hopefully it will be more like Zachary Taylor!

amirite or amirite?

9/27/2007 6:06:28 PM

Under 50.5 for tonight

9/27/2007 7:34:57 PM

listened to Fowler huh?

9/27/2007 7:42:41 PM

I wonder what's going on in this game, I have no idea bc it's dark

[Edited on September 27, 2007 at 7:49 PM. Reason : on half the field]

9/27/2007 7:49:35 PM

NCAA needs to regulate on this bullshit turf. It was cute for a few years, now its just annoying.

especially with blue fucking uniforms... fuckers just HAVE to be different

9/27/2007 8:14:43 PM

Good way to start the week... Arkansas State was down 31-6 and came back to cover

WEEK 5


here are my "stone cold, lead pipe, take them out behind the woodshed" locks for Week 4. .... Year-to-date record in parentheses. I like a lot of unders this week.

* (10-7)
Cincinnati -13.5 vs. San Diego St
Clemson vs. GT U-50.5

** (6-6)
LSU -39.5 vs. Tulane
Auburn vs. Florida U-55
Miss State vs. South Carolina U-42.5

*** (17-5)
Arkansas St. -2.5 vs. Memphis - W
Miss. State +14 vs. South Carolina
Green Bay -1.5 vs. Minnesota (this had retarded ass NFL written all over it, Vikings will win by 20)
West Virginia vs. USF U-55

**** (8-3)
Alabama vs. FSU U-44
Michigan St. vs. Wisconsin U-46.5

***** (2-1)
Louisville -8 vs. NC State

[Edited on September 27, 2007 at 10:53 PM. Reason : d]

9/27/2007 10:50:36 PM

is louisville really only favored by 8???

9/27/2007 11:02:19 PM

was... its gone up a bit since then...


did you think I was lying?

9/27/2007 11:08:20 PM

it's at 10 now... but yes they were only favored by 8 monday night. Also that arkansas st game last night only covered the spread u got it at not the one before game time glad i left it alone when it hit 4.5

oh wait louisville is back down to -8.5 now

[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 10:10 AM. Reason : ]

9/28/2007 10:08:32 AM

west va -7

9/28/2007 12:34:15 PM

Quote :

"Damn I am having a rough time. 15-12 over the last 3 weeks. Hope the Dallas/Chicago game is a low scoring one tonight."

since making that comment i've gone 5-0. hope this momentum carries throughout the weekend.

9/28/2007 12:45:11 PM

^^^ I could care less what the spread went to...



I just care about the spread when I sent mine in

9/28/2007 12:49:34 PM

any of yall make good money on this? like enough to call it a "job"?

9/28/2007 12:59:03 PM

I am hitting 63% so far this year, would be a lot higher if I didnt do the damn NFL but I cant help myself







anything above 60 is considered pretty damn good, but I dont bet enough to live off of (if one could live off of units )

9/28/2007 1:05:30 PM

very very few people do well enough on a consistent basis to make enough to consider it a job. This isnt poker where you get lucky and win one big tourney and you made enough to cover yourself for a whole year just about. I'd venture to guess 85+% people over the long term lose money doing it. Sure you have a great week here and there, but chances are you didnt cash out after one big bet and blew it all on some other game the next week. Im just as guilty of this, I have some awesome weeks such as last weekend when everyone else was crying I made a shit ton, but hell Ive caught some bad breaks in a couple games this week and a lot of that is gone. Gambling should be considered recreational, if you are gonna blink one eye at that money being gone you shouldnt do it, because in all likelyhood its going to be eventually. Most people who tell you they make shit tons of money doing it are either actually bookies, or bullshitting you. I suppose if you were rich and could afford to drop 10 grand on a couple of games a week then sure you could make some, but lets face it most of us dont have the funds or balls to bet that much on something. I will say though that Jaybee has been doing a real nice job this season and has posted all his picks so he has made some, but I'm sure he knows all it takes is one bad week to go from up big to down big lol. On that note GL to everyone this weekend

9/28/2007 4:08:56 PM

I def. do it on a recreation basis only. I usually only bet on CFB and some NFL, but rarely anything else. 9/10 times I will only bet on games that I will watch and small amounts with higher odds. Like tonight, hanging out with my dad and watching the Red Sox. took the Sox -1.5 and under 10 for $15 bucks, pays like 3.5-1. Makes baseball a lot more exciting for me.

9/28/2007 4:22:00 PM

Agreed, I obviously spend some time and effot into trying to make money. Last basketball season when I dropped down to 1 CBB play only each day I started hitting 75%, problem was holding myself to one a day eventually I let it get the best of me. There are lots of ways to let yourself get off your game and even though I know these I still do them. As you said when 2 teams are playing on TV that I have no interest in, all of a sudden money is on the line and Im jumping around enjoying all the action haha.

9/28/2007 4:27:14 PM

If you look at at all serious sports betters percentages, the best ones have yearly averages of like 50.9 percent

9/28/2007 4:50:11 PM

^if so then they are losing money at -110 odds, so they probably aren't serious

On the other hand, if anyone could actually hit 60% consistently, they would be able to support themselves by using Kelly's criterion..the problem is no one (that I know of) can actually do that over a LONG stretch of time



[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 5:42 PM. Reason : I had more to say]

9/28/2007 5:37:07 PM

I bet for recreation. I typically bet small amounts on each game, just enough to make me watch a game I normally wouldn't actually sit through to watch. I'm not trying to "break vegas" and I don't really keep up with how many wins and losses I have. I'm more interested in how much $ I'm winning or losing. I do bet more on lines I like better and less on games that are iffy. The money I put on games is the money I would spend at the bar or on a date/etc. So if I do go out on the weekend I typically bet less on games. My gambling $ comes out of my "entertainment bucket" so it's not a big deal if I lose it.


I am interested in coming up with a betting log that I can track my betting trends as well as certain vegas trends that are helpful in picking games. Anyone do something like this?

9/28/2007 5:46:01 PM

^yeah that is a healthy approach

can't help you with the trends though, I don't trust trends

9/28/2007 6:02:44 PM

Yeah I tend to think of trends are crutches people use to justify there bets, but with no real basis behind them, what teams did in the past 30 years doesnt really matter does it?

9/28/2007 6:14:58 PM

my theory or strategy is to bet a lot of games, for approximately the same value and just be patient. I figure that I will get more than 50% right so if bet 20 games a week, and bet the same for all of them, and win 11, I win money. Not a lot of money, but I win. Just have to be patient and build it up slowly. Now, that doesnt always happen... when I find a line I really really like I just cant help it (see Louisville -8). People get in trouble when they only do one or two games, put a shitload on them, lose, and then bet a shitload later that same weekend to "make up for it"... and you all know my feelings on parleys... its hard enough to win game by game, dont make yourself HAVE to win all of them...


I definitely do it for fun, gives me something to root for and if I win some money, sweet.


^^ and ^ Trends are really interesting to me... even the silly ones, but there does seem to be something to them at times. Like one really big one for the NFL that a lot of people use is always bet on a home, in-division, underdog. It hits at something like 85% over the last 30 years. However, there have been several times this year already where it didnt go through, but I still know people that will bet ANY game that fits this criteria no matter what their head tells them

[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 6:24 PM. Reason : d]

9/28/2007 6:21:58 PM

Yeah, I've never been into using trends to help bet..But I would like to organize my bets in a spreadsheet or something so I can see my strategies in black and white and see if I can improve on things.


^

I try to avoid the "Im betting hard on 2 early games, get in a hole and then bet hard in the afternoon to make up for it" But I've gotten in that cycle a few times.

One big problem I do have and I am trying to overcome it is this, Betting on games I know are iffy or are losers but just to have something to bet on. I've lost weekend profits because I won early and then made stupid bets just because I was "hot". I need to objectively look at each game and if it doesn't feel right, then lay off it.



[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 6:31 PM. Reason : .]

9/28/2007 6:27:56 PM

^ I started work on one a few years ago but always got sidetracked. It was more to track MY trends. Like if it shows that I am really good picking over/unders in the SEC, or picking ATS for USC games etc.

9/28/2007 6:30:13 PM

Quote :

"It was more to track MY trends. Like if it shows that I am really good picking over/unders in the SEC, or picking ATS for USC games etc."

That's kind of what I meant.. Tracking what trends I was losing/winning.

9/28/2007 6:34:14 PM

I had a good deal of it finished but not sure if I still have a copy around

9/28/2007 6:37:56 PM

I'm sure a lot of you already do this, but I use covers.com a shitload. I'll look at sportsbook for all the lines and write down all the bets I think are good ideas. Then I'll go over to covers and see if the majority of the "professionals" and the game threads agree with me. Also, covers has turned me onto some bets that I wouldn't even think of. For example, last week 11 on covers bet the over for the pats-bills games compared with 2 for the under. So I threw $10 on it, something small, and they were right. Using that site to check my bets against pros has really helped my pecentage lately (see my above post).

I still make some retarded, out of spite, bets though. Like VT -16.5 against chapel hill. That is a bet pretty much made out of hatred so again I only put a small amount on it.

9/28/2007 6:58:56 PM

^ where do you see stuff like that one there? I have looked at that site, but its so damn messy, I cant pick out the legitimate stuff and the stuff that just sends you on to another site

9/28/2007 7:10:29 PM

i'll include links.
here is the website. http://www.covers.com/index.aspx?t=0
hit nfl for example http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_main.aspx
on the right hit full scoreboard http://scores.covers.com/football-scores-matchups.aspx?t=0
then for example, look at the matchup for the texans-falcons game
this is on the left

Quote :

"Picks for Houston 7 Picks for Atlanta 4 Picks for the Over 8 Picks for the Under 2"

so for this game, betting the over is a good bet according to the pros. you can also look at the thread to see what actual people are doing. hope this helps.

9/28/2007 7:22:42 PM

Gonna test them out and take the under at 56.5

9/28/2007 7:28:55 PM

yeah, under was the only thing I have liked on this one... not sure what its at now but I got it at 55

9/28/2007 8:02:29 PM

I do something similar. You can see where the money is being laid on sportsbook.com

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/betting-trends.php?bt=nflodds

9/28/2007 8:05:01 PM

Quote :

"my theory or strategy is to bet a lot of games, for approximately the same value and just be patient. I figure that I will get more than 50% right so if bet 20 games a week, and bet the same for all of them, and win 11, I win money. Not a lot of money, but I win. Just have to be patient and build it up slowly. Now, that doesnt always happen... when I find a line I really really like I just cant help it (see Louisville -8). People get in trouble when they only do one or two games, put a shitload on them, lose, and then bet a shitload later that same weekend to "make up for it"... and you all know my feelings on parleys... its hard enough to win game by game, dont make yourself HAVE to win all of them... "

This used to be my thinking and is a good strategy if you just want to stay around even or make a small amount of money. I still do this a lot on weekends due to the sheer number of games. If in the long run your goal really is to make some money and you are good at reading the games, finding a line that seems real solid, putting a much larger amount on it, and just riding that is a much better idea. Now this involves having a larger bankroll and being able to STICK to it and NOT chase, you are gonna go through streaks where you lose a couple in a row, but you have to trust that you can win a couple in a row as well. My biggest problem has been sticking to that plan. Like I said I did this for about 2 months in college basketball a few years back and pushed a lot of money across because I hit around 75%, but I only bet one game a day that was my best pick rather than small amounts spread across 10 games. I guess it basically boils down to like I said do you wanna break even or make very small amounts, or do you have enough confidence in your best picks to roll with em.

9/28/2007 8:10:59 PM

well, I do far better than break even... and out of about 15 years of betting have only not came out ahead once at the end of the year

9/28/2007 8:20:16 PM

^^Its up to 56.5 on the site I use.

And I know this is a really off the wall game, but Ball St -13.5 at home vs Buffalo is looking pretty good I think.

I also am laying some money on...

LSU -41

South Carolina -13.5

Lousville -8.5

UGA -15

Kentucky -24.5

Oregon -6

9/28/2007 8:23:04 PM

Nutsack State should destroy buffalo, but I was worried about a letdown after going all out last week against Nebraska

9/28/2007 8:25:01 PM

I wonder why it is only 13.5 Does BSU have some injured players or something? That seems like a really low spread to a god aweful team like Buffalo.

9/28/2007 8:29:32 PM

lol at the public betting on the State/UL game.


93% is on Ul -8
86% is on UL straight up

9/28/2007 8:29:42 PM

Buffalo is a pretty horrid team though.. lol does look intriguing

9/28/2007 8:29:43 PM

It was reported yesterday (I think yesterday?) that Ball St.'s leading rusher tore his ACL against Nebraska last week, I think that is why the line has been sharply falling, it may continue to fall

9/28/2007 8:31:24 PM

Ah, well that makes some sense. But still, Buffalo is just SOOOOO bad.

9/28/2007 8:36:15 PM

im loving this defensive battle right now

9/28/2007 8:47:10 PM

how many damn turnovers have there been? 6?

9/28/2007 8:54:40 PM

Way too many for any WVU player to win the Heisman at this rate...

And I wouldnt call this a "defensive" battle, more like everyone forgot they arent supposed to give the ball to the other team battle haha

[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 8:57 PM. Reason : .]

9/28/2007 8:56:22 PM

Wow, I knew USF was a decent team, but DAMN.

9/28/2007 9:09:04 PM

They arent really that great, WVU is killing themselves over and over and over again.

9/28/2007 9:20:24 PM

I still don't know if I like the under 56.5 yet. With all these turnovers who knows.

I am tired of these guys referring to Pat White as a Heisman candidate. Every list I have seen this far into the season doesnt even have him in the top 5.

[Edited on September 28, 2007 at 9:29 PM. Reason : .]

9/28/2007 9:28:27 PM

Quote :

"ore like everyone forgot they arent supposed to give the ball to the other team battle haha"

true

9/28/2007 9:37:35 PM

Well if he was he isnt anymore

9/28/2007 9:39:00 PM