Anyone else getting the feeling that Florida is setting up to be critical for the Feb 5th primaries?

My take:

McCain: If McCain wins he will be all but unstoppable. Winning a (semi) Southern, crucial in general election, no-independents-allowed state will give him massive momentum, and he will likely win almost all the big Feb 5 states, with Romney grabbing a few, and a couple small states to Huckabee. At the least it will make a clear two candidate race between him and Romney.

Giuliani: He has to separate himself from McCain and Romney. Even if he takes a close second to Huckabee that is fine as long as there is separation between 2nd and 3rd. He needs at least NY, and probably 3 of the other 4 Northeast states (DE,CT,NJ,MA) - and that only happens if he becomes major news. If he can do that, then he can look towards a 2/12 sweep opportunity of DC, VA, and MD.

Huckabee: Needs to show he can win again. He'll pick up some of the smaller states on Feb 5, but not CA, NY, or the Northeastern states. Thompson staying in the race is really hurting Huckabee. His best hope is probably a win and a 4th place finish by McCain, to gain momentum over him in states like Tennessee and Missouri.

Romney: Beat McCain by as much as possible. A bad performance by McCain is probably even more helpful that a win. If he wins and McCain is 2, it should be a close two person race going into Feb 5.

1/21/2008 6:03:17 PM

Guliani is campaigning to win the Republican Party by winning the Northeast (and Florida)... I do not see how anyone thinks this is even close to being a rational or successful strategy. Since when has the Northeast been especially relevant to the GOP? ...Or at least relevant enough to overcome the 4th, 5th, and 6th place finishes we've seen so far from him?

1/21/2008 6:56:13 PM

He's not a particularly strong candidate. That doesn't really help.

1/21/2008 11:15:02 PM

^ lucky for him none of the GOP candidates are considered very strong, w/ McCain maybe being the lone exception

1/22/2008 12:50:34 AM

Thompson just dropped out...incase that turn events is shocking to anyone on here

1/22/2008 2:31:33 PM

he could've been a great candidate

1/22/2008 2:40:55 PM

He didn't want it. I don't want someone who doesn't want to do the work it takes to be president to be given the job.

^^ you sonofabitch, I thought I had the drop on that news

1/22/2008 2:43:39 PM

Could've, would've, should've....

I agree, he didn't want it bad enough

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 2:51 PM. Reason : ^ oh, and watch it ]

1/22/2008 2:47:53 PM

Im curious why you consider mccain to be a strong candidate? He is running as a republican you know.

1/22/2008 3:05:14 PM

thanks for the analysis on where ron paul fits in all this slamjamason

1/22/2008 6:51:34 PM

^^

1/22/2008 7:02:44 PM

^because he rolls eyes? I can understand why dems like him. After all he barely won two states that allowed dems and independants to vote in repub primaries. A prez election between two liberals is probably very appealing to you duke.

For the rest of you republicans, why do you like mccain? I am very curious.

1/22/2008 7:11:44 PM

Quote :

"After all he barely won two states that allowed dems and independants to vote in repub primaries."

^ Are you retarded? That means his electability overall is higher than the other ones.

1/22/2008 7:19:38 PM

its like this eyedrb,

guliani has a bigger hard-on for Iraq than GW--if that's possible.
romney's positions change with the wind. also, he believes in magic underwear.
huckster panders to the religious, and mostly crazy, right
paul is awesome in nearly every way, but does not have a true shot

So that leaves mccain, who although he still is in favor of this ridiculous war, at least believes that we shouldn't have done it halfassed if we were gonna do it. He also believes in smaller government and doesn't favor some unrealistic holocaust style round up of illegal aliens.

To preempt those who will respond that mccain also has changed position, I can only say that his "flip flops" if you can call them that are typically more expounding on a general point rather than complete changes in position. Besides Paul, he may very well be the only principled person of the group.

At any rate, I won't be voting for McCain in the primaries and I likely won't vote for him in the general election provided there is a third party candidate I like, but I can see why he would be liked by most of the libertarian/moderate set over all of the republican candidates.

1/22/2008 7:27:18 PM

^^^^^ I didn't include Thompson either becuase they both had/have, in my view, less than a 1% chance of winning the nomination.

Ron Paul will stay relevant if either Guiliani or Huckabee can stay strong and we get to the Nomination all split up. There, clearly, he will hold influence if no two other candidates can or choose to team up Pres & VP to gain threshhold.

I'm not sure he is directly hurting any one candidate by staying in - McCain maybe?

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 7:28 PM. Reason : One more ^]

1/22/2008 7:28:03 PM

Jo, thanks for your response. I just dont see the appeal that he may have to a republican base. He voted agaisnt the bush tax cut, for amnesty, did the campaign reform which limited free speech and really helped dems.

THe only thing I like about the guy is his earmarks and line item veto.

420, seriously man. Dems voted for him during a REPUBLICAN primary. No way they would vote for him over a more liberal democrat during a general. Stop kidding yourself.

1/22/2008 7:36:32 PM

Quote :

"After all he barely won two states that allowed dems and independants to vote in repub primaries."

Your words, not mine. You can tell they're yours because it's independents is spelled wrong...

1/22/2008 7:38:26 PM

^haha. true.

Despite my spelling errors, you telling me dems would vote for mccain over Hill or Hussein? No way.

1/22/2008 7:47:05 PM

Some dems might vote for McCain. Bush pretty much destroyed any chance of getting a large number to vote for him though. I can guarantee that any of the other candidates would get about 5 dem votes total and maybe double that for independents. It's pretty much impossible to win the election without independent votes.

1/22/2008 8:04:41 PM

^^It's common knowledge that McCain is more electable than any of the other GOP candidates, who hold little or no appeal for crucial independent and swing voters. And like it or not, most republicans will fall in line if McCain is nominated.

We all know that you don't like McCain, but don't let your hatred cloud your vision.

PS your hatred of McCain's "amnesty" proposal is misplaced. The problem is the ridiculous wait times, fees and requirements to legally come into this country, not the people who have chosen to break those rules in search of the American dream.

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 9:35 PM. Reason : 2]

1/22/2008 9:31:20 PM

If McCain is nominated and Republicans are unhappy about it, the biggest problem for the GOP will be matching Democratic turnout

1/22/2008 9:47:25 PM

I really dont see how mccain can win the republican nominee.

You guys might be right about getting some independents though.

I just dont like him, you are correct. He is just like a democrat and changes his stance often.

Im hoping he doesnt get the nod for the repubs. Who knows, I was certainly wrong about the last idiot I helped elect.

1/22/2008 10:40:07 PM

romney - flip flopper
huckabee - extremely religious john edwards
giuliani - wore a dress


mccain is the best.

1/22/2008 10:45:00 PM

^ you're a retard. I offer no evidence other than this claim.

1/22/2008 10:46:46 PM

Quote :

"I can understand why dems like him. After all he barely won two states that allowed dems and independants to vote in repub primaries. A prez election between two liberals is probably very appealing to you duke. "

I have never understood why Dems like him, other than he's not a partisan hack and is a good dude and straight shooter by politician standards.

and I guess I can't win...I get accused of pandering to conservatives every time I suspend someone who leans to the left, yet here I am getting accused of being liberal, myself.

It would be laughable except that the GOP is in such a sad state that the party faithful are considering people like ME liberals (something Goldwater lamented Bob Dole--that they were considered the new liberals of the GOP).

Quote :

"He voted agaisnt the bush tax cut, for amnesty, did the campaign reform which limited free speech and really helped dems. THe only thing I like about the guy is his earmarks and line item veto."

He voted against the "Bush tax cuts" on the grounds that they refused to enact corresponding cuts in spending.

Immigration isn't really a hot button for me. While I don't want 100% amnesty, I lean more that direction than towards this absurd xenophobic witch hunt kick that so many people in the GOP are inexplicably rallying for.

As far as McCain-Feingold, well, it may not be a perfect solution, but the way things worked before that bill were sure as shit not any better.

Quote :

"It's common knowledge that McCain is more electable than any of the other GOP candidates"

Yep, my reasons for backing him are not because I'm trying to get aboard the only ship that isn't sinking, but it shouldn't be forgotten that he's the ONLY Republican candidate who matches or beats the Dems in general election polling.

Quote :

"PS your hatred of McCain's "amnesty" proposal is misplaced. The problem is the ridiculous wait times, fees and requirements to legally come into this country, not the people who have chosen to break those rules in search of the American dream. "

I don't agree 100% with this line of thinking, but I agree with the greater point that you're getting at.

Quote :

"I really dont see how mccain can win the republican nominee. "

Quote :

"he is just like a democrat and changes his stance often"

I will be surprised if he DOESN'T get the nod. Romney is the only real threat to him, and I think McCain has most of the advantages over him, save money.

and this idea that he is a RINO that you and others seem to have is either (a) completely ricockulous, or (b) telling about what sort of rotten state the GOP has declined into, or (c) both

[Edited on January 22, 2008 at 11:01 PM. Reason : asdfsad]

1/22/2008 10:56:18 PM

^^ please see the smackdown thread

1/22/2008 11:01:33 PM

McCain: "it's pretty clear that they consider me their most formidable opponent, and I agree with them."


haha, there ought to be a thread just for this dude's quotes. He does not give a shit--he will say anything.

[Edited on January 23, 2008 at 2:40 AM. Reason : asfd]

1/23/2008 2:40:21 AM

romney- flip flopper
huckabee- too religious
mccain- old but definitely the strongest candidate, and willing to work with dems
guilliani- untrustworthy liberal

1/23/2008 9:42:03 AM

romney- flip flopper, most conservative who still has a chance
huckabee- flip flopper, too religious DONE
mccain- flip flopper, old but definitely the strongest candidate, and willing to work with a dem
guilliani- flip flopper, untrustworthy liberal DONE

there, fixed that for ya

[Edited on January 23, 2008 at 11:23 AM. Reason : .]

1/23/2008 11:22:01 AM

i would probably vote for mccain over hillary

1/23/2008 11:52:54 AM

I like McCain on just about everything. I like how he's not a douchebag like half of the candidates. I'm just fine with his economic and energy policies. There's only one spot where I will NEVER agree with him

The war.

1/23/2008 12:14:17 PM

Quote :

"romney- flip flopper, most conservative who still has a chance huckabee- flip flopper, too religious DONE mccain- flip flopper, old but definitely the strongest candidate, and willing to work with a dem guilliani- flip flopper, untrustworthy liberal DONE"

So true.

1/23/2008 2:26:34 PM