Latest polls 52% Coker 44% Ford, Tenn will not elect a black senator, even a conservative black senator.... It is a pretty sure bet that 4 seats will flip to Dems, I think Virgina will go to the Dems, so probably will turn out to be 50, 50. Even if Ford would win, he will be a Republican in Dems clothing and vote with the GOP on certain issues.

Oh, and Hernandez or whatever his name is needs to win reelection or the GOP will for sure keep 51 seats.

It looks nearly impossible to get more than 5 seats.

[Edited on October 31, 2006 at 7:21 PM. Reason : w]

10/31/2006 7:19:30 PM

doesn't matter how the votes go down in the senate/congress

what matters is that if democrats win majority, then committees will be chaired by democrats

which means endless subpoenas for bush

which is not necessarily a problem, you know, my only point is that the statement, "Even if Ford would win, he will be a Republican in Dems clothing and vote with the GOP on certain issues" misses the point completely

10/31/2006 8:14:58 PM

No way the Dems can take the Senate.

Virginia - will go to Allen, he is a young charismatic politician in a solidly Bush state, the polls flip flop each day about who is in the lead, but I think Allen will take it. R seat stays.

New Jersey - Kean wins in a close race. D seat goes R.

Pennsylvania - Santorum loses to a conservative Democrat. R seat goes D.

Missouri - I am not sure about this one. Talent may be talented enough to keep his seat, but it will be close.

Rhode Island - Chafee loses, thank Christ. R seat goes D.

Maryland - Dems keep the seat.

Tennessee - Republicans keep the seat.

10/31/2006 8:31:15 PM

Republicans keep 2 seat lead in the Senate and give up the House by a small margin. I'm predicting 2 seats there in favor of the Dems.

10/31/2006 8:47:21 PM

The GOP will not lose the house or the Senate.
I do believe that they will lose seats. They will not lose enough to lose either house however.

11/1/2006 1:01:27 AM

Da Bears!

11/1/2006 3:08:55 AM

^^ dont be so sure about that...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/



[Edited on November 1, 2006 at 8:31 AM. Reason : f]

11/1/2006 8:31:03 AM

Of course I can only comment based on my own observations.
I just do not put a lot of faith in polls.
As I said in an earlier thread, if polls were accurate, then Kerry would be president.
I just seriously question if their sampling and science have kept up with the changes in society.
It is not just polls. I have similar questions on the Nielson ratings too.
The mixed results, combined with no perceived change in method..regardless of the changes in society just make me not put too much faith in them.

11/1/2006 9:35:05 AM

If you've been reading cook report or anything similar, most analysts are content to say that all signs point to imminent meltdown, save a direct bin ladin attack or something similar...cook's accurracy is always somewhere north of 95%

this is his latest article from last friday

Quote :

"Reaping the Whirlwind? By Charlie Cook © National Journal This column was originally featured in National Journal on October 28, 2006 With 10 days to go, the hurricane roaring toward the Republican Party looks like a Category 4 or 5. A Cat 4 would probably cost the GOP the House, and a 5 would be powerful enough to flip the Senate as well. Of course, at any moment, some foreign or domestic event could shift the public's attention away from Iraq and congressional scandals, and toward something less hazardous to the GOP. Although the national wind is blowing against them, Republicans are improving their standing in some key races -- in the tight-as-a-tick open-seat Senate contest in Tennessee, for example, and in Republican Sen. Conrad Burns's re-election bid in Montana (though he remains behind). At this point in the struggle, both parties' campaign committees are making agonizing, Sophie's Choice-style decisions about which candidates to cut off so that precious resources can go to more-promising contests. The choice facing Senate Republicans was whether to invest in horribly expensive New Jersey or fund slightly longer shots in Michigan or Maryland. It appears that they have decided to invest a chunk of the available resources in the Garden State contest that pits GOP state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. against appointed Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, who has been plagued with ethical and legal problems. To advertise statewide, a campaign must buy TV time in both the New York City media market -- the costliest in the nation -- and the Philadelphia market, the fourth-most expensive. That combination costs about $2.5 million a week. Now that Republicans are making a financial commitment to New Jersey, what does that mean for other races? At the moment, the Republican party committees aren't helping Sen. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania or Burns in Montana. Republicans certainly can't decrease their spending in Tennessee, where they are finally making a bit of headway; or in Missouri, where Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill is statistically tied with GOP incumbent Jim Talent; or in Virginia, where Republican Sen. George Allen is only 2 to 4 points ahead of his challenger, Jim Webb. Strategists contend that putting money into Maryland and Michigan remains an option, and such decisions may have been made by now. For all the GOP's big talk about its vaunted spending advantage, it doesn't have quite enough to deal with all of the problems that have cropped up, especially when it comes to the Senate races. So the party is making tough calls. While Democrats have similarly difficult decisions to make, at least they have the wind at their backs. Just as Democrats found in 1980 and 1994, when the national climate was very much against them and voters refused to give them the benefit of the doubt, the GOP is finding how difficult it is to make headway, no matter how much money it pumps into competitive races. One Republican consultant told me that although his clients are practically "carpet bombing" -- as he phrased it -- their opponents with negative advertising, they are finding it very difficult to create unfavorable impressions of Democratic candidates. "This cycle," he said, "they are Teflon, and we are Velcro." Attacks that would normally destroy Democrats are not having much effect. Conversely, Democratic attacks on GOP candidates are drawing blood in many races. Every day, every hour, we keep waiting to see whether something will alter the trajectory of this election, which now seems headed toward costing the GOP at least four -- more likely, five or six -- Senate seats, as well as at least 20, and perhaps as many as 35 or more, House seats. Democrats need six seats to gain Senate control and 15 to capture the House. They would be foolish to count their victories before they happen, though, and Republicans would be equally ill-advised to give up on either chamber. This campaign season is vastly different from what it was a month ago. In the final days, the hurricane over the horizon could strengthen, or it could veer away from the GOP majorities it is now threatening."

11/1/2006 10:05:09 AM

Quote :

"Rhode Island - Chafee loses, thank Christ. R seat goes D."

Lincoln Chafee is my homeboy. I hope he wins.

11/1/2006 1:20:09 PM

Whatever happens this year will be reversed by 2010 at the latest. The democrats will reveal their true high-tax, reduced security, immoral selves and be swept out to cries of "we will never trust you with our country again!"

11/1/2006 2:44:26 PM

Thank you, Oliver Cromwell.

11/1/2006 6:11:14 PM