http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/06/21/wmd.threat/index.html

Quote :

"'High risk' of WMD attack in decade U.S. survey finds more nations will acquire nuclear weapons WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The chance of an attack with a weapon of mass destruction somewhere in the world in the next 10 years runs as high as 70 percent, arms experts have predicted in a U.S. survey. Most of the more than 80 experts surveyed in the report released on Tuesday believed one or two new countries will acquire nuclear weapons in the next five years, with two to five countries joining the nuclear club during the next decade. The survey, commissioned by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, also showed that four out of five people said their country was not spending enough on non-proliferation efforts. The most likely scenario for a nuclear attack would be for terrorists to use a weapon they made themselves with material acquired on the black market, the survey said. "The results underscore the need to improve security around tactical nuclear weapons and nuclear material in Russia and expand our ability to detect transfer of weapons or materials from rogue states to terrorist organizations," said a summary of a report outlining the survey results. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are designed to kill large number of people, using either nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological means. In 1991, in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, Republican Lugar and former Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn initiated a program to combat the proliferation threat posed by former Soviet states. In an introduction to the report he commissioned, Lugar said the success of that program proves the spread of WMD can be stopped by building "extraordinary international relationships." He said establishing a "worldwide system of accountability" for WMD could prevent terrorists from acquiring such weapons. "Even if we succeed spectacularly at building democracy around the world, bringing stability to failed states and spreading economic opportunity broadly, we will not be secure from the actions of small, disaffected groups that acquire weapons of mass destruction," Lugar said. "Everything is at risk if we fail in this one area." Rogue states Following the September 11 attacks on America, U.S. President George W. Bush made a bid to crack down on regimes who sponsor terrorists. In 2002 Bush labeled pre-war Iraq, Iran and North Korea as part of an "axis of evil." "By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger," he said at the time. The United States went to war against Iraq in 2003, claiming leader Saddam Hussein was maintaining clandestine stockpiles of nerve gas, biological weapons and secret nuclear weapons and missile programs. Washington has also been trying to get North Korea to come to the table to curb its nuclear ambitions. In February this year, Pyongyang said it possessed nuclear weapons. Bush has also said that Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. Tehran says its program is purely for the production of energy. 'Dirty bomb' The survey found that the most significant risk of a WMD attack was from a radiological weapon, or a so-called "dirty bomb," in which radioactive material is put into a conventional explosive device. The next highest risk was of an attack with a chemical or biological weapon, with a nuclear attack judged least likely. However, when the risks were combined to determine the probably of an attack with any form of WMD, the survey put the chances as high as 50 percent over the next five years, with the probability increasing to as high as 70 percent over the next decade. Among the experts who participated in the survey were Nunn; retired Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf; former defense secretaries William Cohen and Frank Carlucci; former CIA Director James Woolsey; former National Security Adviser Richard Allen; former Iraq chief weapons inspector Richard Butler; former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott; and David Kay, who led the hunt for WMD in Iraq after the fall of Saddam."

Sweet dreams, indeed.

6/22/2005 11:00:10 AM

Quote :

"Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran."

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/1

Bush has made us less safe.

6/22/2005 11:12:39 AM

^ I was waiting for that.

Of course, one could argue that Bush's use of force in dealing with WMDs could act as a deterrent to regimes pursuing them or contemplating their use, but that might mess up your self righteousness.

6/22/2005 11:26:51 AM

it also might be a logical fallacy.

bush's actions MIGHT have deterred other regimes from developing or using wmds, but there's no way to prove it.

Homer: Ah, not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working.
Lisa: That's specious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, honey.
Lisa: By your logic, this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Oh? How does it work?
Lisa: It doesn't work.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: It's just a stupid rock.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don't see any tigers around here, do you?
[pause]
Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock!

6/22/2005 11:33:55 AM

My point is that speaking in absolutes about it is awfully naive.

6/22/2005 11:36:48 AM

Quote :

"U.S. eliminates annual terrorism report By Jonathan S. Landay WASHINGTON — The State Department decided to stop publishing an annual report on international terrorism after the government's top terrorism center concluded that there were more terrorist attacks in 2004 than in any year since 1985, the first year the publication covered. "

Quote :

"Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's office ordered the report, "Patterns of Global Terrorism," eliminated weeks ago because the 2004 statistics raised disturbing questions about the Bush's administration's frequent claims of progress in the war against terrorism."

Quote :

"National Counterterrorism Center provided to the State Department reported 625 "significant" terrorist attacks in 2004. That compared with 175 such incidents in 2003, the highest number in two decades."

Quote :

"The statistics didn't include attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, which President Bush as recently as Tuesday called "a central front in the war on terror.""

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002243262_terror16.html

I believe I can back up my claim that Bush's policies have made us less safe.

6/22/2005 11:43:07 AM

Without even delving into the issue of whether or not the Bush administration has made us less safe, how does an ardent Bush supporter, or Republican supporter, or National Security supporter, respond to:

Quote :

"The survey, commissioned by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, also showed that four out of five people said their country was not spending enough on non-proliferation efforts."

6/22/2005 11:48:27 AM

^^ Obviously the policies are of the Bush administration are the only variable that have any influence on global trends.

^ I'm not an ardent Bush supporter, just an ardent supporter of the "Pryderi is a dumbass" party

[Edited on June 22, 2005 at 11:50 AM. Reason : .]

6/22/2005 11:49:05 AM

Quote :

"I'm not an ardent Bush supporter, just an ardent supporter of the "Pryderi is a dumbass" party brainless, post-stalking asshole."

6/22/2005 12:01:12 PM

LOL

6/22/2005 12:05:15 PM

^another brainless post, brought to you by Mr. Joshua

[Edited on June 22, 2005 at 12:12 PM. Reason : .]

6/22/2005 12:11:47 PM

Oh dag! I just got served!

6/22/2005 12:12:54 PM

CIA: Iraq now a bigger terrorist threat than Afghanistan/binLaden
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050622/pl_nm/security_iraq_cia_dc

US Figures Show Sharp Global Rise In Terrorism
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/26/AR2005042601623.html

United States: Losing the War on Terror
http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/terrorwar/analysis/2004/aprilharder.htm

Evidence that the US May Be Losing the Global War on Terror
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1501

US: Three Years On, War on Terrorism Looks Like a Loser
http://ipsnews.net/interna.asp?idnews=25437

”We have a stronger jihadi presence in Iraq today than in March 2003,” noted Roger Cressey, the former director for Transnational Threats in Bush's National Security Council at a briefing at the libertarian Cato Institute earlier this week.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0911-01.htm

The 'War on Terrorism': Winning or Losing? Losing.
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/brie...

Terror threat to US called 'significant' - Apr 27, 2005
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/04/27/terror.report /

Global terror attacks triple in 2004
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0428/dailyUpdate.html

Worldwide terrorism-related deaths on the rise
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5889435%20 /

US Losing the War on Terror in Iraq; The invasion of Iraq has increased, not decreased, the threat of terrorist attack
http://www.intellectualconservative.com/article2629.html

Occupation Made World Less Safe, Pro-War Institute Says
http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/terrorwar/analysis/2004/aprilharder.htm

Iraq Invasion Hurt War on Terror
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0719-10.htm

Musharraf: World more dangerous because of Iraq War
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/25/03544/7945

Blix Says Iraq War May Have Worsened Terror Threat
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0319-02.htm

Poll: Aussies, Brits, Italians say Iraq war increased terrorism
http://www.startribune.com/stories/1576/5027215.html

Iraq intervention increased threat of terrorism
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0409/S00127.htm

UK Government; Iraq war 'increased terror threat'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3451239.stm

Iraq war has swollen ranks of al Qaeda
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1063717,00.html

US State Department Corrects Report to Show Rise in Terrorism
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5264512 /

6/23/2005 8:19:30 AM

you can say he made us less safe because we now know about the threats. they were there before bush was in office (see 911).

ignorance is bliss isnt it pryderi

6/23/2005 9:19:59 AM

Quote :

"you can say he made us less safe because we now know about the threats. they were there before bush was in office (see 911). ignorance is bliss isnt it pryderi"

Yes. And the point of this thread is how the threats have increased under Bush's "leadership".

8/16/2005 1:41:39 PM

they haven't increased.

we're more aware.

8/16/2005 2:18:13 PM

jeebus, why do you continually bttt these threads by making a statement that contributes absolutely nothing to a discussion that is no longer going on?

8/16/2005 2:31:59 PM

Quote :

"they haven't increased. we're more aware."

Wrong. We've been tracking acts of terrorism since at least 1982.

Quote :

"Iraqi Chemical Stash Uncovered Post-Invasion Cache Could Have Been For Use in Weapons By Ellen Knickmeyer Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, August 14, 2005; A18 BAGHDAD, Aug. 13 -- U.S. troops raiding a warehouse in the northern city of Mosul uncovered a suspected chemical weapons factory containing 1,500 gallons of chemicals believed destined for attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces and civilians, military officials said Saturday. Monday's early morning raid found 11 precursor agents, "some of them quite dangerous by themselves," a military spokesman, Lt. Col. Steven A. Boylan, said in Baghdad. Combined, the chemicals would yield an agent capable of "lingering hazards" for those exposed to it, Boylan said. The likely targets would have been "coalition and Iraqi security forces, and Iraqi civilians," partly because the chemicals would be difficult to keep from spreading over a wide area, he said. Boylan said the suspected lab was new, dating from some time after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. "

[Edited on August 23, 2005 at 10:58 PM. Reason : http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/13/AR2005081300530_pf.html]

8/23/2005 10:54:44 PM

Quote :

"'High risk' of WMD attack in decade "

Yeah, it will probably be the US dropping another nuclear bomb.

8/23/2005 11:01:41 PM

On Texas.

8/23/2005 11:12:18 PM

on an unrelated note, Kinky Friedman is running for gov. of texas

8/24/2005 12:33:09 AM