Current known Potential oil reserves will last till 2146 at current levels of consumption.

[Low end of] current known oil reserves will last till 2100 at current levels of consumption

[Low end of] current known oil reserves will last till 2070 assuming 2%/year increase in oil consumption.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4183291.html

Quote :

"Saudi: Just 18 Pct. of World Oil Tapped By WILLIAM J. KOLE Associated Press Writer © 2006 The Associated Press VIENNA, Austria — The world has tapped only 18 percent of the total global supply of crude, a leading Saudi oil executive said Wednesday, challenging the notion that supplies are petering out. Abdallah S. Jum'ah, president and CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known better as Aramco, said the world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves _ enough to power the globe at current levels of consumption for another 140 years. Jum'ah challenged oil ministers and petroleum executives at an OPEC conference in Vienna to step up exploration "and leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground." "The world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional potential," Jum'ah said, contending that should lay to rest fears that the world is in danger of being tapped out within a few decades. Many experts estimate that the planet's recoverable oil resource is at least 3 trillion barrels and potentially more than 4 trillion barrels. If global consumption rises about 2 percent a year from today's levels of about 85 million barrels a day, they say, the low end of that range would only be enough to last until roughly 2070. Rex W. Tillerson, the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corp., said world demand for oil will increase by 50 percent in the next decade. "When nations threaten to stop this flow, it stops economic progress worldwide," Tillerson said. Industry leaders have gathered this week to take stock of new challenges at the conference sponsored by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Earlier this week, the 11-nation cartel agreed to leave its current production target of 28 million barrels a day unchanged, but made clear it would keep close tabs on falling oil prices and consider a possible cut in its output quota before the end of the year. Crude prices have tumbled to five-month lows and have dropped by more than $12 a barrel since hitting record highs in mid-July. Analysts say a combination of ample supplies and an easing of political tensions such as the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and progress in talks on Iran's suspect nuclear program have driven prices lower. "When prices are high, passions can run high," Tillerson said. "Economic nationalism may gain in popularity" at the expense of developing global markets and the world economy, he said. "The new era we face, like all of the previous ones, is not an era of easy oil _ nor will it be an era of easy answers. But it can be an era of continued economic advancement," he said. Jum'ah challenged explorationists to find enough new oil resources to add 1 trillion barrels to world reserves over the next 25 years, saying new technology and higher recovery rates would make it possible to hit that target. Already, he noted, drilling is now going on as deep as 10,000 feet below the Gulf of Mexico and 7,000 to 8,000 feet elsewhere. Experts say a newly discovered petroleum pool beneath the Gulf of Mexico eventually could yield anywhere from 3 billion to 15 billion barrels."

I don't get one thing: OPEC is producing 28 mbpd, but world consumption is 85 mbpd. I thought OPEC was producing the majority of the world's oil...?


[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 1:53 PM. Reason : ]

9/14/2006 1:47:33 PM

this is what really fucking scares me

....

i wonder what pools of lead will look like?

9/14/2006 1:48:21 PM

Supply goes up ... so prices .... go up.

9/14/2006 1:48:57 PM

So basically they want to keep prices increasing artificially to maintain profits.

9/14/2006 1:54:42 PM

who cares about money or moving around or whatever

we are so totally fucked, it's not even funny

9/14/2006 1:55:17 PM

How do you figure?

9/14/2006 1:55:37 PM

global warming

that's about it

9/14/2006 1:56:45 PM

9/14/2006 1:59:01 PM

if you're saying this to me...

my guess is that Penn really wouldn't approve

[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 2:01 PM. Reason : .]

9/14/2006 2:00:22 PM

FUCK global warming.

That is all.

9/14/2006 2:00:37 PM

slackerb, huh?

ok

9/14/2006 2:01:05 PM

huh?

ok.

9/14/2006 2:02:55 PM

Quote :

"Supply goes up ... so prices .... go up"

yes...please note has gas prices have gone through the roof in the last twe weeks

9/14/2006 2:05:00 PM

Quote :

"Supply goes up ... so prices .... go up"

wrong.

and supply has not gone up... known supply has... not the amount we pull from the ground.

[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 2:14 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 2:15 PM. Reason : .]

9/14/2006 2:14:31 PM

Quote :

"gas prices have gone through the roof"

9/14/2006 2:20:52 PM

isnt this all frozen underground anyway?

BETTER SPEED UP GLOBAL WARMING!

9/14/2006 2:21:21 PM

dude...a few months ago i was paying 3.36/gal....now im paying 2.44/gal....welcome to real world/real time economics...

9/14/2006 2:28:22 PM

what.

9/14/2006 2:30:22 PM

...thank you

9/14/2006 2:32:55 PM

the fuck.

9/14/2006 2:52:27 PM

i loooove economics...free market rules

9/14/2006 2:54:39 PM

Quote :

"dude...a few months ago i was paying 3.36/gal....now im paying 2.44/gal....welcome to real world/real time economics... "

no you were not. No place around here was charging that much.

Plus, should we really trust the saudis on this one?

The advantage to them is to report that we've barely touched the oil reserves.

9/14/2006 3:16:35 PM

Wait... so the best case is that oil lasts until 2146 if we don't increase consumption any?

That seems pretty dire to me. I think even the worse effects of global warming are farther off than that.

9/14/2006 3:16:59 PM

Quote :

"no you were not. No place around here was charging that much."

dude....are you going to tell me how much i paid for gas?? what makes you think i was "around here"

the point is...gas prices have dropped since the news that we have more gas than expected (saudi's report...some reserve they think they have in the gulf...some reserve out west)...supply goes up...price goesdown

[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 3:20 PM. Reason : asdf]

9/14/2006 3:20:00 PM

^haha i'm glad you said that, cause i was gonna call his ass out on that

how the fuck you gonna tell someone what they paid for gas, lol

anyway...

Quote :

"[Low end of] current known oil reserves will last till 2070 assuming 2%/year increase in oil consumption."

i currently smoke a pack of cigarettes a day, i will be 86 when this happens, so i'm not too worried, plus i figure by like 2050, they gotta have like flying cars and shit

9/14/2006 3:51:51 PM

Quote :

"The advantage to them is to report that we've barely touched the oil reserves."

Only if it is true, Otherwise Saudi Arabia is about to run out of oil and needs to drive up the price today.



[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 3:54 PM. Reason : .,.]

9/14/2006 3:52:28 PM

Quote :

"i figure by like 2050, they gotta have like flying cars and shit"

back in the day everybody thought that we would have those by 2000

but according to Back to the Future II we'll at least have hoverboards in the next 9 years.

9/14/2006 4:02:01 PM

Quote :

"Plus, should we really trust the saudis on this one? The advantage to them is to report that we've barely touched the oil reserves."

what the fuck kind of economics text book have you been reading? If supply is down, prices are up meaning they get more money. If the supply is up, prices are down meaning they get less money.


How is this advantageous to the Saudi's?

[Edited on September 14, 2006 at 4:05 PM. Reason : .]

9/14/2006 4:05:06 PM

for real...if they say "oh noes we are almost out!!!" that drives up consumer fear, drives down (perceived) supply, and prices would go through the roof....

but if they say "ah we got lots"...the exact opposite happens

9/14/2006 4:11:21 PM

maybe they don't want us to wean ourselves from our oil dependence

9/14/2006 4:12:05 PM

hmmm...maybe

9/14/2006 4:13:57 PM

still want to know what kind of econ buck fucktard was reading.

9/14/2006 4:38:22 PM

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15513467.htm

Quote :

"Gas prices poised to drop furtherConsumers have been seeing prices fall at the pump, but recent drops in oil prices could lead to even lower lows -- under $2 a gallon. BY KEVIN G. HALL McClatchy News Service WASHINGTON - The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s -- perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon. Consumers already have been seeing falling prices at the pump: an average $2.78 in Miami-Dade and $2.79 in Broward, down from more than $3 last month. ''All the hurricane flags are flying'' in oil markets, said Philip K. Verleger, a noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in warning that oil prices would soar. Now, he tells McClatchy News Service, they appear to be poised for a dramatic plunge. Crude oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from their July 14 peak of $78.40 per barrel. Oil closed Wednesday at $63.97, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead. Here's why. For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand, particularly from China and India. Spare oil production capacity grew so tight that market players feared any disruption to oil production could create shortages. Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might spread to oilproducing neighbors and the prospect that hurricanes might topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil traders bet such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and companies that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total trading. Financial players, such as large pension and commodities funds, are the big traders and they're seeking profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent years, according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the future bid up the price of oil. That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil are approaching 1990 levels. But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The hurricane season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. peak summer driving season is over, so demand is falling. With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. All this is turning markets increasingly bearish on oil. ''If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like we had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil,'' said Gary Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy hedge fund. ``I think there is still a lot of risk in the market.'' As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, said Verleger, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon."

9/15/2006 12:16:07 AM

I really hope to see a hydrogen based economy evolve in my lifetime.

I would love OPEC to be sitting on vast oilfields worth nothing.

9/15/2006 12:21:41 AM

A hydrogen-based economy is a pipe dream. Physics dictate that hydrogen is not a viable fuel for transportation. People must come to terms with the fact that pure hydrogen has terrible energy density and is simply not suitable as a transportation fuel.

An electron-based economy (plug-in electric cars) with a gradual phase-out of fossil fuel power plants and combustion engines is much more plausible. There is a reason that electric cars have begun to pop up on the roads and hydrogen-powered cars have not.

[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 12:29 AM. Reason : 2]

9/15/2006 12:26:15 AM

Quote :

"dude....are you going to tell me how much i paid for gas?? what makes you think i was "around here" the point is...gas prices have dropped since the news that we have more gas than expected (saudi's report...some reserve they think they have in the gulf...some reserve out west)...supply goes up...price goesdown"

then it is not a fair comparison and therefore you are being intellectually dishonest in stating the drop as directly related to oil reserves when in reality it is related to geography.

Quote :

"how the fuck you gonna tell someone what they paid for gas, lol"

Because I live here Josh and know what gas is selling for. Christ you are an idiot.

[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 12:52 AM. Reason : .]

9/15/2006 12:51:35 AM

Quote :

"Physics dictate that hydrogen is not a viable fuel for transportation."

there's also quite a bit of biochem research going on. a lot of people believe that the photosynthetic process can be altered to yield hydrogen gas.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2001/nocera-0912.html

i wouldn't discount a hydrogen-based economy just yet.

9/15/2006 1:53:21 AM

$1.15 a gallon?

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
eeeeeeeeet....

This is starting to ease my worries about driving around in a jeep for the next 4 years.

9/15/2006 1:59:10 AM

Quote :

"$1.15 a gallon? Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeet.... This is starting to ease my worries about driving around in a jeep for the next 4 years."

do you honestly think the oil companies will allow gas to get that cheap?

9/15/2006 2:02:53 AM

Quote :

"There is a reason that electric cars have begun to pop up on the roads and hydrogen-powered cars have not."

GM vice chairman wants mass produced hydrogen cars by 2011
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/states/california/northern_california/15521143.htm

BMW launches world’s first dual fuel petrol/hydrogen car
http://www.autoindustry.co.uk/news/13-09-06_10

Hydrogen cars are more about emissions than transport efficiency. Plus, science develops more advanced ways to process and store H2 all the time. It's not going to be gasoline (it'll be a while until we find a way to replace it in every aspect), but it's not a pipe dream.

9/15/2006 2:21:13 AM

Quote :

"a lot of people believe that the photosynthetic process can be altered to yield hydrogen gas."

Producing hydrogen is not the biggest limitation of the "hydrogen economy" right now. The limitation is distribution and storage of that fuel. It simply cannot be stored in an efficient manner. Most cars wouldn't function very well with a fuel tank bigger than the trunk.

^
The market will show the way, and in this case the market has shown that plug-in electric cars are much more feasible than hydrogen-powered cars so far. And electric cars are emissions-free, just like hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

If you want to talk about the fossil fuels used to create the electricity, likewise every current source of hydrogen is reliant on electricity or fossil fuels directly.

BMW's flex-fuel vehicle has an internal combustion engine. Its nothing special, and of course it's not emissions-free.

Battery technology has been progressing faster than advances in hydrogen storage, which is bounded more tightly by physics. People just have to come to terms with the fact that hydrogen is the smallest and lightest element in existence, which makes it impractical as a transportation fuel.


[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 3:01 AM. Reason : 2]

9/15/2006 2:57:49 AM

Quote :

"then it is not a fair comparison and therefore you are being intellectually dishonest in stating the drop as directly related to oil reserves when in reality it is related to geography."

the comparison that i made was between gas prices 6 months ago and gas prices now. it had nothing to do with location. you are being intellectually dishonest by claiming my comparison was about location. and you are being intellectually stupid to claim that gas prices have not dropped dramatically in the last few months. it has little to do with geography. i have parent in charlotte. thats not far from raleigh. dont tell me that the rise and fall in gas prices is related to me being NY (at the time). I know what gas prices were down here a few months ago and iknow what they are now. stop being an idiot

Quote :

"do you honestly think the oil companies will allow gas to get that cheap?"

there is little they can do to stop it. if people will only pay 1.15 per gallon then the gas company cant sell it for any more.

[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 7:14 AM. Reason : asdf]

9/15/2006 7:12:52 AM

Quote :

"The world has tapped only 18 percent of the total global supply of crude, a leading Saudi oil executive said Wednesday, challenging the notion that supplies are petering out."

This is how they know:

9/15/2006 7:37:41 AM

Quote :

"do you honestly think the oil companies will allow gas to get that cheap?"

are you honestly that fucking retarded?

It has nothing to do with the oil companies! They're still getting their profits! The PRICE OF CRUDE is what's going down. If the inputs for gasoline are less costly, then they can reduce the price of gas and not forfeit a single dime in their profits. $1.15 for gas will do NOTHING to the profits of the oil companies.


Goddam please read an econ book. That's your second fucking retarded post in this thread which makes it ABUNDANTLY CLEAR that you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about when it comes to economics.

9/15/2006 10:29:26 AM

I would hope that any econ book I would buy would have the following:

Chapter 1: Don't sell stuff at a price that is cheaper than what people are willing to pay

Ie. If the price of crude goes down, hooray for me. Lets production cost - higher profit margins.

9/15/2006 10:34:11 AM

I would hope that you would read the next chapter of that book

2. Competition
When you have more than one firm in an industry, competition exists for consumers. When competition exists, sellers are forced to lower the cost of their goods TO THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LEVEL to attract the most buyers. Because if they don't, they're competitor surely will.


Are you that retarded too?


Capitalism 101 for Retards. You should pick that up.

[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 10:38 AM. Reason : .]

9/15/2006 10:37:52 AM

holy cow...you people have no idea...

as the price of the inputs goes down....the companies will begin to sell thier gas a little bit cheaper in hopes that they will get more business and make up for the decreased price by selling more gas (increasing volume of sales). However, when the station on one corner of the intersection lowers its prices, the station on the other corner will do the same. this lowering of prices will continue until the companies cant lower thier prices anymore.

so now we are at that place. inputs (crude oil) are still cheap.....ya know what....nevermind...
read a freakin econ book

^WINNER!!!!YAAAYY!!!!

[Edited on September 15, 2006 at 10:40 AM. Reason : asdf]

9/15/2006 10:39:50 AM

and that's where collusion by the gas companies comes in, to keep prices higher.

9/15/2006 10:40:05 AM

Quote :

"i currently smoke a pack of cigarettes a day, i will be 86 when this happens"

no you won't

9/15/2006 10:41:29 AM

Chapter 3: Price fixing

9/15/2006 10:41:54 AM