ok so i hear china has like a 2.3 million man army which is the biggest in the world

well that being said...

what if *hypothetical situation* happened and china went to war...it seems like the kinda country that would make some of its citizens join the army

so i guess my question is this...if *hypothetical situation* were to happen, how quickly could china mobilize its army? like for instance(bout to throw out random numbers to help illustrate my question), how quickly could it go from 2.3 million army to like a 5 million man army or 10 million man army, etc?

5/14/2007 6:07:30 PM

in an attosecond.

5/14/2007 6:10:29 PM

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/index.html

5/14/2007 6:13:20 PM

whats the point of a 10 million man army when there is no chance in hell you could transport them or supply them.

Against invasion? I'm sure they be drafted quite quickly. "Um, everyone is now a solider, good luck!"

Too invade another country? Large numbers in the 5-10 million range would be useless

5/14/2007 6:15:38 PM

ok another quick question...(since the only way they would have a giant army is if they got invaded)

do yall see china getting into any kind military conflict in the next lets say 20 years?

5/14/2007 6:18:17 PM

^are you referring to us?

I strongly doubt that China/USA would be foolish enough to get into a world war with one another....

however, you could very well see some smaller conflicts/wars in the Asian theatre that would indirectly challenge US diplomacy in the region.... say, with a smaller country(ies) in the region that has been traditionally allied to the U.S. Then it will be a matter of how we deal with it.

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 8:13 PM. Reason : .]

5/14/2007 8:09:40 PM

nah, i was referring to china

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 8:13 PM. Reason : like is china gonna have any kind of military conflict in the next 20 years]

5/14/2007 8:12:19 PM

Bottom line is ......there is no way to tell at this point in time.

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 8:16 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 8:17 PM. Reason : .]

5/14/2007 8:15:57 PM

Well, if you name a theater, such as China vs. Korea, then America could reasonably hold on to South Korea, assuming it committed fully to saving it before the war started.

Of course, any conflict that requires the crossing of water, such as China vs. Japan or China vs. Malasia, or China vs. Australia, then there is no question of China's defeat, even with limited U.S. support. With Full U.S. Support then such areas could probably be taken back from China (if it was a surprise invasion, or the like).

5/14/2007 8:42:18 PM

so pretty much if china doesnt try to invade anyone they are not going to be fucked with?

sounds like no one would want to invade them and sounds like they cant really invade anyone

5/14/2007 8:44:38 PM

tawian... or anywhere else china thinks they own. hell they might have claim to part of russia

5/14/2007 8:49:37 PM

Their power is concentrated in light infantry. Basically they have a really good defense, but the effectiveness of their offense is limited to their neighbors.

5/14/2007 9:13:15 PM

what do you mean about that last part?(being restricted to their neighbors)

5/14/2007 9:20:20 PM

ie their main offense is marching their infantry across the border. They don't really have the ability to bring it across the world.

5/14/2007 9:29:01 PM

China has learned from the USSR's mistakes...

They will not waste precious resources and economic potential on a huge military budget that will only cause them to be shunned by the world community and lose foreign investments..

however, they are determined that Japan's invasion in the early part of the 20th century will be the last foreign invasion ever.

IMHO, When China takes our place as the #1 economy in the world, then I think we will have a major situation. I don't think they'll sit idle for long after that.

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 9:31 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on May 14, 2007 at 9:32 PM. Reason : .]

5/14/2007 9:29:05 PM

5/14/2007 9:35:10 PM

Quote :

"MHO, When China takes our place as the #1 economy in the world"

how long until that happens...i know you cant give an exact date...so in your opinion whens the soonest it could happen and whats the latest you think that will happen?

5/14/2007 10:03:03 PM

i have no freakin clue...

if i were to make a stupid wild ass guess though, i'd say in 50 years

5/14/2007 10:08:39 PM

We owe china too much money

5/14/2007 10:27:43 PM

It's far from inevitable that China's economy will ever be the "#1" economy in the world. They have a lot of internal problems and handicaps that could explode on them and their exports can easily be replaced by other countries(ie there is nothing that China produces that couldn't be easily purchased from somewhere else). China is today what people made Japan out to be in the 80's, according to the hype back then Japan was suppose to own the US by now . China has a LOT to sort out before they could ever come close to the US or Europe in lasting economic strength.

Their military is big, but that's about all it has going for it. Their equipment is still mostly Russian or Russian knockoffs, their doctrines are light years behind ours, they have no Navy, their pilots are about 1/100th as well trained as ours (even if they had planes equal to ares, which they don't). Militarily they can bridge the technology gap much easier then they can bridge the doctrinal/training gap. And as has already been said, their force projection is almost nil.

5/14/2007 10:29:20 PM

well what is one supposed to think when china has made double digit percentage increases in military spending since like 1994

AND THEY NEED TO FUCKING VALUE THEIR MONEY RIGHT

/rant

5/14/2007 10:45:42 PM

Recessions occur when wages exceed productivity due a host of possible causes.

In the case of China, imported technology is increasing productivity very quickly; meanwhile labor inflows from inland are preventing labor shortages which would otherwise bid up wages. As things go, China will be able to maintain this happy situation for a decade. But eventually even China will run out of labor; eventually wages will start rising quickly; it will be at this point that future profits will no longer be sufficient to hide loses and institutions become insolvent. At this point, of course, China will flood itself with cash, using inflation to hide institutional loses.

Either way, I suspect China will do fine in its first recession, and if it does then we know China will become the largest economy on the planet in a few decades.

5/14/2007 10:57:34 PM

ok so new question(sory i'm drunk a little now and i dont drink a lot)

crazywade says 50 years

you say a "few" decades(i'm guessing lower or equal to 30 years)

so if yall dont mind like can you all debate on the different year estimates

honestly i'm guessing you are right(loneshark)...it seems like with how fast the world is changing and shit it wont be 20 years until the chinese are number 1(although i hope its 50 years cause by then i'll be 70 and want to die anyway)

5/14/2007 11:00:41 PM

Quote :

"Their military is big, but that's about all it has going for it. Their equipment is still mostly Russian or Russian knockoffs, their doctrines are light years behind ours, they have no Navy, their pilots are about 1/100th as well trained as ours (even if they had planes equal to ares, which they don't). Militarily they can bridge the technology gap much easier then they can bridge the doctrinal/training gap. And as has already been said, their force projection is almost nil."

I don't think China has the desire to be able to project force across the entire planet like the United States. I can see them being satisfied as simply restoring its role as the overwhelming and dominant power of Eastern Asia. In that sense, they are quickly building up the power to overwhelm their neighbors. Those connected by the ground could probably be beaten down, and most predict that China will finally have everything they need to take over Taiwan this decade (nevermind that they already have the firepower to turn the island into a sea of fire right now).

As for the question asked, I think China is moving away from the conscript army of old and is focusing on building up a more modern, professional military like the United States. While they're behind, they've got plenty of places to buy equipment and expertise. They don't need the masses of soldiers as in the old days; no one has the resources to realistically invade China anymore. Instead, like the United States, they need a modern military with highly trained, professional soldiers to compete with its neighbors: the Indians, the Russians, the Koreans, the Vietnamese, and the Chinese. Ever since the Sino-Vietnamese War, China learned that the Human Wave just doesn't cut it anymore.

I see hypothetical situations where the United States and China could go to war and another couple more where it would pick a fight with its neighbors. Taiwan is the most obvious. If the island is stupid enough to declare independence, then China will probably invade, and the United States will do what it can to defend them. The other is in the Korean peninsula, where somehow, war starts between the North and South, and China decides to try and establish a buffer zone in the north, potentially bringing it into conflict with the South and the 8th Army.

Other conflicts I can see are a clash with the Vietnamese and the Philippines over the Spratley Islands and maybe a conflict between China and North Korea (ie. North Korea collapses or finally pushes China too far, and the Chinese government decides it would be better to establish their own North Korean puppet government rather than deal with Kim Jong-Il).

[Edited on May 15, 2007 at 2:33 AM. Reason : .]

5/15/2007 2:32:14 AM

Who cares if China's GDP is higher than ours?

I seriously doubt their per capita will be higher than ours in the next 100 years anyway even if their GDP passes us. As of right now they aren't even close to being on our level as a whole economy and their per capita is light years behind.


As long as we sustain steady economic growth it really doesn't matter who "#1" is. Like i just said in another thread, wealth can be created. It doesn't have to be transferred.

So China could pass us but we'll still be much better off 50 years from now regardless. In a world economy everyone can get better. Its not some pie graph where the total amount of wealth is a fixed number and you're fighting for your share of the pie.


Secondly, China has WAY too much money invested in the US to even consider a war with us. This would be like setting your parents wallets on fire to destroy part of your inheritance.

All the idiots against globalization fail to realize that one of the best things to come from it has been steadying economic growth across nations and making future world wars much less feasible.


Thirdly, man power doesn't mean what it used to. Resources and weapons technology are more important than pure man power. Also, China has a LOT more land to protect than we do so their man power would be greatly watered down by the pure size of their holdings.

[Edited on May 15, 2007 at 3:58 AM. Reason : a]

5/15/2007 3:56:23 AM

Quote :

"no one has the resources to realistically invade China anymore"

are you telling me with all the money the US spends we couldnt fuck some shit up in china?

Quote :

"China has a LOT more land to protect than we do"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_area

Quote :

"1 Flag of Russia Russia 17,098,242 Prior to its dissolution in 1991, the Soviet Union had an area of 22,402,200 km².[citation needed] 2 Flag of Canada Canada 9,970,610 Total surface area is 9,984,670 km² according to Statistics Canada 3,4 (disputed) Flag of People's Republic of China People's Republic of China (PRC) 9,598,0861 or 9,640,8212 Total of separate UN figures for mainland China and the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong (1,099 km²) and Macau (26 km²). Both values exclude the disputed territories of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu which the Republic of China (Taiwan) has continued to govern after the PRC replaced it on the mainland. 1 Excludes all disputed territories. 2 Includes PRC-administered area (Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract, both territories claimed by India), Taiwan is not included. Flag of United States United States of America 9,629,091 Includes the 50 states and District of Columbia."

idk about the whole "has a lot more land" thing...not trying to sound like a douche but i mean according to wiki...

THE DUKE 866, IF YOU SEE THIS THREAD FUCKING POST IN IT FOR GOD SAKES...

5/15/2007 4:33:06 AM

Quote :

"so if yall dont mind like can you all debate on the different year estimates"

I don't know where 50 came from; I found a prediction of 30 years in my readings. A decade or so from now China "could" suffer its first recession, two decades or so after that China "could" surpass us in GDP.

As rallydurham said, having a larger GDP is rather irrelevant. As China has so much more people, it will be spending a far larger share of its GDP just keeping everyone alive.

Similarly, China is still way behind technologically. On a per-capita basis, I am fairly sure that China will not surpass America this century; in fact it is quite likely they will never surpass America when it comes to living standards.

One final point; WW1 demonstrates that no amount of economic or financial dependence will prevent a war. War is a political phenomenon; and political decision makers have a nasty habbit of ignoring economic conditions.

5/15/2007 7:55:03 AM

I said 50 years but it was a...

Quote :

" stupid wild ass guess"

I'm not a close observer of their economic/diplomatic strategies

5/15/2007 9:06:44 AM

Quote :

"are you telling me with all the money the US spends we couldnt fuck some shit up in china?"

I think it was Jon Stewart who said that while the United States isn't very good at the nation building thing, we're still extremely good at the nation unbuilding business.

I guess I meant that no one is going to go in and conquer China, but that doesn't mean we couldn't set their economy back a couple of decades, burning a city or two in the process.

[Edited on May 15, 2007 at 9:34 AM. Reason : .]

5/15/2007 9:30:46 AM

Quote :

"War is a political phenomenon; and political decision makers have a nasty habbit of ignoring economic conditions."

You may be correct about this, but.... from my understanding its the Chinese government with such a heavily vested interest in the US market. Wouldn't you say its at least way less likely that they'd go to war with us?

I don't know I'm certainly know history buff. I guess I'm a lot more rational than Chinese government too. I wouldn't invest nearly as conservatively as the Chinese government is notorious for doing.

5/15/2007 9:56:41 AM

Quote :

"China is still way behind technologically. On a per-capita basis, I am fairly sure that China will not surpass America this century"

glad to hear that at least...i dont mind if they are the number 1 economy long as the US got their titty when it comes to shit like technology

Quote :

"I wouldn't invest nearly as conservatively as the Chinese government is notorious for doing. "

you make it sound like they are holding themselves back...my next quick question would be why are they holding themselves back?

5/15/2007 10:20:40 AM

I love how you guys are talking to him as if he read or understands anything you're writing.

5/15/2007 10:35:46 AM

lol ya we can't even occupy iraq where we destroyed thier military in 2 weeks and half the country wants us to. nobody in china would want us there.

China is inustrializing and modernizing fast. Their economy has already past our. who cares about per capita? thats just how well off each indidiviudal is and will never get near the us but they are collectivly the largest economy in the world and thier population will continue to grow exponentially. numbers aren't all important in war anymore but they still are important in overal power. nobody could win a ground war with china.

They are allying with iran as we speak so i could see future problems there. them and russia are also bound to have some problems then theres the taiwan thing.

and they do have a strong navy and air force with several carriers and stuff we don't know about because they keep their military things secret.

5/15/2007 10:36:40 AM

^ ignore that post.

Quote :

"Their economy has already past ours"

Here is the GDP numbers for 2006

1 United States 12,455,068
2 Japan 4,533,965
3 Germany 2,794,926
4 People's Republic of China 2,234,297

Our economy is nearly 6 times larger than China's.

Quote :

"who cares about per capita? "

Gee, I don't know? Maybe the fucking citizens of the country? Think about it for a second. Would you rather live in America and drive a Lexus or live in China and be starving right now?

[Edited on May 15, 2007 at 10:42 AM. Reason : a]

5/15/2007 10:42:21 AM

Quote :

"and they do have a strong navy and air force with several carriers and stuff we don't know about because they keep their military things secret"

You have to be a troll, how do you hide an aircraft carrier?

I know it may be hard to believe, but China is far from unified culturally/ethnically. Just because you can't see the differences (they're all chinks right?) doesn't mean they aren't there. 80%+ of the population still lives in what you or I would consider poverty... If you don't think GDP per capita is important than you're an idiot.

China's economy is based off of cheap manufacturing... not exactly a formula for sucess in the 21st century any beyond. Of course they are trying to move away from this, but the vast majority of their exports are still cheap manufactured goods.

They have so many problems that limit their economic potential... Think about the Japanese banking system and how if helped to fuck their economy, then think that China's banking sector is 100x times worse.

5/15/2007 10:58:42 AM

china does have 1 carrier, but it is not operational. Its a half completed soviet era carrier that was sold to them with the clause that it not be made operational. They are supposedly using it as a mock carrier while they design and build their own, which means having an operational carrier will be at least a decade away, and forming a an actual carrier group even farther.

5/15/2007 1:23:23 PM

I think India could give China a run for the money for the next super-economy in the next few decades...

5/15/2007 1:38:50 PM

^I agree. what is India's military like?

5/15/2007 5:48:00 PM

Quote :

"On a per-capita basis, I am fairly sure that China will not surpass America this century; in fact it is quite likely they will never surpass America when it comes to living standards."

If their economy keeps growing has been over the last 50 or so years, they will. It'll be soon, too. Based on past growth, they'll beat us in per capita GDP in a few decades.

5/15/2007 6:02:45 PM

Quote :

"If their economy keeps growing has been over the last 50 or so years, they will. It'll be soon, too. Based on past growth, they'll beat us in per capita GDP in a few decades"

Why in the world would you assume their economic growth would continue at the pace of the last decade for the next 50 years? That just ain't gonna happen.

5/15/2007 7:30:30 PM

Quote :

"^I agree. what is India's military like?"

they are focused on Pakistan and the Western borders right now. They have large military numbers, pretty good weapons technology and great logistics (they did learn alot from the British afterall)

India is a silent but powerful variable in all of this. Their economic growth is just as promising as China's and their population is booming at a faster rate...

Plus, they are opening their markets to the West at a much faster pace and with a helluva lot more free enterprise philosophy. They still have alot of internal ethnic/religious wounds that still need to be mended as well as poverty but they are moving in the right direction.

5/15/2007 7:42:25 PM

Quote :

"China is today what people made Japan out to be in the 80's, according to the hype back then Japan was suppose to own the US by now"

Except that Japan was half the population of the US and at the height of their development. China only has to achieve a fraction of our per capita GDP to outproduce and out-consume us. Even if their standard of living is lower, that makes them the biggest player on international markets.

If you want to make an analogy to Japan, early 1900s is a more appropriate one. They were just emerging from a completely backward economy and undergoing rapid modernization. Like China, they had some internal challenges, but modern economics overcame any growing pains.

They have no religious or cultural stupidities holding back their technological advance. Technological advance cannot do anything but continuously grow the economy. If you want to look for a Chinese fall, find when they stop placing a premium on education and tech transfer.

Technological advance subsumes the niggling problems you mentioned. You are not even bold enough to say that those things will stop their development; you just have innuendo.

I understand your position, though -- It's takes less mental effort to make false analogies rather than to try to analyze reality.

Quote :

"Think about the Japanese banking system and how if helped to fuck their economy, then think that China's banking sector is 100x times worse."

You mean:

"Think about the Japanese banking system and how it helped explode their economy for 40 years then stagnate at a standard of living comparable with the US for 15 years." I'm guessing the chinese would be fine with that. You might as well throw in the Korean and Taiwanese banking systems, too -- such terrible results.

[Edited on May 15, 2007 at 8:50 PM. Reason : sdf]

5/15/2007 8:30:02 PM

Quote :

""^I agree. what is India's military like?""

not sure about their military but i'm sure their 'conquer the world' strat involves not picking up the phone whenever people call in for tech support which leads people to get so frustrated that they kill themselves.

5/15/2007 8:51:39 PM

yeah i'm a big fan of india...i'm glad they are on our side...i'd rather them be on our side than the chinese

Quote :

" Why in the world would you assume their economic growth would continue at the pace of the last decade for the next 50 years? That just ain't gonna happen."

what will happen?

Quote :

"Their economic growth is just as promising as China's and their population is booming at a faster rate... Plus, they are opening their markets to the West at a much faster pace and with a helluva lot more free enterprise philosophy."

<3 india

Quote :

"I understand your position, though -- It's takes less mental effort to make false analogies rather than to try to analyze reality."

nice



so my next question is what qualities that china has does the us need more of?

5/15/2007 8:55:27 PM

5/15/2007 8:59:08 PM

And I'd just like to enumerate some of the "niggling" internal problems that Japan had to overcome from when it opened up to today:

- assassinations of prime ministers
- military takeover of democratic government
- two DECADES at war, including a MOTHERFUCKING WORLD WAR
- complete destruction of all major cities
- TWO switches to completely different forms of government

None of the China's internal problems even come close to what Japan's economic advance overcame.

5/15/2007 9:06:32 PM

Quote :

"Why in the world would you assume their economic growth would continue at the pace of the last decade for the next 50 years? That just ain't gonna happen."

Why not? Other Asian countries have managed to come very close to our standard of living already. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc.

5/15/2007 9:27:48 PM

True. But those are notably urban countries; it takes far less effort to modernize your urban landscape (Japan's rural economy is still backward). However, China is a major resource producer and so it needs to implement technological advancement on a much wider scale to collect the resources needed from the rural landscape.

Most of industrialized Asia is relying upon resources from the mainland United States, Australia, and Canada. This is fine if all you want to do is create a high standard of living for a few hundred million people on the coast. But even we cannot muster enough production for the whole of China. This is why commodity prices are being driven up so high by China's development; it has failed to modernize its internal resource base and thus the rest of us must do so. This is because the communist government is dragging its feet. Last I heard, in China all resources default to state ownership (as opposed to the anglo-saxon tradition of resource ownership falling to the land owner) and many industries, such as oil exploration and extraction, are granted whole to state-run monopolies.

Which is a shame, China could hold more resource wealth than the whole of North America, we will just never know until the Chinese people and western corporations are set lose on the Chinese countryside.

5/15/2007 10:47:05 PM

India holds a lot of potential, but I think they've still got some catching up to do with China in terms of capital, infrastructure, and economic production. Their military is solid, but they've still got their Pakistani problem to deal with. Internally, I believe they have much more division and strife compared to the Chinese as well as a less nimble, more slowly moving government machinery.

Quote :

"They have no religious or cultural stupidities holding back their technological advance. "

I wouldn't say that. Every ethnic group has their eccentricities, and the Chinese are no exception. As far as a Chinese fall, their biggest threat is running out of raw resources before their modernization efforts are complete. Given the size of their country, that's a very real possibility, especially once India gets warmed up.

5/16/2007 12:37:03 AM

Quote :

"Internally, I believe they have much more division and strife compared to the Chinese as well as a less nimble, more slowly moving government machinery."

China has huge divisions and strife, the Communists just keep a tight cap on it. They crack down hard (ie kill) dissidents and no one ever hears about half the crap that goes on.

India has been moving away from a government run and controlled economy much faster than China. So it shouldn't really matter how slow moving their machinery is. China is the epitome of big and slow government.

5/16/2007 7:00:22 AM