define worse. to me, worse = ice. non-event = rain, better = snow

when's today's stuff supposed to start? I want to beat the morons out of Raleigh

1/20/2016 2:44:24 PM

I think the 4-6pm time frame but looking at radar seems like it would be in the 5-6pm time frame.

1/20/2016 2:49:50 PM

Quote :

"dtownral, none of the models show that."

its per the weather forums talking about latest models, we will have a lot of rain Friday and warm temps so only net impact is snow on back end which will be only a dusting

1/20/2016 2:52:24 PM

Last I heard from the models was that RDU may not get above freezing for any of the event now resulting in everything being some frozen form...

1/20/2016 2:58:16 PM

only on the latest euro and everyone is leaning away from euro with latest runs

1/20/2016 2:59:46 PM

But Euro is known to be the best model, why would other people be trying to go away from it?

1/20/2016 3:03:13 PM

So far the Euro has done better than NAM, as far as temps, so think people are trying to find some middle ground.

Still too early to really predict much, will depend on how things shake out on the runs tomorrow. Just depends on if we get the warm up off the coast or not. I expect we'll see a mixture of everything over the course of the event.

Asheville and into VA are going to get one heck of a storm though.

[Edited on January 20, 2016 at 3:05 PM. Reason : .]

1/20/2016 3:03:13 PM

Quote :

"But Euro is known to be the best model, why would other people be trying to go away from it?"

i don't know the reasons, too many abbreviations i don't understand, but what i posted is highest confidence

1/20/2016 3:05:11 PM

here's my non-technical forecast I posted to Facebook for the common folk:

Quote :

"Here's my forecast in a nutshell: Don't even think about going to work Friday if you live in areas from western NC, north GA/northern SC, just about all of NC and definitely VA. If you gotta work, work from home. Saturday will likely be all snow for most of NC (even for eastern NC!), but roads will still be treacherous. Also, wind may be an issue for Saturday for areas with significant ice, may see widespread power outages. For the Triad: This storm is probably gonna start very late Thursday/early Friday right, likely as snow. Snow should hang on the longest in the NW NC/Triad until about noon, where a transition to sleet is likely. Some freezing rain may sneak in, but will likely be short-lived (except for areas east/south of Greensboro). After about 8pm, there will likely be a transition back to snow that will persist overnight and through most of Saturday. At this point, I think we are at least looking at 6-8" of snow for G-boro and higher totals towards the north/west. Sleet may end up close to an inch, and those totals will likely decrease to the north/west. For the Triangle: This will be an absolute mess. Snow will likely be the dominant precip type early on, but we'll likely see a quick transition to sleet/freezing rain by mid/late-morning which will likely last till the afternoon where the area may transition to all rain. Areas south and east of Raleigh will likely see rain earlier and persist longer into Fri night. Probably looking at totals >0.25" up to 1/2" of freezing rain & about the same for sleet. A transition to snow later in the evening (11pm?) will likely occur and last through the day Saturday (probably 2-3" of the white stuff). Charlotte: Will likely be similar to Raleigh, though northern areas of the metro (especially places like Salisbury) will likely see more freezing rain. Greenville (SC): Really not seeing much, perhaps a mix at onset early Friday that may last through the day, but I think rain may end up being the predominant precip type. Then back edge snow late Friday early Saturday till around noon Sat (your best bet for accumulations, IMO---probably won't be a whole lot though). Someone is getting a really bad ice storm out of this, but it's just hard to say exactly where. Precipitation type transition zones are tough to pinpoint even when less than 24 hrs out & sometimes the transition can be quite sharp. My guess is that areas west of Raleigh to Burlington, east/south of Greensboro, north/west of Charlotte will likely see that maximum swath of freezing rain/ice. BUT W-S/Greensboro is certainly in play if this zone shifts north. So that's my official non-technical forecast. The overall confidence is low on precip types & amounts, but the confidence is quite high this will be a major impact. Just use your best judgement and keep up with what your local NWS office is posting/tweeting---they operate 24/7 and have the technical expertise to make very informed decisions/forecasts about this upcoming event. GO OUT AND BUY YOUR MILK SANDWICHES ASAP!"

1/20/2016 3:09:22 PM

As I posted on page 82

Quote :

"Euro is the King....Cold Rain"

1/20/2016 3:26:01 PM

The American Weather forums during the lead-up to a major event are strikingly similar to a state football game thread.

1/20/2016 3:32:38 PM

^

1/20/2016 3:39:05 PM

Rain falling on top of that much snow/sleet/ice followed by snow is just gonna make for some super shitty travel conditions

1/20/2016 3:51:43 PM

^yup, not even worth getting out Fri/Sat (maybe even Sunday)

Get where you wanna be Thursday night and hold tight for the weekend

1/20/2016 3:53:23 PM

They won't let me in bank of america stadium that early.

1/20/2016 3:55:08 PM

RAH is all in. Changed Triangle forecast to all frozen...

1/20/2016 4:01:11 PM

Quote :

"They won't let me in bank of america stadium that early."

gold

1/20/2016 4:06:05 PM

^^frozen what

1/20/2016 4:22:12 PM

Fucking goddamn 12-24" forecast here in Roanoke. No ice forecast though...yet.

1/20/2016 4:25:33 PM

^^water

1/20/2016 4:28:02 PM

wunderground says 2.8" for RDU tonight

1/20/2016 4:28:51 PM

In other words no plain rain anymore. All precip is snow, ice, sleet or zr.

^ lol why?

[Edited on January 20, 2016 at 4:30 PM. Reason : X]

1/20/2016 4:30:19 PM

Raleigh dome is fully active, everywhere around wake county is showing snow.

1/20/2016 6:14:31 PM

Snowing in Carrboro

1/20/2016 6:17:27 PM

Flurries in Holly Springs

1/20/2016 6:20:58 PM

Latest update from RAH is what I said before, we won't see anything

0.1" ice and <1" of snow

1/20/2016 6:29:16 PM

Tonight or Friday?

1/20/2016 6:34:47 PM

[Edited on January 20, 2016 at 6:37 PM. Reason : Whoops.]

1/20/2016 6:36:38 PM

Ok thanks, sorry I am perpetually 10 posts behind in here

1/20/2016 6:37:32 PM

I was wrong. I'm pretty sure he's talking about tonight and Friday. The weather people are backing off: some places in Wake County will see a little snow but other places will see none, and there's gonna be a lot of straight up rain. (On Friday)



[Edited on January 20, 2016 at 6:43 PM. Reason : ]

1/20/2016 6:43:14 PM

Thursday-Fri-Sat

1/20/2016 6:44:40 PM

http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

Not sure what you saw. They increased it...

1/20/2016 6:48:41 PM

its increased for their coverage area, this area (downtown raleigh) is still just a trace

1/20/2016 6:52:22 PM

Dat 190% weather dome powahhh!!!

1/20/2016 6:52:27 PM

Raleigh dry slotted....no snow for ANYONE

1/20/2016 6:54:17 PM

Coming down pretty hard in Rocky Mount the front yard and driveway are already covered

1/20/2016 6:57:37 PM

Huffman's first call map. Will be updated tomorrow.

1/20/2016 7:48:26 PM

had some a little ice and very little snow here in johnston county about an hour ago...nothing now.

1/20/2016 8:03:48 PM

I say the temperature keeps trending downward as it already has and we end up in the J or hopefully the H sectionn

1/20/2016 8:11:37 PM

Stop the wishcasting. We'll get 2 inches of snow but then rain will wash it all away. Such is life.

1/20/2016 8:16:59 PM

Precip coming down now. It seems legit.

Icy roads tomorrow morning. Cancel life. We all stay home and watch Netflix. Baby boom and all that.

1/20/2016 8:23:19 PM

Not a flake in Apex

1/20/2016 9:01:24 PM

light snow in Knightdale

1/20/2016 9:02:07 PM

1/20/2016 9:21:29 PM

Damn. I'm already pregnant by a stranded motorist. I dunno what happened...he was just like really mysterious and stuff.

Work better be cancelled tomorrow.

1/20/2016 9:24:03 PM

hot

1/20/2016 9:36:56 PM

So wraparound snow at the end looks less certain, but we might have 1" of sleet

1/21/2016 6:20:21 AM

Seeing possibly 18-24" for where I am near Boone

1/21/2016 7:20:58 AM

this is trending away from winter weather. the precipitation is getting delayed which will put more of it during the time temps are above freezing. we will see at least 1" of rain which will clean up the first round of frozen precipitation (which is going to be mostly sleet) and it looks like maybe just a trace if anything now for the backend

west of us will get a lot, raleigh and eastern wake county not much

1/21/2016 7:55:06 AM

Yep im hearing "not as bad" on some of my weather source sites.

1/21/2016 8:09:19 AM