 vs Chicago DOUBLE WIN

9/23/2007 11:12:34 PM

+51.3 "units" on the day, one of my better days ever

9/23/2007 11:26:22 PM

^^ only if they are at separate spreads....

9/24/2007 12:04:52 AM

what do yall have for the saints vs. titans tomorrow?

9/24/2007 12:14:39 AM

Oklahoma, USC, and Cincy have been doing wonders for me.

9/24/2007 12:21:45 AM

Eh, I played the moneyline too but didn't post it so I''ll just take 11-6-1 then



Like the Saints at -4, not sold on it yet though



[Edited on September 24, 2007 at 12:38 AM. Reason : x]

9/24/2007 12:35:20 AM

Oklahoma -23 WIN
East Carolina +24.5 LOSE
Syracuse +34 WIN
NC State +7.5 LOSE
South Florida -13.5 WIN
Ball State +22.5 WIN
Florida -23 LOSE
Illinois -2 WIN
Army +27 WIN
LSU -16.5 LOSE
Michigan +2.5 WIN
Ohio State -22.5 WIN
Georgia Tech -5 LOSE
Kentucky +7 WIN
California -15.5 WIN
Rice +38.5 LOSE
Georgia +3.5 WIN
Wisconsin -7.5 LOSE
USC -25 WIN
Oregon -17 WIN

IND -7 LOSE
MIN +3 LOSE
NYJ -3 PUSH
OAK -3 LOSE
CHI -3 LOSE

13-11-1

+$200

im usually better at nfl

9/24/2007 12:42:07 AM

Titans +4 ...lock

9/24/2007 1:12:29 AM

i cant decide, i really think though based on my personal rythm research it will be the saints

9/24/2007 1:14:29 AM

Found the saints line at -3.5, bought the hook


Saints -3 vs. Titans


Added to the dockett

[Edited on September 24, 2007 at 2:19 AM. Reason : x]

9/24/2007 2:17:27 AM

I think most of us put extra money on the sunday night game just to cover the gayness that happened during the day

9/24/2007 6:24:02 AM

There are no locks so I wouldnt go throwing around that word unless you wanna look like a fool. As for the game this really is a gamble either way, the linesmakers set this line based on potential. If the Saints play like they are capable they cover this line, if they play like they have the past 2 weeks on the road then they don't. Pretty much which Saints team shows up is gonna determine the winner on this one. Also the total is pretty much dead on I think. Saints of old show up it goes over, saints of this year so far it goes under. That being said if I play it will be very small and probably on the under or some small prop bets for fun. Too many unknowns here for there to be any value in this one, you are just as well to put your money on the coin toss in my opinion.

9/24/2007 8:44:14 AM

an overall shitty monday night game. entertainment wise and betting wise.

9/24/2007 10:42:39 AM

vince reggie part 2 has potential...dunno if it will become kinetic but it has potential

BUT NOW LENDALE IS WITH VINCE

[Edited on September 24, 2007 at 10:44 AM. Reason : .]

9/24/2007 10:44:17 AM

One of those things I hate seeing, everyone I have seen post just about is on tenn tonight, yet the line is still moving in the saints direction up to -5 now. Usually a bad sign more often than not.

9/24/2007 4:22:58 PM

I got the saints -3.5 last night and bought the hook, feel good about it after seeing the line move today.

The line is fishy. There would've been equal action if it had opened NO -3.5. Vegas came out with the dreaded 5.5 which usually means they have no idea what's going to happen in this game. Therefore, I think it's useless to rationalize this line as a 'trap' or not.

What we should be doing is looking at the matchups. The key questions are:

(1) Why did NO get creamed in their 1st two games?
They were consistently beaten on long pass plays. Wayne and Galloway are speedsters that embarassed the Saints secondary.
(2) Does Tenn have recievers that can take advantage of that weakness?
I don't see any speedsters on thier roster that are equivalent to Wayne or Galloway. Look at Vince's passing stats. He doesn't air it out. Tenn wins with the run and a few game-changing plays from Vince.
(3) What CAN the Saints do to stop the Tenn offense?
The Saints are not that bad against the run. They've played a team that most resembles the Titans (running team with a mobile QB), Atlanta, and beat them handily last year.

Tenn has shown more positive this year than the Saints but in the NFL, it's all about matchups. I like NO's matchups against TEN tonight.

[Edited on September 24, 2007 at 4:34 PM. Reason : x]

9/24/2007 4:30:29 PM

Yeah that is a good point, I'm also wondering if Bush and McCallister can get themselves going as well tonight. Im still leaning towards just sticking with the under here, no matter what it will be a pretty small bet as I am just like vegas, just cant get a good read on tonights game.

9/24/2007 4:47:13 PM

I took the over in this one. Bought some points to get it to 42.5.

[Edited on September 24, 2007 at 5:00 PM. Reason : saints - titans]

9/24/2007 5:00:30 PM

titans almost handled the colts....

9/24/2007 5:07:25 PM

took the under at 46, it just changed from 45.5 on SI

9/24/2007 5:11:58 PM