https://umconnect.umn.edu/chan

presentation is around 15 minutes long but is chilling


searched for related threads, but they are too old to bump

the only thing that that keeps H5N1 from becoming a pandemic is that its not easily transmissible from person to person, yet.

current H5N1 case mortality rate is 70% it was only 33% in 1997 when it first made international news


Dr Margaret Chan tells it exactly like it is... the stark reality of the situation

[Edited on December 10, 2007 at 12:07 AM. Reason : The great influenza is a good read for those interested in the 1918 flu]

12/10/2007 12:07:06 AM

There's nothing I hate more than webpages that autoresize with your permission.

12/10/2007 2:04:59 AM

you can disable that in Firefox, IIRC>

12/10/2007 2:06:08 AM

I'm not afraid of no stinkin bird flu.

Quit with your fearmongering.

12/10/2007 2:17:48 AM

This was more interesting when the topic was Ebola and the actor was Dustin Hoffman.

12/10/2007 2:59:25 AM

yeah, it was a good movie, but influenza will happen.


it happens on average 3 times per century, we are due.

some people will be the walking dead when they get to the hospital(they will already be blue) nothing can be done for them

some will be sick as shit and may or may not live even if they have access to and oscillator(high frequency ventilator used for acute respiratory distress syndrome) btw Duke only has about 8 oscillators for the entire hospital.

the third group will be the people who will be sick for weeks but will get better and be immune.
Skilled NURSING will save these people.


AND its pretty much a crap shoot as to who will be in each group.


I will say that in 1918 the case fatality rate was highest among our age group


the nursing shortage will become even worse becaus most of the nurses aren't going to show up to work, and a large percentage of nurses and doctors are going to die at work


[Edited on December 10, 2007 at 4:52 AM. Reason : .]



http://www.youtube.com/v/3K8KvHxh1VI&rel=1



[Edited on December 10, 2007 at 5:03 AM. Reason : .]

12/10/2007 4:49:50 AM

Quote :

"some people will be the walking dead when they get to the hospital(they will already be blue) nothing can be done for them some will be sick as shit and may or may not live even if they have access to and oscillator(high frequency ventilator used for acute respiratory distress syndrome) btw Duke only has about 8 oscillators for the entire hospital. the third group will be the people who will be sick for weeks but will get better and be immune."

you forgot the fourth group:

people like me who don't get the flu

I haven't had the flu in almost 20 years, and I haven't had a flu shot in about as long

I'm around people who have it, including kids, and I don't catch it

people don't appear to catch it from me, so I don't think I'm a "passive carrier" or whatever

oh, and I've boycotted the use of anti-bacterial soaps and other products for over 10 years

(although I do have good handwashing habits)



I mean, I understand that the flu is a big deal and everything

but I personally don't worry about it at all

except, of course, for what would happen to society if nearly everyone was sick at once

kinda like preparing for a hurricane or winter storm....just worse

12/10/2007 5:46:56 AM

Quote :

"people don't appear to catch it from me, so I don't think I'm a "passive carrier" or whatever"

you do know it's a virus that mutates all the time, right? I think "you can run, but you can't hide" certainly applies here. Especially given that there is no down side to getting a flu shot (except a slightly sore arm for a day), it's kind of silly not to.

12/10/2007 6:06:26 AM

Quote :

"there is no down side to getting a flu shot (except a slightly sore arm for a day"

o'rly?

12/10/2007 6:47:54 AM

^ yes, haven't you heard vaccines are almost never harmful to your health. Don't question it. The government says so. And even if they're not, its for the greater good so you should feel ashamed...[\sarcasm]

12/10/2007 7:22:03 AM

We're due for a population correction anyway. If a few of the genetically less desireable elements die off, so be it; and I say this will full acceptance that I could be one of those who die. *shrug*

12/10/2007 7:40:27 AM

oh right, i forgot. the government is just trying to control us all with vaccines and spread their own infectious diseases throughout the population

seriously - find me a credible study or case where modern vaccines have caused more harm then they've prevented, or where the flu vaccine has, i don't know, killed more than the 30,000 Americans who die from the flue each year.

12/10/2007 8:21:48 AM

death is underrated

12/10/2007 8:43:47 AM

buy stock on coffin manufacturers, got it.

12/10/2007 9:03:55 AM

^^^There is some speculation and have been some studies that suggest that the much higher rates of autism today could be due, in part, to child vaccinations. Nothing conclusive, though.

I was looking for some links to back that up and all I could find were studies that said although early signs of autism show up around the time children are given the MMR vaccination, there have been no links found. Nothing to see here.

[Edited on December 10, 2007 at 9:59 AM. Reason : d]

12/10/2007 9:49:32 AM

Quote :

"30,000 Americans who die from the flue each year."

95% of those are old people with weakened immune systems from other illnesses or failing organs.


The Bird Flu could become an epidemic in some 3rd world country. Hell, China and India could get severely fucked. But here in America we have things like flu shots, the CDC, and a rudimentary understanding of hiegene, which separates us from all those chinamen.

If there is a breakout, it will start in Asia or Africa. And if by chance it jumps across the pond, the CDC will act quickly to quarantine the infected area. It's not like a deadly flu bug could just suddenly infect the entire country.

12/10/2007 12:05:39 PM

Quote :

"and a rudimentary understanding of hiegene"

ftw.

12/10/2007 12:19:51 PM

Quote :

"But here in America we have things like flu shots"

err... you do know that the flu shot you go this fall isn't going to protect you from bird flu, should you come in contact with it, right?

other than that the OP is doing nothing more than falling prey to fearmongering.

12/10/2007 12:46:48 PM

Quote :

"people like me who don't get the flu I haven't had the flu in almost 20 years, and I haven't had a flu shot in about as long I'm around people who have it, including kids, and I don't catch it people don't appear to catch it from me, so I don't think I'm a "passive carrier" or whatever"

same here bro, although i knock on wood. I have been getting my flu shot though since coming to college just in case.

unfourtuantly i always seem to be prone to strept throat and for some reason the last few summers I have caught a cold.

Quote :

"We're due for a population correction anyway. If a few of the genetically less desireable elements die off, so be it; and I say this will full acceptance that I could be one of those who die. *shrug*"

yeah you are right. Katrina helped out some. The rebuilt New Orleans is a much safer place.

12/10/2007 1:15:03 PM

Things we have going for us:
-Hygiene difference (we got showers, soap, and we know how to use them regularly)
-Safer food (wait, the FDA does something good?)
-Geographic Isolation (Atlantic & Pacific ftw)
-High Quality Medical Care (paging Dr. IWentToMedSchoolInTheUS)
-Leading Parmacutical Companies (Never thought I'd be happy to have GSK down the road)
-Comparatively Low Population Density (Goto Asia and you too can be a Sardine!)

I think that we, as US citizens, will likely not feel the immediate brunt of whatever the next outbreak will be. One would think that the most probable scenario would involve a highly dense populated area of the globe with poor sanitation, little to no available medical care, horrible food and water quality, and no access to drugs and vaccinations.

China and India spring to mind as extremely dense populations.

Africa, China and SE Asia qualify for the sanitation and medical care parts of the equation.

Island countries, and those that are isolated from the rest of the world (the Americas) will quarantine themselves as soon as something vastly threatening starts to appear. It may suck, but its the responsible thing to do for the population.

The downstream effects would be felt worldwide. Huge loss of life, interruption of production and agriculture, a whole new slew of regulations, restrictions, vaccinations and research.

Just don't forget that thinning out the population is a part of the natural cycle of life as its been observed.

12/10/2007 1:24:39 PM

Quote :

"Geographic Isolation "

you are an idiot. Geographic isolation virtually does not exist in the modern world. In my division alone at my work we've had employees all over china, Malaysia, and lund in the last 2 weeks

12/10/2007 1:33:05 PM

Quote :

"^^^There is some speculation and have been some studies that suggest that the much higher rates of autism today could be due, in part, to child vaccinations. Nothing conclusive, though. I was looking for some links to back that up and all I could find were studies that said although early signs of autism show up around the time children are given the MMR vaccination, there have been no links found. Nothing to see here."

even though you retracted the remark, i'll still comment. Specifically w/r/t the rising rates of Autism, most doctors/scientists agree that this is because 1) the criteria for being diagnosed with autism has been significantly relaxed in the past several years and 2) overall awareness of the condition has led to more doctors being aware of and looking for signs of autism, which also leads to over diagnoses (like ADHD).
The people who try to make connections between vaccinations and conditions like autism are generally just anti-government conspiracy theorists who are trying to discredit the government and turn them into the bad guys. They don't like the MMR vaccine for whatever reason, so they just look for some medical condition that has been on the rise since they started MMR, then try to find a connection between the two using dubious science and non-existent causal relationships. People have also tried to blame the rise of (diagnoses of) autism to widespread wi-fi. It's like they just say to themselves "what has changed in the past 10 years that could lead to more autism. ..... oh i know! there was no wi-fi in 1997!! That must be it!"

12/10/2007 1:54:40 PM

HUR, I understand that you're saying people from the US freely work/visit the areas that I listed, however I'm not sure you're looking at this from the right perspective.

It's a lot easier for a disease to transcend national borders when the countries in question share proximity. Birds (the current example is an avian flu, right?) can fly b/t Mongolia, China, Russia, etc a lot easier than they can from China to California. Masses of people can traverse the same examples with the same level of ease.

In your mind, would it be easier to completely stop all travel across a land border, or say "Ok, no one flies to/from that country anymore."? I'd point to the effectiveness in controlling our own southern border as a good example.

If you got the impression I was implying our geographic isolation = being completely safe, that's not the way it was intended, nor is it what I said.

And yes, geographic isolation DOES exist in the modern world, and rather effectively I might add. Do you have a cat or dog? Tried taking it to Australia, Japan, Great Britain, etc? All are perfect examples of geographically isolated quarantine procedures for biological reasons.

12/10/2007 2:03:02 PM

Quote :

"BobbyDigital: other than that the OP is doing nothing more than falling prey to fearmongering."

True.

But some authorities believe that this fearmongering is necessary. They believe that it will happen and that we need to be scared of it, so that when it does happen, we act right. There's some concern that, when it does happen, Americans will be too cavalier, will not obey legitimate advice from the medical community, and will be infected in larger numbers as a result.

12/10/2007 2:38:59 PM

anyone here work for a large drug company?

12/10/2007 5:02:13 PM

no, but i work for a company that designs a very large percentage of all the plants that research and mass produce new drugs

12/10/2007 5:04:07 PM

Look.. we're all busy being scared over Global Warming and Terrorists.... this will just have to wait.

12/10/2007 7:52:01 PM

Quote :

"95% of those are old people with weakened immune systems from other illnesses or failing organs. The Bird Flu could become an epidemic in some 3rd world country. Hell, China and India could get severely fucked. But here in America we have things like flu shots, the CDC, and a rudimentary understanding of hiegene, which separates us from all those chinamen. If there is a breakout, it will start in Asia or Africa. And if by chance it jumps across the pond, the CDC will act quickly to quarantine the infected area. It's not like a deadly flu bug could just suddenly infect the entire country. "

your naivete makes my brain hurt

Quote :

"Things we have going for us: -Hygiene difference (we got showers, soap, and we know how to use them regularly) -Safer food (wait, the FDA does something good?) -Geographic Isolation (Atlantic & Pacific ftw) -High Quality Medical Care (paging Dr. IWentToMedSchoolInTheUS) -Leading Parmacutical Companies (Never thought I'd be happy to have GSK down the road) -Comparatively Low Population Density (Goto Asia and you too can be a Sardine!) I think that we, as US citizens, will likely not feel the immediate brunt of whatever the next outbreak will be. One would think that the most probable scenario would involve a highly dense populated area of the globe with poor sanitation, little to no available medical care, horrible food and water quality, and no access to drugs and vaccinations. China and India spring to mind as extremely dense populations. Africa, China and SE Asia qualify for the sanitation and medical care parts of the equation. Island countries, and those that are isolated from the rest of the world (the Americas) will quarantine themselves as soon as something vastly threatening starts to appear. It may suck, but its the responsible thing to do for the population. The downstream effects would be felt worldwide. Huge loss of life, interruption of production and agriculture, a whole new slew of regulations, restrictions, vaccinations and research. Just don't forget that thinning out the population is a part of the natural cycle of life as its been observed."

guess what? the 1918 pandemic started in kansas... not spain


it took 6 months for the last pandemic to circle the globe.

with air travel the first wave will circle the globe in 3 months

modern medicine will not save you... there are not even enough regular ventilators available for flu victims... this isnt fear mongering its fact... during the 1999-2000 flu season, hospitals were inundated from seasonal flu patients.

Quote :

"But some authorities believe that this fearmongering is necessary. They believe that it will happen and that we need to be scared of it, so that when it does happen, we act right. There's some concern that, when it does happen, Americans will be too cavalier, will not obey legitimate advice from the medical community, and will be infected in larger numbers as a result. "

exactly... http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

basically says stock 3 months of food, save yourselves because we(your govt) cant


john barry, the guy that wrote The Great Epidemic.... he isnt even going to use tamiflu, he knows it will be useless. he says nothing worked then, nothing will work now. he is going to hole up in his home with his family and try to ride it out.


and based on the attitudes in this thread from supposedly educated people... Americans will be too cavalier. They will not prepare ahead of time and when it gets here you will freak out and rush to the hospital, but there will be no beds available. And there sure as hell wont be a ventilator for you.(The resp therapist is off of the floor right now or i would find out how many regular ventilators duke has)


im not fearmongering... I am in healtcare and i studied poultry science(including avian diseases) ive seen what Highly pathogenic avian influenza does to chickens, the same thing it does to us.

At this point, i think its a good idea to educate yourselves.


Remember what happens during ice storms, will this will be like a 3-6 month ice storm, no power(sick/dead people cant run the plant) same for water, sewer, phone, all public utilities and services will shut down from lack of manpower. This is the point the government is trying to make.
Not everyone will die, but the economy will be shit for the survivors. I am guessing your VISA card will be useless too. we will go back to a cash and barter system.

We are too soft, too complacent and too reliant on technology.

oh, dont forget the looters.

12/10/2007 8:57:26 PM

Duke has around 100 regular vents available


and the population of the triangle is?



get the point now?

12/10/2007 9:01:06 PM

Quote :

"Are you prepared?"

personally no because there really isnt anything that can be done about viruses in the time frame that the flu works

as a society, we continually fuck ourselves with all this antibacterial nonsense

it is unnecessary

12/10/2007 9:16:18 PM

Quote :

"There's some concern that, when it does happen, Americans will be too cavalier, will not obey legitimate advice from the medical community, and will be infected in larger numbers as a result."

If americans will be cavalier and ignore legitimate advice, the medical community has no one to blame but themselves for it's use of scare tactics and at times outright lies and deception.

Quote :

"get the point now? "

What is the point? If the mortality rate is 70% now, under good conditions with good care, what would preparing for an inevitable epidemic do? Prolong your survival another 3 days?

12/10/2007 9:21:39 PM

I actually worked on the flu threat fairly extensively in Boettcher's National Security class.

Quote :

"people like me who don't get the flu I haven't had the flu in almost 20 years, and I haven't had a flu shot in about as long I'm around people who have it, including kids, and I don't catch it people don't appear to catch it from me, so I don't think I'm a "passive carrier" or whatever"

There isn't some innate immunological superiority to you. You, like many Americans, have been lucky. There's no reason whatsoever to believe that you'd waltz through a pandemic unscathed, and even if you didn't get sick there are the societal problems you alluded to.

Quote :

"The Bird Flu could become an epidemic in some 3rd world country. Hell, China and India could get severely fucked. But here in America we have things like flu shots, the CDC, and a rudimentary understanding of hiegene, which separates us from all those chinamen."

When the pandemic inevitably happens it will be because we're giving out the wrong flu shot. The flu mutates on a regular basis; hence the need for yearly flu shots. But those shots are in large part based on scientists' prediction on what the mutation will be. If they guess wrong, we've got a bunch of sick people who got useless shots, and a hell of a lag time before we can ramp up production of an effective vaccine for the rest of the population.

Hygiene and the CDC (and other forms of government intervention) will keep things from getting as bad as they did in 1918, probably. That's all that can be said for it. Hygiene only does so much unless you want to be obsessive-compulsive about it, to the point that you're not really all that functional in society anymore anyway.

Quote :

"-Leading Parmacutical Companies (Never thought I'd be happy to have GSK down the road)"

I'll get the numbers out of my report later (they're not on this comp), but America is woefully lacking in capacity to produce flu shots. You'll remember the shortages of it we've had? Yeah. Having the companies is great, but they pay relatively very little attention to the flu.

As for "low population density" and "geographic isolation," neither of there are relevant anymore, having been negated by the speed and frequency of travel both internationally and within the country. The only time they'll come into play is if things are really fucked; it would facilitate quarantines, but these would be devastating.

Quote :

" guess what? the 1918 pandemic started in kansas... not spain"

I had thought that it originated in military camps in Europe towards the end of the war, enabling the doughboys to bring it back to the US. Europe was certainly hit hard before we were.

---

My secondary concern to the immediate loss of life from a pandemic will be the social upheaval, especially in urban areas where panic will combine with large numbers to result in all manner of unpleasantness. With school and business closings widespread there will be plenty of people with little to do but sit in their room, either terrified, bored, or both.

---

I suppose you can call it fearmongering if you like, but pending some major advance in the treatment of viruses and/or respiratory conditions another flu pandemic is next to inevitable within our lifetime. I don't feel like I'm fearmongering because I am convinced that there's really not anything to be done about it. Things are what they are. No point in worrying about it. All I would recommend is having a good disaster survival plan, the same kind of thing that would come in handy in the case of Hurricane Katrina, nuclear war, or zombie uprising.

12/10/2007 9:30:30 PM

Any banter on pandemics is fear mongering. Go ahead and spread the FEAR. When people start selling of their stocks during doomsday; I'll gobble them up and be rich when 2 months later everyone realizes it was a hoax.

12/10/2007 9:46:37 PM

Any discussion of pandemics is fearmongering?

12/10/2007 9:51:52 PM

Quote :

"I suppose you can call it fearmongering if you like, but pending some major advance in the treatment of viruses and/or respiratory conditions another flu pandemic is next to inevitable within our lifetime. I don't feel like I'm fearmongering because I am convinced that there's really not anything to be done about it. Things are what they are. No point in worrying about it. All I would recommend is having a good disaster survival plan, the same kind of thing that would come in handy in the case of Hurricane Katrina, nuclear war, or zombie uprising."

My feelings too, basically. If this is gonna happen, there is absolutely nothing I will be able to do to stop it. There might be some precautions I could take to lessen the risk of getting it, but it's the flu, come on... you can't completely avoid it all the time. If it happens I'm just gonna bank on my current good health to get me through it and if I don't, oh well, there wasn't anything I could have done to stop it anyway.

12/10/2007 10:45:51 PM

my main point is to prepare for it as if it were a natural disaster

only prepare for 3 months, the first wave will last about that long. The second wave will be worse from a pathological standpoint but whatever.


im saying avoid the hospitals, the people who survived the 1918 flu did so because of good supportive nursing care, mainly keeping them hydrated, ANYONE can do this if they take the time to educate themselves on how to do it properly. You can take care of your sick family members with mostly OTC medication.

state of the art med care wont save flu victims this time... and most nurses will choose to stay home and care for their loved ones rather than risk exposure at work because we dont have enough personal protective equipment to keep ourselves safe.


As in most situations people with common sense, a plan, and actually take the threat seriously will inherit the earth(after the flu is done with it)

12/10/2007 11:20:21 PM

Quote :

"my main point is to prepare for it as if it were a natural disaster "

Yeah, and I'm saying that anybody with the means to do so should have general preparations for any kind of natural disaster, just on principle. I don't have three months of stuff specifically stored up, but I do have a "bug-out bag" with several days worth of food and various other things. This strikes me as being just good sense. Once I have the financial means, one of my first goals is to fill out a stockpile.

12/10/2007 11:27:24 PM

Quote :

"We're due for a population correction anyway. If a few of the genetically less desireable elements die off, so be it; and I say this will full acceptance that I could be one of those who die. *shrug*"

oh, christ man, you aren't serious are you? genetic predisposition has nothing to do with susceptibility to flu pandemics.

flu pandemics are a crapshoot, and it's fucking serious business. the old and the young are most susceptible. i hope it doesnt take the death of your child, sibling, or parent to help you have a little fucking compassion.

that said, i'm not worrying about it much myself... 1918 was a long fuckin time ago. I just make sure my wife and kid get a vaccine every year. some protection is better than none.

12/10/2007 11:38:25 PM

Where's that thread about what your plan is when shit hits the fan?

12/10/2007 11:50:20 PM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22192270/
Fearmongering alarmism or genuine threat? Not sure this illness really deserves an article on the front page of MSNBC.

12/11/2007 2:51:46 AM

Quote :

" All I would recommend is having a good disaster survival plan, the same kind of thing that would come in handy in the case of Hurricane Katrina, nuclear war, or zombie uprising."

I can almost feel the saliva dripping from your mouth at the thought of living in such a world

12/11/2007 2:58:44 AM

Thankfully my family has a nice little farm we can retreat to. Complete with land, guns, plenty of wildlife to shoot, place to grow crops...etc.

12/11/2007 3:02:37 AM

Wouldn't happen to have any chickens there, would ya?

12/11/2007 3:03:51 AM

Nope. Plenty of deer to shoot, too. Even saw a bear once.

12/11/2007 3:05:12 AM

No, because of the bird.... nevermind.

12/11/2007 3:06:31 AM

12/11/2007 3:09:46 AM

^^ What happens then if we're attacked with bird flu, foot and mouth disease, AND mad cow/wasting at the same time?

your farm does you no good. Plus, it just makes you a bigger target for the looting/pillaging

12/11/2007 3:11:00 AM

Quote :

"Plus, it just makes you a bigger target for the looting/pillaging"

That's what the guns are for.

12/11/2007 3:13:33 AM

the FDA has asked N95 respirator manufacturers like 3M to make an N95 for the general public, these will be available next year.

they will have instructions on how to fit them properly.


so its a step in the right direction

12/11/2007 4:43:03 AM

^^^Having a place to escape to, a way to sustain yourself, and plenty of options for self-defense is important.

This ain't no joke, dude.

I've got a place to go where food practically grows naturally, access to self-defense materials, and a ton of those simple how-to survival books from the '70s. Even if my city ass is stuck up in the mountains alone, I can read my way through surviving.

12/11/2007 5:37:04 AM