http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14206642/
... happens. According to an article I read last week, troops that are on the ground say that a civil war has already begun. The nightly rapes, tortures, and shootings that are occuring sure seem like signs of a civil war to me.

My bet is that in a few weeks this "contigency" plan will turn in to "an announcement that Iraq is in all-out civil war" and we will pull out.

They might also wait until late August - early September to make this announcement, depending on economic factors and concerns over various people being re-elected.

8/7/2006 6:06:39 PM

Bush is not going to pull out, its foolish to think so

8/7/2006 6:10:26 PM

he said like last week that by the time his presidency is up all the troops still wont be back yet

8/7/2006 6:15:54 PM

the logistics of that alone would take longer than his term left as president.

8/7/2006 6:18:08 PM

Quote :

"the logistics of that alone would take longer than his term left as president."

Are you kidding? I don't think it would take too much time at all to cut and run. However, we aren't going to do that.

8/7/2006 6:34:30 PM

civil war...

what a convenient excuse

8/7/2006 6:49:20 PM

i thought they were going to welcome us with flowers.

8/7/2006 8:02:40 PM

Hey, civil war is better than Saddam in power!!!

/Republican

8/7/2006 8:18:00 PM

We will pull out.

Civil war is an excuse to cover up the fact that his plan to bring democracy failed and to bring troops back to the states.

Moms, would you rather have lost the Iraq war or have a dead kid? That's an easy enough answer for most families.

8/7/2006 8:59:33 PM

sounds about right...its the oldest trick in the book...the british did this in india...realized that they were getting there asses kicked...created civil unrest amongst the uneducated population...this caused a once unified hindu and muslim cause turned on one another, while the british left through the back door...british all the while still made it look if they were the victors...after all they helped in creating pakistan...the same thing is happening in Iraq...us troops are facing stronger opposition daily...its a lot easier to insitigate a civil war amongst shias and sunnis...and get out of the country looking like the victors...because after all we did get rid of saddam

8/7/2006 11:55:17 PM

bush isnt pulling out of anything but barbera

8/8/2006 1:49:20 AM

Quote :

"sounds about right...its the oldest trick in the book...the british did this in india...realized that they were getting there asses kicked...created civil unrest amongst the uneducated population...this caused a once unified hindu and muslim cause turned on one another, while the british left through the back door...british all the while still made it look if they were the victors...after all they helped in creating pakistan"

1. there were always divisions in india. the muslim league and gandhi and even nehru were constantly at odds over the question of hindustan/pakistan.
2. the british couldnt afford to govern india effectively after ww2 due to extensive damage to their homeland through german bombing campaigns.
3. the british created unrest by attacking peaceful demonstations, yes. how did they drive a split in the country? this occured due to conflicting muslim/hindu interests and political factioning. the brits didnt create the religious conflict.
4. if i remember correctly, the pakistan partition was made at the request of nehru's delegation and pressure from the muslim league. im not positive though.

I never understood why the US never encouraged a partition of Kurdistan/Pakistan. Does Turkey still care that much?

8/8/2006 1:57:30 AM

You must be crazy. The British catalysed the division of India as a last resort to preserve their rule.

http://sasw.chass.ncsu.edu/fl/faculty/taj/hindi/part1/sld001.htm

8/8/2006 2:08:40 AM

Quote :

"The All India Muslim League, led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah had become the prime political opponent of the Congress. The League demanded a separate Muslim state, and enjoyed the support of many of India's Muslims. Nehru and the Congress Party strongly opposed India's partition, or any excessive political concessions to the League to prevent this. The party accepted the May 16 Plan proposed by the Cabinet Mission led by Sir Stafford Cripps as the only resort to preventing India's division as proposed in the June 16 plan. Although the May 16 plan envisioned communal grouping of India's provinces, the Congress accepted to keep the League from usurping control of the new interim government. "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jawaharlal_Nehru

The first post was from my fuzzy memory, but the Muslim League was pretty set on there being a partition. Nehru desired a united India, my bad.

Much like the partition of Ireland, a partition helped prove British power over its colonies. However, these partitions were not fully carried out on British interests, as there was solid (while not nationally in the majority) support from a good majority of Pakistan, as there was in Northern Ireland.

[Edited on August 8, 2006 at 2:19 AM. Reason : .]

8/8/2006 2:15:26 AM

The Muslim league was instigated by the British...who also instigated the Congress...that they should work on the 2 nation theory.

It was a battle to repel any future mutiny like that of 1857

Read more


Gandhi and the Congress were actually friends of the Muslim League in 1918

http://sasw.chass.ncsu.edu/fl/faculty/taj/hindi/part1/sld012.htm

[Edited on August 8, 2006 at 2:21 AM. Reason : .]

8/8/2006 2:20:01 AM

civil war is on the march

8/8/2006 3:30:52 AM

Quote :

"I never understood why the US never encouraged a partition of Kurdistan/Pakistan.Does Turkey still care that much?"

Kurdistan and Pakistan???

8/8/2006 6:26:02 AM

Quote :

"civil war... what a convenient excuse"

and convenient timing

8/8/2006 1:15:38 PM

i dont need your civil war

8/8/2006 1:27:27 PM

i dont think we needed to go to iraq to begin with

8/8/2006 1:28:31 PM

^^^woah, typo

8/8/2006 1:28:42 PM

Bush is as likely to pull out as I am after I promise I will with some bitch I just met...it ain't happening until after I'm finished.

I may be out before the whole job is done, but not until I'm good and ready.

8/8/2006 2:13:59 PM

The only difference is, there aren't any explosions before you pull out.

8/8/2006 2:16:11 PM

Pull out, let them off each other until one group gains the upper hand, provide secret financial backing to the party that comes out on top, use and abuse new power structure.

Textbook stuff, how do you think Sadam got in power to begin with?

8/8/2006 2:43:32 PM

^^You've never seen my creampie surpise bomb

Its precision guided and very impressive

8/8/2006 3:50:09 PM

Rumsfeld helped fuel a war between Iran and Iraq, and now Rumsfeld is helping fuel a civil war within Iraq. Coincidence? Well, I won't answer questions for you.

8/8/2006 4:01:51 PM

its just a way of keeping the preoccupied with distractions while we suck their oil dry.

then when they've exhausted all their reserves, we'll be the only nation left with oil (since we haven't hardly tapped our fields) and the world will come crawling on their hands and knees to good ol' USA

8/8/2006 4:04:37 PM

Quote :

"My bet is that in a few weeks this "contigency" plan will turn in to "an announcement that Iraq is in all-out civil war" and we will pull out."

My bet is that you're at LEAST wrong on the timetable.

8/8/2006 11:04:38 PM

to be fair, we were all told that civil war would be a real possibility 4 years into our war with iraq

8/8/2006 11:14:09 PM

This has more to do with what the administration knowingly did, rather than what they told us beforehand.

8/8/2006 11:16:16 PM

What's so civil about war anyway?

8/9/2006 1:06:43 AM

Quote :

"if a civil war ... "

If?

Quote :

"A suicide bomber strapped with explosives detonated himself at a police checkpoint near a holy shrine in Najaf on Thursday, killing at least 34 people and wounding 40 others, a Najaf police official said."

Quote :

"In Baghdad, police on Tuesday found 15 bullet-riddled corpses, most showing signs of torture. The style of slayings has become a signature of Sunni-Shiite sectarian vendetta killings."

And this has been going on [at this intensity] for more than a year now.

Some 14,000+ people have died since January, 6,000 of them in June and July.

Nope, that's not a civil war!

8/10/2006 8:05:25 AM

Hey, something is getting better in Iraq:

May: 2,500 dead
June: 3,000 dead
July: 3,500 dead (1,500 in Baghdad --> 50/day)

So let's see if it will get better in August, i.e, 4,000 dead.

8/22/2006 1:14:59 PM

didnt you just post that somewhere else?

8/22/2006 1:15:46 PM

Relax!! Look at the facts here...

1) Bush to pull out troops if Iraq falls into Civil War.
2) Bush will not remove troops while he's President.

Obviously, we don't have anything to worry about until at least 2008, because a Civil War is impossible!

8/22/2006 2:38:12 PM

Former President Clinton warns against Premature Withdrawal

8/22/2006 4:01:10 PM

Last time I checked... we were adding more troops, not taking away: http://www.wral.com/news/9718163/detail.html

8/22/2006 4:18:38 PM

But that's ok! There won't be a civil war.

8/22/2006 9:55:33 PM

There are 26 million ppl in iraq.

3500 dead in Iraq would be comparable to 35,000 dead here in the US.

8/23/2006 12:14:47 AM

NOTHING TO SEE HERE

8/23/2006 12:18:59 PM

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/30/news/iraq.php

Quote :

" Bombs kill 48 Iraqis; U.S. general sees declining security role By Damien Cave The New York Times Published: August 30, 2006 BAGHDAD Shootings and hidden bombs at a market, a gas station and army recruiting center killed at least 48 Iraqis on Wednesday, continuing a wave of violence that has defied increased efforts to stanch the spread of sectarian bloodshed. In the deadliest incident, a bomb inside a vendor's cart exploded just after 10 a.m. in Shurja market, Baghdad's oldest and largest bazaar, killing at least 24 civilians and wounding 35, Interior Ministry officials said. Earlier and just south of the capital, an explosives-rigged bicycle blew up near an army recruiting center in Hilla, killing at least 12 people, the authorities said. A car bomb near a gas station in Baghdad also killed 2 civilians and wounded 21, including 5 policemen, who rushed to the scene in response to another blast a few minutes earlier. Also in Baghdad, gunmen executed a senior Justice Ministry official, Nadiya Mohammad Hasan, her driver and a guard, [] and the authorities found 13 bodies all over the city. With at least 11 additional civilians killed throughout the country, the tally of Iraqis killed or found dead Wednesday reached 65, according to Iraqi officials. The rash of attacks - reflecting a spike in violence that has claimed roughly 200 lives since Sunday - came despite a new security plan for the capital, on a day when the top American general in Iraq said that Iraqi forces could take over security as early as next year. "I don't have a date," General George Casey Jr. said in Baghdad. "But I can see - over the next 12 to 18 months - I can see the Iraqi security forces progressing to a point where they can take on the security responsibilities for the country, with very little coalition support." Three years into the war, U.S. and Iraqi officials have grown increasingly eager to show progress. In recent weeks, they have repeatedly pointed to evidence of a decline in killings this month after increases in June and July. Yet the bloodshed of the past few days has darkened the statistical achievement. Americans have not been spared. The U.S. military said Wednesday that a marine from the 1st Armored Division was killed in action Tuesday in Anbar Province. Military officials also said that they had misidentified the number of soldiers dead from an attack on a Stryker vehicle Sunday in western Baghdad; two Americans died from the attack, not four, though the total number killed that day remained at nine. This month, 60 American service members have been killed in Iraq, up from 43 in July, and nearly even with the 61 killed in June[/b], according to Coalition Casualty Count, a Web site that tracks military fatalities. In all, 2,362 American men and women in uniform have been killed in Iraq since the start of the war, according to the Defense Department. The toll for Iraqis is far higher, with more than 100 people killed per day in June and July by spreading sectarian violence, according to the Iraqi government figures. Statistics for August have not been released, but the attack at Shurja market was just the latest attempt to kill as many civilians as possible by targeting a crowded area. The explosion destroyed scores of makeshift stalls, sent smoke towering over buildings, and spread body parts and bloodied cartons of nuts and umbrellas through the streets. "Two brothers of the restaurant owners died, in addition to four cardamom vendors, all women whose bodies were found headless," said Ali Jasim, 47, a yogurt vendor at the market who narrowly missed being killed. Some of the mourners and bystanders blamed the United States, echoing a belief among Iraqis that the American government initiates the violence to justify its occupation. Others, like Raheem Kadem, 44, a high school gym teacher from Sadr City, blamed Iraqi officials. "Where is the government?" he said. "Why have the politicians left the people to face their destiny while the government hides behind the walls of the heavily protected Green Zone?" In an effort to shore up support for the government, the defense minister met with a provincial governor and other local leaders after his troops clashed with Shiite militias for more than 12 hours on Sunday. He announced that there would be a ban on weapons, though he offered no plan for enforcing it. [] The battle was one of the worst internal conflicts in recent memory, pitting Iraqi troops against members of the Mahdi Army, loyal to the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and other militias. And by Wednesday, the death toll had increased: Iraqi police and army officials said 23 soldiers were killed, along with 13 civilians."

[Edited on August 30, 2006 at 10:38 PM. Reason : ]

8/30/2006 10:37:57 PM

Looks like that civil war warning given back in February might've deserved a little more serious attention...

http://www.brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=390001

8/31/2006 10:53:37 AM