should have told them to move the fucking town.

now they're gonna have to ghetto-rig the piece of shit town back together again like we have to do when we fuck up a home project.

Quote :

"Source: http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-usnola014406446sep01,0,2430709.story?coll=ny-nationalnews-headlines In the best of times, the levee and drainage canal system that protects New Orleans is an engineering marvel - 350 miles of water walls and 21 powerful pumping stations that have allowed a major American city to flourish in a below-sea-level saucer surrounded by water and swamp. But in the worst of times - like now, in the wake of a crushing assault from Hurricane Katrina - it is an engineering nightmare. And the Army engineers responsible for helping the city begin to bail itself out acknowledged as much yesterday, as they unveiled an unprecedented and untested plan to begin dropping 15,000-pound sandbags from Chinook helicopters to try to plug levee breaks as early as last night. The problem: The Army Corps of Engineers is resorting to a never-before-tried air operation to plug massive breaks in three canal levees because flooding is too deep to allow trucks to reach the breaches and the water is too obstructed by bridges and debris to reach the sites by barge. "We prayed that it would not go this badly," said Walter Baumy, chief engineer for the Corps' New Orleans office, in a briefing for reporters. "There was a plan in place and this is much more than was envisioned." In normal times, levees along Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west protect the low-lying city from floods. Drainage canals in the city collect water from storms and the spongy earth under the city, and pumping stations transfer it north to the lake, part of the Gulf of Mexico estuary system. The system, however, was designed for a Category 3 hurricane. Katrina was a Category 4. Its rain and surge pushed up the level of the lake. Water overtopped the drainage canal levees, scouring their footings from one side, pushing outward from the other, and causing at least three major breaches. "To use a football analogy, it goes down like a high-low tackle," explained John Hall of the Corps' Vicksburg, Miss., office. "You hit someone at the shoulders and at the ankles at the same time, he's going to go down." The breaches of as much as 300 to 400 feet Monday and Tuesday in three canals - the 17th Street Canal, the London Avenue Canal and the Industrial Canal - let massive quantities of water from the swollen lake flood 80 percent of the city. Yesterday, the Corps said water levels appeared to equalize, slowing or halting the seepage into the city. But the breaches have to be repaired to allow the water to be pumped out through the canals. Experts yesterday said the plan to use helicopters was innovative, but difficult. Although the Corps intends to use spotters to guide the copter crews, dropping bags from the air is not as precise as dumping stone and fill on the ground. The number of bags that have to be dropped to plug a break the length of a football field and 20 feet deep is massive. "Anything they can do will help, but they don't know if this will do it," said Peter Nicholson, head of a dams committee of the American Society of Civil Engineers' Geoinstitute. The Corps hoped to begin the air drop on the 17th Street Canal breach, on the city's west side, late yesterday, but was also working on other possibilities. One plan: Using rock and gravel to build up the land from the nearest passable roadway to the breach site, so heavy equipment will be able to pass over the flood waters. "We'll see how ... [the air drop] works," said Greg Breerwood, a Corps engineering deputy in New Orleans. "This seems to be the quickest and that's why we're using it." Plugging the breaches will mark only the first stage of draining New Orleans. The Corps also plans to create new breaches in some canals, at locations that will allow sections of the city covered by water to drain out to the lake by gravity. But the key to emptying the city will be the pumping stations. Every one of them is currently inoperable and there is no timetable for fixing them. "My opinion is that the stations were inundated," said Baumy. "They need to get in and do a little refurbishment, and get some electrical power to get them restarted." Beyond the immediate crisis, experts said Katrina seemed certain to trigger a new debate over a costly upgrade of New Orleans' system. "Sometimes," said Nicholson, "it takes a major disaster to loosen the purse strings in Washington." 80% Estimate of how much or New Orleans in under water."

another article: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9145473

9/1/2005 5:07:13 AM

It's an extremely sad situation, knowing how every single year we have hurricanes, that the system could only withstand a category 3? I mean are you kidding? It was only a matter of time? How stupid can one large group of people be?

9/1/2005 8:13:14 AM

Quote :

"How stupid can one large group of people be?"

ummm, i think we answered that one last year....



(note that i'm NOT saying that mistake is related at all to the storm/flooding/new orleans/etc, but demonstrating that yes, large groups of people can and will do extrememly dumb things)


[Edited on September 1, 2005 at 8:32 AM. Reason : .]

9/1/2005 8:29:52 AM

Quote :

""We prayed that it would not go this badly," said Walter Baumy, chief engineer for the Corps' New Orleans office, in a briefing for reporters. "There was a plan in place and this is much more than was envisioned.""

When engineers are praying, thats a bad sign.

9/1/2005 8:40:05 AM

Quote :

"It's an extremely sad situation, knowing how every single year we have hurricanes, that the system could only withstand a category 3? I mean are you kidding? It was only a matter of time? How stupid can one large group of people be?"

What do you design for? The the more or less likely scenario?

From 1851 to 2004:

-21 out of 273 hurricanes to strike the US have been category 4 or 5.
-A category 4 or 5 hurricane will hit the US about once every 7.3 years with category 4 hurricanes occuring roughly once every 8.5 years and category 5 every 51 years.
-A category 1,2, or 3 hurricane will hit the US about once every .6 years (1.7 a year).

-5 out of 49 hurricanes to strike LA have been category 4 or 5.
-A category 4 or 5 hurricane will hit LA about once every 30.6 years with category 4 hurricanes occuring roughly once every 38.3 years and category 5 every 153 years.
-A category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane will hit LA about once every 3.5 years.

Somebody (meaning politicians when the COE asked for funding) probably decided that it was cheaper to repair the damage from a category 4 or 5 hurricance every 30 years than to build and maintain a levee system over the same period.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.shtml

[Edited on September 1, 2005 at 9:34 AM. Reason : sources]

9/1/2005 9:31:57 AM

typically you would design for a 50 or 100 year storm. i would say AT LEAST 100 year especially when it is this crucial.

9/1/2005 9:58:12 AM

drove my chevy to the levee but the levee was gone

9/1/2005 10:14:00 AM

definition of a 100 year storm for us weather-challenged people: http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/stormwater/flood-storm.php

Quote :

"from another site: a hundred year storm is not a hundred years long, it’s simply a storm that is so bad it’s only likely to occur every hundred years. And there have been a lot of them in the past few years which some think may be due to global warming"

Quote :

"drove my chevy to the levee but the levee was gonedry"

lol madonna is the next nostradamus

9/1/2005 10:14:02 AM

Quote :

"a hundred year storm is not a hundred years long"

hahaha

9/1/2005 10:19:53 AM

Do engineers not listen to Zeppelin?

Quote :

"Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good, Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good, When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move."

[Edited on September 1, 2005 at 10:38 AM. Reason : Robert Plant for FEMA director]

9/1/2005 10:36:37 AM

madonna?

how bout don mcclean?

9/1/2005 11:19:57 AM

^ I couldn't tell if he was joking or not. Either way, it weirded me out.

9/1/2005 11:21:14 AM

nope, i officially n00bed myself.

i just clicked on the first google hit. fucking inaccurate searches.
http://www.seeklyrics.com/lyrics/Madonna/American-Pie.html

9/1/2005 11:33:10 AM

well, she did do a shitty remake of this immortal song.

but it does not deserve to be acknowledged.

9/1/2005 11:37:14 AM

AHAHAH THAT FUCKER SAID MADONNA AHAHHAHA

9/1/2005 11:52:43 AM

i don't listen to that kinda music haha

and it was partially true

and back to the motherfuckin topic at hand, ho.

9/1/2005 12:21:33 PM

Quote :

"drove my chevy to the levee but the levee was dry"

From Wikipedia,

Quote :

" In addition, the singer drives a Chevy to the levee; Chevrolet was an American company at a time when foreign cars were very popular. Some believe that the reference to "rye" may mean Rye, New York with "The Levee" being the name of a bar in nearby New Rochelle, New York where McLean and his friends mourned the death of Buddy Holly. "

Who knows, that song has way too much symbolism and too many metaphors.

[Edited on September 1, 2005 at 12:39 PM. Reason : ^ hahahaha madonna]

9/1/2005 12:39:33 PM

madonna. the first time i LOLed today

9/1/2005 1:10:34 PM

Quote :

"Somebody (meaning politicians when the COE asked for funding) probably decided that it was cheaper to repair the damage from a category 4 or 5 hurricance every 30 years than to build and maintain a levee system over the same period."

So it is cheaper to rebuild an entire city than it would have been to build and maintain Class 4 or 5 protection over some time frame?

Quote :

"What do you design for? The the more or less likely scenario? From 1851 to 2004:"

I know for one thing your stats are skewed WELL away from global warming effects, which at this point seems to be the most likely candidate for the rapidly increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes.

I just don't see how this isn't a no brainer.

Class 4 or greater storm at some point wipes out an entire city and takes down a port which if they don't get things back on track and quick could very well kick off a bit of a recession is less expensive than building and maintaining a levee system to protect against this? It doesn't take much thought to realize which is more expensive, that is, unless I am SEVERELY underestimating the cost of the class 4/5 protection.

9/1/2005 1:59:13 PM

Quote :

"So it is cheaper to rebuild an entire city than it would have been to build and maintain Class 4 or 5 protection over some time frame?"

I don't know and neither do you. The people whose job this is (COE) do know. They advise politicians, who then make a decision on what they want to fund. You can say that they made the wrong decision, but you don't have the data to back it up.

Quote :

"I know for one thing your stats are skewed WELL away from global warming effects, which at this point seems to be the most likely candidate for the rapidly increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes."

Prove it. Prove to me that my stats, which are from NOAA's National Hurricane Center, are wrong. Prove to me that the NHC has miscounted the number of hurricanes to strike the United Sates. As for global warming, I call bullshit: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G4.html

Quote :

"It doesn't take much thought to realize which is more expensive"

Well, apparently it does. If you're going to make a statement like this, show me numbers. Show me numbers for the cost of a more robust levee system, the cost of rebuilding/repairing damage, the monetary loss to the economy each day.

9/1/2005 2:35:41 PM

Quote :

"Prove it. Prove to me that my stats, which are from NOAA's National Hurricane Center, are wrong. Prove to me that the NHC has miscounted the number of hurricanes to strike the United Sates. As for global warming, I call bullshit: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G4.html"

For starters, sir, I never said anything about your stats being wrong. Of course my argument rested on global warming being the effect, since I'll let your unproven theory about it in your link stand, I'll attack this from a different angle, and this (the party DirtyGreek quoted)

http://www.brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=346020&page=1

pretty much destroys:

Quote :

"I don't know and neither do you. The people whose job this is (COE) do know. They advise politicians, who then make a decision on what they want to fund. You can say that they made the wrong decision, but you don't have the data to back it up. "

This statement in rebuttal to my "cost of A vs B" argument rests on the idea that the decision was made in black and white A vs B. The reality is that isn't the case at all and the COE with pressure from the current admin. took money away to fund the war effort.

In particular:

Quote :

"Over the next 10 years, the Army Corps of Engineers, tasked with carrying out SELA, spent $430 million on shoring up levees and building pumping stations, with $50 million in local aid. But at least $250 million in crucial projects remained, even as hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin increased dramatically and the levees surrounding New Orleans continued to subside. Yet after 2003, the flow of federal dollars toward SELA dropped to a trickle. The Corps never tried to hide the fact that the spending pressures of the war in Iraq, as well as homeland security -- coming at the same time as federal tax cuts -- was the reason for the strain. At least nine articles in the Times-Picayune from 2004 and 2005 specifically cite the cost of Iraq as a reason for the lack of hurricane- and flood-control dollars."

Now I don't know what kind of protection this would have gotten NO, or if it would have even been enough, but we are talking ~1 billion here. ~1billion << ~20bill? 30bill? 40bill?


The real cost of this will come out in due time and I'll be vindicated I have plenty of confidence. You don't have know numbers at all to make the assumption that the devastation from this hurricane (this isn't to say more won't be coming) will far and away surpass any cost it would have taken to protect NO from it.

[Edited on September 1, 2005 at 3:57 PM. Reason : x]

9/1/2005 3:56:41 PM

Quote :

"For starters, sir, I never said anything about your stats being wrong."

Excuse me, then; show me how my stats are skewed.

Quote :

"since I'll let your unproven theory about it in your link stand"

It's not 'my' theory. It's called science, and it's done by people who study hurricanes and the climate professionally. Interestingly enough, it even refers to studies from the UN.

Quote :

"This statement in rebuttal to my "cost of A vs B" argument rests on the idea that the decision was made in black and white A vs B. The reality is that isn't the case at all and the COE with pressure from the current admin. took money away to fund the war effort."

Sure, funding has been cut in the past two years. However, the decision on what to build (i.e. category 3 protection) was made in 1995. That's ten years ago. That's long before "the current admin. took money away to fund the war effort." Neither George Bush nor the war in Iraq had anything to do with the decision to build category 3 protection vice category 4 or 5. Additionally, there was a thirty year delay between recognizing a need for protection and the beginning of action to address that need.

Somebody (a group of politicians) made a decision, without pressure from Iraq or Bush, to build a levee system that could only withstand category 3 hurricanes. And I'm sure that a large factor in that decision was the cost of the levees versus the cost and probabilty of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Quote :

"The real cost of this will come out in due time..."

I'm still not convinced that the cost of this will be as great as you seem to think it will be.

9/1/2005 4:44:24 PM

Quote :

"I'm still not convinced that the cost of this will be as great as you seem to think it will be."

what do you consider a great cost then? This looks to be a $30-$50billion+ storm, not to mention the death and hardship, which is completely intagible.

I'm with TypeA on this one - building a levee is certainly a several hundred million$ project, maybe a billion or two. Considering they already had a significant system built, and they would just have to strengthen and add to it, this probably would be a significantly easier task than Boston's Big Dig, or the floating airport in Japan/Asia. Even given the odds that a Cat 4-5 hurricane will only hit every 50 years, you're betting a one time precautionary cost of ~$1billion + maintenance of maybe $10's of millions/year (or less - numbers completely out of my ass) vs. a $30billion cleanup project + 100/1000's of deaths every 50 years. I'll err on the side of caution on this one..... It's not that politicians didn't know this would be catostrophic if it happened - it's that they took a calculated risk that it wouldn't happen on their watch, and they sure as hell weren't going to be the ones to raise taxes and ask the city to fund a billion dollar project.

9/1/2005 5:03:45 PM

remember, this was only a cat 4 storm when it finally made land fall. cat 4 storms hit every what... 7.3 years according to those somewhat dated statistics?

9/1/2005 5:07:44 PM

Quote :

"what do you consider a great cost then? This looks to be a $30-$50billion+ storm, not to mention the death and hardship, which is completely intagible."

Yes, in absolute terms, the cost will be large. However, I don't think that there's going to be a recession, I don't think the world is going to end, and I don't think that civilization will simply cease to exist. Even at $50 billion, the cost is still less than .5% of GDP. The gas/oil pipelines are opening back up, the refineries were spared significant damage (just a lack of electricity), and the vast majority of oil wells in the Gulf were spared. Additionally, what about the huge number of jobs that will be created by the construction boom that will start soon?

As for the cost of death and hardship, you're right: no one can put a price on that. But I would argue that the majority of deaths were easily avoidable. Also, being shot, robbed or looted is not be a hurricane hazard.

Quote :

"It's not that politicians didn't know this would be catostrophic if it happened - it's that they took a calculated risk..."

You're exactly right. They weighed costs and benefits and made a calculated risk. With a 10+ year project (and a 30 year discussion leading up to it), I would doubt that concern about something happening on their watch was a large factor.

Quote :

"cat 4 storms hit every what... 7.3 years according to those somewhat dated statistics?"

With respect to New Orleans, category 4 storms hit Louisianna every 38.3 years. A category 4 or 5 hurricane strikes the US about once every 7.3 years. In what way are these statistics dated? They include data through the end of the 2004 season.

9/1/2005 5:48:54 PM

So I have heard estimates of 150 billion now for the final bill. Congress just passed 50+ billion (was that on top of the original 10?).

Are you still sticking to your guns that I can't make a guess that it would have been cheaper to beef up the levees?

Keep in mind this is the first time I mention the inability to put a cost on human life.

9/8/2005 10:34:26 PM

fuck that. i can put a price on human lives.

softy.

9/8/2005 11:01:19 PM

haha

address the rest of the argument

leave the humans out of the equation

YOU STILL LOSE

9/8/2005 11:18:48 PM

there is a price on human lives

isnt an abortion like 300 dollars?

9/9/2005 6:37:12 AM

na its around 1000

9/9/2005 6:50:43 AM

hAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAHA... price on human lives


hahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahha....lol

LOL

LMAO

ROLFLMAOLOLWJO

YOUR SO FUNNY HAHAHAHHAAHA

9/9/2005 8:52:23 AM

aight ng_s,

about 10 years ago they were going to build a levee system for 20billion. but never did.

now they gave 10.5 billion + 52.5 billion in relief

-------------------

20 billion < 63 billion IMHO

9/9/2005 8:54:39 AM

That $20billion levee would've broke too, eventually.

9/9/2005 10:17:43 AM

And your Mom's levee broke pretty hard too now didn't it?

9/9/2005 10:32:33 AM

To all of those that throw blame on whoever for not reinforcing the levees/budgeting to do so:

Remember that Futurama episode where they are delivering the oil tanker with 6000 hulls? Remeber the part where it hits the iceberg and rips open? Fry laments that "If only they designed the tanker with 6001 hulls" (more or less).

Do you understand the humor in that statement......at all?

9/9/2005 2:27:55 PM

yes, funny, haha. irony and satire noted.

but there is a significant statistical chance a category 4 or 5 hurricane will hit New Orleans every X years and the levee was still built to only withstand a category 3.

Planning for the long-term:
[(chance cat 4-5 hurricane hits in next 50 years) * (cost to reinforce levee)] >> (cost of cleanup and death after a single cat 4-5 hurricane hits)

Unfortunately, this is how politicians make decisions, and this whey we're in this situation:
[(chance cat 4-5 hurricane hits in next 4 years when I'm in office) * (cost to reinforce)] < (cost of cleanup)

9/9/2005 3:41:00 PM

The only way to ensure protection of NO from future Cat 4/5 hurricanes is by building it somewhere that isn't below sea level - it was a costal town for petes sake - coast - below sea level - do the math.

9/9/2005 3:56:06 PM

NO BUT FOR REAL!! I SAW A CATEGORY 11ty BILLION HURRICANE ONCE!! AND THERE WERE 2 AT THE SAME TIME. IT WAS SO COOL.

I think THEY NEED TO PUT A SUPER FORCEFIELD AROUND THE ENTIRE WORLD AND KEEP THE ALIEN HURRICANES FROM ATTACKING ALSO

9/9/2005 5:29:59 PM

So I have heard estimates in excess of 200 billion now.

Not to mention Rita has fucked them up again.

I think I won this thread.

9/23/2005 11:57:13 AM

I haven't heard a $200 billion estimate, but OK. How much of this is solely due to flooding from a failed levee in New Orleans? After all, the biggest levee in the world wouldn't have stopped all of this.

Still, as you and I both mentioned, politicians made a calculated risk--probably using agentlion's how-to-make-a-political-decision-about-spending-money model.

The overall effect on the nation's economy will still be somewhat minimal, though that could change based on Rita.

Quote :

""If only they designed the tanker with 6001 hulls""

Fry is onto something.

9/23/2005 12:46:30 PM

Quote :

"A category 4 or 5 hurricane will hit LA about once every 30.6 years with category 4 hurricanes occuring roughly once every 38.3 years and category 5 every 153 years."

so much for stats

or did they mean 30.6 days

9/23/2005 1:16:59 PM

Quote :

"After all, the biggest levee in the world wouldn't have stopped all of this. "

This is clearly the dumbest thing you have said in the entire thread.

9/23/2005 1:27:21 PM

^^ haha

Quote :

"Zoidberg: "All 6000 hulls have been breached!" Fry: "Oh, the fools! If only they'd built it with 6001 hulls! When will they learn?!""

9/23/2005 1:29:26 PM

^^ Are saying that, if the levee was big enough the damage would have been $0?

The levee is designed to prevent flooding in New Orleans. It is not meant to stop hurricanes. It can't stop the wind. It can't prevent damage in other states or even other parts of New Orleans, for that matter.

You can not attribute $200 billion in storm damages to the failure of a single levee.

[Edited on September 23, 2005 at 1:51 PM. Reason : ]

9/23/2005 1:50:41 PM

Ok, I thought you might have been getting at that but your wording wasn't clear.

9/23/2005 2:01:08 PM