So heres the math!
Cubic feet of oil in one barrel=5.61
120 million barrels a day (close to current use However is much higher than was in past but will still be used in my calculation)

assume 150 years at 120 million barrels a day have been used of oil. THIS IS much much higher than the actual amount however for simplicity i will keep it at this.

150*365=#of days=54750 days
54750*120,000,000=6.57e12 barrels
6.57e12*5.61=3.68577e13 cubic feet of oil used in human history
3.68577/5280^3 (cubic miles of oil used in human history)=250 cubic miles
Raleigh is 110 square miles. so 2 miles deep in raleigh about

opinions

Shortage??? i think not

[Edited on September 21, 2006 at 10:26 PM. Reason : asdf]

9/21/2006 10:09:45 PM

the question is how easy/ecoomical is it to extract that oil.

we've tapped out most of the easy oil i think.

9/21/2006 10:53:42 PM

Yeah, this sort of math doesn't really give or take anything at all.

9/21/2006 11:03:05 PM

Quote :

"the question is how easy/ecoomical is it to extract that oil."

Saudi Arabia is still reporting well-head prices around $4 a barrel.
The most expensive oil to extract in the world (Kansas) costs about $15 a barrel.
That still leaves Albertan oil-sands, which costs about $25 a barrel.

Now, of course, no company is going to produce oil from oil-sands at a market price of $25, you still need to ship it, pay insurance, and pocket a profit for time and effort.

If Exxon and BP could freely drill in Saudi Arabia, gasoline would cost about $0.69
If more oil could be found here in America, gasoline would cost about $0.99
If all of it must come from tar-sands, then gasoline will cost about $1.49
If all of it must come from corn, then gasoline will cost about $1.79
If all of it must come from depolymerization of organic waste, then gasoline will cost about $1.89
If all of it must come from reformulated coal, then gasoline will cost about $1.99
If all of it must come from reformulated timber (trees), then gasoline will cost about $2.69
(all prices per gallon with about 50 cents in constant tax, as well as many other assumptions/simplifications/etc)

[Edited on September 22, 2006 at 12:55 AM. Reason : left out a few of my favorites]

9/22/2006 12:40:14 AM

once again, i feel the need to advocate a return to whale oil

are all of you too blind to see it?

9/22/2006 12:41:49 AM

^^links to back any of that up?

9/22/2006 3:26:53 AM

I wouldn't use any of it in an academic paper if that's what you're asking, the numbers came from wikipedia or a blog titled "Peal Oil Debunked" or were based upon my own calculations.

If it had good foundations I would have said what they were. So take them with a huge grain of salt and feel free to dispute them.

[Edited on September 22, 2006 at 8:48 AM. Reason : .,.]

9/22/2006 8:45:34 AM

if you took all of the diamonds ever mined by mankind, they would fit in a cubic mile.

thus diamonds aren't a precious stone.

9/22/2006 11:28:03 AM

Until the wizards at DeBeers use the magic of Capitalism to make them so.

9/22/2006 2:44:41 PM

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

history and analysis of crude oil prices

what causes spikes and what causes drops


OPEC = higher price

9/25/2006 12:35:42 PM

Quote :

"So heres the math! Cubic feet of oil in one barrel=5.61 120 million barrels a day (close to current use However is much higher than was in past but will still be used in my calculation) assume 150 years at 120 million barrels a day have been used of oil. THIS IS much much higher than the actual amount however for simplicity i will keep it at this. 150*365=#of days=54750 days 54750*120,000,000=6.57e12 barrels 6.57e12*5.61=3.68577e13 cubic feet of oil used in human history 3.68577/5280^3 (cubic miles of oil used in human history)=250 cubic miles Raleigh is 110 square miles. so 2 miles deep in raleigh about opinions Shortage??? i think not "

How does any of this have to do with whether or not there is a shortage?

There is no estimation of the total amount of oil that is available.


As for lonesnarks estimations. I am skeptical. If there was a marginal barrel of oil (outside of OPEC) that could delivered for less than $60 I would suspect that someone would be delviering it.

9/25/2006 6:47:57 PM

Quote :

"How does any of this have to do with whether or not there is a shortage?"

We havent in the history of mankind used as much oil as oil companies would like for you to believe.

9/25/2006 10:01:30 PM

Quote :

"If there was a marginal barrel of oil (outside of OPEC) that could delivered for less than $60 I would suspect that someone would be delviering it."

Think about what you just said...

[Edited on September 25, 2006 at 10:40 PM. Reason : there's a reason they're a CARTEL, dick.]

9/25/2006 10:39:51 PM

It doesn't end there.

kwsmith2, I am offering to sell you an oil well in Kansas that is rediculously expensive to drill and pump, or $15 a barrel. Regretfully, there is a 50% chance the well is dry. Regretfully, it will not produce a drop of oil for 5 years. Oh, and using history as a guide, in 5 years times the price of oil will probably be back down to $30.

So, to produce a million barrels in 5 years you must spend $15 million dollars today. You can get 10% by investing in the stock market, so this $15 million in 5 years is an opportunity cost of $24 million at that time (if, instead, you bought stock). Ok, this million sells for $30 million, a profit of $6 million. Of course, this ignores the discount that the oil well might be friggin' dry and you lose everything.

9/25/2006 11:02:20 PM