Page 8

Quote :

"we're gonna lose in 2026 and 2028 aren't we"

2026 despite trumps best efforts trying to get more seats in the house I think dems take control of house, but similar to 2022 where the losses weren't as bad as expected. Then dems will trip over themselves with such a small majority

2028 I can't see an outcome where Trump doesn't rig things in a manner that ensures his control of the country(seizing voting machines, crying fraud, disenfranchising voters with voter ID kinda stuff, insurrection act type stuff, using ICE/military to control things etc)

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 2:22 PM. Reason : More]

1/15/2026 2:20:49 PM

Quote :

"2028 I can't see an outcome where Trump doesn't rig things in a manner that ensures his control of the country(seizing voting machines, crying fraud, disenfranchising voters with voter ID kinda stuff, insurrection act type stuff, using ICE/military to control things etc)"

it's 100% a concern, but I wouldn't lean into the "he's 100% going to do it and it's 100% inevitable"

the bigger concern imo is that the Dems are probably going to put up another loser candidate while the fringes suck all the air out of the room with their loser messaging, and Vance or Rubio end up winning fair and square

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 2:29 PM. Reason : which is why i keep my focus on encouraging dems to get their act together. just like i tried to tell y'all in 23/24 that biden was gonna lose it for us but everybody was distracted]

1/15/2026 2:28:08 PM

^^
Yes Fox News would criticize it no matter what. Democrats could say “white people are the best” and Fox News would attack them for it. I feel like we all should learn by now not to worry too much about the Fox News crowd. Break through that — I see it happening online with Parker Malloy and that kid on cnn all the time. The genuine displays of anger like Frey in Minnesota etc.

At the same time we still need to attack and degrade Fox News as much as possible, hammer them with lawsuits and regulation etc..

Trump has never gotten more than 50% of the vote. Democrats don’t need to pick off much more people to win elections.

1/15/2026 3:25:01 PM

Quote :

"I feel like we all should learn by now not to worry too much about the Fox News crowd"

Like in 2024?

1/15/2026 3:35:45 PM

Biden should never have ran but Kamala was a cop. Kamala and mitt Romney are barely distinguishable.

1/15/2026 3:46:25 PM

Centrists have had every position of power for decades, progressives have never had a final presidential candidate and struggle to make to even statewide elections in most cases. But, somehow, they are also dominating primaries and at fault for Trump.

1/15/2026 4:32:47 PM

tutt-tutting over the poll-tested way to gently describe getting rid of Trumps gestapo is surely the way to win the hearts and minds of voters



[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 5:02 PM. Reason : .]

1/15/2026 4:40:22 PM

Quote :

"Centrists have had every position of power for decades"

correct. establishment moderates of both parties should have figured out why they lost the trust of Americans a long time ago.

Quote :

"MAKE ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIANS GREAT AGAIN this has been my central thesis for how many years now? if regular politicians will just be Excellent, then there won't be any need for the populace to decide they need to take a chance on populists."

Quote :

"progressives have never had a final presidential candidate and struggle to make to even statewide elections in most cases"

there's a reason they keep losing too. progressives should have figured out why they are not appealing to 80% of Americans a long time ago.

Quote :

"But, somehow, they are also dominating primaries and at fault for Trump"

dominating primaries???

they're "at fault" for trump in the sense that they kept pushing for unpopular policies and in the most obnoxious self-righteous ways possible.

Quote :

"The enlightened centrist logic is simple: if the left does something bad, it's the left's fault if the right does something bad, it's the right's fault if the centrist does something bad, it's the centrist's fault"

when the centrists do something bad (eg biden run for reelection), i say it's their fault. if there were people in TSB insisting biden was awesome, you would have seen me pushing back on them.

when the right does something bad (eg trump threaten to invade greenland), i say it's their fault. if there were people in TSB insisting we SHOULD invade greenland, you would see me pushing back on them.

when the left does something bad (insist on abolishing ICE instead of merely demanding "traditional American immigration enforcement"), i say it's their fault. and so y'all seeing me push back on it.

equal opportunity tutt-tutting

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 6:08 PM. Reason : poll-tested ways to win the hearts and minds of voters]

1/15/2026 5:59:16 PM

And when Benjamin Netanyahu's government does something bad (eg perpetuating a genocide), you say it's the Palestinian's fault. You push back on any blame on his regime.

1/15/2026 6:05:05 PM

Quote :

"dominating primaries???"

I'm literally responding to your tweets

It's also funny to keep getting popularity lectured since you are the definition of fringe centrist, supporting more than your share of heavily losing candidates

1/15/2026 7:32:45 PM

Quote :

"I'm literally responding to your tweets"

ah. you're referring to "This means the fringes of each party elect the candidates for the general election. This is not good."

i thought you meant "they are also dominating primaries" in the sense that the fringes are WINNING most of the primaries. fringe candidates are still only winning like ~10-30% of notable primary races depending on your criteria for "fringe".

i see the impact of the fringes on primaries more as a selective pressure in the ecosystem of primary candidates, and the downstream impact on general elections (eg stein vs robinson). fringe candidates can push more centrist candidates toward the fringe, or make them less likely to push back on fringe views.

Quote :

"It's also funny to keep getting popularity lectured since you are the definition of fringe centrist, supporting more than your share of heavily losing candidates"

that's a fair point. i suppose the difference is when my preferred primary candidates lose, or my preferred policy prescriptions don't have sufficient public support, i don't go around calling everybody names.

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 7:51 PM. Reason : oh hi nighthawk nice to see you. lemme help clear up your misunderstanding. when israel does bad things, it's israel's fault. when palestine (or we'll say specifically the palestinian leaders eg hamas) do bad things, it's those palestinian leader's fault. agreed?]

1/15/2026 7:50:07 PM

I mean i think bw the two of us you are definitely the one more inclined to call names

My preferred policies might suck but I think I'm pretty dang respectful here (these days anyway before someone digs my post history )

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 7:56 PM. Reason : E]

1/15/2026 7:56:19 PM

Quote :

"I mean i think bw the two of us you are definitely the one more inclined to call names"

have i called people names? I suppose it's possible in a moment of frustration I have. I am only human. you're welcome to dig through my post history and let me know when. I will retract and repent as appropriate.

Quote :

"My preferred policies might suck but I think I'm pretty dang respectful here"

I suppose you are.

Quote :

"We may not always agree on everything, but that is completely normal and ok and even beneficial and you generally treat others with respect and I'm glad for your presence on this site"

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 8:05 PM. Reason : allah yebarek feek wa yahdeek]

1/15/2026 8:05:40 PM

Wa Iyyakum

(I even let Google Ai give me that)

1/15/2026 8:35:33 PM

You guys hanging hugging out? Cause I'll hang hug out

1/15/2026 8:39:56 PM

If you can't look at what ICE is doing right now and see that it is fundamentally irredeemable, then I'm not sure what else there is to say. The agency's actions show that it is rotten to its core in a way that can't be fixed in any way. Everyone in it should be fired, with most of them prosecuted.

I want our immigration laws enforced. None of these people can be trusted with even a shred of that responsibility. To patrol the streets of America with masks and no identification and disappear people based on their fucking race is patently evil. Period. Full stop. To take part in that in any way whatsoever makes YOU fucking evil. There was no such thing as a "good" concentration camp guard. In the same way, at this point, there is no such thing as a "good" ICE agent. Fuck ICE. Fuck it to death.

1/16/2026 12:30:55 AM

A lot is going to happen between now and the midterms, let alone 2028, but at the moment "abolish ICE" has some legs. It's only been a week since Good's death, but there's already polls showing that most Americans disapprove of ICE:

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53892-after-the-shooting-in-minneapolis-majorities-of-americans-view-ice-unfavorably-and-support-major-changes-to-the-agency

A lot of people didn't like it to begin with. A lot more people dislike now that it has clearly moved away from its core function and towards being the paramilitary wing of MAGA. "Abolish ICE" because it is rotten all the way through and makes America less safe.

Quote :

"so people who say ABOLISH ICE should stop and start saying "if people immigrate here illegally, we will enforce our laws" instead."

When you get down to it, very few people actually want this. We can see that in the reaction to so many of the ICE kidnappings. People who came here with their parents as children, people who have been quietly working for years, people who are pillars their local communities, and lately, people who are trying to do things legally, they're all getting deported. Technically they violated the law. Virtually nobody likes it when these people get black-bagged and sent "home." The only ones who do are sickos that Democrats aren't ever going to win over.

Americans have this nebulous idea that somewhere there are millions of scary illegal immigrants. That's who they want gone. And there are undocumented people who do bad things. OK, so arrest them! Deport them for doing the bad things. That's what people want to see.

In general I don't think Democrats should spend a lot of energy on immigration as such, unless they're willing to go whole-hog. Make immigration reform the headline issue of the campaign, the big-ticket item you're going to railroad through at all hazards. And even then, focus on fixing the broken process rather than arguing about how many billions of dollars to give whatever agency replaces ICE.

1/16/2026 7:02:53 AM

They don't want this but they do want SOMETHING

1/16/2026 7:11:31 AM

After this last shooting I dont think many people are even thinking of ICE in an immigration context. Just a bunch of morons killing the opposition. You would think it would be relatively easy at this point for democrats to separate the two..

1/16/2026 7:41:31 AM

I was trying to make “Restrain ICE” or “Detain ICE” happen.

As far as defunding goes, it helps to be armed with the numbers:

2025 was one of ICE’s deadliest years with 32 people dead while being detained.
It’s estimated they are holding 70,000 people at any given moment right now at the end of 2025.
The Big Beautiful Bill allocated $12-$15Billion/year for the next few years. It’s estimated they can ramp up to detaining 135,000 at any given moment.
For reference the Federal Bureau of Prisons gets about $9Billion/year and houses 140,000-150,000 inmates.


So there is room for their deportation effort to essentially double. It could get way fucking uglier and cruel on the ground and in the streets. ICE deported 320,000 people in 2025 (maybe 600,000 if you include self deportations?). The MAGA vision is commonly reported as deporting on the order of 8-12 million people total. The goal is to double the effort of 2025, double the authoritarianism, and SUSTAIN THAT FOR ATLEAST A DECADE IN ORDER TO HIT THEIR MYTHICAL WHITE UTOPIA NUMBERS.

1/16/2026 8:18:09 AM

^Bureau of prisons statistic is pretty good piece of info! Nice comparison to think about

1/16/2026 8:40:46 AM

Quote :

"They don't want this but they do want SOMETHING"

Quote :

"I was trying to make “Restrain ICE” or “Detain ICE” happen. "

I think these are reasonable perspectives. There's a LOT of room between "let everybody into the country no matter who they are" and "shoot on sight anybody who might be suspected of being here illegally"

since this is a "messaging" thread, my CONCERN is that the "ABOLISH ICE" crowd, while legitimately upset about some of what they've seen from ICE, will come across (to both the MAGA crazies who are against immigration, but more importantly the normie voters who don't necessarily have anything against most immigrants but also don't want the border to be a free-for-all) either implicitly or explicitly as "ABOLISH ICE means zero immigration enforcement bc we don't trust ANY law enforcement agency and as you know we are super duper tolerant of all people so if somebody comes here and you try to say they they're illegal you must be a nazi white supremacist"

it is out of that concern that I say it's irresponsible messaging imo to just scream "ABOLISH ICE" all day. you've got to stake out your position somewhere in the middle and reassure the normie voters that you DO want and expect reasonable immigration enforcement, just not the "gestapo" kind.

Quote :

"When you get down to it, very few people actually want this."

people want enforcement at the border. people don't want masked ICE kidnappings.

Quote :

"Americans have this nebulous idea that somewhere there are millions of scary illegal immigrants. That's who they want gone."

I don't think most Americans think there are millions of scary illegal immigrants. some Americans do, of course, and it's a problem that they got fear-mongered into believing/worrying about that, but I think the legitimate concern that many more normie Americans have is something along the lines of "If the Democrats are so cavalier about letting 10M+ illegal immigrants into the country, and bc the Dems get so squirmy about turning anybody away, if it turns out .1% or 1% or 5% of illegal immigrants (whatever the number is, it doesn't much matter) end up committing violent crimes, or abusing the welfare system or hate America and are only here to destroy it from the inside, then we can't really trust the Democrats to keep America safe, no matter if the other 90-whatever% are just nice people who want to raise their families here and are grateful for the opportunity to live in America."

there's a sweet spot I'm trying to find where Democrats earn the trust and respect of voters to properly manage immigration policy and enforcement. Clearly Biden failed on that front. Obama maybe was fine, idk.

Quote :

"In general I don't think Democrats should spend a lot of energy on immigration as such, unless they're willing to go whole-hog. Make immigration reform the headline issue of the campaign, the big-ticket item you're going to railroad through at all hazards."

yeah maybe. I continue to think the economy and affordability is the winner, but we've put immigration on the backburner for decades and even if Obama was decent if not soft-spoken on immigration policy, there was still enough accumulated neglect to give Trump an angle to campaign on. so maybe Dems do need to Go Big on immigration policy. but if they do, and the extent of their "Go Big" is just more "ABOLISH ICE" i think it'll backfire bigly

1/16/2026 11:59:22 AM

MELT ICE is objectively the best catchphrase for the moment.

1/16/2026 12:07:48 PM

Quote :

"I don't think most Americans think there are millions of scary illegal immigrants. some Americans do, of course, and it's a problem that they got fear-mongered into believing/worrying about that,"

Fox News (and other right-wing media) pushes that narrative pretty hard. They constantly run stories about violent immigrants. I have a close relative that any time they encounter any criticism of ICE, their response is "You'd feel differently if somebody close to you was murdered by one of these illegal criminals". And they don't believe you when you tell them the vast, vast majority of immigrants have no criminal record. They assume most of them are violent thugs.

1/16/2026 1:02:45 PM

^^^
Kind of a short term thinking approach

If we can’t get foreign students and smart people and skilled people to want to come here gleefully the country will continue to wither away. Immigration was central to Americas success in the 20th century (Apple Google nvidia founded by immigrants, many other companies now run by immigrants) and without this we die. Part of this goal is showing the world we’re serious about democracy and freedom and abolishing ice will go a long way to this.

The border crisis in recent years wasn’t and isn’t an immigration policy problem. It’s a foreign policy and economic problem. I don’t know if it’s intended or unintended but I do see the trump tariffs and bombastic rhetoric as a net benefit for our neighbors in the medium term, and we need to continue to try and build stable democracies with thriving economies (open up Cuba and Venezuela as Obama was doing) in the rest of our landmass after Trump.

Obviously no one wants crime and criminals regardless of immigration status but that’s bad faith framing— democrats always fail when they try to operate within gop framing.

[Edited on January 16, 2026 at 1:11 PM. Reason : ]

1/16/2026 1:11:32 PM

Quote :

"I think the legitimate concern that many more normie Americans have is something along the lines of "If the Democrats are so cavalier about letting 10M+ illegal immigrants into the country, and bc the Dems get so squirmy about turning anybody away, if it turns out .1% or 1% or 5% of illegal immigrants (whatever the number is, it doesn't much matter) end up committing violent crimes, or abusing the welfare system or hate America and are only here to destroy it from the inside, then we can't really trust the Democrats to keep America safe, no matter if the other 90-whatever% are just nice people who want to raise their families here and are grateful for the opportunity to live in America.""

I think you're delusional. Seriously. In a quarter century of arguing with people about immigration I have never heard anyone say this or anything remotely LIKE this. Even if people DID think this - and again, nobody does - then the appropriate counter argument is that immigrants, documented or otherwise, are less likely to commit serious crimes than native born citizens, and contribute more in taxation and economy than they take in welfare.

The right and center aren't doing some kind of percentage based arithmetic here. They get fed images of "caravans," unwashed masses who look like they're going straight to a refugee center for free food and housing, and they get fed mug shots of gang members. That is the picture of "illegal alien." It is not their kid's soccer coach who was brought here when he was 3 years old. It is not the ice cream man who thought his paperwork was all done.

So give me a democrat who says, "I'm going to focus my law enforcement efforts on people who commit crimes that hurt people, regardless of where those criminals were born, because I don't think a murderer or rapist is better or worse based on which side of the Rio Grande they fell out on, and because not discriminating based on national origin is right and it is the American way. You know what isn't the American way? Flashbanging kids, teargassing grannies, and shooting mother's in the face in the name of rounding up your neighbors for the crime of being brown."

Give me a candidate that says that and doesn't let Republicans Grand the issue every time, who pushes back forcefully on their lies, and they'll win in a weak and I'll give my time and money to help them do it.

1/16/2026 3:00:06 PM