Economy Logs Brisk 3.9 Percent Growth

Quote :

"WASHINGTON - The economy picked up speed in the summer, growing at a brisk 3.9 percent pace, the fastest in 1 1/2 years and an impressive performance even as a credit crunch plunged the housing market deeper into turmoil. The latest snapshot of the country's economic health, released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, suggested the economy is proving resilient and holding up well despite strains in the housing and credit markets. Those problems intensified during the third quarter and rocked Wall Street. A second report from the department showed construction spending rose 0.3 percent in September, the best showing in four months. All-time high spending in both commercial construction by private builders and government projects more than offset weakness in home building. For the entire July through September period, individuals increased spending. U.S. businesses sold more goods abroad and boosted some investment at home. Those were main factors helping to push up overall economic activity during that period. The third quarter growth rate was up slightly from a 3.8 percent pace for the three previous months. It marked the strongest showing since the first quarter of last year. The increase in gross domestic product exceeded analysts' forecasts for a 3.1 percent growth rate for third quarter. Gross domestic product is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness. The White House was pleased that problems in housing did not spread widely through other parts of the economy during the summer as some feared. 'This is an extremely resilient economy,' said Ed Lazear, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. 'It is really quite remarkable.'"

Quote :

"Consumers, whose spending is an important ingredient for the economy's good health, actually rediscovered their appetite to spend in the third quarter. Their spending rose at a 3 percent pace, a considerable improvement from the second quarter's rather weak 1.4 percent growth rate. One of the reasons why people are continuing to spend is because the nation's employment climate has managed to stay fairly sturdy through all the problems. Wage and job gains have served as shock absorbers for some of the negative forces of the housing slump, weaker home prices and more restrictive credit. Another report from the Labor Department showed employers' costs to hire and retain workers rose 0.8 percent in the July-to-September quarter. That was down a bit from a 0.9 percent increase posted in the second quarter, but still suggested workers are seeing solid compensation gains. Businesses, meanwhile, increased their spending on equipment and software at a 5.9 percent pace in the third quarter, the strongest in 1 1/2 years. They also boosted their investment in inventories, another factor that added to GDP. Strong sales of U.S. exports to foreign buyers was another big factor in the good third-quarter showing. Exports grew by 16.2 percent, on an annualized basis, during the quarter. That was the biggest increase since the final quarter of 2003. Business investment in commercial structures, such as office buildings and factories, grew at a 12.3 percent pace in the third quarter. It was a robust showing but down from a sizzling 26.2 percent growth rate in the second quarter. Government spending also contributed to third quarter GDP growth. Such spending rose at a rate of 3.7 percent, following a 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/10/31/ap4286372.html

I know that, like Iraq, some here are invested in the defeat of the U.S. economy, but the economy apparently has other ideas. The good news just keeps rolling in.

11/2/2007 1:54:29 PM

Must be the Democratic congress

11/2/2007 1:56:44 PM

Quote :

"I know that, like Iraq, some here are invested in the defeat of the U.S. economy, but the economy apparently has other ideas. The good news just keeps rolling in."

who on this board?

11/2/2007 1:59:15 PM

Quote :

"Yesterday, as the dollar fell to new record lows and oil and gold prices surged to new highs, Wall Street remained fixated on wholly meaningless government data that managed to report the lowest inflation in the last half century. These bizarre numbers were integral in allowing the Commerce Department to report 3.9% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, which was heralded by the bulls as evidence that a resilient U.S. economy had shrugged off the problems in the housing and mortgage markets. However, the government’s ability to make “economic growth” magically appear is based purely on statistical finesse. To arrive at this rate, the government had to assume that inflation during the quarter ran at an annualized rate of .8% (that’s less than 1%). That is the lowest rate of inflation used to calculate U.S. GDP since the Eisenhower administration. With oil priced at almost $100 per barrel, gold futures trading over $800 per ounce, the dollar hitting record lows, and the Fed printing money like it is going out of style, the government has the nerve to claim that current inflation is the lowest it has been in half a century. Unbelievable! Just in case there is some confusion, the government adjusts nominal GDP gains using the GDP deflator, which represents the inflation rate during the time period being measured. This is done to strip inflation out of the GDP calculation so that only real growth gets counted: not nominal gains that result purely from inflation. The consensus estimate for 3rd quarter GDP growth was 3.4%. The reason we beat that number was that the government adjusted the nominal 4.7% gain by a mere .8%. Had the government assumed a higher rate of inflation, say 2.6% (identical to the rate used to deflate second quarter GDP,) the 3rd quarter gain would have been only 2.1%, well shy of the consensus forecast. My guess is that inflation is actually running at an annualized rate closer to 10%. Therefore using a more honest deflator, the U.S. economy is actually contracting, which would explain the recent anecdotal evidence provided by various economic polls, voter dissatisfaction and consumer sentiment numbers. In fact, if one simply measures U.S. GDP using gold or any other currency, it is clear that we are already in a recession."

http://www.europac.net

[Edited on November 2, 2007 at 2:04 PM. Reason : /]

11/2/2007 2:03:37 PM

^^yeah, for real.....you push dislike for bush as wishing ill will on our country, just like the admin does.

[Edited on November 2, 2007 at 2:06 PM. Reason : .]

11/2/2007 2:06:15 PM

^^and i'd like to hear what hooksaw has to say about that

11/2/2007 2:14:24 PM

Quote :

"The good news just keeps rolling in."

only if you take the numbers theyre giving us at face value. like other people have pointed out there is a lot that goes into that number that is more important than the final number itself. and most of those do NOT contain good news 'rolling in' all the time. far from it.

[Edited on November 2, 2007 at 2:18 PM. Reason : ]

11/2/2007 2:17:00 PM

hooksaw is just another crazy fanatic.

11/2/2007 2:18:55 PM

Quote :

"^^and i'd like to hear what hooksaw has to say about that "

That I hate America.

I took steps to protect myself from the dollar slide long-term as an investment decision, and after just two weeks it's paid off. When it comes to money, your savings, and what you earn, if you have to bet against the American economy, just do it. I'm fairly certain the people that run this country - Democrats, Republicans, their campaign donors, and the rest of the rich - already have.

11/2/2007 2:21:21 PM

Quote :

"who on this board?"

11/2/2007 2:28:54 PM

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheFedDigsUsADeeperHole.aspx

11/5/2007 8:36:21 AM

I no longer trust the economic indicators that are published by our government.

11/5/2007 8:40:01 AM

So what does this mean for me? Should I clear out my current investments and my savings/checking account? What should I do with my money?

11/5/2007 9:02:32 AM

Wrap it in tin-foil and keep it in your fridge.

11/5/2007 9:20:20 AM

invest in foreign currencies

11/5/2007 10:05:32 AM

Quote :

"who on this board?"

11/5/2007 1:28:03 PM

hooksaw really left this thread with a quickness

11/5/2007 1:54:16 PM

^ No the hell I didn't, man--I can't be in every thread simultaneously.

In any event, here goes:

1. Did you notice that the piece in question by Peter Schiff was in the "commentary" section of the Web site? That means it's opinion. The news story that I posted was quoted from the AP in Forbes.

2. The following are some interesting bits of information about Schiff's background:

Quote :

"Schiff is known for his extremely bearish views on the United States stock market, bond market, the US dollar, and the United States economy in general for which he has earned the nickname 'Dr. Doom' [emphasis added]. He is also credited as a contributor to his father's 1985 book, 'The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax'. His father, Irwin Schiff, was convicted to a jail sentence for protesting the income tax."

Quote :

"In an August 2006 interview Schiff generated much controversy when he repeated his long-held investment thesis: 'The United States economy is like the Titanic and I am here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship ...I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States.' Recent financial conditions have lead to a surge in popularity for the most pessimistic financial prognosticators [emphasis added]."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff

In addition--from your link--Schiff's brand new book is titled Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse. Hell, if he predicts "crisis" long enough, maybe one day he'll be right.

Yeah, you picked a real unbiased source there, Flyin Ryan. GG!



DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM!!!1

[Edited on November 6, 2007 at 3:33 AM. Reason : I had to do it. ]

11/6/2007 3:27:31 AM

Quote :

"My guess is that inflation is actually running at an annualized rate closer to 10%."

uhhhhhhhh...

yeah.

ok.

11/6/2007 3:34:12 AM

^

Quote :

"guess"

I think you've pinpointed the problem.

11/6/2007 3:37:18 AM

Anyone who claims that has no legitimacy in my mind economic or financial purposes.

There would be panic in the streets if we had 10% annualized inflation.

11/6/2007 4:01:56 AM

^^^ Go find an inflation index that includes food and energy.

And don't take my word or Peter Schiff's for it. Scroll down this article and click on every article detailing why the Fortune 500 companies and others are losing money and why they are increasing prices. There's 8 or so articles from the Wall Street Journal and New York Times among others that highlight companies across the spectrum and what the massive inflation going on is doing to them.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/11/oil-at-96-fed-s.html

And hooksaw, I told you this before. You post on this board to get in dick-waving contests more than anything. In this case though, I'd like you to continue being ignorant on this issue. You see, whether one is rich, middle-class, or poor is not based on how much they make, but how much they make compared to those around him or her. So if you don't wish to protect yourself from this, I don't give a s***, if you choose to get poorer on your own accord it's no skin off my back, it gives me a better opportunity to make even more money compared to my peers. This is not an issue on whether it's happening or not, it's an issue of whether the American public knows about it and their action will determine the ultimate direction of the economy. Right now, as your original post showed, they are ignorant cause they don't realize a 3.9% GDP expansion was mainly inflation.

11/6/2007 6:05:57 AM

Quote :

"who on this board?"

11/6/2007 9:01:47 AM

^^ Come on, you do realize that GDP is adjusted for inflation, right?

You may have a good argument somewhere, but that is plain wrong.

11/6/2007 9:12:18 AM

Quote :

"Go find an inflation index that includes food and energy."

It is only inflation if the costs of food and energy production are increasing in like with prices. We know they are not because profits in these industries are setting records, growing in line with the price increases.

As such, price increases in two industries is NOT inflation, it is profit taking.

11/6/2007 9:34:35 AM

Quote :

"It is only inflation if the costs of food and energy production are increasing in like with prices. We know they are not because profits in these industries are setting records, growing in line with the price increases."

So increases in the cost of fuel can't drive inflation?

11/6/2007 10:45:11 AM

he's talking about the difference between cost and price.

an increase in the cost of fuel will cause inflation.
an increase in the price of fuel is either 1) an indication of of the increase in cost of fuel, and therefore inflation, or 2) profit taking by the fuel sellers, and therefore not "real" inflation

11/6/2007 10:48:51 AM

THE CANADIAN DOLLAR IS BEATING US!!!

WTTTTTFFFFFF

11/6/2007 10:53:31 AM

Quote :

"And don't take my word or Peter Schiff's for it."

Flyin Ryan

Thanks--I won't. I think it's quite clear that your position and Peter "Debbie Downer" Schiff's position have been debunked.

BTW, I find it damned peculiar that you brought up the subject of "dick-waving." Please stop bringing penis images into a discussion about the U.S. economy.

11/6/2007 1:20:41 PM

Quote :

"So increases in the cost of fuel can't drive inflation?"

Economists always believed it could; in fact, that was a classical example given in most economics classes of how inflation would spread throughout an economy. However, recent history has contradicted such theories. It seems higher oil prices do not drive inflation in any real sense because in most of the economy higher prices are either eaten by individuals which are incapable of passing it on (companies unable to drive prices up accrue losses; consumers paying more for gasoline are unable to demand higher wages to compensate) or the factor is a tiny fraction of total costs (if transportation is only 4% of the price of an item then doubling transportation costs will only drive up the price 4%).

In other words, all that has happened is cash has been shifted from consumers of oil to producers of oil. The true scarcity of that cash has not changed as core inflation is only 1%. To put it another way, inflation is permanent, profit taking is not. As corn production soars and oil consumption stagnates food prices and oil prices will fall back to their inflation adjusted long term average. What you will see then is inflation statistics which include food and energy will be negative, proclaiming a period of deflation, while inflation statistics excluding food and energy will still be the long term average of about 2%.

11/6/2007 2:06:06 PM

Quote :

"Thanks--I won't. I think it's quite clear that your position and Peter "Debbie Downer" Schiff's position have been debunked."

You say debunked. I say it's a bet against the economy I made at a casino and I think it will pay off in 3-6 months. That's really all the stock market is, one big casino where people bet the price will go up or down.

So you can't say I've been debunked when I made investments that I think will make me a big profit in 90 days or so. If the economy is worse, I will make money. That's my way of looking at it. The issue of "the American economy is getting worse" is really a question of semantics to you on which you'll never be convinced cause that would mean you would admit on this forum that you were wrong. I've never seen you admit you're wrong on this forum, which goes to the type of individual you are at heart.

Increases in price on my investment which go up when the economy worsens (very high decoupling correlation between price and wellness of U.S. economy) has already made me break even after just two weeks. Had to pay carrying costs and all that. I made an investment decision and put my money where my mouth is. That's the ultimate goal of success - profits - not some argument from the Mike Gravel of the Wolf Web.

Quote :

"BTW, I find it damned peculiar that you brought up the subject of "dick-waving." Please stop bringing penis images into a discussion about the U.S. economy."

Which is actually quite fitting, cause if someone asked me for a proper adjective for the U.S. economy, my response would be "castrated".

If you promise in the future to not be a partisan in your arguments and promise to be objective, I promise to not use the subject of "dick-waving" in response to your posts.

[Edited on November 6, 2007 at 4:44 PM. Reason : /]

11/6/2007 4:20:21 PM

LoneSnark

11/6/2007 4:43:06 PM

Quote :

"invest in foreign currencies"

LOL, by the time the idiots on this board catch on to economic trends and start giving investment tips, you know that a bubble is about to burst.

People investing in foreign currency or gold at this stage are probably the same people who dumped massive amounts of money into real estate at the tail end of the housing boom.

11/6/2007 9:07:43 PM

^^^ Your accusation of "partisan" arguments is laughable. What party am I arguing for? And even if I were doing so, are members of parties not allowed to take positions on economic issues?

You quoted Peter Schiff as a primary supporting source for your position. I have clearly demonstrated that Schiff holds "extremely bearish views on the United States stock market, bond market, the US dollar, and the United States economy in general for which he has earned the nickname 'Dr. Doom.'" In what way is Schiff's commentary, which you parrot, "objective"?

Are you actually calling me the "Mike Gravel" of TWW? If so, this demonstrates beyond any reasonable doubt that you have no idea what you're talking about--and even my detractors here can confirm that Gravel and I are polar opposites.

And now you've gone from bringing dicks into the discussion to balls ("castrated"). Well, the package is complete for you, I suppose. Are these images of male genitalia in your head often?

BTW, sarijoul, you seem to have "left this thread with a quickness."

11/7/2007 5:11:21 AM

Quote :

"People investing in foreign currency or gold at this stage are probably the same people who dumped massive amounts of money into real estate at the tail end of the housing boom."

good analogy

11/7/2007 5:21:06 AM

China's central bank announces they are going to diversify their foreign reserves of $1.43 trillion. Which is code for they are going to pull out of dollars and buy currencies that are not losing as much value. The U.S. dollar promptly fell against all 16 major-trading currencies.

The American dollar is now at its lowest level against the Canadian dollar since we pulled out of the gold standard in 1973 (where exchange rates were fixed). $1.1040 = $1CDN.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...=aMPLuto8wxK4&

[Edited on November 7, 2007 at 8:55 AM. Reason : ed]

11/7/2007 8:51:40 AM

Lonesnark will be here soon to spin this for us.

11/7/2007 10:25:58 AM

Bad time to travel overseas.

11/7/2007 10:30:17 AM

I remember China announcing that a long time ago.

Chance, what spin do you want? If simply pointing out that a weak dollar is not going to result in economic ruin is "spin" then so be it.

I predict the dollar will fall further during the next year or two. After that the trade imbalance will have shrunk dramatically and the dollar will begin rising. Then, over the following decade the dollar will overshoot Purchasing Power Parity with its trading partners as it did in 2001 and then begin falling again.

This is how things work with flexible exchange rates. It is nothing new, as anyone with any understanding of economic history would understand.

11/7/2007 12:40:50 PM

Quote :

"I predict the dollar will fall further during the next year or two. After that the trade imbalance will have shrunk dramatically and the dollar will begin rising."

And what does this mean for consumers? Goods coming from China aren't as cheap any more? Cars coming from Japan aren't as cheap any more?

11/7/2007 4:23:12 PM

the consumers can go to hell for all i care

i'll be fucking glad they dont spend so much money on dumb shit...fancy ass tv's and cars every 2 years and ipods

11/7/2007 4:34:03 PM

Quote :

"I predict the dollar will fall further during the next year or two"

or until we quit increasing the money supply to pay for Iraq.

11/7/2007 4:34:38 PM

i always thought if the dems were in charge they would just use the money thats going to iraq on social programs?

thats what i was always told by republicans i think

11/7/2007 4:37:13 PM

GO AWAY YOU RETARDED BABBLING BUFFOON.

11/7/2007 4:44:27 PM

obligatory "go away troll"

11/7/2007 4:59:07 PM

I am not trolling you. However, lets consider this

You have nothing to contribute to this section. Never have, never will.

So

If you are concerned with being trolled

you'll have no problems staying out of this section.

All parties are happy.


If that is too difficult for you to understand then you should log out immediately.

11/7/2007 5:27:20 PM

back to the topic

i read like 2 words before i realized not to read it

11/7/2007 5:41:15 PM

Quote :

"LOL, by the time the idiots on this board catch on to economic trends and start giving investment tips, you know that a bubble is about to burst. People investing in foreign currency or gold at this stage are probably the same people who dumped massive amounts of money into real estate at the tail end of the housing boom."

well ive been about 90% in gold and the rest in the euro since about 2004

i just want people to keep driving up the price

11/7/2007 5:45:38 PM

DOW down 361 points today (2.64%). Oil will hit $100 a barrel tomorrow.

11/7/2007 5:53:38 PM

⇒

11/7/2007 8:30:08 PM