My sister, 10 years younger than me, is growing up with DVDs,

Any conjecture as to what's next?

5/30/2006 12:53:43 PM

HD-DVD...duh

All media after that will probably be streamed from the internet or some sort of digital recording/storage device a la DVR.

5/30/2006 12:56:35 PM

HD-DVD is already pretty much here. surely they're'll be something better in another 10 years?

do you think we'll have enough bandwidth 10 years down the road to stream an entire movie? i did talk to a guy a while back who things everything is going to be streamed to thin clients a few years down the road...

5/30/2006 12:59:15 PM

Fuck a thin client. I use one of those at work. Thing is unbelievably slow.

5/30/2006 1:06:05 PM

my first tv didnt have a remote control

5/30/2006 1:06:29 PM

hd? blu-ray?

5/30/2006 1:25:37 PM

5/30/2006 1:53:24 PM

fuck a virtual reality

i can't wait for reality

5/30/2006 1:58:18 PM

haha, anyone remember "virtual boy" that thing gave me migranes.

5/30/2006 3:47:31 PM

[Edited on May 30, 2006 at 3:51 PM. Reason : double post]

5/30/2006 3:51:06 PM

Quote :

"they're'll"

hahaha

5/30/2006 3:52:09 PM

well, they are will be something better in 10 years, that's for sure.

5/30/2006 4:17:50 PM

Quote :

"do you think we'll have enough bandwidth 10 years down the road to stream an entire movie?"

An entire movie as opposed to some short segment of it? We're talking about streaming here.

5/30/2006 4:28:53 PM

TIVO's will reign supreme

your clothes will come with embedded, upgradable memory

cars will act as WiFi signal repeaters

dogs will has GPS tracking devices implanted at birth

..and so will rich white babies..


also, nipples rings will double as cell phones

5/31/2006 10:21:38 AM

IN THE YEAR 2000!

5/31/2006 10:29:56 AM

VHS was around for 20-25 years before something else really replaced it as the standard.

How long has the DVD format been out?

5/31/2006 10:38:10 AM

Quote :

"do you think we'll have enough bandwidth 10 years down the road to stream an entire movie?"

Yes, I personally can't wait to move to a system where you never own a physical copy of the movie. Then the movie industry can finally move to the licensing that they have always dreamed of... charging people every time they watch a movie.

^

Quote :

"The first pressed DVD release was the film Twister in 1996."

10 years, although they really didn't start catching on until 1999. It took a long time to phase out VHS. I'm going to hold on to DVDs until the end. I don't feel like I'm getting all that great a benefit in moving from DVD to HD-DVD considering the 50% price increase ($30 HD-DVD v. $20 DVD). The leap from VHS to DVD was much more significant and worthwhile IMO.

[Edited on May 31, 2006 at 11:00 AM. Reason : -]

5/31/2006 10:39:53 AM

^yeah, screw the idea that a computer crash can erase my entire movie collection

i'll stick with dvds until the bacteria eats them

i like the idea of passing my movies on to my kids, and having it be almost 100% lossless

5/31/2006 11:05:05 AM

^^ I'm not sure I believe that. I've seen some OLD asian dvds.

5/31/2006 11:15:15 AM

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVD:

Quote :

"The first DVD players and discs were available in November 1996 in Japan, March 1997 in the United States, 1998 in Europe and in 1999 in Australia. The first pressed DVD release was the film Twister in 1996. The film had the first test for 2.1 surround sound. The first titles released in the U.S., on March 19, 1997, by Lumivision, authored by AIX Entertainment, were IMAX adaptations: Africa: The Serengeti, Antarctica: An Adventure of a Different Nature, Tropical Rainforest, and Animation Greats."

Of course that doesn't make it right.

5/31/2006 11:20:28 AM

dvds will probably be replaced by some more computer friendly media, movies are more or less following the exact same line as music: tapes, digital discs, digital files

5/31/2006 11:24:41 AM

Quote :

"HD-DVD is already pretty much here. surely they're'll be something better in another 10 years?"

HD-DVD and Blu-ray arent "pretty much here". Discs have only been available for a little over a month, and titles are very limited. Neither will be "here" until theres a substantial market penetration, and that will be quite awhile, as the % of people that can use this technology is nowhere near the % of people that could benefit from the upgrade to DVD 7 years ago.

5/31/2006 11:37:50 PM

heh, people are basically suggesting obvious shit that's going to happen in a year or two if it hasn't already.

article from 10 years ago on latest storage tech
http://sunsite.uakom.sk/sunworldonline/swol-02-1996/swol-02-storage.html

cd rom drives were 1k. There was one mention of DVD, no mention of burnable disks. It's safe to say that 10 years from now that we will not be restricted to the "stones throw" type of storage people are mentioning here.

Sure bets are anything we have now miniaturized a lot. Another good way is to think about something with all of the advantages of today's new technology without any of the hassles.

Syncing data between different locations is a real hassle now. I expect complete internet storage or a system that prevents you from having to sync up disparate memories. (zeroconf, wireless, internet connected, large thumb drive that can hold your OS and everything?)

This is a lot better than trying to sync my computer at home, with one at work, with ipod, with cellphone, with my car.

The complete internet storage raises another possibility - if my whole computer is stored on a remote server, why can't I also have personal, remote IT services. If i get a virus, my IT person wherever takes care of it. If I need something installed, I just order it and they take care of it. If the security issues can be overcome, I can see companies wanting to completely outsource their IT departments.

[Edited on June 1, 2006 at 12:22 AM. Reason : yu]

6/1/2006 12:01:58 AM

im not very knowledgable about the future of this all... but couldnt they just put movies, cds, tv shows, etc on a USB thumb drive? Then you wouldnt have to worry about scratching a cd/dvd.

They could write protect the drive somehow so nothing can be copied (at least not as easily)

then your movie/cd collection could be a giant keyring of usb drives that contain different movies/cds... that could be great quality and small size

what do u think? im sure there are too many flaws

6/1/2006 2:45:03 AM

Quote :

"The leap from VHS to DVD was much more significant and worthwhile IMO."

i agree

6/1/2006 2:48:34 AM

Quote :

"The complete internet storage raises another possibility [...]"

That's a whole thread by itself ... feel free to start one up

Good information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_DVD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc

6/1/2006 6:25:41 AM

Quote :

"then your movie/cd collection could be a giant keyring of usb drives that contain different movies/cds..."

The only problem with that would be the cost of the hardware that each movie came on. I'm sure people will correct me where I am wrong but isn't that one of the reasons the Nintendo 64 didn't do so well? They had a high production cost associated with their cartridges where everyone else that used discs could basically press a metric ton of discs at a trivial cost.

You'd also have to have a thumbdrive with a 30GB capacity. With a 1GB thumbdrive going for what $40 I'd imagine a thumbdrive with a 30GB capacity (if there were such a thing) would be really expensive; however, I could see making movies available for download and also providing an empty thumbdrive with a 30GB capacity that could be used to transfer a movie from an in store kiosk to your home computer for people still stuck on dialup. Then you wouldn't have any keyring/something taking up shelf space. You'd just double click on a file and *poof* the movie starts up.

The only concern with that is what happens to your collection when your hard drive crashes and burns? I'd stick with DVDs. You can always put them on a PC and you can keep them as backup. Plus the size is small enough to not take up too much space but not as small as a thumbdrive to the point where you could easily lose it (or wash and dry it in the laundry )

[Edited on June 1, 2006 at 11:01 AM. Reason : -]

6/1/2006 10:50:25 AM

here is the thing with hd

dvd made movies look better on any tv

there is basically no debating that

blu/hd-dvd is only going to affect a small (but certainly growing) portion of people

i think they should have waited until the FCC actually forces the switch from analog to ALL digital broadcast

but noooooooo

6/1/2006 11:00:24 AM